884 resultados para Cost Estimation System
Resumo:
In areas where there is irrigated agriculture, the recuperation of water reserves in alluvial aquifers may occur preferentially due to precipitation. Recharging can be evaluated from variation information of water depth measured in piezometers or observation wells. Thus, the aim of this research is to study the recharge in the alluvial aquifer formed by the Mimoso temporary stream in the semiarid region of Pernambuco (PE), Brazil, using the method of the fluctuation of the water level. This system is typical on the Brazilian Northeast semiarid region, using groundwater for domestic supply and for irrigation on small scale agriculture. Monthly potentiometric levels and rainfall data were used. The selected period for the study, from January 2002 to October 2009, involved extreme events of flooding and droughts as well as regular years, providing a better understanding of the behavior of the alluvial recharge. It was found that the system responds significantly to precipitation events. It was also observed that even with different soil textures in the study area, recharge factors were not significantly different. The study provided a better understanding of the behavior of aquifer recharge and its relationship with the soil and the rainfall events in the region.
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A fuzzy ruled-based system was developed in this study and resulted in an index indicating the level of uncertainty related to commercial transactions between cassava growers and their dealers. The fuzzy system was developed based on Transaction Cost Economics approach. The fuzzy system was developed from input variables regarding information sharing between grower and dealer on “Demand/purchase Forecasting”, “Production Forecasting” and “Production Innovation”. The output variable is the level of uncertainty regarding the transaction between seller and buyer agent, which may serve as a system for detecting inefficiencies. Evidences from 27 cassava growers registered in the Regional Development Offices of Tupa and Assis, São Paulo, Brazil, and 48 of their dealers supported the development of the system. The mathematical model indicated that 55% of the growers present a Very High level of uncertainty, 33% present Medium or High. The others present Low or Very Low level of uncertainty. From the model, simulations of external interferences can be implemented in order to improve the degree of uncertainty and, thus, lower transaction costs.
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Green IT is a term that covers various tasks and concepts that are related to reducing the environmental impact of IT. At enterprise level, Green IT has significant potential to generate sustainable cost savings: the total amount of devices is growing and electricity prices are rising. The lifecycle of a computer can be made more environmentally sustainable using Green IT, e.g. by using energy efficient components and by implementing device power management. The challenge using power management at enterprise level is how to measure and follow-up the impact of power management policies? During the thesis a power management feature was developed to a configuration management system. The feature can be used to automatically power down and power on PCs using a pre-defined schedule and to estimate the total power usage of devices. Measurements indicate that using the feature the device power consumption can be monitored quite precisely and the power consumption can be reduced, which generates electricity cost savings and reduces the environmental impact of IT.
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Turun seudun turvallisen ja kestävän liikkumisen suunnitelma on laadittu seudun kuntien ja Varsinais-Suomen ELY-keskuksen yhteistyönä. Suunnitelmassa on selvitetty liikenneturvallisuuden, liikkumisen, toimintaympäristön ja liikennejärjestelmän nykytilaa sekä kartoitettu liikenneturvallisuusongelmia erilaisten analyysien ja kyselyiden avulla. Nykytila-analyysin pohjalta on asetettu liikenneturvallisuustyön visio ja tavoitteet sekä määritetty toimenpide-ehdotukset. Tavoitteisiin pääsemistä tukevat liikenneympäristön parantamistoimenpiteiden ohjelma, liikkumisen ohjauksen toimintaohjelma sekä hallintokuntien liikenneturvallisuustyön toimenpiteistä kootut toimintasuunnitelmat. Onnettomuusanalyysin perusteella liikenneturvallisuuden tila oli Turun seudulla hieman koko Suomen keskiarvoa heikompi. Seudulla tapahtui vuosina 2001-2010 henkilövahinkoon johtaneita onnettomuuksia keskimäärin 132 / 100 000 asukasta, kun vastaava luku oli 126 koko maan osalta. Kuolemaan johtaneita onnettomuuksia tapahtui seudulla vähemmän, mutta loukkaantumiseen johtaneita onnettomuuksia koko maan keskiarvoa enemmän. Onnettomuuksissa kuoli tai loukkaantui koko maan keskiarvoa enemmän jalankulkijoita ja polkupyöräilijöitä. Lukumäärällisesti eniten onnettomuuksia tapahtui 18–19-vuotiaille, mutta henkilövahinkoon johtaneita onnettomuuksia tapahtui selvästi eniten 15–16-vuotiaille. Seudulla tapahtuneista liikenneonnettomuuksista aiheutui vuosittain keskimäärin 127,2 miljoonan euron kustannukset, josta kuntien osuus oli vuosittain noin 22,3 miljoonaa euroa. Asukkaille suunnatun kyselyn mukaan sekä työmatkat että lyhyet vapaa-ajan matkat tehtiin useimmiten henkilöautolla. Koululaisia pidettiin turvattomimpana tienkäyttäjäryhmänä, ja kävelyä sekä pyöräilyä turvattomimpina kulkutapoina. Välinpitämättömyyttä pidettiin merkittävimpänä syynä erilaisiin liikennerikkomuksiin ja tärkeimmäksi kehittämistarpeeksi nousi liikennekäyttäytyminen. Yhdyskuntarakenteen ja toimintaympäristön analyysin perusteella seudulla on hyvät edellytykset kestävien kulkumuotojen kuten joukkoliikenteen houkuttelevuuden lisäämiselle sekä kävelyn ja pyöräilyn verkoston kehittämiselle. Onnettomuusanalyysin ja valtakunnallisten tavoitteiden pohjalta Turun seudulle asetettiin liikenneturvallisuustyön tavoitteet. Tavoitelaskelman mukaan liikennekuolemien ja loukkaantuneiden määrä tulee puolittaa vuosien 2006-2010 keskiarvosta vuoteen 2020 mennessä. Tavoitteen mukaan liikenteessä kuolee enintään 6 (lähtötaso 12) ja loukkaantuu 236 (lähtötaso 471) vuonna 2020. Vaikutusarvion perusteella voidaan arvioida päästävän tavoitteeseen suunnitelmakauden aikana. Tavoitteiden saavuttaminen on kuitenkin haasteellista ja edellyttää tehokasta yhteistyötä eri tahojen välillä. Tavoitteeseen tulee pyrkiä laajaa keinovalikoimaa käyttäen. Suunnitelmatyön aikana aktivoitiin kuntien turvallisen ja kestävän liikkumisen ryhmät, joiden toiminnan tueksi laadittiin toimintasuunnitelmat sekä vuosikello työn eri vaiheista. Ryhmät vastaavat suunnitelman toteuttamisesta, toteutumisen seurannasta ja tarvittaessa päivittämisestä.
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Centrifugal pumps are a notable end-consumer of electrical energy. Typical application of a centrifugal pump is the filling or emptying of a reservoir tank, where the pump is often operated at a constant speed until the process is completed. Installing a frequency converter to control the motor substitutes the traditional fixed-speed pumping system, allows the optimization of rotational speed profile for the pumping tasks and enables the estimation of rotational speed and shaft torque of an induction motor without any additional measurements from the motor shaft. Utilization of variable-speed operation provides the possibility to decrease the overall energy consumption of the pumping task. The static head of the pumping process may change during the pumping task. In such systems, the minimum rotational speed changes during reservoir filling or emptying, and the minimum energy consumption can’t be achieved with a fixed rotational speed. This thesis presents embedded algorithms to automatically identify, optimize and monitor pumping processes between supply and destination reservoirs, and evaluates the changing static head –based optimization method.
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The thesis develops guidelines for the implementation of the health and safety management system according to the OHSAS 18001 standard, as well as the feasible threat analysis, project proposal schedule, future system quality improvements and organizational change evaluation. The theoretical part clarifies determination of occupational health and safety, its management system, the OHSAS 18001 standard and integrated management system compounded of triple ISO 14001, ISO 9001 and OHSAS 18001 standards. The literature includes such important aspects as human factor, organizational policies, possible benefits, threats, organizational safety culture, Deming’s quality improvement cycle, system implementation, maintenance and cost matters. The empirical part demonstrates real-life situation by using Andritz Pulp & Paper Oy as a case study. Prior the thesis proposal, Andritz Group is analysed including separate business areas, acquisition and integration strategies, current status of the health and safety management and parallel experiences of the largest business area Andritz Hydro. The proposal is aimed at improving the current health and safety system for the permanent and sub-contracted employees at Andritz Pulp & Paper both in Finland and in various projects globally.
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In this doctoral thesis, methods to estimate the expected power cycling life of power semiconductor modules based on chip temperature modeling are developed. Frequency converters operate under dynamic loads in most electric drives. The varying loads cause thermal expansion and contraction, which stresses the internal boundaries between the material layers in the power module. Eventually, the stress wears out the semiconductor modules. The wear-out cannot be detected by traditional temperature or current measurements inside the frequency converter. Therefore, it is important to develop a method to predict the end of the converter lifetime. The thesis concentrates on power-cycling-related failures of insulated gate bipolar transistors. Two types of power modules are discussed: a direct bonded copper (DBC) sandwich structure with and without a baseplate. Most common failure mechanisms are reviewed, and methods to improve the power cycling lifetime of the power modules are presented. Power cycling curves are determined for a module with a lead-free solder by accelerated power cycling tests. A lifetime model is selected and the parameters are updated based on the power cycling test results. According to the measurements, the factor of improvement in the power cycling lifetime of modern IGBT power modules is greater than 10 during the last decade. Also, it is noticed that a 10 C increase in the chip temperature cycle amplitude decreases the lifetime by 40%. A thermal model for the chip temperature estimation is developed. The model is based on power loss estimation of the chip from the output current of the frequency converter. The model is verified with a purpose-built test equipment, which allows simultaneous measurement and simulation of the chip temperature with an arbitrary load waveform. The measurement system is shown to be convenient for studying the thermal behavior of the chip. It is found that the thermal model has a 5 C accuracy in the temperature estimation. The temperature cycles that the power semiconductor chip has experienced are counted by the rainflow algorithm. The counted cycles are compared with the experimentally verified power cycling curves to estimate the life consumption based on the mission profile of the drive. The methods are validated by the lifetime estimation of a power module in a direct-driven wind turbine. The estimated lifetime of the IGBT power module in a direct-driven wind turbine is 15 000 years, if the turbine is located in south-eastern Finland.
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The general trend towards increasing e ciency and energy density drives the industry to high-speed technologies. Active Magnetic Bearings (AMBs) are one of the technologies that allow contactless support of a rotating body. Theoretically, there are no limitations on the rotational speed. The absence of friction, low maintenance cost, micrometer precision, and programmable sti ness have made AMBs a viable choice for highdemanding applications. Along with the advances in power electronics, such as signi cantly improved reliability and cost, AMB systems have gained a wide adoption in the industry. The AMB system is a complex, open-loop unstable system with multiple inputs and outputs. For normal operation, such a system requires a feedback control. To meet the high demands for performance and robustness, model-based control techniques should be applied. These techniques require an accurate plant model description and uncertainty estimations. The advanced control methods require more e ort at the commissioning stage. In this work, a methodology is developed for an automatic commissioning of a subcritical, rigid gas blower machine. The commissioning process includes open-loop tuning of separate parts such as sensors and actuators. The next step is to apply a system identi cation procedure to obtain a model for the controller synthesis. Finally, a robust model-based controller is synthesized and experimentally evaluated in the full operating range of the system. The commissioning procedure is developed by applying only the system components available and a priori knowledge without any additional hardware. Thus, the work provides an intelligent system with a self-diagnostics feature and an automatic commissioning.
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The important role of entrepreneurship in countries’ economic development and overall society well-being is widely recognized by researchers, experts as well as policy makers. Every phase of the process of starting a new business is related to the interaction with at least one player of country innovation system and therefore the efficiency of this interaction may have an influence on the success of whole entrepreneurial process and consequently on the willingness of potential entrepreneurs to engage into this process. The study proposes a System Dynamics model for studying the impact of National Innovation System (NIS) on the entrepreneurial venture creation process. The developed model also takes country population aspect into account and provides results for estimation the effect various demographic tendencies on the process performance. The special impact is made on possible ways to facilitate the development of entrepreneurial framework conditions. Business incubators are seen as one of the effective tool for accomplishing such task. The study also provides the result for estimation of possible impact arising from properly functioned Business Incubators.
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Today the limitedness of fossil fuel resources is clearly realized. For this reason there is a strong focus throughout the world on shifting from fossil fuel based energy system to biofuel based energy system. In this respect Finland with its proven excellent forestry capabilities has a great potential to accomplish this goal. It is regarded that one of the most efficient ways of wood biomass utilization is to use it as a feedstock for fast pyrolysis process. By means of this process solid biomass is converted into liquid fuel called bio-oil which can be burnt at power plants, used for hydrogen generation through a catalytic steam reforming process and as a source of valuable chemical compounds. Nowadays different configurations of this process have found their applications in several pilot plants worldwide. However the circulating fluidized bed configuration is regarded as the one with the highest potential to be commercialized. In the current Master’s Thesis a feasibility study of circulating fluidized bed fast pyrolysis process utilizing Scots pine logs as a raw material was conducted. The production capacity of the process is 100 000 tonne/year of bio-oil. The feasibility study is divided into two phases: a process design phase and economic feasibility analysis phase. The process design phase consists of mass and heat balance calculations, equipment sizing, estimation of pressure drops in the pipelines and development of plant layout. This phase resulted in creation of process flow diagrams, equipment list and Microsoft Excel spreadsheet that calculates the process mass and heat balances depending on the bio-oil production capacity which can be set by a user. These documents are presented in the current report as appendices. In the economic feasibility analysis phase there were at first calculated investment and operating costs of the process. Then using these costs there was calculated the price of bio-oil which is required to reach the values of internal rate of return of 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50%.
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This thesis presents a set of methods and models for estimation of iron and slag flows in the blast furnace hearth and taphole. The main focus was put on predicting taphole flow patterns and estimating the effects of various taphole conditions on the drainage behavior of the blast furnace hearth. All models were based on a general understanding of the typical tap cycle of an industrial blast furnace. Some of the models were evaluated on short-term process data from the reference furnace. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was built and applied to simulate the complicated hearth flows and thus to predict the regions of the hearth exerted to erosion under various operating conditions. Key boundary variables of the CFD model were provided by a simplified drainage model based on the first principles. By examining the evolutions of liquid outflow rates measured from the furnace studied, the drainage model was improved to include the effects of taphole diameter and length. The estimated slag delays showed good agreement with the observed ones. The liquid flows in the taphole were further studied using two different models and the results of both models indicated that it is more likely that separated flow of iron and slag occurs in the taphole when the liquid outflow rates are comparable during tapping. The drainage process was simulated with an integrated model based on an overall balance analysis: The high in-furnace overpressure can compensate for the resistances induced by the liquid flows in the hearth and through the taphole. Finally, a recently developed multiphase CFD model including interfacial forces between immiscible liquids was developed and both the actual iron-slag system and a water-oil system in laboratory scale were simulated. The model was demonstrated to be a useful tool for simulating hearth flows for gaining understanding of the complex phenomena in the drainage of the blast furnace.
Resumo:
Crack formation and growth in steel bridge structural elements may be due to loading oscillations. The welded elements are liable to internal discontinuities along welded joints and sensible to stress variations. The evaluation of the remaining life of a bridge is needed to make cost-effective decisions regarding inspection, repair, rehabilitation, and replacement. A steel beam model has been proposed to simulate crack openings due to cyclic loads. Two possible alternatives have been considered to model crack propagation, which the initial phase is based on the linear fracture mechanics. Then, the model is extended to take into account the elastoplastic fracture mechanic concepts. The natural frequency changes are directly related to moment of inertia variation and consequently to a reduction in the flexural stiffness of a steel beam. Thus, it is possible to adopt a nondestructive technique during steel bridge inspection to quantify the structure eigenvalue variation that will be used to localize the grown fracture. A damage detection algorithm is developed for the proposed model and the numerical results are compared with the solutions achieved by using another well know computer code.
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One of the problems that slows the development of off-line programming is the low static and dynamic positioning accuracy of robots. Robot calibration improves the positioning accuracy and can also be used as a diagnostic tool in robot production and maintenance. A large number of robot measurement systems are now available commercially. Yet, there is a dearth of systems that are portable, accurate and low cost. In this work a measurement system that can fill this gap in local calibration is presented. The measurement system consists of a single CCD camera mounted on the robot tool flange with a wide angle lens, and uses space resection models to measure the end-effector pose relative to a world coordinate system, considering radial distortions. Scale factors and image center are obtained with innovative techniques, making use of a multiview approach. The target plate consists of a grid of white dots impressed on a black photographic paper, and mounted on the sides of a 90-degree angle plate. Results show that the achieved average accuracy varies from 0.2mm to 0.4mm, at distances from the target from 600mm to 1000mm respectively, with different camera orientations.
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State-of-the-art predictions of atmospheric states rely on large-scale numerical models of chaotic systems. This dissertation studies numerical methods for state and parameter estimation in such systems. The motivation comes from weather and climate models and a methodological perspective is adopted. The dissertation comprises three sections: state estimation, parameter estimation and chemical data assimilation with real atmospheric satellite data. In the state estimation part of this dissertation, a new filtering technique based on a combination of ensemble and variational Kalman filtering approaches, is presented, experimented and discussed. This new filter is developed for large-scale Kalman filtering applications. In the parameter estimation part, three different techniques for parameter estimation in chaotic systems are considered. The methods are studied using the parameterized Lorenz 95 system, which is a benchmark model for data assimilation. In addition, a dilemma related to the uniqueness of weather and climate model closure parameters is discussed. In the data-oriented part of this dissertation, data from the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) satellite instrument are considered and an alternative algorithm to retrieve atmospheric parameters from the measurements is presented. The validation study presents first global comparisons between two unique satellite-borne datasets of vertical profiles of nitrogen trioxide (NO3), retrieved using GOMOS and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) satellite instruments. The GOMOS NO3 observations are also considered in a chemical state estimation study in order to retrieve stratospheric temperature profiles. The main result of this dissertation is the consideration of likelihood calculations via Kalman filtering outputs. The concept has previously been used together with stochastic differential equations and in time series analysis. In this work, the concept is applied to chaotic dynamical systems and used together with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for statistical analysis. In particular, this methodology is advocated for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate model applications. In addition, the concept is shown to be useful in estimating the filter-specific parameters related, e.g., to model error covariance matrix parameters.
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Fan systems are responsible for approximately 10% of the electricity consumption in industrial and municipal sectors, and it has been found that there is energy-saving potential in these systems. To this end, variable speed drives (VSDs) are used to enhance the efficiency of fan systems. Usually, fan system operation is optimized based on measurements of the system, but there are seldom readily installed meters in the system that can be used for the purpose. Thus, sensorless methods are needed for the optimization of fan system operation. In this thesis, methods for the fan operating point estimation with a variable speed drive are studied and discussed. These methods can be used for the energy efficient control of the fan system without additional measurements. The operation of these methods is validated by laboratory measurements and data from an industrial fan system. In addition to their energy consumption, condition monitoring of fan systems is a key issue as fans are an integral part of various production processes. Fan system condition monitoring is usually carried out with vibration measurements, which again increase the system complexity. However, variable speed drives can already be used for pumping system condition monitoring. Therefore, it would add to the usability of a variablespeed- driven fan system if the variable speed drive could be used as a condition monitoring device. In this thesis, sensorless detection methods for three lifetime-reducing phenomena are suggested: these are detection of the fan contamination build-up, the correct rotational direction, and the fan surge. The methods use the variable speed drive monitoring and control options for the detection along with simple signal processing methods, such as power spectrum density estimates. The methods have been validated by laboratory measurements. The key finding of this doctoral thesis is that a variable speed drive can be used on its own as a monitoring and control device for the fan system energy efficiency, and it can also be used in the detection of certain lifetime-reducing phenomena.