THE PHYSICS OF IDEAS: INFERRING THE MECHANICS OF OPINION FORMATION FROM MACROSCOPIC STATISTICAL PATTERNS

In a microscopic setting, humans behave in rich and unexpected ways. In a macroscopic setting, however, distinctive patterns of group behavior emerge, leading statistical physicists to search for an underlying mechanism. The aim of this dissertation is to analyze the macroscopic patterns of competing ideas in order to discern the mechanics of how group opinions form at the microscopic level. First, we explore the competition of answers in online Q&A (question and answer) boards. We find that a simple individual-level model can capture important features of user behavior, especially as the number of answers to a question grows. Our model further suggests that the wisdom of crowds may be constrained by information overload, in which users are unable to thoroughly evaluate each answer and therefore tend to use heuristics to pick what they believe is the best answer. Next, we explore models of opinion spread among voters to explain observed universal statistical patterns such as rescaled vote distributions and logarithmic vote correlations. We introduce a simple model that can explain both properties, as well as why it takes so long for large groups to reach consensus. An important feature of the model that facilitates agreement with data is that individuals become more stubborn (unwilling to change their opinion) over time. Finally, we explore potential underlying mechanisms for opinion formation in juries, by comparing data to various types of models. We find that different null hypotheses in which jurors do not interact when reaching a decision are in strong disagreement with data compared to a simple interaction model. These findings provide conceptual and mechanistic support for previous work that has found mutual influence can play a large role in group decisions. In addition, by matching our models to data, we are able to infer the time scales over which individuals change their opinions for different jury contexts. We find that these values increase as a function of the trial time, suggesting that jurors and judicial panels exhibit a kind of stubbornness similar to what we include in our model of voting behavior.

Qualidade de vida no trabalho da Emater-RN: validação de um instrumento síntese de pesquisa e diagnóstico

The theoretical recital of the present study it is initiated of the evidence that the work occupies an important space in the man s life in way that the majority of the people works and passes great part of its time inside organizati ons. However, it is verified that the relation between man and work is becoming increasingly disagreement a time that the employees had started to complain work s routines, stress, not use all their potential and inadequate work s conditions. It can be observed by the way of Dejours (1994) studies. Thus, as contribution for the quality of work life s (QWL) studies the research developed here objectified to characterize the public employees quality of work life at EMATER -RN taking as reference an instrumen t of research synthesized from the typical academic literature of the subject. The synthesis of an ampler instrument is a necessity not taken care to the literature that treats on the subject but already perceived by some studies like Moraes et al (1990); Rodrigues (1989); Siqueira & Coleta (1989); Moraes et al (1992); Carvalho & Souza (2003); El -Aouar & Souza (2003) and Mourão, Kilimnick & Fernandes (2005); Adorno, Marques & Borges (2005) amongst others. These studies point out weak points of the existing models in the QWL s literature, as well as they recommend the elaboration of a model more flexible, that contemplates Brazilian cultural characteristics, and that contemplates the entire variable studied in the main existing models. For reach this objectiv e the adopted methodology was characterized as a case study with collected data in qualitative and quantitative way. Questionnaires and comments had been used as sources of evidences. These evidences had been tabulated through of statistical package SPSS ( Statistical Package for Social Science), in which the main technique of multivariate analysis used were the factorial analysis. As for the gotten results, it was verified the grouping of the quality of work life s indicators in 11 factors which are: Work s execution, Individual accomplishment, Work s equity, Relation individual and organization, Work s organization, Adequacy of the remuneration, Relation between head and subordinate, Effectiveness of the communication and the learning, Relation between work and personal life, Participation and Effectiveness of the work processes. Whatever to the characterization of the EMATER -RN s quality of work life it was clearly that to the measure that the satisfaction s evaluation with the QWL in the organization walks to intrinsic factors for extrinsic factors this level of satisfaction goes diminishing what points to the importance to improve these extrinsic factors in the institution. In summary it is possible to conclude that the organization studied has offered a significant set of referring variable to the quality of work life of the individual

Essays on Uncertainty, Imperfect Information, and Investment Dynamics

Understanding how imperfect information affects firms' investment decision helps answer important questions in economics, such as how we may better measure economic uncertainty; how firms' forecasts would affect their decision-making when their beliefs are not backed by economic fundamentals; and how important are the business cycle impacts of changes in firms' productivity uncertainty in an environment of incomplete information. This dissertation provides a synthetic answer to all these questions, both empirically and theoretically. The first chapter, provides empirical evidence to demonstrate that survey-based forecast dispersion identifies a distinctive type of second moment shocks different from the canonical volatility shocks to productivity, i.e. uncertainty shocks. Such forecast disagreement disturbances can affect the distribution of firm-level beliefs regardless of whether or not belief changes are backed by changes in economic fundamentals. At the aggregate level, innovations that increase the dispersion of firms' forecasts lead to persistent declines in aggregate investment and output, which are followed by a slow recovery. On the contrary, the larger dispersion of future firm-specific productivity innovations, the standard way to measure economic uncertainty, delivers the ``wait and see" effect, such that aggregate investment experiences a sharp decline, followed by a quick rebound, and then overshoots. At the firm level, data uncovers that more productive firms increase investments given rises in productivity dispersion for the future, whereas investments drop when firms disagree more about the well-being of their future business conditions. These findings challenge the view that the dispersion of the firms' heterogeneous beliefs captures the concept of economic uncertainty, defined by a model of uncertainty shocks. The second chapter presents a general equilibrium model of heterogeneous firms subject to the real productivity uncertainty shocks and informational disagreement shocks. As firms cannot perfectly disentangle aggregate from idiosyncratic productivity because of imperfect information, information quality thus drives the wedge of difference between the unobserved productivity fundamentals, and the firms' beliefs about how productive they are. Distribution of the firms' beliefs is no longer perfectly aligned with the distribution of firm-level productivity across firms. This model not only explains why, at the macro and micro level, disagreement shocks are different from uncertainty shocks, as documented in Chapter 1, but helps reconcile a key challenge faced by the standard framework to study economic uncertainty: a trade-off between sizable business cycle effects due to changes in uncertainty, and the right amount of pro-cyclicality of firm-level investment rate dispersion, as measured by its correlation with the output cycles.

Applications of synchrotron x-ray powder diffraction in hydrated cements: high-resolution and high-pressure studies

The main aim of this study is to apply synchrotron radiation techniques for the study of hydrated cement pastes. In particular, the tetracalcium aluminoferrite phase, C4AF in cement nomenclature, is the major iron-containing phase in Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) and in iron rich belite calcium sulfoaluminate cements. In a first study, the hydration mechanism of pure tetracalcium aluminoferrite phase with water-to-solid ratio of 1.0 has been investigated by HR-SXRPD (high resolution synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction). C4AF in the presence of water hydrates to form mainly an iron-containing hydrogarnet-type (katoite) phase, C3A0.84F0.16H6, as single crystalline phase. Its crystal structure and stoichiometry were determined by the Rietveld method and the final disagreement factors were RWP=8.1% and RF=4.8% [1]. As the iron content in the product is lower than that in C4AF, it is assumed that part of the iron also goes to an amorphous iron rich gel, like the hydrated alumina-type gel, as hydration proceeds. Further results from the high-resolution study will be discussed. In a second study, the behavior of pure and iron-containing katoites (C3AH6 and C3A0.84F0.16H6) under pressure have been analyzed by SXRPD using a diamond anvil cell (DAC) and then their bulk moduli were determined. The role of the pressure transmitting medium (PTM) has also been studied. In this case, silicone oil as well as methanol/ethanol mixtures have been used as PTM. Some “new peaks” were detected in the pattern for C3A0.84F0.16H6 as pressure increases, when using ethanol/methanol as PTM. These new peaks were still present at ambient pressure after releasing the applied pressure. They may correspond to crystalline nordstrandite or doyleite from the crystallization of amorphous aluminium hydroxide. The results from the high-pressure study will also be discussed.

Correlates of agreement between accelerometry and self-reported physical activity

PURPOSE: Understanding factors that influence accurate assessment of physical activity (PA) and sedentary behavior (SB) is important to measurement development, epidemiologic studies, and interventions. This study examined agreement between self-reported (International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Long Form [IPAQ-LF]) and accelerometry-based estimates of PA and SB across six countries and identified correlates of between-method agreement. METHODS: Self-report and objective (accelerometry-based) PA and SB data were collected in 2002-2011 from 3865 adult participants in eight cities from six countries (Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States). Between-method relative agreement (correlation) and absolute disagreement (mean difference between conceptually and intensity-matched IPAQ-LF and accelerometry-based PA and SB variables) were estimated. Also, sociodemographic characteristics and PA patterns were examined as correlates of between-method agreement. RESULTS: Observed relative agreement (relationships of IPAQ-LF with accelerometry-based PA and SB variables) was small to moderate (r = 0.05-0.37) and was moderated by sociodemographic (age, sex, weight status, and education) and behavioral (PA-type) factors. The absolute disagreement was large, with participants self-reporting higher PA intensity and total time in moderate-to-vigorous-intensity PA than accelerometry. Also, self-reported sitting time was lower than accelerometry-based sedentary behavior. After adjusting for sociodemographic and behavioral factors, the absolute disagreement between pairs of IPAQ-LF and accelerometry-based PA variables remained significantly different across cities/countries. CONCLUSIONS: Present findings suggest systematic cultural and/or linguistic and sociodemographic differences in absolute agreement between the IPAQ-LF and the accelerometry-based PA and SB variables. These results have implications for the interpretation of international PA and SB data and correlate/determinant studies. They call for further efforts to improve such measures.

Death reminders increase agreement with extremist views but not violent extremist action in Indonesian Muslims

Using terror management theory, we examined whether mortality salience (MS; death-related cognitions) increased support for religious and political extremism and/or violent extremism in young Indonesian Muslims. Muslim and non-Muslim Indonesian students studying in Australia were randomized to an MS or control condition. Following completion of a distracter task, participants were asked to rate their agreement/disagreement with another Indonesian Muslim student’s (bogus) statements toward extremist views and violent extremist actions. After controlling for alienation, Muslim students in the MS condition reported significantly higher levels of support for extremist views than did non-Muslims. There was no significant effect of MS on violent extremist action in either Muslims or non-Muslims. The results suggest that reminders of death (MS) may lead young Muslims to be more supportive of politically and religiously extreme views, but not violent action. Our findings lend partial support to previous research in Iranian Muslim students; however, further research is needed to establish factors that can result in increased support for violent extremism.

La lectura incestuosa de "La vida es sueño"

It has been said so much about "Life is a Dream" that it seems not to be probable to say anything more, but on the other hand there is such a disagreement and plurality concerning the criticism that is related to the work that it looks like there is still so much left to say about it. Being the debate between these two views, our work tries to focus on the consequences that are derived from the analysis of a character who is never appeared on the stage and is barely named along the text. This character is not other but Clorilene. It has been only two times in which her name comes on the scene and that is the reason why the critics have considered appropriated to talk about two different characters. However, there have also been some people who support the idea about these two Clorilene could be the same character, that is the same person. All doubts are left out by contextualizing the subject and taking into account that if Clorilene who is Basiliós sister and the other Clorilene who is Basiliós wife are the same character, then we would be talking that such a coincidence could be incest. So Segismundo would be the son of such incest. On our opinion, there is no need to insist more on the legitimacy of the incestuous reading of "Life is a Dream", so the contributions we count on are enough to be sure about their validity. However, our work takes an enough span to account for the accumulated bibliography about the case, although it is not very numerous, it is useful. The aim of this thesis is not to question the existence of the incest. It would not be a novelty and as we have said before, the incest is there and it works. However, what is still left to do is an exercise of general interpretation about "Life is a Dream" and to analyze to what extend it could be relevant the reason for the incest or if it is not other thing that a word game that the author ventured without much pretension that the "onomastic incest" which Maurice Molho referred to...

Actitudes hacia el mapudungun : Un estudio sociolingüístico entre jóvenes chilenos en la región de LosLagos, Chile.

Our aim in this study is to investigate what attitudes exist among young Chilean peopletowards Mapudungun. Our other objectives are to establish the interest of learningMapudungun and to investigate if any of the informants identify themselves as mapuche. Thisstudy has been conducted among a small sample of informants in the region Los Lagos inChile. The sample consists of 21 informants between the ages 20 to 30.They answered a questionnaire consisting of two parts. In the first part we establish the ethnicidentity of the informants, and their desire to learn the language. Based on this they weredivided into three groups (mapuche, not mapuche and unsure) to investigate if the attitudesdiffer depending on their ethnicity. The second part of the questionnaire consists of the items.The informants have expressed their agreement or disagreement towards 20 positive ornegative items toward Mapudungun.The results of the analysis indicate that the attitudes towards Mapudungun are positive.However, the results show that the attitudes differ between the groups. We found a morepositive attitude in the mapuche group. We have also established an interest in learningMapudungun among the informants, even those that are not mapuche.

Pliocene reversal of late Neogene aridification.

The Pliocene epoch (5.3-2.6 Ma) represents the most recent geological interval in which global temperatures were several degrees warmer than today and is therefore considered our best analog for a future anthropogenic greenhouse world. However, our understanding of Pliocene climates is limited by poor age control on existing terrestrial climate archives, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, and by persistent disagreement between paleo-data and models concerning the magnitude of regional warming and/or wetting that occurred in response to increased greenhouse forcing. To address these problems, here we document the evolution of Southern Hemisphere hydroclimate from the latest Miocene to the middle Pliocene using radiometrically-dated fossil pollen records preserved in speleothems from semiarid southern Australia. These data reveal an abrupt onset of warm and wet climates early within the Pliocene, driving complete biome turnover. Pliocene warmth thus clearly represents a discrete interval which reversed a long-term trend of late Neogene cooling and aridification, rather than being simply the most recent period of greater-than-modern warmth within a continuously cooling trajectory. These findings demonstrate the importance of high-resolution chronologies to accompany paleoclimate data and also highlight the question of what initiated the sustained interval of Pliocene warmth.

Validity and reliability of the international fItness scale (IFIS) in a population-based sample of schoolchildren in Bogota, Colombia: The FUPRECOL study

The International FItness Scale (IFIS) is a self-reported measure of physical fitness that could easily. This scale has been validated in children, adolescents, and young adults; however, it is unknown whether the IFIS represents a valid and reliable estimate of physical fitness in Latino-American youth population. In the present study we aimed to examine the validity and reliability of the IFIS on a population-based sample of schoolchildren in Bogota, Colombia. Participants were 1,875 Colombian youth (56.2% girls) aged 9 to 17.9 years old. We measured adiposity markers (body fat, waist-to-height ratio, skinfold thicknesses and BMI), blood pressure, lipids profile, fasting glucose, and physical fitness level (self reported and measured). Also, a validated cardiometabolic risk index was used. An age- and sex-matched sample of 229 Schoolchildren originally not included in the study sample fulfilled IFIS twice for reliability purposes. Our data suggest that both measured and self-reported overall fitness were associated inversely with adiposity indicators and a cardiometabolic risk score. Overall, schoolchildren who self-reported “good” and “very good” fitness had better measured fitness than those who reported “very poor” and “poor” fitness (all p<0.001). Test–retest reliability of IFIS items was also good, with an average weighted Kappa of 0.811. Therefore, our findings suggest that self-reported fitness, as assessed by IFIS, is a valid, reliable, and health-related measure, and it can be a good alternative for future use in large studies with Latin-schoolchildren from Colombia.