855 resultados para Emergence Prediction


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Specific knowledge about the dormancy, germination, and emergence patterns of weed species aids the development of integrated management strategies. Laboratory studies were conducted to determine the effect of several environmental factors on seed germination and seedling emergence of Cyperus difformis. Germination of freshly harvested seeds was inhibited by darkness; however, when seeds were subsequently transferred to complete light they germinated readily. Our results showed that 2 wk of cold stratification overcome the light requirement for germination. Seeds of C. difformis were able to germinate over a broad range of temperatures (25/15, 30/20, 35/25, and 40/30 ºC day/night). The response of germination rate to temperature was described as a non-linear function. Based on model outputs, the base, the optimum and the ceiling temperatures were estimated as 14.81, 37.72 and 45 ºC, respectively. A temperature of 120 ºC for a 5 min was required to inhibit 50% of maximum germination. The osmotic potential and salinity required for 50% inhibition of maximum germination were -0.47 MPa and 135.57 mM, respectively. High percentage of seed germination (89%) was observed at pH=6 and decreased to 12% at alkaline medium (pH 9) pH. Seeds sown on the soil surface gave the greatest percentage of seedling emergence, and no seedlings emerged from seeds buried in soil at depths of 1 cm.

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Sorghum, pearl millet, and Brachiaria ruziziensis have similar characteristics which have led to their use for mulch formation in no-till systems. This study was carried out to evaluate the potential of these three species as straw suppliers to suppress weed emergence. Initial findings led to the conclusion that both pearl millet and Brachiaria ruziziensis have similar or superior potential as weed suppressors, compared to sorghum straw, a species with recognized allelopathic potential. Subsequently, new trials were conducted under greenhouse conditions by sowing weed species in pots, followed by covering of the soil with the straw under evaluation. Independent experiments were conducted for Euphorbia heterophylla and Bidens pilosa. In each experiment, the factors analyzed were type of straw (pearl millet and B. ruziziensis), amount of straw (equivalent to 4 and 8 t ha-1 dry mass) and irrigation method (surface and subsurface). Both pearl millet and B. ruziziensis have shown to be species that can be cultivated to produce straw with allelopathic potential. These effects were effective in suppressing the emergence or early growth of E. heterophylla and B. pilosa. There was no difference in the suppression of emergence of these species when the soil cover level was alternated between 4 and 8 t ha-1 dry mass.

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The aim of this work was to analyze the effect of temperature and light intensity on trumpet flower seed germination, as well as the effect of seeding depth on its emergence. To study the influence of temperature, nine temperature intervals were evaluated, ranging from 15.0 to 40.0 ºC. A randomized block design experiment was used with five replications and 20 seeds per replication, and performed twice. To evaluate light intensity on seed germination, a randomized experimental design was used with eight replications and 25 seeds per replication. The treatments applied were: photoperiod with temperature alternation; photoperiod with constant temperature; darkness with temperature alternation; and darkness with constant temperature. The photoperiod consisted of 8 hours of light and 16 hours of darkness, and the constant temperature was 25 ºC. The treatments with temperature alternations were established with 8 hours at 30 ºC, and 16 hours at 20 ºC. Germination was assessed daily to calculate the total percentage of germination as well as the Germination Velocity Index (GVI). To study the influence of seeding depth on plant emergence, 25 seeds were seeded at 0, 20, 40, and 80 mm in pots with sieved soil. The experiment was arranged in a randomized block design with four replications. Seedling emergence was monitored daily until the 15th day after seeding. After that period, the total percentage of emergence was calculated for each experimental unit, as well as the Emergence Velocity Index (EVI). Formation of normal seedlings and the Germination Velocity Index were different among temperatures and higher germination percentages were observed between 20.3 ºC and 37.5 ºC. Tecoma stans seedlings did not germinate when planted at 40 and 80 mm depth. However, the seedlings placed on the soil surface had an emergence percentage of 72. At 20 mm depth, the emergence rate was 31%.

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This thesis studies the predictability of market switching and delisting events from OMX First North Nordic multilateral stock exchange by using financial statement information and market information from 2007 to 2012. This study was conducted by using a three stage process. In first stage relevant theoretical framework and initial variable pool were constructed. Then, explanatory analysis of the initial variable pool was done in order to further limit and identify relevant variables. The explanatory analysis was conducted by using self-organizing map methodology. In the third stage, the predictive modeling was carried out with random forests and support vector machine methodologies. It was found that the explanatory analysis was able to identify relevant variables. The results indicate that the market switching and delisting events can be predicted in some extent. The empirical results also support the usability of financial statement and market information in the prediction of market switching and delisting events.

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The weed Borreria densiflora is a management issue in soybean and sugarcane crops from North and Northeastern Brazil. Knowledge upon chemical control of B. densiflora contributes to the integrated management of this weed species, especially when active ingredient options become reduced due to the selection of herbicide resistant or tolerant weed species. Experiments in pre- and post-emergence of B. densiflora were conducted in greenhouse, in a randomized block design and four replications. In pre-emergence, the dose-response curve methodology was used and 7 herbicides were tested. In post-emergence, 9 herbicides at the recommended rate and 4 herbicide mixtures were tested. For pre and post-emergence conditions, evaluations were conducted at 60 and 21 days after treatment (DAT), respectively, and the variables analyzed were weed control and dry weight (%). The results showed options of pre-emergent herbicides that can be used for controlling B. densiflora, especially in sugarcane, where chemical weed control is mainly based on pre-emergent applications. In the current glyphosate resistance scenario, one should consider the use of pre-emergent herbicides within an integrated management of B. densiflora. For satisfactory post-emergence control, B. densiflora plants should be sprayed at the phenological stage of up to three pairs of leaves. Herbicide mixtures have been and will continue to be an important tool in chemical weed management, broadening the spectrum of weed control, while diversifying herbicide mechanisms of action, which helps to prevent or delay the appearance of herbicide resistance.

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ABSTRACT This study aimed to understand the influence of sowing depth and the amount of sugarcane straw on the emergence of weed species Luffa aegyptiaca Miller (Cucurbitaceae); Mucuna aterrima Piper & Tracy (Fabaceae - Leguminosae) and Ricinus communis (Euphorbiaceae). A completely randomized design with a 5 x 4 x 3 factorial layout with four replications was used, at five sowing depths (0, 2, 4, 8 and 10 cm), four different amounts of sugarcane straw (0, 5, 10 and 15 t ha-1) and three different evaluation periods (7, 14 and 21 days after sowing). After sowing, different amounts of sugarcane straw (0, 5, 10 and 15 t ha-1) were deposited on soil. Seedling emergence was analyzed at 7, 14 and 21 days after sowing, counting the number of seedlings that had emerged. At the end of the trial, weed height (cm), leaf area (cm2) and shoot dry mass (g) were measured. In relation to emergence ability, studied species presented different responses according to sowing depth and to the amount of sugarcane straw deposited on the soil. For the L.aegyptiacaand M.aterrima, no significant difference was observed in the interaction between depth and sugarcane straw, showing the adaptation of these species to no-burn sugarcane system. For R.communis, seeds placed at 0 cm of sugar cane straw depth were observed to favor the emergence of seedlings.

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ABSTRACTThe weed communities of agricultural systems are dynamic and respond to changes in agronomic practices. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of post-emergence herbicide control programs made by farmers on weed communities and commercial lots of rice. The evaluations were carried out in 96 commercial lots located in the Centro, Meseta and Norte zones of the department of Tolima. In each lot, 1 ha was marked off, in which the evaluations were carried out by randomly throwing a 0.2 x 0.2 m sampling-square 5 times. Samples were taken before the first post-emergence application, after the first post-emergence application, after the second post-emergence application, and once the post-emergence applications were finished. The evaluated variables included density and cover of the weeds and the crops. The IVI of each species was calculated and the control program was analyzed in terms of decreases in the number of individuals for the 15 more encountered species. Before the applications, higher density values were found. The first and second post-emergence applications reduced the average density by 41% and 12%, respectively, throughout the department. Between the first and fourth evaluations, the density of the weeds and crops decreased throughout the department by 51.7% and 39%, respectively. The weed density variable proved to be the most influential in the populations after the herbicide programs were carried out.

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ABSTRACT Crop allelopathy is a potential tool for weed management but allelopathic potential often varies among cultivars and developmental stages of crop. Bioassays were conducted to appraise the allelopathic potential of herbage (incorporated at 8 g kg-1 soil) of different hexaploid wheat (Triticum aestivum) cultivars (Millat-2011, AARI-2011, Lasani-2008 and Faisalabad-2008) collected at different crop growth stages [tillering (Z-30), anthesis (Z-60) and maturity (Z-90)] against lambsquarter (Chenopodium album). Mean emergence time taken by lambsquarter was prolonged over control by anthesis and maturity stage herbage of all wheat cultivars. Final emergence percentage was dropped by 3-17% in response to different growth stages of herbage collection. Maximum suppression in shoot (45 and 78%) and root (60 and 90%) length, and seedling dry biomass (65 and 96%) of lambsquarter over control was recorded under the amendment of anthesis and maturity stages herbage of wheat cultivars. Total chlorophyll contents declined in response to herbage collected at anthesis and maturity stage of all wheat cultivars over control. Phenolic contents on the other hand were increased. Activities of enzymatic antioxidants also varied among all wheat cultivars, and declined by the incorporation of tillering, anthesis and maturity stage herbage. Wheat herbage induced lipid peroxidation in lambsquarter seedling and higher malondialdehyde content (0.56 and 0.77 nmol g-1 FW) was observed by the incorporation of wheat cultivars herbage collected at anthesis and maturity stage, respectively. Anthesis and maturity stage herbage of wheat cultivars Millat-2011, AARI-2011 and Lasani-2008 was more phytotoxic than Faisalabad-2008. Moreover, tillering stage herbage of all wheat cultivars had less inhibitory potential against emergence, seedling growth and biochemical attributes of lambsquarter. Wheat herbage amendment increased the soil pH, phenolic, organic carbon and nitrogen contents as compared to control.

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This study was carried out at the site named Pedregulho in the "Estação Experimental de Itirapina", Itirapina, state of São Paulo, Brazil. Soil samples were collected in the rainy and in the dry season at three depths in the gallery forest, cerrado and cerradão. The total number of seeds was counted after being separated from the soil by wet sieving and the number of viable seeds was determined by emergence of seedlings in soil samples in a greenhouse. The number of seeds and of emerged seedlings decreases as soil samples become deeper. The number of seeds was much larger in the cerrado in the dry season than in the rainy season, but it was lower in the dry than in the rainy season in the gallery forest. The number of seeds in the cerradão was similar in both seasons. There was a heavy discrepancy between the total number of seeds and that of emerged seedlings.

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The main objective of this master’s thesis is to examine if Weibull analysis is suitable method for warranty forecasting in the Case Company. The Case Company has used Reliasoft’s Weibull++ software, which is basing on the Weibull method, but the Company has noticed that the analysis has not given right results. This study was conducted making Weibull simulations in different profit centers of the Case Company and then comparing actual cost and forecasted cost. Simula-tions were made using different time frames and two methods for determining future deliveries. The first sub objective is to examine, which parameters of simulations will give the best result to each profit center. The second sub objective of this study is to create a simple control model for following forecasted costs and actual realized costs. The third sub objective is to document all Qlikview-parameters of profit centers. This study is a constructive research, and solutions for company’s problems are figured out in this master’s thesis. In the theory parts were introduced quality issues, for example; what is quality, quality costing and cost of poor quality. Quality is one of the major aspects in the Case Company, so understand-ing the link between quality and warranty forecasting is important. Warranty management was also introduced and other different tools for warranty forecasting. The Weibull method and its mathematical properties and reliability engineering were introduced. The main results of this master’s thesis are that the Weibull analysis forecasted too high costs, when calculating provision. Although, some forecasted values of profit centers were lower than actual values, the method works better for planning purposes. One of the reasons is that quality improving or alternatively quality decreasing is not showing in the results of the analysis in the short run. The other reason for too high values is that the products of the Case Company are com-plex and analyses were made in the profit center-level. The Weibull method was developed for standard products, but products of the Case Company consists of many complex components. According to the theory, this method was developed for homogeneous-data. So the most im-portant notification is that the analysis should be made in the product level, not the profit center level, when the data is more homogeneous.

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Early identification of patients who need hospitalization or patients who should be discharged would be helpful for the management of acute asthma in the emergency room. The objective of the present study was to examine the clinical and pulmonary functional measures used during the first hour of assessment of acute asthma in the emergency room in order to predict the outcome. We evaluated 88 patients. The inclusion criteria were age between 12 and 55 years, forced expiratory volume in the first second below 50% of predicted value, and no history of chronic disease or pregnancy. After baseline evaluation, all patients were treated with 2.5 mg albuterol delivered by nebulization every 20 min in the first hour and 60 mg of intravenous methylprednisolone. Patients were reevaluated after 60 min of treatment. Sixty-five patients (73.9%) were successfully treated and discharged from the emergency room (good responders), and 23 (26.1%) were hospitalized or were treated and discharged with relapse within 10 days (poor responders). A predictive index was developed: peak expiratory flow rates after 1 h <=0% of predicted values and accessory muscle use after 1 h. The index ranged from 0 to 2. An index of 1 or higher presented a sensitivity of 74.0, a specificity of 69.0, a positive predictive value of 46.0, and a negative predictive value of 88.0. It was possible to predict outcome in the first hour of management of acute asthma in the emergency room when the index score was 0 or 2.

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We describe the impact of subtype differences on the seroreactivity of linear antigenic epitopes in envelope glycoprotein of HIV-1 isolates from different geographical locations. By computer analysis, we predicted potential antigenic sites of envelope glycoprotein (gp120 and gp4l) of this virus. For this purpose, after fetching sequences of proteins of interest from data banks, values of hydrophilicity, flexibility, accessibility, inverted hydrophobicity, and secondary structure were considered. We identified several potential antigenic epitopes in a B subtype strain of envelope glycoprotein of HIV-1 (IIIB). Solid- phase peptide synthesis methods of Merrifield and Fmoc chemistry were used for synthesizing peptides. These synthetic peptides corresponded mainly to the C2, V3 and CD4 binding sites of gp120 and some parts of the ectodomain of gp41. The reactivity of these peptides was tested by ELISA against different HIV-1-positive sera from different locations in India. For two of these predicted epitopes, the corresponding Indian consensus sequences (LAIERYLKQQLLGWG and DIIGDIRQAHCNISEDKWNET) (subtype C) were also synthesized and their reactivity was tested by ELISA. These peptides also distinguished HIV-1-positive sera of Indians with C subtype infections from sera from HIV-negative subjects.

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The present study compares the performance of stochastic and fuzzy models for the analysis of the relationship between clinical signs and diagnosis. Data obtained for 153 children concerning diagnosis (pneumonia, other non-pneumonia diseases, absence of disease) and seven clinical signs were divided into two samples, one for analysis and other for validation. The former was used to derive relations by multi-discriminant analysis (MDA) and by fuzzy max-min compositions (fuzzy), and the latter was used to assess the predictions drawn from each type of relation. MDA and fuzzy were closely similar in terms of prediction, with correct allocation of 75.7 to 78.3% of patients in the validation sample, and displaying only a single instance of disagreement: a patient with low level of toxemia was mistaken as not diseased by MDA and correctly taken as somehow ill by fuzzy. Concerning relations, each method provided different information, each revealing different aspects of the relations between clinical signs and diagnoses. Both methods agreed on pointing X-ray, dyspnea, and auscultation as better related with pneumonia, but only fuzzy was able to detect relations of heart rate, body temperature, toxemia and respiratory rate with pneumonia. Moreover, only fuzzy was able to detect a relationship between heart rate and absence of disease, which allowed the detection of six malnourished children whose diagnoses as healthy are, indeed, disputable. The conclusion is that even though fuzzy sets theory might not improve prediction, it certainly does enhance clinical knowledge since it detects relationships not visible to stochastic models.

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In view of the importance of anticipating the occurrence of critical situations in medicine, we propose the use of a fuzzy expert system to predict the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation efforts in the delivery room. This system relates the maternal medical, obstetric and neonatal characteristics to the clinical conditions of the newborn, providing a risk measurement of need of advanced neonatal resuscitation measures. It is structured as a fuzzy composition developed on the basis of the subjective perception of danger of nine neonatologists facing 61 antenatal and intrapartum clinical situations which provide a degree of association with the risk of occurrence of perinatal asphyxia. The resulting relational matrix describes the association between clinical factors and risk of perinatal asphyxia. Analyzing the inputs of the presence or absence of all 61 clinical factors, the system returns the rate of risk of perinatal asphyxia as output. A prospectively collected series of 304 cases of perinatal care was analyzed to ascertain system performance. The fuzzy expert system presented a sensitivity of 76.5% and specificity of 94.8% in the identification of the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation measures, considering a cut-off value of 5 on a scale ranging from 0 to 10. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93. The identification of risk situations plays an important role in the planning of health care. These preliminary results encourage us to develop further studies and to refine this model, which is intended to implement an auxiliary system able to help health care staff to make decisions in perinatal care.

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Given the loss of therapeutic efficacy associated with the development of resistance to lamivudine (LMV) and the availability of new alternative treatments for chronic hepatitis B patients, early detection of viral genotypic resistance could allow the clinician to consider therapy modification before viral breakthrough and biochemical relapse occur. To this end, 28 LMV-treated patients (44 ± 12 years; 24 men), on their first therapy schedule, were monitored monthly at four Brazilian centers for the emergence of drug resistance using the reverse hybridization-based INNO-LiPA HBV DR assay and occasionally sequencing (two cases). Positive viral responses (HBV DNA clearance) after 6, 12, and 18 months of therapy were achieved by 57, 68, and 53% of patients, while biochemical responses (serum alanine aminotransferase normalization) were observed in 82, 82, and 53% of cases. All viral breakthrough cases (N = 8) were related to the emergence of YMDD variants observed in 7, 21, and 35% of patients at 6, 12, and 18 months, respectively. The emergence of these variants was not associated with viral genotype, HBeAg expression status, or pretreatment serum alanine aminotransferase levels. The detection of resistance-associated mutations was observed before the corresponding biochemical flare (41 ± 14 and 60 ± 15 weeks) in the same individuals. Then, if highly sensitive LMV drug resistance testing is carried out at frequent and regular intervals, the relatively long period (19 ± 2 weeks) between the emergence of viral resistance and the onset of biochemical relapse can provide clinicians with ample time to re-evaluate drug therapy.