916 resultados para Logistic regression mixture models
Resumo:
Habitat use by Sharp-tailed Tyrant (Culicivora caudacuta), and Cock-tailed Tyrant (Alectrurus tricolor) in the Cerrado of Southeastern Brazil. Obligatory grassland birds are dependent on a limited set of native habitats that are disappearing almost everywhere. We examined the use of macrohabitat and microhabitat by two threatened species of flycatchers, the Sharp-tailed Tyrant, Culicivora caudacuta and the Cock-tailed Tyrant, Alectrurus tricolor in a preserved area of cerrado. We generated logistic regression models to explain the presence of these species through variables of microhabitat. Both flycatchers occurred mainly in grassland areas and favored areas with a low density of palms (Attalea geraensis) and trees. The Sharp-tailed Tyrant also favored areas with a high density of low shrubs (< 1 m) and less exposed soil. The positive relationship found between the presence of Sharp-tailed Tyrant and soil cover may indicate the importance of litter and understory vegetation for shelter and food. The conservation of both flycatcher species in the study area should benefit from controlling palm density and the maintenance of grasslands with low shrubs.
Resumo:
Many recent survival studies propose modeling data with a cure fraction, i.e., data in which part of the population is not susceptible to the event of interest. This event may occur more than once for the same individual (recurrent event). We then have a scenario of recurrent event data in the presence of a cure fraction, which may appear in various areas such as oncology, finance, industries, among others. This paper proposes a multiple time scale survival model to analyze recurrent events using a cure fraction. The objective is analyzing the efficiency of certain interventions so that the studied event will not happen again in terms of covariates and censoring. All estimates were obtained using a sampling-based approach, which allows information to be input beforehand with lower computational effort. Simulations were done based on a clinical scenario in order to observe some frequentist properties of the estimation procedure in the presence of small and moderate sample sizes. An application of a well-known set of real mammary tumor data is provided.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence and vulnerability of homeless people to HIV infection. METHODS: Cross-sectional study conducted with a non-probabilistic sample of 1,405 homeless users of shelters in the city of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil, from 2006 to 2007. They were all tested for HIV and a structured questionnaire was applied. Their vulnerability to HIV was determined by the frequency of condom use: those who reported using condoms only occasionally or never were considered the most vulnerable. Multinomial and logistic regression models were used to estimate effect measures and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: There was a predominance of males (85.6%), with a mean age of 40.9 years, 72.0% had complete elementary schooling, and 71.5% were non-white. Of all respondents, 15.7% reported being homosexual or bisexual and 62,0% reported having casual sex. The mean number of sexual partners in the last 12 months was 5.4. More than half (55.7%) of the respondents reported lifetime drug use, while 25.7% reported frequent use. Sexually-transmitted disease was reported by 39.6% of the homeless and 38.3% reported always using condoms. The prevalence of HIV infection was 4.9% (17.4% also tested positive for syphilis) and about half of the respondents (55.4%) had access to prevention programs. Higher HIV prevalence was associated with younger age (18-29 years, OR = 4.0 [95% CI 1.54; 10.46]); past history of sexually-transmitted disease (OR = 3.3 [95% CI 1.87; 5.73]); homosexual sex (OR = 3.0 [95% CI 1.28; 6.92]); and syphilis (OR = 2.4 [95% CI 1.13; 4.93]). Increased vulnerability to HIV infection was associated with being female; young; homosexual sex; having few partners or a steady partner; drug and alcohol use; not having access to prevention programs and social support. CONCLUSIONS: The HIV epidemic has a major impact on homeless people reflecting a cycle of exclusion, social vulnerability, and limited access to prevention.
Resumo:
Background: Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has increased as the initial revascularization strategy in chronic coronary artery disease. Consequently, more patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) have history of coronary stent. Objective: Evaluate the impact of previous PCI on in-hospital mortality after CABG in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease. Methods: Between May/2007 and June/2009, 1099 consecutive patients underwent CABG on cardiopulmonary bypass. Patients with no PCI (n=938, 85.3%) were compared with patients with previous PCI (n=161, 14.6%). Logistic regression models and propensity score matching analysis were used to assess the risk-adjusted impact of previous PCI on in-hospital mortality. Results: Both groups were similar, except for the fact that patients with previous PCI were more likely to have unstable angina (16.1% x 9.9%, p=0.019). In-hospital mortality after CABG was higher in patients with previous PCI (9.3% x 5.1%, p=0.034) and it was comparable with EuroSCORE and 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet risk score. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, previous PCI emerged as an independent predictor of postoperative in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.94, 95% CI 1.02-3.68, p=0.044) as strong as diabetes (odds ratio 1.86, 95% CI 1.07-3.24, p=0.028). After computed propensity score matching based on preoperative risk factors, in-hospital mortality remained higher among patients with previous PCI (odds ratio 3.46, 95% CI 1.10-10.93, p=0.034). Conclusions: Previous PCI in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease is an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality after CABG. This fact must be considered when PCI is indicated as initial alternative in patients with more severe coronary artery disease. (Arq Bras Cardiol 2012;99(1):586-595)
Resumo:
Objective: To estimate the frequency of anaemia in pregnant women before and after the fortification of flours with Fe. Design: Retrospective study developed from secondary data obtained from medical records. Setting: Two health units in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Subjects: Socio-economic, demographic, obstetric and Hb concentration data were collected of 778 pregnant women attending prenatal care. Two study groups were created: the first referred to the period before fortification (G1, n 391), including women whose parturition happened before June 2004; and the second referred to the period after fortification (G2, n 387), including women whose last menstrual cycle happened after June 2005. The Hb cut-off point adopted for anaemia diagnosis was <11.0 g/dl. Results: In linear regression models, when Hb concentration was expressed as a dependent variable, women in G2 presented Hb concentration 0.26 g/dl and 0.36 g/dl higher during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy, respectively, compared with G1. In logistic regression models where the dependent variable was anaemia during the second and third trimesters, it was verified that being a member of G2 was a protective factor against anaemia in the third trimester. Regarding the presence of anaemia at any gestational moment, it was verified that being a member of G2 represented a protective factor against anaemia during pregnancy. Conclusions: Results indicate the protective effect of the fortification of flours with Fe in the fight against gestational anaemia, contributing to prevention and control of this nutritional disorder among pregnant women.
Resumo:
This study identified the prevalence and prevalence and predictors of fatigue in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. Cross-sectional study with 157 adult CRC outpatients (age 60 +/- 11.7 years; 54% male; cancer stage IV 44.8%). The Piper Fatigue Scale-revised was used to assess fatigue scores. Socio-demographic, clinical, depression, performance status, pain and sleep disturbance data were assessed. Associations between fatigue and these data were analyzed through logistic regression models. Fatigue was reported by 26.8% patients. Logistic regression identified three predictors: depression (OR: 4.2; 95%CI 1.68-10.39), performance status (OR: 3.2; 95%CI 1.37-7.51) and sleep disturbance (OR: 3.2; 95%CI 1.30-8.09). When all predictors were present, the probability of fatigue occurrence was 80%; when none were present, the probability was 8%. The model's specificity and sensitivity were 81.9% and 58.6%, respectively. Through the assessment of depression, performance status and sleep disturbance, the probability of fatigue occurrence can be estimated, and preventive and treatment strategies can be rapidly implemented in clinical practice.
Resumo:
Objective: to investigate factors associated with repeat pregnancies among adolescents in a tertiary hospital in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Background: Teenage mothers present a high risk of repeat pregnancies during adolescence. Most of these pregnancies are unplanned. Methods: A cross-sectional study conducted in a tertiary hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The study population included 745 first-time pregnancies and 170 two or more times pregnant teenagers hospitalised for childbirth. Logistic regression models were used to identify independent factors associated with repeat pregnancy in this population. Results: Older age at first pregnancy was associated with a decreased risk of repeat pregnancies (odds ratio and 95% confidence interval 0.78 (0.68-0.89)). Prenatal examinations (0.13 (0.05-0.32)), higher education (0.83 (0.76-0.91)) and higher monthly income (0.79 (0.67-0.95)) were also protective against repeat pregnancies. Those who used contraceptives (2.76 (1.80-4.21)) and lived with their partners (2.44 (1.53-3.88)) had an increased risk of becoming pregnant more than once. Conclusion: Preventive programmes aiming to avoid repeat pregnancies in adolescents should not be restricted to the transmission of information. Behavioural changes in family planning must include access not only to adequate information but also to adequate healthcare, contraceptive methods, education and training.
Resumo:
Background: To investigate indocyanine green angiography (ICGA) findings in patients with long-standing Vogt-Koyanagi-Harada (VKH) disease and their correlation with disease activity on clinical examination as well as with systemic corticosteroid therapy. Methods: Twenty-eight patients (51 eyes) with long-standing (>= 6 months from disease onset) VKH disease whose treatment was tapered based only in clinical features were prospectively included at a single center in Brazil. All patients underwent standardized clinical evaluation, which included fundus photography, fluorescein angiography and ICGA. Clinical disease activity was determined based in the Standardization in Uveitis Nomenclature Working Group. Fisher exact test and logistic regression models were used for statistical analysis. Results: Disease-related choroidal inflammation on ICGA was observed in 72.5% (31 of 51 eyes). Angiographic findings suggestive of (choroidal and/or retinal) disease activity were not observed on FA. Clinically active disease based on clinical evaluation was observed in 41.2% (21 of 51 eyes). In these 21 eyes, disease-related choroidal inflammation on ICGA was observed in 76.2% (16 of 21 eyes); in the remaining eyes (without clinical active disease) disease-related choroidal inflammation on ICGA was observed in 70.0% (21 of 30 eyes). In respect to systemic corticosteroid therapy, 10 patients (18 of 51 eyes) were under treatment with prednisone. In these 10 (18 of 51 eyes) patients, disease-related choroidal inflammation on ICGA was observed in 83.3% (15 of 18 eyes); in the remaining patients (33 of 51 eyes) disease-related choroidal inflammation on ICGA was observed in 66.7% (22 of 33 eyes). Conclusion: ICGA findings suggestive of disease-related choroidal inflammation were observed in a considerable proportion of patients with long-standing VKH disease, independent of the inflammatory status of the disease on clinical examination or current use of systemic corticosteroid. Therefore, the current study reinforces the crucial role of ICGA to assist the management and treatment of patients with long-standing VKH disease.
Resumo:
Background. The intrafamilial dynamics of endemic infection with human herpesvirus type 8 (HHV-8) in Amerindian populations is unknown. Methods. Serum samples were obtained from 517 Amerindians and tested for HHV-8 anti-latent nuclear antigen (anti-LANA) and antilytic antibodies by immunofluorescence assays. Logistic regression and mixed logistic models were used to estimate the odds of being HHV-8 seropositive among intrafamilial pairs. Results. HHV-8 seroprevalence by either assay was 75.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 71.5%-79.1%), and it was age-dependent (P-trend<.001). Familial dependence in HHV-8 seroprevalence by either assay was found between mother-offspring (odds ratio [OR], 5.44; 95% CI: 1.62-18.28) and siblings aged >= 10 years (OR 4.42, 95% CI: 1.70-11.45) or siblings in close age range (<5 years difference) (OR 3.37, 95% CI: 1.21-9.40), or in families with large (>4) number of siblings (OR, 3.20, 95% CI: 1.33-7.67). In separate analyses by serological assay, there was strong dependence in mother-offspring (OR 8.94, 95% CI: 2.94-27.23) and sibling pairs aged >= 10 years (OR, 11.91, 95% CI: 2.23-63.64) measured by LANA but not lytic antibodies. Conclusions. This pattern of familial dependence suggests that, in this endemic population, HHV-8 transmission mainly occurs from mother to offspring and between close siblings during early childhood, probably via saliva. The mother to offspring dependence was derived chiefly from anti-LANA antibodies.
Resumo:
Background. Lung transplantation has become a standard procedure for some end-stage lung diseases, but primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is an inherent problem that impacts early and late outcomes. The aim of this study was to define the incidence, risk factors, and impact of mechanical ventilation time on mortality rates among a retrospective cohort of lung transplantations performed in a single institution. Methods. We performed a retrospective study of 118 lung transplantations performed between January 2003 and July 2010. The most severe form of PGD (grade III) as defined at 48 and 72 hours was examined for risk factors by multivariable logistic regression models using donor, recipient, and transplant variables. Results. The overall incidence of PGD at 48 hours was 19.8%, and 15.4% at 72 hours. According multivariate analysis, risk factors associated with PGD were donor smoking history for 48 hours (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 4.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.236-18.896; P = .022) and older donors for 72 hours (adjusted OR, 1.046; 95% CI, 0.997-1.098; P = .022). The operative mortality was 52.9% among patients with PGD versus 20.3% at 48 hours (P = .012). At 72 hours, the mortality rate was 58.3% versus 21.2% (P = .013). The 90-days mortality was also higher among patients with PGD. The mechanical ventilation time was longer in patients with PGD III at 48 hours namely, a mean time of 72 versus 24 hours (P = .001). When PGD was defined at 72 hours, the mean ventilation time was even longer, namely 151 versus 24 hours (P < .001). The mean overall survival for patients who developed PGD at 48 hours was 490.9 versus 1665.5 days for subjects without PGD (P = .001). Considering PGD only at 72 hours, the mean survival was 177.7 days for the PGD group and 1628.9 days for the other patients (P < .001). Conclusion. PGD showed an important impacts on operative and 90-day mortality rates, mechanical ventilation time, and overall survival among lung transplant patients. PGD at 72 hours was a better predictor of lung transplant outcomes than at 48 hours. The use of donors with a smoking history or of advanced age were risk factors for the development of PGD.
Resumo:
Trichoepithelioma is a benign neoplasm that shares both clinical and histological features with basal cell carcinoma. It is important to distinguish these neoplasms because they require different clinical behavior and therapeutic planning. Many studies have addressed the use of immunohistochemistry to improve the differential diagnosis of these tumors. These studies present conflicting results when addressing the same markers, probably owing to the small number of basaloid tumors that comprised their studies, which generally did not exceed 50 cases. We built a tissue microarray with 162 trichoepithelioma and 328 basal cell carcinoma biopsies and tested a panel of immune markers composed of CD34, CD10, epithelial membrane antigen, Bcl-2, cytokeratins 15 and 20 and D2-40. The results were analyzed using multiple linear and logistic regression models. This analysis revealed a model that could differentiate trichoepithelioma from basal cell carcinoma in 36% of the cases. The panel of immunohistochemical markers required to differentiate between these tumors was composed of CD10, cytokeratin 15, cytokeratin 20 and D2-40. The results obtained in this work were generated from a large number of biopsies and resulted in the confirmation of overlapping epithelial and stromal immunohistochemical profiles from these basaloid tumors. The results also corroborate the point of view that trichoepithelioma and basal cell carcinoma tumors represent two different points in the differentiation of a single cell type. Despite the use of panels of immune markers, histopathological criteria associated with clinical data certainly remain the best guideline for the differential diagnosis of trichoepithelioma and basal cell carcinoma. Modern Pathology (2012) 25, 1345-1353; doi: 10.1038/modpathol.2012.96; published online 8 June 2012
Resumo:
Purpose: Refractory frontal lobe epilepsy (FLE) remains one of the most challenging surgically remediable epilepsy syndromes. Nevertheless, definition of independent predictors and predictive models of postsurgical seizure outcome remains poorly explored in FLE. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from 70 consecutive patients with refractory FLE submitted to surgical treatment at our center from July 1994 to December 2006. Univariate results were submitted to logistic regression models and Cox proportional hazards regression to identify isolated risk factors for poor surgical results and to construct predictive models for surgical outcome in FLE. Results: From 70 patients submitted to surgery, 45 patients (64%) had favorable outcome and 37 (47%) became seizure free. Isolated risk factors for poor surgical outcome are expressed in hazard ratio (H.R.) and were time of epilepsy (H.R.=4.2; 95% C.I.=.1.5-11.7; p=0.006), ictal EEG recruiting rhythm (H.R. = 2.9; 95% C.I. = 1.1-7.7; p=0.033); normal MRI (H.R. = 4.8; 95% C.I. = 1.4-16.6; p = 0.012), and MRI with lesion involving eloquent cortex (H.R. = 3.8; 95% C.I. = 1.2-12.0; p = 0.021). Based on these variables and using a logistic regression model we constructed a model that correctly predicted long-term surgical outcome in up to 80% of patients. Conclusion: Among independent risk factors for postsurgical seizure outcome, epilepsy duration is a potentially modifiable factor that could impact surgical outcome in FLE. Early diagnosis, presence of an MRI lesion not involving eloquent cortex, and ictal EEG without recruited rhythm independently predicted favorable outcome in this series. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Objectives Predictors of adverse outcomes following myocardial infarction (MI) are well established; however, little is known about what predicts enzymatically estimated infarct size in patients with acute ST-elevation MI. The Complement And Reduction of INfarct size after Angioplasty or Lytics trials of pexelizumab used creatine kinase (CK)-MB area under the curve to determine infarct size in patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or fibrinolysis. Methods Prediction of infarct size was carried out by measuring CK-MB area under the curve in patients with ST-segment elevation MI treated with reperfusion therapy from January 2000 to April 2002. Infarct size was calculated in 1622 patients (PCI=817; fibrinolysis=805). Logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between baseline demographics, total ST-segment elevation, index angiographic findings (PCI group), and binary outcome of CK-MB area under the curve greater than 3000 ng/ml. Results Large infarcts occurred in 63% (515) of the PCI group and 69% (554) of the fibrinolysis group. Independent predictors of large infarcts differed depending on mode of reperfusion. In PCI, male sex, no prior coronary revascularization and diabetes, decreased systolic blood pressure, sum of ST-segment elevation, total (angiographic) occlusion, and nonright coronary artery culprit artery were independent predictors of larger infarcts (C index=0.73). In fibrinolysis, younger age, decreased heart rate, white race, no history of arrhythmia, increased time to fibrinolytic therapy in patients treated up to 2 h after symptom onset, and sum of ST-segment elevation were independently associated with a larger infarct size (C index=0.68). Conclusion Clinical and patient data can be used to predict larger infarcts on the basis of CK-MB quantification. These models may be helpful in designing future trials and in guiding the use of novel pharmacotherapies aimed at limiting infarct size in clinical practice. Coron Artery Dis 23:118-125 (C) 2012 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.
Resumo:
Background: The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of low bone mineral density (BMD) and associated factors in middle-aged breast cancer survivors (BCS). Patients and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 70 BCS of 45-65 years of age undergoing complete oncology treatment. Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with low BMD (osteopenia and osteoporosis taken together as a single group). Results: The mean age of participants was 53.2 +/- 5.9 years. BMD was low at the femoral neck in 28.6% of patients and at the lumbar spine in 45.7%. Body mass index <= 30 kg/m(2) (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 3.43; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0-11.3) and postmenopausal status (OR adjusted 20.42; 95% CI 2.0-201.2) were associated with low BMD at the lumbar spine. Femoral neck measurements, age > 50 years (OR 3.41; 95% CI 1.0-11.6), and time since diagnosis > 50 months (OR adjusted 3.34; 95% CI 1.0-11.3) increased the likelihood of low BMD. Conclusion: These findings show that low BMD is common in middle-aged BCS. Factors were identified that may affect BMD in BCS and should be considered when implementing strategies to minimize bone loss in middle-aged women with breast cancer.
Resumo:
Background Oxidative stress is recognized as a major pathogenic factor of cellular damage caused by hyperglycemia. NOX/NADPH oxidases generate reactive oxygen species and NOX1, NOX2 and NOX4 isoforms are expressed in kidney and require association with subunit p22phox (encoded by the CYBA gene). Increased expression of p22phox was described in animal models of diabetic nephropathy. In the opposite direction, glutathione is one of the main endogenous antioxidants whose plasmatic concentrations were reported to be reduced in diabetes patients. The aim of the present investigation was to test whether functional single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes involved in the generation of NADPH-dependent O2•- (-675 T → A in CYBA, unregistered) and in glutathione metabolism (-129 C → T in GCLC [rs17883901] and -65 T → C in GPX3 [rs8177412]) confer susceptibility to renal disease in type 1 diabetes patients. Methods 401 patients were sorted into two groups according to the presence (n = 104) or absence (n = 196) of overt diabetic nephropathy or according to glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimated by Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation: ≥ 60 mL (n = 265) or < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (n = 136) and were genotyped. Results No differences were found in the frequency of genotypes between diabetic and non-diabetic subjects. The frequency of GFR < 60 mL/min was significantly lower in the group of patients carrying CYBA genotypes T/A+A/A (18.7%) than in the group carrying the T/T genotype (35.3%) (P = 0.0143) and the frequency of GFR < 60 mL/min was significantly higher in the group of patients carrying GCLC genotypes C/T+T/T (47.1%) than in the group carrying the C/C genotype (31.1%) (p = 0.0082). Logistic regression analysis identified the presence of at least one A allele of the CYBA SNP as an independent protection factor against decreased GFR (OR = 0.38, CI95% 0.14-0.88, p = 0.0354) and the presence of at least one T allele of the GCLC rs17883901 SNP as an independent risk factor for decreased GFR (OR = 2.40, CI95% 1.27-4.56, p = 0.0068). Conclusions The functional SNPs CYBA -675 T → A and GCLC rs17883901, probably associated with cellular redox imbalances, modulate the risk for renal disease in the studied population of type 1 diabetes patients and require validation in additional cohorts.