A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Young people's uses of music for well-being

The period between 15 and 25 years is characterised by much personal change and is the peak age of onset of mental health problems. This prompts an interest in everyday strategies that young people might use to support their well-being. Music use is the preferred leisure activity among young people yet little is known about how music is linked to well-being in this population. This study aimed to develop and test a model of the relationships between young people’s use of music and their well-being, drawing on theories from the music psychology and clinical psychology fields. A qualitative analysis of transcripts from focus groups with 11 participants aged 15–25 years revealed four ways in which music listening links with well-being: relationship building, modifying emotions, modifying cognitions and emotional immersion. These linking variables were operationalised using questionnaire scores and tested on a new sample of 107 young people. Results of a multiple mediation analysis revealed that music listening was significantly related to all four linking variables, but not directly related to well-being as measured by the Mental Health Continuum. Nevertheless, the four linking variables indirectly mediated the effect of music listening on social wellbeing. The findings are consistent with earlier research on the role of music in emotion regulation and social connection although there are clearly other factors involved in determining young peoples’ well-being. These findings will help inform music-based interventions for young people.

Eruption centres of the Hamilton area of the Newer Volcanics Province, Victoria, Australia: Pinpointing volcanoes from a multifaceted approach to landform mapping

Volcanic eruption centres of the mostly 4.5 Ma-5000 BP Newer Volcanics Province in the Hamilton area of southeastern Australia were examined in detail using a multifaceted approach, including ground truthing and analysis of ArcGIS Total Magnetic Intensity and seamless geology data, NASA Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) digital elevation models and Google Earth satellite image interpretation. Sixteen eruption centres were recognised in the Hamilton area, including three previously unrecorded volcanoes-one of which, the Cas Maar, constitutes the northernmost maar-cone volcanic complex in the Western Plains subprovince. Seven previously allocated eruption centres were placed into question based on field and laboratory observations. Three phases of volcanic activity have been suggested by other authors and are interpreted to correlate with ages of >4 Ma, ca 2 Ma and <0.5 Ma, which may be further subdivided based on preservation of outcrop. Geochemical compositions of the dominantly basaltic products become increasingly alkaline and enriched in incompatible elements from Phases 1 to 2, with Phase 3 eruptions both covering the entire geochemical range and extending into increasingly enriched compositions. This research highlights the importance of a multifaceted approach to landform mapping and demonstrates that additional volcanic centres may yet be discovered in the Newer Volcanics Province

A workplace-based Participatory Action Research project to investigate the effectiveness of nutrition and physical activity interventions for truck drivers in six Queensland transport industry workplaces: 2012-2015

The Queensland Transport Industry Workplace Health Intervention project was a Participatory Action Research (PAR) project to investigate the effectiveness of workplace-based nutrition and physical activity health promotion interventions for truck drivers in transport industry workplaces in south-east Queensland. The project was conducted by a research team at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT), and was funded by the Queensland Government under the Healthier.Happier.Workplaces initiative.

A kinematic and electromyographic study of grip force

Background The hand is an element of great importance to humans, as it enables us to have different grips. Its analysis, based on an accelerometer and electromyography, is critical in order to determine its operation. The processing and analysis of variables obtained by these devices offer a different approach in functional assessment. Therefore, knowledge of the muscles and elements of the hand in the grip force will offer a better approach for different interventions. Method The functionality of the hand of seven healthy subjects was parameterized and synchronized in real time based on grip force. The AcceleGlove was used to register accelerometric (fingers and palm) values and the Mega ME6000 was used for the surface electromyography and maximum voluntary contraction for the hand and forearm muscles. A computer script based on “R��� and MATLAB software was developed to enable the correct interpretation of the main variables (variation of acceleration and maximum peak value of electromyography). Results The muscles of greater activity in grip was found in the hypothenar region (0.313 ± 0.148%) and the flexor ulnaris carpi (0.360 ± 0.118%), based on maximum voluntary contraction. Reference values in the module vector of the palm have proved an essential element for the identification of the movement phases. The ring and index fingers were the elements with the greatest variation of acceleration in the movement phases. Conclusion: Parameterization of the force grip and fragmentation of the registered data has been made possible due to the development of a technical procedure.

Comparison of IQS and verbal-performance IQ discrepancies estimated from two seven-subtest short forms of the WAIS-R

The present study compared IQs and Verbal-Performance IQ discrepancies estimated from two seven-subtest short forms of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised (WAIS-R) in a sample of 100 subjects referred for neuropsychological assessment. The short forms of Warrington, James, and Maciejewski (1986) and Ward (1990) yielded similar correlation coefficients and absolute error rates with respect to WAIS-R IQs, although the Warrington short form requires more time to administer and score. Both short forms were able to detect significant Verbal-Performance IQ discrepancies 70% of the time. However, they incorrectly yielded significant discrepancies for approximately 25% of the sample who did not have significant differences on the full WAIS-R. The results do not support reporting and interpreting significant Verbal-Performance IQ discrepancies estimated from these short forms.

Understanding past climate variation and environmental change for the future of an iconic landscape – K'gari Fraser Island, Queensland, Australia

The unique combination of landscapes and processes that are present and operate on Fraser Island (K'gari) create a dynamic setting that is capable of recording past environmental events, climate variations and former landscapes. Likewise, its geographic position makes Fraser Island sensitive to those events and processes. Based on optically stimulated luminescence dating, the records archived within the world's largest sand island span a period that has the potential to exceed 750 ka and contain specific records that are of extremely high resolution over the past 40,000 years. This is due to the geographic position of Fraser Island, which lies in the coastal subtropical region of Queensland Australia. Fraser Island is exposed to the open ocean currents of the Coral Sea on the east coast and the waters of Hervey Bay on its western margin and is positioned to receive moisture from the Indo-Australian monsoon, southeast trade winds and experiences occasional tropical and ex-tropical cyclones. We review literature that presents the current level of understanding of sea level change, ecological variation and environmental change on Fraser Island. The previous works illustrate the importance of Fraser Island and may link processes, environments and climates on Fraser Island with global records.

Validity of BMI as a measure of obesity in Australian white Caucasian and Australian Sri Lankan children

Background: Body mass index (BMI) is used to diagnose obesity. However, its ability to predict the percentage fat mass (%FM) reliably is doubtful. Therefore validity of BMI as a diagnostic tool of obesity is questioned. Aim: This study is focused on determining the ability of BMI-based cut-off values in diagnosing obesity among Australian children of white Caucasian and Sri Lankan origin. Subjects and methods: Height and weight was measured and BMI (W/H2) calculated. Total body water was determined by deuterium dilution technique and fat free mass and hence fat mass derived using age- and gender-specific constants. A %FM of 30% for girls and 20% for boys was considered as the criterion cut-off level for obesity. BMI-based obesity cut-offs described by the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF), CDC/NCHS centile charts and BMI-Z were validated against the criterion method. Results: There were 96 white Caucasian and 42 Sri Lankan children. Of the white Caucasians, 19 (36%) girls and 29 (66%) boys, and of the Sri Lankans 7 (46%) girls and 16 (63%) boys, were obese based on %FM. The FM and BMI were closely associated in both Caucasians (r���= 0.81, P<0.001) and Sri Lankans (r���= 0.92, P<0.001). Percentage FM and BMI also had a lower but significant association. Obesity cut-off values recommended by IOTF failed to detect a single case of obesity in either group. However, NCHS and BMI-Z cut-offs detected cases of obesity with low sensitivity. Conclusions: BMI is a poor indicator of percentage fat and the commonly used cut-off values were not sensitive enough to detect cases of childhood obesity in this study. In order to improve the diagnosis of obesity, either BMI cut-off values should be revised to increase the sensitivity or the possibility of using other indirect methods of estimating the %FM should be explored.

The doctrine of necessity and the detention and restraint of people with intellectual impairment: Is there any justification?

In Australia, the legal basis for the detention and restraint of people with intellectual impairment is ad hoc and unclear. There is no comprehensive legal framework that authorises and regulates the detention of, for example, older people with dementia in locked wards or in residential aged care, people with disability in residential services or people with acquired brain injury in hospital and rehabilitation services. This paper focuses on whether the common law doctrine of necessity (or its statutory equivalents) should have a role in permitting the detention and restraint of people with disabilities. Traditionally, the defence of necessity has been recognised as an excuse, where the defendant, faced by a situation of imminent peril, is excused from the criminal or civil liability because of the extraordinary circumstances they find themselves in. In the United Kingdom, however, in In re F (Mental Patient: Sterilisation) and R v Bournewood Community and Mental Health NHS Trust, ex parte L, the House of Lords broadened the defence so that it operated as a justification for treatment, detention and restraint outside of the emergency context. This paper outlines the distinction between necessity as an excuse and as a defence, and identifies a number of concerns with the latter formulation: problems of democracy, integrity, obedience, objectivity and safeguards. Australian courts are urged to reject the United Kingdom approach and retain an excuse-based defence, as the risks of permitting the essentially utilitarian model of necessity as a justification are too great.

Archiving primary data: Solutions for long-term studies

The recent trend for journals to require open access to primary data included in publications has been embraced by many biologists, but has caused apprehension amongst researchers engaged in long-term ecological and evolutionary studies. A worldwide survey of 73 principal investigators (Pls) with long-term studies revealed positive attitudes towards sharing data with the agreement or involvement of the PI, and 93% of PIs have historically shared data. Only 8% were in favor of uncontrolled, open access to primary data while 63% expressed serious concern. We present here their viewpoint on an issue that can have non-trivial scientific consequences. We discuss potential costs of public data archiving and provide possible solutions to meet the needs of journals and researchers.

Fine mapping and replication of genetic risk Loci in primary sclerosing cholangitis

Background and aims. Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease characterized by progressive inflammation and fibrosis of the bile ducts eventually leading to biliary cirrhosis. Recent genetic studies in PSC have identified associations at 2q13, 2q35, 3p21, 4q27, 13q31 and suggestive association at 10p15. The aim of this study was to further characterize and refine the genetic architecture of PSC. Methods. We analyzed previously reported associated SNPs at four of these non-HLA loci and 59 SNPs tagging the IL-2/IL-21 (4q27) and IL2RA (10p15) loci in 992 UK PSC cases and 5162 healthy UK controls. Results. The most associated SNPs identified were rs3197999 (3p21 (MST1), p = 1.9 × 10 -6, OR A vs G = 1.28, 95% CI (1.16-1.42)); rs4147359 (10p15 (IL2RA), p = 2.6 × 10 -4, OR A vs G = 1.20, 95% CI (1.09-1.33)) and rs12511287 (4q27 (IL-2/IL-21), p = 3.0 × 10 -4, OR A vs T = 1.21, 95% CI (1.09-1.35)). In addition, we performed a meta-analysis for selected SNPs using published summary statistics from recent studies. We observed genome-wide significance for rs3197999 (3p21 (MST1), P combined = 3.8 × 10 -12) and rs4147359 (10p15 (IL2RA), P combined = 1.5 × 10 -8). Conclusion. We have for the first time confirmed the association of PSC with genetic variants at 10p15 (IL2RA) locus at genome-wide significance and replicated the associations at MST1 and IL-2/IL-21 loci in a large homogeneous UK population. These results strongly implicate the role of IL-2/IL2RA pathway in PSC and provide further confirmation of MST1 association. © Informa Healthcare.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Analysis and design of beam-shaped rectangular polyrod antennas

Theoretical and experimental investigations on the near field and radiation characteristics show a fairly good agreement which justifies the TE(11)(x) mode of excitation. Eight polyrod antennas of different configurations were built and tested as functions of taper angles, straight and curved axial lengths, and frequency of excitation. It is found that the radiation patterns. cross-polarization level, beamwidth and gain could be controlled not only by the axial length and taper angles but also by shaping the axis of the polyrods in order to realize an optimum design

Bismuth nanolines on Si(001) and their influence on mesoscopic surface structure

Experimental studies of Bi heteroepitaxy on Si(001) have recently uncovered a self-organised nanoline motif which has no detectable width dispersion. The Bi lines can be grown with an aspect ratio that is greater than 350 : 1. This paper describes a study of the nanoline geometry and electronic structure using a combination of scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) and ab initio theoretical methods. In particular, the effect that the lines have on Si(001) surface structure at large length scales, l > 100 nm, is studied. It has been found that Bi line growth on surfaces that have regularly spaced single height steps results in a 'preferred' domain orientation.