Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality : lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories

Although interests in assessing the relationship between temperature and mortality have arisen due to climate change, relatively few data are available on lag structure of temperature-mortality relationship, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This study identified the lag effects of mean temperature on mortality among age groups and death categories using polynomial distributed lag models in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city, 1996-2004. For a 1 °C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increase in mortality on the current day occurred among people over 85 years (7.2% (95% CI: 4.3%, 10.2%)). The effect estimates among cardiovascular deaths were higher than those among all-cause mortality. For a 1 °C decrease below the threshold, the percent increases in mortality at 21 lag days were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%) for people aged over 85 years and with cardiovascular diseases, respectively. These findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies to reduce and prevent temperature-related mortality.

Time course of temperature effects on cardiovascular mortality in Brisbane, Australia

Objective To quantify the lagged effects of mean temperature on deaths from cardiovascular diseases in Brisbane, Australia. Design Polynomial distributed lag models were used to assess the percentage increase in mortality up to 30 days associated with an increase (or decrease) of 1°C above (or below) the threshold temperature. Setting Brisbane, Australia. Patients 22 805 cardiovascular deaths registered between 1996 and 2004. Main outcome measures Deaths from cardiovascular diseases. Results The results show a longer lagged effect in cold days and a shorter lagged effect in hot days. For the hot effect, a statistically significant association was observed only for lag 0–1 days. The percentage increase in mortality was found to be 3.7% (95% CI 0.4% to 7.1%) for people aged ≥65 years and 3.5% (95% CI 0.4% to 6.7%) for all ages associated with an increase of 1°C above the threshold temperature of 24°C. For the cold effect, a significant effect of temperature was found for 10–15 lag days. The percentage estimates for older people and all ages were 3.1% (95% CI 0.7% to 5.7%) and 2.8% (95% CI 0.5% to 5.1%), respectively, with a decrease of 1°C below the threshold temperature of 24°C. Conclusions The lagged effects lasted longer for cold temperatures but were apparently shorter for hot temperatures. There was no substantial difference in the lag effect of temperature on mortality between all ages and those aged ≥65 years in Brisbane, Australia.

Characteristics of utility cyclists in Queensland, Australia : an examination of the associations between individual, social and environmental factors and utility cycling

Background: Initiatives to promote utility cycling in countries like Australia and the US, which have low rates of utility cycling, may be more effective if they first target recreational cyclists. This study aimed to describe patterns of utility cycling and examine its correlates, among cyclists in Queensland, Australia. Methods: An online survey was administered to adult members of a state-based cycling community and advocacy group (n=1813). The survey asked about demographic characteristics and cycling behavior, motivators and constraints. Utility cycling patterns were described, and logistic regression modeling was used to examine associations between utility cycling and other variables. Results: Forty-seven percent of respondents reported utility cycling: most did so to commute (86%). Most journeys (83%) were >5 km. Being male, younger, employed full-time, or university-educated increased the likelihood of utility cycling (p<0.05). Perceiving cycling to be a cheap or a convenient form of transport were associated with utility cycling (p<0.05). Conclusions: The moderate rate of utility cycling among recreational cyclists highlights a potential to promote utility cycling among this group. To increase utility cycling, strategies should target female and older recreational cyclists and focus on making cycling a cheap and convenient mode of transport.

Development and validation of a questionnaire designed to measure foot-health status

The aim of this study was to apply the principles of content, criterion, and construct validation to a new questionnaire specifically designed to measure foot-health status. One hundred eleven subjects completed two different questionnaires designed to measure foot health (the new Foot Health Status Questionnaire and the previously validated Foot Function Index) and underwent a clinical examination in order to provide data for a second-order confirmatory factor analysis. Presented herein is a psychometrically evaluated questionnaire that contains 13 items covering foot pain, foot function, footwear, and general foot health. The tool demonstrates a high degree of content, criterion, and construct validity and test-retest reliability.

A systematic review of environmental factors and obesogenic dietary intakes among adults : are we getting closer to understanding obesogenic environments?

This study examined whether physical, social, cultural and economical environmental factors are associated with obesogenic dietary behaviours and overweight/obesity among adults. Literature searches of databases (i.e. PubMed, CSA Illumina, Web of Science, PsychInfo) identified studies examining environmental factors and the consumption of energy, fat, fibre, fruit, vegetables, sugar-sweetened drinks, meal patterns and weight status. Twenty-eight studies were in-scope, the majority (n= 16) were conducted in the USA. Weight status was consistently associated with the food environment; greater accessibility to supermarkets or less access to takeaway outlets were associated with a lower BMI or prevalence of overweight/obesity. However, obesogenic dietary behaviours did not mirror these associations; mixed associations were found between the environment and obesogenic dietary behaviours. Living in a socioeconomically-deprived area was the only environmental factor consistently associated with a number of obesogenic dietary behaviours. Associations between the environment and weight status are more consistent than that seen between the environment and dietary behaviours. The environment may play an important role in the development of overweight/obesity, however the dietary mechanisms that contribute to this remain unclear and the physical activity environment may also play an important role in weight gain, overweight and obesity.

Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios : A systematic review

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English up to 2010. Data synthesis: The review included 14 studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of the historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of the future changes in climate, population and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socio-economic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality.

Domains of rural social work practice

Even though there is substantial agreement about the nature of rural contexts, practice principles, and factors influencing practice we still do not have a framework for organising this knowledge in a way that can directly inform the practitioner in their day-to-day work. In this paper, we introduce the concepts 'practice domains', 'domain location', and 'domain alignment' that, taken together, provide such a framework. We suggest that each practitioner works within a number of practice domains. A domain is a discourse about practice comprising narratives about how a social worker should practise and which factors they should take most account of in their practice decision making. Each practitioner, and each practice process, can be located somewhere within each domain (domain location) and also situated amongst domains according to their relative alignment with each of them (domain alignment). In this paper, we present this framework and show how it is useful for practitioners in understanding practice, identifying factors influencing it, and making practice decisions in immediate, concrete situations.

A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality

Background: Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality. Method: Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day’s mean temperature minus the previous day’s mean. Results: In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 °C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3 °C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 °C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. Conclusion : A significant change in temperature of more than 3 °C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.

Ambient temperature and morbidity: A review of epidemiological evidence

OBJECTIVE: This paper reviews the epidemiological evidence on the relationship between ambient temperature and morbidity. It assesses the methodological issues in previous studies, and proposes future research directions. DATA SOURCES AND DATA EXTRACTION: We searched the PubMed database for epidemiological studies on ambient temperature and morbidity of non-communicable diseases published in refereed English journals prior to June 2010. 40 relevant studies were identified. Of these, 24 examined the relationship between ambient temperature and morbidity, 15 investigated the short-term effects of heatwave on morbidity, and 1 assessed both temperature and heatwave effects. DATA SYNTHESIS: Descriptive and time-series studies were the two main research designs used to investigate the temperature–morbidity relationship. Measurements of temperature exposure and health outcomes used in these studies differed widely. The majority of studies reported a significant relationship between ambient temperature and total or cause-specific morbidities. However, there were some inconsistencies in the direction and magnitude of non-linear lag effects. The lag effect of hot temperature on morbidity was shorter (several days) compared to that of cold temperature (up to a few weeks). The temperature–morbidity relationship may be confounded and/or modified by socio-demographic factors and air pollution. CONCLUSIONS: There is a significant short-term effect of ambient temperature on total and cause-specific morbidities. However, further research is needed to determine an appropriate temperature measure, consider a diverse range of morbidities, and to use consistent methodology to make different studies more comparable.

Assessing the concordance of health and child protection data for 'maltreated' and 'unintentionally injured' children

Objectives: To quantify the concordance of hospital child maltreatment data with child protection service (CPS) records and identify factors associated with linkage. Methods: Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted following retrospective medical record review and database linkage of 884 child records from 20 hospitals and the CPS in Queensland, Australia. Results: Nearly all children with hospital assigned maltreatment codes (93.1%) had a CPS record. Of these, 85.1% had a recent notification. 29% of the linked maltreatment group (n=113) were not known to CPS prior to the hospital presentation. Almost 1/3 of children with unintentional injury hospital codes were known to CPS. Just over 24% of the linked unintentional injury group (n=34) were not known to CPS prior to the hospital presentation but became known during or after discharge from hospital. These estimates are higher than the 2006/07 annual rate of 2.39% of children being notified to CPS. Rural children were more likely to link to CPS, and children were over 3 times more likely to link if the index injury documentation included additional diagnoses or factors affecting their health. Conclusions: The system for referring maltreatment cases to CPS is generally efficient, although up to 1 in 15 children had codes for maltreatment but could not be linked to CPS data. The high proportion of children with unintentional injury codes who linked to CPS suggests clinicians and hospital-based child protection staff should be supported by further education and training to ensure children at risk are being detected by the child protection system.

Conceptions of school-based youth health nursing

The aim of this research is to explore the meaning of the experience of school-based youth health nursing in Queensland, Australia. The research follows a qualitative approach and is based on indepth interviews. The dominant experience is negative because participants feel they have to battle to gain respect and survive in the school environment. The small, positive experience of school-based youth health nursing is related to student consultations. Student consultations are a ‘golden egg’ because participants gain a sense of reward from making a difference to student wellbeing. This paper proposes operational recommendations including those related to health promotion and professional development and strategic recommendations regarding this model of school nursing. The authors conclude, first, that this ‘golden egg’ should be promoted to ensure all school nurses reap the rewards, second, that this model of school nursing is not the most effective model.

Exploring health behaviour determinants of ageing Australians with chronic diseases

Background: Chronic disease presents overwhelming challenges to elderly patients, their families, health care providers and the health care system. The aim of this study was to explore a theoretical model for effective management of chronic diseases, especially type 2 diabetes mellitus and/or cardiovascular disease. The assumed theoretical model considered the connections between physical function, mental health, social support and health behaviours. The study effort was to improve the quality of life for people with chronic diseases, especially type 2 diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease and to reduce health costs. Methods: A cross-sectional post questionnaire survey was conducted in early 2009 from a randomised sample of Australians aged 50 to 80 years. A total of 732 subjects were eligible for analysis. Firstly, factors influencing respondents‘ quality of life were investigated through bivariate and multivariate regression analysis. Secondly, the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) model for regular physical activity, healthy eating and medication adherence behaviours was tested for all relevant respondents using regression analysis. Thirdly, TPB variable differences between respondents who have diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease and those without these diseases were compared. Finally, the TPB model for three behaviours including regular physical activity, healthy eating and medication adherence were tested in respondents with diabetes and/or cardiovascular diseases using Structure Equation Modelling (SEM). Results: This was the first study combining the three behaviours using a TPB model, while testing the influence of extra variables on the TPB model in one study. The results of this study provided evidence that the ageing process was a cumulative effect of biological change, socio-economic environment and lifelong behaviours. Health behaviours, especially physical activity and healthy eating were important modifiable factors influencing respondents‘ quality of life. Since over 80% of the respondents had at least one chronic disease, it was important to consider supporting older people‘s chronic disease self-management skills such as healthy diet, regular physical activity and medication adherence to improve their quality of life. Direct measurement of the TPB model was helpful in understanding respondents‘ intention and behaviour toward physical activity, healthy eating and medication adherence. In respondents with diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease, the TPB model predicted different proportions of intention toward three different health behaviours with 39% intending to engage in physical activity, 49% intending to engage in healthy eating and 47% intending to comply with medication adherence. Perceived behavioural control, which was proven to be the same as self-efficacy in measurement in this study, played an important role in predicting intention towards the three health behaviours. Also social norms played a slightly more important role than attitude for physical activity and medication adherence, while attitude and social norms had similar effects on healthy eating in respondents with diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease. Both perceived behavioural control and intention directly predicted recent actual behaviours. Physical activity was more a volitional control behaviour than healthy eating and medication adherence. Step by step goal setting and motivation was more important for physical activity, while accessibility, resources and other social environmental factors were necessary for improving healthy eating and medication adherence. The extra variables of age, waist circumference, health related quality of life and depression indirectly influenced intention towards the three behaviours mainly mediated through attitude and perceived behavioural control. Depression was a serious health problem that reduced the three health behaviours‘ motivation, mediated through decreased self-efficacy and negative attitude. This research provided evidence that self-efficacy is similar to perceived behavioural control in the TPB model and intention is a proximal goal toward a particular behaviour. Combining four sources of information in the self-efficacy model with the TPB model would improve chronic disease patients‘ self management behaviour and reach an improved long-term treatment outcome. Conclusion: Health intervention programs that target chronic disease management should focus on patients‘ self-efficacy. A holistic approach which is patient-centred and involves a multidisciplinary collaboration strategy would be effective. Supporting the socio-economic environment and the mental/ emotional environment for older people needs to be considered within an integrated health care system.

Feasibility of using health data sources to inform product safety surveillance in Queensland : a report for the Queensland Injury Prevention Council

This report provides an evaluation of the current available evidence-base for identification and surveillance of product-related injuries in children in Queensland. While the focal population was children in Queensland, the identification of information needs and data sources for product safety surveillance has applicability nationally for all age groups. The report firstly summarises the data needs of product safety regulators regarding product-related injury in children, describing the current sources of information informing product safety policy and practice, and documenting the priority product surveillance areas affecting children which have been a focus over recent years in Queensland. Health data sources in Queensland which have the potential to inform product safety surveillance initiatives were evaluated in terms of their ability to address the information needs of product safety regulators. Patterns in product-related injuries in children were analysed using routinely available health data to identify areas for future intervention, and the patterns in product-related injuries in children identified in health data were compared to those identified by product safety regulators. Recommendations were made for information system improvements and improved access to and utilisation of health data for more proactive approaches to product safety surveillance in the future.

Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly : a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence

The impact of climate change on the health of vulnerable groups such as the elderly has been of increasing concern. However, to date there has been no meta-analysis of current literature relating to the effects of temperature fluctuations upon mortality amongst the elderly. We synthesised risk estimates of the overall impact of daily mean temperature on elderly mortality across different continents. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using MEDLINE and PubMed to identify papers published up to December 2010. Selection criteria including suitable temperature indicators, endpoints, study-designs and identification of threshold were used. A two-stage Bayesian hierarchical model was performed to summarise the percent increase in mortality with a 1°C temperature increase (or decrease) with 95% confidence intervals in hot (or cold) days, with lagged effects also measured. Fifteen studies met the eligibility criteria and almost 13 million elderly deaths were included in this meta-analysis. In total, there was a 2-5% increase for a 1°C increment during hot temperature intervals, and a 1-2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1°C decrease during cold temperature intervals. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were substantially associated with all-cause mortality, but no substantial lagged effects were observed for hot intervals. Thus, both hot and cold temperatures substantially increased mortality among the elderly, but the magnitude of heat-related effects seemed to be larger than that of cold effects within a global context.