Consumption, investment and life insurance strategies with heterogeneous discounting

[cat] En aquest treball s'analitza l'efecte que comporta l'introducció de preferències inconsistents temporalment sobre les decisions òptimes de consum, inversió i compra d'assegurança de vida. En concret, es pretén recollir la creixent importància que un individu dóna a la herència que deixa i a la riquesa disponible per a la seva jubilació al llarg de la seva vida laboral. Amb aquesta finalitat, es parteix d'un model estocàstic en temps continu amb temps final aleatori, i s'introdueix el descompte heterogeni, considerant un agent amb una distribució de vida residual coneguda. Per tal d'obtenir solucions consistents temporalment es resol una equació de programació dinàmica no estàndard. Per al cas de funcions d'utilitat del tipus CRRA i CARA es troben solucions explícites. Finalment, els resultats obtinguts s'il·lustren numèricament.

Consumption, investment and life insurance strategies with heterogeneous discounting

[cat] En aquest treball s'analitza l'efecte que comporta l'introducció de preferències inconsistents temporalment sobre les decisions òptimes de consum, inversió i compra d'assegurança de vida. En concret, es pretén recollir la creixent importància que un individu dóna a la herència que deixa i a la riquesa disponible per a la seva jubilació al llarg de la seva vida laboral. Amb aquesta finalitat, es parteix d'un model estocàstic en temps continu amb temps final aleatori, i s'introdueix el descompte heterogeni, considerant un agent amb una distribució de vida residual coneguda. Per tal d'obtenir solucions consistents temporalment es resol una equació de programació dinàmica no estàndard. Per al cas de funcions d'utilitat del tipus CRRA i CARA es troben solucions explícites. Finalment, els resultats obtinguts s'il·lustren numèricament.

Labor market experience and well-being after firm closure. Survey evidence on displaced manufacturing workers in Switzerland

This study examines how plant closure affected individuals' careers and lives about two years after they lost their job. We analyze the displaced workers' reemployment prospects and study for reemployed workers the characteristics of their new jobs in terms of reemployment sectors, wages, and job quality. Additionally, we inquire how workers' sociability and subjective well-being were affected by job loss. Our analysis is based on our own survey conducted in Switzerland in 2011. The survey included the workforce of five manufacturing companies that had closed down two years earlier. We addressed the risk of biases typically prevailing with observational data by complementing it with register data from the public unemployment insurance. Moreover, we use a control group based on matched data from the Swiss Household Panel. We find that workers experience strongly diverging outcomes after plant closure: on the one hand, high proportions of the workers experience a smooth transition after plant closure. More than two-thirds of the workers returned to employment, more than half of them within less than six months. With respect to their social lives, we find that positive changes in relationships with their spouse, family and friends are more frequent than negative changes. On the other hand, for a small group of workers plant closure had a detrimental effect. Close to twenty percent remained unemployed. About ten percent of the workers were long-term unemployed and subsequently often were reemployed in jobs of lower quality. Unemployed workers and workers who dropped out of the labor force were particularly prone to find their subjective well-being decreasing. The most vulnerable subgroup in our study were workers over 55. This result stands in striking contrast to a large body of literature that considers labor market institutions to be primarily biased against young workers. Our findings show that older workers not only take longer to find a job but are also less likely to return to employment. Moreover, if they manage to find a job, they experience the severest cuts in wages and job quality of all cohorts. From a life-course perspective this result is remarkable since it shows that workers are not protected from hardship in their late careers. In light of the current demographic changes this finding may have important policy implications. -- Cette étude analyse l'impact des fermetures d'entreprises sur les travailleurs licenciés. Plus précisément, nous examinons les chances de réinsertion des travailleurs dans le marché du travail et - pour ceux qui l'ont fait avec succès - dans quels secteurs, pour quels salaires et avec quelle qualité d'emploi ils sont réengagés. Nous nous intéressons également aux répercussions engendrées par la perte de l'emploi sur la sociabilité et le bien-être subjectif des travailleurs concernés. Notre analyse se base sur les données d'une enquête que nous avons menée en 2011. Cette enquête cible le personnel de cinq entreprises industrielles suisses qui avaient fermé leurs portes deux ans auparavant. Pour dépasser les biais typiques liés aux données d'observation, nous utilisons en complément des données administratives issues de l'assurance chômage publique. De plus, nous utilisons un groupe de contrôle basé sur des données appariées provenant du Panel Suisse de Ménage. Nos analyses montrent des résultats fortement contrastés. D'un côté, la majeure partie des travailleurs ont vécu une transition professionnelle plutôt facile : plus des deux tiers des personnes ont retrouvé un travail et parmi elles plus de la moitié en moins de six mois. Par rapport aux relations sociales, tant avec leur partenaire, qu'avec les membres de leur famille et leurs amis, les changements expérimentés étaient plus fréquemment positifs que négatifs. De l'autre côté, cependant, pour une petite partie de travailleurs la fermeture de leur entreprise a eu des conséquences très négatives sur leur carrière et leur bien-être. Au moment de notre enquête, presque vingt pourcents des travailleurs étaient au chômage. Les personnes au chômage et celles qui avaient quitté le marché du travail ont été particulièrement affectées par une diminution de leur bien-être subjectif. Les plus vulnérables parmi les travailleurs licenciés étaient ceux qui étaient âgés de plus de 55 ans. Notre analyse montre que les travailleurs âgés ont beaucoup moins fréquemment retrouvé un travail. Pour les personnes de plus de 55 ans qui ont tout de même retrouvé un emploi, la réinsertion a durée plus longtemps, les pertes de salaire étaient plus conséquentes et la diminution de la qualité de l'emploi plus grande que pour les autres cohortes. Au vu des changements démographiques actuels, ce résultat interpellant peut avoir des implications politiques importantes.

Growth, unemployment and wage inertia

We introduce wage setting via efficiency wages in the neoclassical one-sector growth model to study the growth effects of wage inertia. We compare the dynamic equilibrium of an economy with wage inertia with the equilibrium of an economy without it. We show that wage inertia affects the long run employment rate and that the transitional dynamics of the main economic variables will be different because wages are a state variable when wage inertia is introduced. In particular, we show that the model with wage inertia can explain some growth patterns that cannot be explained when wages are flexible. We also study the growth effects of permanent technological and fiscal policy shocks in these two economies.

The regional distribution of unemployment. What do micro-data tell us?

Regional disparities in unemployment rates are large and persistent. The literature provides evidence of their magnitude and evolution, as well as evidence of the role of certain economic, demographic and environmental factors in explaining the gap between regions of low and high unemployment. Most of these studies, however, adopt an aggregate approach and so do not account for the individual characteristics of the unemployed and employed in each region. This paper, by drawing on micro-data from the Spanish wave of the Labour Force Survey, seeks to remedy this shortcoming by analysing regional differentials in unemployment rates. An appropriate decomposition of the regional gap in the average probability of being unemployed enables us to distinguish between the contribution of differences in the regional distribution of individual characteristics from that attributable to a different impact of these characteristics on the probability of unemployment. Our results suggest that the well-documented disparities in regional unemployment are not just the result of regional heterogeneity in the distribution of individual characteristics. Non-negligible differences in the probability of unemployment remain after controlling for this type of heterogeneity, as a result of differences across regions in the impact of the observed characteristics. Among the factors considered in our analysis, regional differences in the endowment and impact of an individual’s education are shown to play a major role.

Modelling the disability severity score in motor insurance claims: an application to the Spanish case

Bodily injury claims have the greatest impact on the claim costs of motor insurance companies. The disability severity of motor claims is assessed in numerous European countries by means of score systems. In this paper a zero inflated generalized Poisson regression model is implemented to estimate the disability severity score of victims in-volved in motor accidents on Spanish roads. We show that the injury severity estimates may be automatically converted into financial terms by insurers at any point of the claim handling process. As such, the methodology described may be used by motor insurers operating in the Spanish market to monitor the size of bodily injury claims. By using insurance data, various applications are presented in which the score estimate of disability severity is of value to insurers, either for computing the claim compensation or for claim reserve purposes.

Ecological fallacy in a time series context: evidence from the Spanish regional unemployment rates

The ecological fallacy (EF) is a common problem regional scientists have to deal with when using aggregated data in their analyses. Although there is a wide number of studies considering different aspects of this problem, little attention has been paid to the potential negative effects of the EF in a time series context. Using Spanish regional unemployment data, this paper shows that EF effects are not only observed at the cross-section level, but also in a time series framework. The empirical evidence obtained shows that analytical regional configurations are the least susceptible to time effects relative to both normative and random regional configurations, while normative configurations are an improvement over random ones.

Pk-yritysten kehittäminen työllisyyden näkökulmasta

Tämän työn tarkoituksena on hahmottaa pk-yrityksien työllistämismahdollisuuksia teollisuuden rakennemuutoksen karsiessa suurteollisuuden työpaikkoja. Tutkimuksessa selvitetään työllistämistä estäviä ja vaikeuttavia tekijöitä pk-yrityksissä sekä pyritään löytämään niihin liittyviä kehittämisehdotuksia. Tutkimus on kirjallisuuspohjainen katsaus, johon liittyy haastattelututkimus, jossa kohderyhmänä ovat julkisen sektorin edustajat ja toisena osapuolena yksityisen sektorin yrittäjät. Tutkimuksen työn pääongelmana on kartoittaa työllistämisesteitä pk-yrityksissä ja etsiä kehittämistoimenpiteitä, joilla työllistämismahdollisuuksien edistämiseksi. Lisäksi etsitään keinoja edistää yrittäjyyttä erityisesti työllisyyden näkökulmasta. Yrittäjyys ja pk-yritykset ovat voimavara, jonka kasvu- ja kehitysongelmia pienentämällä voidaan merkittävästi vaikuttaa uusien työpaikkojen syntymiseen. Työn alaongelmia ovat: irtisanomissuoja, keskitetty työmarkkinajärjestelmä ja ay-liike, työaikamääräykset, työvoimakustannukset ja paikallisen sopimisen puutteellisuus. Muita työllistämisen ongelmia ovat mm. ammattitaitoisen työvoiman saanti, työttömyysturva ja ensimmäisen työntekijän palkkaaminen. Työn lopputuloksina esitetään mm. irtisanomissuojan heikentämistä, ay-liikkeen saamista mukaan paikalliseen sopimiseen ja joustoihin, työaikamääräysten joustoja, työvoimakustannuksista verotuksen kannustavammaksi rakentamista ja sova-maksujen porrastamista pk-yrityksille oikealla tavalla ja paikallisen sopimisen vahvistamista. Lisäksi työttömyys-turvaa tulee muuttaa kannustavammaksi, ammattitaitoisen työvoiman saantia edistää ja ensimmäisen työntekijän palkkaamista on tuettava.

Pk-yritysten kehittäminen työllisyyden näkökulmasta

Tämän työn tarkoituksena on hahmottaa pk-yrityksien työllistämismahdollisuuksia teollisuuden rakennemuutoksen karsiessa suurteollisuuden työpaikkoja. Tutkimuksessa selvitetään työllistämistä estäviä ja vaikeuttavia tekijöitä pk-yrityksissä sekä pyritään löytämään niihin liittyviä kehittämisehdotuksia. Tutkimus on kirjallisuuspohjainen katsaus, johon liittyy haastattelututkimus, jossa kohderyhmänä ovat julkisen sektorin edustajat ja toisena osapuolena yksityisen sektorin yrittäjät. Tutkimuksen työn pääongelmana on kartoittaa työllistämisesteitä pk-yrityksissä ja etsiä kehittämistoimenpiteitä, joilla työllistämismahdollisuuksien edistämiseksi. Lisäksi etsitään keinoja edistää yrittäjyyttä erityisesti työllisyyden näkökulmasta. Yrittäjyys ja pk-yritykset ovat voimavara, jonka kasvu- ja kehitysongelmia pienentämällä voidaan merkittävästi vaikuttaa uusien työpaikkojen syntymiseen. Työn alaongelmia ovat: irtisanomissuoja, keskitetty työmarkkinajärjestelmä ja ay-liike, työaikamääräykset, työvoimakustannukset ja paikallisen sopimisen puutteellisuus. Muita työllistämisen ongelmia ovat mm. ammattitaitoisen työvoiman saanti, työttömyysturva ja ensimmäisen työntekijän palkkaaminen. Työn lopputuloksina esitetään mm. irtisanomissuojan heikentämistä, ay-liikkeen saamista mukaan paikalliseen sopimiseen ja joustoihin, työaikamääräysten joustoja, työvoimakustannuksista verotuksen kannustavammaksi rakentamista ja sova-maksujen porrastamista pk-yrityksille oikealla tavalla ja paikallisen sopimisen vahvistamista. Lisäksi työttömyysturvaa tulee muuttaa kannustavammaksi, ammattitaitoisen työvoiman saantia edistää ja ensimmäisen työntekijän palkkaamista on tuettava.

Stress testing practices in risk management - Empirical evidence from the Finnish banking and insurance sectors

The main purpose of this study was to analyze how stress tests are used in risk management in the Finnish banking and insurance sectors. In order to enhance understanding of the topic, stress testing was explored in the context of corporate governance and regulato-ry implications of Basel II and Solvency II on stress testing were examined. In addition, the effects of the global financial crisis on stress testing were mapped and the differences in stress testing practices between the banking and insurance sector were discussed. The research method was qualitative case study and it was conducted by interviewing risk managers from ten institutions and a representative from FIN-FSA. Findings pointed out that stress testing practices vary significantly between different institutions. Interesting observations were made in terms of stress testing practices in the banking and insurance sectors. The increasing importance and use of stress tests were recognized as a result of the financial crisis. Stress testing was even considered more like art than science given the amount of challenges it involves. In general, improvements in stress tests were suggested, with an emphasis on stress concentration between different types of risks.

IT service catalog : a case study of the implementation need in a Pan-Nordic Insurance Company

IT service catalog is an increasingly important issue as many IT organizations have been realizing it as a central communication and visualization tool to bridge the gap between IT and the business. This study reviews relevant literature on IT service catalog and related issues on IT services delivery. Furthermore, the study shows how IT service catalog can enhance IT effectiveness as well as provide more benefits when integrating with Configuration Management Database. In order to analyze whether IT service catalog is needed to be implemented in a Pan-Nordic Insurance Company, this study also investigates the current IT services delivery of a case study. The findings of the study show the problems in the current situation of IT services delivery in the case. The characteristics of IT service catalog are recommended in order to help with the mentioned flaws.

Configuration management process improvement : a case study of a Pan-Nordic insurance company

Configuration management is often seen as an enabler for the main IT Service Management (ITSM) processes such as Incident and Problem management. A decent level of quality of IT configuration data is required in order to carry out routines of these processes. This case study examines the state of configuration management in a multinational organization and aims at identification of methods for its improvement. The author has stayed five months with this company in order to collect different sources of evidence and to make observations. The main source of data for this study is interviews with some of the key employees of the assigned organization who are involved into the ITSM processes. This study concludes the maturity level of the existing configuration management process to be repeatable but intuitive, and outlines the principal requirements for its improvement. A match between the requirements identified in the organization and the requirements stated in the ISO/IEC 20000 standard indicates the possibility of adopting ITIL guidelines as a method for configuration management process improvement. The outcome of the study presents a set of recommendations for improvement that considers the process, the information model and the information system for configuration management in the case organization.

Statistical analysis of survey-based event history data with application to modeling of unemployment duration

Longitudinal surveys are increasingly used to collect event history data on person-specific processes such as transitions between labour market states. Surveybased event history data pose a number of challenges for statistical analysis. These challenges include survey errors due to sampling, non-response, attrition and measurement. This study deals with non-response, attrition and measurement errors in event history data and the bias caused by them in event history analysis. The study also discusses some choices faced by a researcher using longitudinal survey data for event history analysis and demonstrates their effects. These choices include, whether a design-based or a model-based approach is taken, which subset of data to use and, if a design-based approach is taken, which weights to use. The study takes advantage of the possibility to use combined longitudinal survey register data. The Finnish subset of European Community Household Panel (FI ECHP) survey for waves 1–5 were linked at person-level with longitudinal register data. Unemployment spells were used as study variables of interest. Lastly, a simulation study was conducted in order to assess the statistical properties of the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting (IPCW) method in a survey data context. The study shows how combined longitudinal survey register data can be used to analyse and compare the non-response and attrition processes, test the missingness mechanism type and estimate the size of bias due to non-response and attrition. In our empirical analysis, initial non-response turned out to be a more important source of bias than attrition. Reported unemployment spells were subject to seam effects, omissions, and, to a lesser extent, overreporting. The use of proxy interviews tended to cause spell omissions. An often-ignored phenomenon classification error in reported spell outcomes, was also found in the data. Neither the Missing At Random (MAR) assumption about non-response and attrition mechanisms, nor the classical assumptions about measurement errors, turned out to be valid. Both measurement errors in spell durations and spell outcomes were found to cause bias in estimates from event history models. Low measurement accuracy affected the estimates of baseline hazard most. The design-based estimates based on data from respondents to all waves of interest and weighted by the last wave weights displayed the largest bias. Using all the available data, including the spells by attriters until the time of attrition, helped to reduce attrition bias. Lastly, the simulation study showed that the IPCW correction to design weights reduces bias due to dependent censoring in design-based Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard model estimators. The study discusses implications of the results for survey organisations collecting event history data, researchers using surveys for event history analysis, and researchers who develop methods to correct for non-sampling biases in event history data.