Analysis of a stochastic SIR epidemic on a random network incorporating household structure

This paper is concerned with a stochastic SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population of individuals, with a random network of social contacts, that is also partitioned into households. The behaviour of the model as the population size tends to infinity in an appropriate fashion is investigated. A threshold parameter which determines whether or not an epidemic with few initial infectives can become established and lead to a major outbreak is obtained, as are the probability that a major outbreak occurs and the expected proportion of the population that are ultimately infected by such an outbreak, together with methods for calculating these quantities. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that these asymptotic quantities accurately reflect the behaviour of finite populations, even for only moderately sized finite populations. The model is compared and contrasted with related models previously studied in the literature. The effects of the amount of clustering present in the overall population structure and the infectious period distribution on the outcomes of the model are also explored.

Threshold behaviour and final outcome of an epidemic on a random network with household structure

This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within 'households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal size) and along the edges of a random graph describing additional social contacts. Heuristically-motivated branching process approximations are described, which lead to a threshold parameter for the model and methods for calculating the probability of a major outbreak, given few initial infectives, and the expected proportion of the population who are ultimately infected by such a major outbreak. These approximate results are shown to be exact as the number of households tends to infinity by proving associated limit theorems. Moreover, simulation studies indicate that these asymptotic results provide good approximations for modestly-sized finite populations. The extension to unequal sized households is discussed briefly.

Household portfolio allocation, risk attitudes and credit constraints : evidence from the eurozone

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira

Removable orthodontic appliances: frequency and cleaning agents used by students and recommended by dentists

Aim: To evaluate the prevalence and hygiene habits of 13-19 years-old adolescent users of removable orthodontic appliances (ROA) and to determine hygiene methods for the appliances prescribed by dentists, in the city of Pelotas. Methods: The study had two stages. The first stage was a telephone interview with dentists. Dentists were interview by telephone calls in order to obtain information regarding the hygiene methods for cleaning acrylic appliances. Second stage was a cross-sectional study performed with schoolchildren. Children from public and private schools with secondary level were included in the sample. A questionnaire was applied to the students using any type of ROA. Questionnaires included demographic information and behavioral characteristics. Data collected were subjected to Chi-square test and logistic regression. Results: The prevalence of children using ROA was 5.4%. Students (89.7%) and dentists (47.2%) reported to prefer mechanical methods to clean their ROA. Cleaning with soup, hydrogen peroxide or effervescent tabs were less used. High frequency of use was associated with higher frequency of hygiene on the ROA. Conclusions: The prevalence of schoolchildren using removable appliances was low. The common cleaning method used by children and prescribed by dentists was mechanical. Hygiene frequency was significantly associated with the routine of use of the appliance and with the type of hygiene method.

Gender, class and the household economy in Scotland in the ‘Age of affluence’

From early 1950s to the early 1970s Britain is said to have experienced an ‘age of affluence’. Whilst material conditions for many households improved in these decades, this detailed examination of budget management processes shows that for many working-class households, these gains were the product of hard work and careful money management. Using oral history methodology, this thesis explores lived experiences of the household economy to illuminate these qualifications to ‘affluence’. In so doing, this thesis advances analysis which considers the relationship between the macro-level economic conditions of affluence and the everyday economic realities of households in the post-war period. The thesis examines the operation of the household economy and shows how working-class households utilised domestic labour, budgeting, paid work, credit and thrift to make ends meet, as well as to achieve ‘affluence’. Further, by exploring these areas of the household economy, this thesis shows that gendered ideology continued to preserve power and material inequalities between men and women. Although considerable change did occur, particularly involvement in the paid labour market, domestic responsibilities continued to be an important focus of women’s identities and the effective performance of these duties by women remained central to the success of the household. This thesis represents a fresh focus on how the exploration of everyday life, including the salience of ideological continuities in shaping experience, can qualify and refine our understanding of twentieth century economic and social change, and contributes to socio-historical understandings of ‘affluence’ and its intersections with the household, gender, and class.

Load Profile Analysis Tool for Electrical Appliances in Households

This paper presents a methodology to forecast the hourly and daily consumption in households. The methodology was validated for households in Lisbon region, Portugal. The paper shows that the forecast tool allows obtaining satisfactory results for forecasting. Models of demand response allow the support of consumer’s decision in exchange for an economic benefit by the redefinition of load profile or changing the appliance consumption period. It is also in the interest of electric utilities to take advantage of these changes, particularly when consumers have an action on the demand-side management or production. Producers need to understand the load profile of households that are connected to a smart grid, to promote a better use of energy, as well as optimize the use of micro-generation from renewable sources, not only to delivering to the network but also in self-consumption.

Load Profile Analysis Tool for Electrical Appliances in Households Assisted by CPS

This paper presents a methodology to forecast the hourly and daily consumption in households assisted by cyber physical systems. The methodology was validated using a database of consumption of a set of 93 domestic consumers. Forecast tools used were based on Fast Fourier Series and Generalized Reduced Gradient. Both tools were tested and their forecast results were compared. The paper shows that both tools allow obtaining satisfactory results for energy consumption forecasting.

Assessing Household Food Waste in Italy: A Methodology for Detecting Drivers and Quantities

It has been estimated that one third of edible food destined for human consumption is lost or wasted along the food supply chain globally. Much of the waste comes from Global North, where consumers are considered as the bigger contributors. Different studies tried to analyze and estimate the Household Food Waste (HFW), especially in UK and Northern Europe. The result is that accurate studies at national level exist only in UK, Finland and Norway while no such studies are available in Italy, except for survey- based researches. Though, there is a widespread awareness that such methods might be not able to estimate Food Waste. Results emerging from literature clearly suggest that survey estimate inferior amounts of Food Waste as a result, if compared to waste sorting and weighting analysis or to diary studies. The hypothesis that household food waste is under-estimated when gathered through questionnaires has been enquired into. First, a literature review of behavioral economics and heuristics has been proposed; then, a literature review of the sector listing the existing methodologies to gather national data on Household Food Waste has been illustrated. Finally, a pilot experiment to test a mixed methodology is proposed. While literature suggests that four specific cognitive biases might be able to affect the reliability of answers in questionnaires, results of the present experiment clearly indicate that there is a relevant difference between how much the individual thinks to waste and he/she actually does. The result is a mixed methodology based on questionnaire, diary and waste sorting, able to overcome the cons of each single method.

Consumption of evaporated milk of household level in Central Java

The objective of the research was identity factors affecting consumption of evaporated milk at household level in Central Java. Data obtained were the primary data of SUSENAS for Central Java in the years of 1993, 1996 and 1999, which were collected by BPS. Sampling method occupied was statified proportional random sampling. Out of 20.600 household populations, 600 units were taken as samples. Sencoric data of SUSENAS were analyzed by using Tobit model, estimating method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) was applied. That was concluded that consumption of evaporated milk were influenced by its own price, price of milk powder, education of the mother, family income, place the family live, and environmental factor. Evaporated milk was treated as luxurious consumption. (Animal Production 4(1): 21-26 (2002)Key words : Consumption, evaporated milk, tobit.

A systematic review of environmental correlates of obesity-related dietary behaviors in youth

There is increasing interest in the role the environment plays in shaping the dietary behavior of youth, particularly in the context of obesity prevention. An overview of environmental factors associated with obesity-related dietary behaviors among youth is needed to inform the development of interventions. A systematic review of observational studies on environmental correlates of energy, fat, fruit/ vegetable, snack/fast food and soft drink intakes in children (4–12 years) and adolescents (13–18 years) was conducted. The results were summarized using the analysis grid for environments linked to obesity. The 58 papers reviewed mostly focused on sociocultural and economical–environmental factors at the household level. The most consistent associations were found between parental intake and children’s fat, fruit/vegetable intakes, parent and sibling intake with adolescent’s energy and fat intakes and parental education with adolescent’s fruit/ vegetable intake. A less consistent but positive association was found for availability and accessibility on children’s fruit/vegetable intake. Environmental factors are predominantly studied at the household level and focus on sociocultural and economic aspects. Most consistent associations were found for parental influences (parental intake and education).More studies examining environmental factors using longitudinal study designs and validated measures are needed for solid evidence to inform interventions.

Work at hand : an exploration of gesture in the context of work and everyday life to inform the design of gestural input devices

This research explores gestures used in the context of activities in the workplace and in everyday life in order to understand requirements and devise concepts for the design of gestural information applicances. A collaborative method of video interaction analysis devised to suit design explorations, the Video Card Game, was used to capture and analyse how gesture is used in the context of six different domains: the dentist's office; PDA and mobile phone use; the experimental biologist's laboratory; a city ferry service; a video cassette player repair shop; and a factory flowmeter assembly station. Findings are presented in the form of gestural themes, derived from the tradition of qualitative analysis but bearing some similarity to Alexandrian patterns. Implications for the design of gestural devices are discussed.

Too young to drink but old enough to drive under the influence : a study of underage offenders as seen in substance abuse treatment in Texas

Driving under the influence (DUI) is a major road safety problem. Historically, alcohol has been assumed to play a larger role in crashes and DUI education programs have reflected this assumption, although recent evidence suggests that younger drivers are becoming more likely to drive drugged than to drive drunk. This is a study of 7096 Texas clients under age 21 who were admitted to state-funded treatment programs between 1997 and 2007 with a past-year DUI arrest, DUI probation, or DUI referral. Data were obtained from the State’s administrative dataset. Multivariate logistic regressions models were used to understand the differences between those minors entering treatment as a DUI as compared to a non-DUI as well as the risks for completing treatment and for being abstinent in the month prior to follow-up. A major finding was that over time, the primary problem for underage DUI drivers changed from alcohol to marijuana. Being abstinent in the month prior to discharge, having a primary problem with alcohol rather than another drug, and having more family involved were the strongest predictors of treatment completion. Living in a household where the client was exposed to alcohol abuse or drug use, having been in residential treatment, and having more drug and alcohol and family problems were the strongest predictors of not being abstinent at follow-up. As a result, there is a need to direct more attention towards meeting the needs of the young DUI population through programs that address drug as well as alcohol consumption problems.

Research Monograph: The role of community and lifestyle in the making of a knowledge city

Our brief is to investigate the role of community and lifestyle in the making of a globally successful knowledge city region. Our approach is essentially pragmatic. We start by broadly examining knowledge-based urban development from a number of different perspectives. The first view is historical. In this context knowledge work and knowledge workers are seen as vital parts of a new emergent mode of production reliant on the continual production of abstract knowledge. We briefly develop this perspective to encompass the work of Richard Florida who has, notedly, claimed: “Wherever talent goes, innovation, creativity, and economic growth are sure to follow.” Our next perspective examines concepts of knowledge and modes of its production to discover knowledge is not an unchanging object but a human activity that changes in form and content through history. The suggestion emerges that not only is the production of contemporary ‘knowledge’ organised in a specific (and new) manner but also the output of this networked production is a particular type of knowledge (i.e. techné). The third perspective locates knowledge production and its workers in the contemporary urban context. As such, it co-ordinates the knowledge city in the increasingly global structure of cities and develops a typology of different groups of knowledge workers in their preferred urban environment(s). We see emerging here a distinctive geography of knowledge production. It is an urban phenomenon. There is, in short, something about the nature of cities that knowledge workers find particularly attractive. In the next, essentially anthropological, perspective we start to explore the needs and desires of the individual knowledge worker. Beyond the needs basic to any modern human household an attempt is made to deduce, from a base understanding of knowledge work as mental labour, the compensatory cultural needs of the knowledge worker when not at work - and the expression of these needs in the urban fabric. Our final perspective consists of two case studies. In a review of the experiences of Austin, Texas and Singapore’s one-north precinct we collect empirical data on, respectively, a knowledge city that has sustained itself for over 50 years and an urban precinct newly launched into the global market for knowledge work and knowledge workers. Interwoven The Role of Community and Lifestyle in the Making of a Knowledge City Urban Research Program 8 through all perspectives, in the form of apposite citation, is that of ‘expert opinion’ gathered in a rudimentary poll of academic and industry sources. This opinion appears in text boxes while details of the survey can be found in Appendix A. In the conclusion of the report we interpret the wide range of evidence gathered above in a policy frame. It is our hope this report will leave the reader with a clearer picture of the decisive organisational, infrastructural, aesthetic and social dimensions of a knowledge precinct.

Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

CPR training in households of patients with chest pain

The objectives of this study are to (1) quantify prior cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) training in households of patients presenting to the Emergency Department (ED) with or without chest pain or ischaemic heart disease (IHD); (2) evaluate the willingness of household members to undertake CPR training; and (3) identify potential barriers to the learning and provision of bystander CPR. A cross-sectional study was conducted by surveying patients presenting to the ED of a metropolitan teaching hospital over a 6-month period. Two in five households of patients presenting with chest pain or IHD had prior training in CPR. This was no higher than for households of patients presenting without chest pain or IHD. Just under two in three households of patients presenting with chest pain or IHD were willing to participate in future CPR classes. Potential barriers to learning CPR included lack of information on CPR classes, perceived lack of intellectual and/or physical capability to learn CPR and concern about causing anxiety in the person at risk of cardiac arrest. Potential barriers to CPR provision included an unknown cardiac arrest victim and fear of infection. The ED provides an opportunity for increasing family and community capacity for bystander intervention through referral to appropriate training.