Forecasting overseas visitors into the United Kingdom using continuous time and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average models with discrete data

This paper applies Gaussian estimation methods to continuous time models for modelling overseas visitors into the UK. The use of continuous time modelling is widely used in economics and finance but not in tourism forecasting. Using monthly data for 1986–2010, various continuous time models are estimated and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Dynamic forecasts are obtained over different periods. The empirical results show that the ARIMA model performs very well, but that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) continuous time model has the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) over a short period.

Business Models for Cloud Computing: Experiences from Developing Modeling & Simulation as a Service Applications in Industry

The potential of cloud computing is gaining significant interest in Modeling & Simulation (M&S). The underlying concept of using computing power as a utility is very attractive to users that can access state-of-the-art hardware and software without capital investment. Moreover, the cloud computing characteristics of rapid elasticity and the ability to scale up or down according to workload make it very attractive to numerous applications including M&S. Research and development work typically focuses on the implementation of cloud-based systems supporting M&S as a Service (MSaaS). Such systems are typically composed of a supply chain of technology services. How is the payment collected from the end-user and distributed to the stakeholders in the supply chain? We discuss the business aspects of developing a cloud platform for various M&S applications. Business models from the perspectives of the stakeholders involved in providing and using MSaaS and cloud computing are investigated and presented.

Virtual power players demand response programs management based on locational marginal prices

Power systems have been suffering huge changes mainly due to the substantial increase of distributed generation and to the operation in competitive environments. Virtual power players can aggregate a diversity of players, namely generators and consumers, and a diversity of energy resources, including electricity generation based on several technologies, storage and demand response. Resource management gains an increasing relevance in this competitive context, while demand side active role provides managers with increased demand elasticity. This makes demand response use more interesting and flexible, giving rise to a wide range of new opportunities.This paper proposes a methodology for managing demand response programs in the scope of virtual power players. The proposed method is based on the calculation of locational marginal prices (LMP). The evaluation of the impact of using demand response specific programs on the LMP value supports the manager decision concerning demand response use. The proposed method has been computationally implemented and its application is illustrated in this paper using a 32 bus network with intensive use of distributed generation.

Demand response in electrical energy supply: an optimal real time pricing approach

In competitive electricity markets with deep concerns for the efficiency level, demand response programs gain considerable significance. As demand response levels have decreased after the introduction of competition in the power industry, new approaches are required to take full advantage of demand response opportunities. This paper presents DemSi, a demand response simulator that allows studying demand response actions and schemes in distribution networks. It undertakes the technical validation of the solution using realistic network simulation based on PSCAD. The use of DemSi by a retailer in a situation of energy shortage, is presented. Load reduction is obtained using a consumer based price elasticity approach supported by real time pricing. Non-linear programming is used to maximize the retailer’s profit, determining the optimal solution for each envisaged load reduction. The solution determines the price variations considering two different approaches, price variations determined for each individual consumer or for each consumer type, allowing to prove that the approach used does not significantly influence the retailer’s profit. The paper presents a case study in a 33 bus distribution network with 5 distinct consumer types. The obtained results and conclusions show the adequacy of the used methodology and its importance for supporting retailers’ decision making.

Android as a cloud ticket validator

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática e de Computadores

Degradação da madeira por caruncho em edifícios antigos: uma análise experimental

O presente trabalho apresenta um estudo laboratorial que teve como finalidade o reconhecimento de perda de propriedades da madeira de edifícios antigos quando degradada por carunchos. Foi estudada madeira antiga de pinho e de choupo, com idades compreendidas entre 100 e 200 anos. Como abordagem inicial são apresentadas as características da madeira e dos edifícios pombalinos e gaioleiros onde esta era bastante usada, não só como elemento deacabamento, mas principalmente como elemento estrutural. São apresentados os vários fatores que levam à degradação da madeira assim como alguns métodos de avaliação e diagnóstico dos estados de conservação dos elementos de madeira que se encontram nos edifícios. É também desenvolvido um estudo sobre o caruncho grande e caruncho pequeno, seu ciclo de vida e forma como degrada a madeira, servindo de base ao estudo laboratorial. No desenvolvimento foi avaliado o estado de degradação de provetes de madeira antiga com 30 x 30 x 90 mm e de seguida correlacionado com a sua resistência à compressão, o seu módulo de elasticidade e a extensão em fase plástica. Desta forma pretende-se estudar o modo como os diferentes estados de degradação por caruncho influenciam as caraterísticas mecânicas das peças de madeira.

Heat transfer coefficients from Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids flowing in laminar regime in a helical coil

This study aimed to carry out experimental work to obtain, for Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids, heat transfer coefficients, at constant wall temperature as boundary condition, in fully developed laminar flow inside a helical coil. The Newtonian fluids studied were aqueous solutions of glycerol, 25%, 36%, 43%, 59% and 78% (w/w) and the non-Newtonian fluids aqueous solutions of carboxymethylcellulose (CMC), a polymer, with concentrations 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4% and 0.6% (w/w) and aqueous solutions of xanthan gum (XG), another polymer, with concentrations 0.1% and 0.2% (w/w). According to the rheological study performed, the polymer solutions had shear thinning behavior and different values of elasticity. The helical coil used has internal diameter, curvature ratio, length and pitch, respectively: 0.004575 m, 0.0263, 5.0 m and 11.34 mm. The Nusselt numbers for the CMC solutions are, on average, slightly higher than those for Newtonian fluids, for identical Prandtl and generalized Dean numbers. As outcome, the viscous component of the shear thinning polymer tends to potentiate the mixing effect of the Dean cells. The Nusselt numbers of the XG solutions are significant lower than those of the Newtonian solutions, for identical Prandtl and generalized Dean numbers. Therefore, the elastic component of the polymer tends to diminish the mixing effect of the Dean cells. A global correlation, for Nusselt number as a function of Péclet, generalized Dean and Weissenberg numbers for all Newtonian and non-Newtonian solutions studied, is presented.

Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices – a cointegrated VECM analysis

This paper addresses the impact of the CO2 opportunity cost on the wholesale electricity price in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL), namely on the Portuguese system, for the period corresponding to the Phase II of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the econometric analysis a vector error correction model (VECM) is specified to estimate both long–run equilibrium relations and short–run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The model is estimated using daily spot market prices and the four commodities prices are jointly modelled as endogenous variables. Moreover, a set of exogenous variables is incorporated in order to account for the electricity demand conditions (temperature) and the electricity generation mix (quantity of electricity traded according the technology used). The outcomes for the Portuguese electricity system suggest that the dynamic pass–through of carbon prices into electricity prices is strongly significant and a long–run elasticity was estimated (equilibrium relation) that is aligned with studies that have been conducted for other markets.

Impact of a price-maker pumped storage hydro unit on the integration of wind energy in power systems

The increasing integration of larger amounts of wind energy into power systems raises important operational issues, such as the balance between power generation and demand. The pumped storage hydro (PSH) units are one possible solution to mitigate this problem, once they can store the excess of energy in the periods of higher generation and lower demand. However, the behaviour of a PSH unit may differ considerably from the expected in terms of wind power integration when it operates in a liberalized electricity market under a price-maker context. In this regard, this paper models and computes the optimal PSH weekly scheduling in a price-taker and price-maker scenarios, either when the PSH unit operates in standalone and integrated in a portfolio of other generation assets. Results show that the price-maker standalone PSH will integrate less wind power in comparison with the price-taker situation. Moreover, when the PSH unit is integrated in a portfolio with a base load power plant, the role of the price elasticity of demand may completely change the operational profile of the PSH unit. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnóstico e avaliação da segurança de estruturas de madeira existentes

A utilização da madeira enquanto material estrutural é um aspeto abordado com algum receio ou até desconhecimento por parte dos elementos intervenientes no processo de construção civil, sendo ainda uma área pouco lecionada e muitas vezes excluída dos planos curriculares em Engenharia Civil. Assim sendo é importante o surgimento de trabalhos relacionados com esta matéria, relembrando ao sector da construção civil e ao ramo de estudo relacionado, que a madeira já teve e possivelmente voltará a ter um papel importante a desempenhar na área da construção. Um dos aspetos evidenciados nos estudos realizados consiste na importância da reabilitação de edifícios e do seu papel cada vez mais determinante na sociedade. Esta metodologia de intervenção apresenta-se muitas vezes como uma vantagem económica assim como contribui para a preservação do património arquitetónico e cultural, cujo valor histórico é incalculável. A importância da reabilitação de edifícios habitacionais nas zonas históricas, bem como de monumentos de grande importância cultural apresenta-se cada vez mais como um desafio devido à falta de conservação dos mesmos ao longo da sua vida útil, e da necessidade de preservar a identidade do local, beneficiando assim a qualidade do tecido urbano. Assim sendo, este trabalho apresenta um levantamento dos danos possíveis de ocorrer em elementos de madeira, dando especial destaque aos agentes patológicos e às consequências da sua atividade na madeira assim como às metodologias de inspeção e diagnóstico que poderão ser aplicadas em estruturas de madeira existentes, favorecendo assim a vertente da reabilitação ao invés da demolição. Estas metodologias recorrem a ensaios não destrutivos, como é exemplo o Pilodyn, o Resistógrafo, o Ultra-sons, etc., referindo também o recurso a ensaios destrutivos, cuja utilização terá de ser uma questão muito bem ponderada devido às consequências que implica. Por fim, apresenta-se um caso real de estudo em que se analisa um pavimento em madeira através da aplicação de metodologias de ensaio não destrutivas e destrutivas a amostras recolhidas. O objetivo será determinar o estado de conservação da madeira e algumas características físicas tais como a sua densidade e os módulos de elasticidade, sendo posteriormente efetuada uma análise estrutural. Os resultados obtidos permitem efetuar uma avaliação qualitativa do estado geral do pavimento sendo as principais conclusões que o pavimento se encontra atacado por parte de insetos xilófagos e apresenta problemas a nível de verificação a estados limite de utilização, deformação e vibração, fator que condiciona a possível utilização do pavimento.

Intelligent Micro Grid Management using a Multi-Agent approach

Recent changes in electricity markets (EMs) have been potentiating the globalization of distributed generation. With distributed generation the number of players acting in the EMs and connected to the main grid has grown, increasing the market complexity. Multi-agent simulation arises as an interesting way of analysing players’ behaviour and interactions, namely coalitions of players, as well as their effects on the market. MASCEM was developed to allow studying the market operation of several different players and MASGriP is being developed to allow the simulation of the micro and smart grid concepts in very different scenarios This paper presents a methodology based on artificial intelligence techniques (AI) for the management of a micro grid. The use of fuzzy logic is proposed for the analysis of the agent consumption elasticity, while a case based reasoning, used to predict agents’ reaction to price changes, is an interesting tool for the micro grid operator.

Stochastic Framework for Strategic Decision-making of Load-serving Entities for Day-ahead Market

The deregulation of electricity markets has diversified the range of financial transaction modes between independent system operator (ISO), generation companies (GENCO) and load-serving entities (LSE) as the main interacting players of a day-ahead market (DAM). LSEs sell electricity to end-users and retail customers. The LSE that owns distributed generation (DG) or energy storage units can supply part of its serving loads when the nodal price of electricity rises. This opportunity stimulates them to have storage or generation facilities at the buses with higher locational marginal prices (LMP). The short-term advantage of this model is reducing the risk of financial losses for LSEs in DAMs and its long-term benefit for the LSEs and the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand. This model also enables the LSEs to manage the financial risks with a stochastic programming framework.

Aumento das taxas moderadoras nas urgências hospitalares : que impacto sobre a procura?

RESUMO - Objetivo: Quantificar a variação da procura ocorrida no Serviço de Urgência Hospitalar (SUH) de um hospital na zona de Lisboa face ao aumento de preço da taxa moderadora da urgência em janeiro de 2012. Metodologia: O presente trabalho recorre à análise de micro dados sobre a utilização do Serviço de Urgência do Hospital Garcia de Orta (HGO) em dois períodos: 1 de janeiro de 2011 a 30 de junho de 2011 e 1 de janeiro de 2012 a 30 de junho de 2012. A amostra é constituída por 156.654 idas ao SUH do HGO. Aferiu-se ainda a elasticidade da procura face ao preço por sexo, escalão etário, proveniência, local e causa da admissão e destino dos utentes. Resultados: Existiram 80.344 episódios de urgência em 2011 e 76.310 em 2012 (-5%).Em relação aos utentes não isentos, houve uma redução de 12% no total de episódios de urgência (26.168 em 2011 e 23.037 em 2012). O preço da urgência aumentou 108% para os indivíduos não isentos (€9,6 para €20). Os valores obtidos para a elasticidade da procura face ao preço são próximos de zero para o total da procura bem como para as restantes variáveis. Conclusões: Conclui-se que a procura de cuidados de urgência é inelástica face ao aumento do preço no hospital analisado. Embora se tenha verificado uma redução dos cuidados procurados (12%), esta foi muito inferior ao aumento ocorrido no preço (108%).

Is low worker mobility evidence for monopsony power?

Major in Competition and Regulation

The Impact of income support programs on transitions to employment

The income support programs are created with the purpose of fighting both, the poverty trap and the inactivity trap. The balance between both is fragile and hard to find. Thus, the goal of this work is to contribute to solve this issue by finding how income support programs, particularly the Portuguese RSI, affect transitions to employment. This is made through duration analysis, namely using Cox and Competing Risks models. A particular feature is introduced in this work as it incorporates the possibility of Defective Risks. The estimated hazard elasticity with respect to the amount of RSI received for individuals who move to employment is -0,41. More than a half of RSI receivers stays for more than a year and the probability of never leaving to employment is 44%. The results appear to indicate that RSI has affected negatively transitions to employment.