Fenómeno del Niño historia y perspectivas

Ecuador se ubica en zona de riesgo para la llegada del Fenómeno del Niño, por lo que es necesario estar informados sobre este tema y diferenciar que es la Corriente del Niño (corriente cálida del Pacífico Sudamericano) y el Niño-Oscilación del Sur (patrón climático en el que se producen oscilaciones de la temperatura en dos fases: el Fenómeno del Niño y La Niña). En los años 1997-1998 este fenómeno afectó el 60% del total de la población, con un impacto muy alto en la salud de la ciudadanía, así como en la propiedad pública privada y en diversos ecosistemas. Ante la amenaza en el periodo 2015-2016, la Secretaría de Gestión de Riesgos (SGR) planificó tres etapas de acción: Preparación, Respuesta y Rehabilitación. Luego de la revisión los autores recomiendan entre otras cosas: brindar información oportuna sobre los cambios meteorológicos, informar sobre los planes de contingencia, garantizar la seguridad alimentaria y el acceso al agua; y fortalecer la atención integral que proveen los Servicios de Salud

Índices predictores de asma bronquial en niños y niñas de 6 a 11 años atendidos en consulta externa de neumología del Hospital Vicente Corral Moscoso de la ciudad de Cuenca. 2015

Antecedentes: Distintos estudios han demostrado que aproximadamente la mitad de los niños presentan al menos un episodio de obstrucción bronquial durante los primeros 3 años de vida y, en más del 50% de ellos el episodio se repite una o más veces. Entonces es necesario prever que niños que inician con sibilancias en una etapa temprana de la vida, van a padecer de asma en el futuro, estudios realizados muestran una sensibilidad del 16 % y especificidad del 97 % para el IPA Castro – Rodríguez y para el PIAMA una sensibilidad de 63% y una especificidad del 64% aproximadamente. Objetivo General: Determinar la validez de diversos índices predictores de asma bronquial en niños y niñas de 6 a 11 años atendidos en Consulta Externa de Neumología del Hospital Vicente Corral Moscoso. Metodología: Se trató de un estudio de validación de test predictores de asma en la totalidad de niños/as de 6 a 11 años con diagnóstico de asma y un grupo equitativo escogidos al azar de niños de las mismas edades atendidos en consulta externa de Neumología durante el periodo Enero – Diciembre 2014. Se aplicó una encuesta a sus representantes, además se revisó los hemogramas previos que mostraron eosinofilia. Los datos fueron analizados con los programas SPSS versión 20. Uso de resultados: Se mostró la validez de los Índices Predictores de Asma que podrán ser aplicados a niños en edades aún más tempranas

Caracterização batimétrica e fisicooceanográfica do canal de acesso ao porto de Cabedelo/PB: uma análise ambiental ao derrame de óleo

The State of Paraíba is one of the most dynamic states of Brazil, strategically located in the northeast, is notable for the excellent potential for integration of different transportation modes forming the states of Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco and Alagoas. The dynamic that occurs with port activity causes changes in the space where it is installed. And the elements of this space are always more than suffering direct or indirect influences as the flow in the port is expanded. Therefore, this region became subject to the accidental spillage of oil, because it presents a heavy traffic of ships of various sizes that can run aground or collide with oil causing accidental events. The study of geomorphological and sedimentological compositions of seafloor becomes important as more is known about the relationships between these parameters and associated fauna, and can identify their preferred habitats. The database background, acoustically collected along the proposed study area, is a wealth of information, which were duly examined, cataloged and made available. Such information can serve as an important tool, providing a geomorphological survey of the sedimentary area studied, and come to subsidize, in a flexible, future decision making. With the study area Port of Cabedelo, Paraíba - Brazil, this research aimed to evaluate the influence of the tidal surface and background in modeling the seabed, including the acquisition of information about the location of submerged rocky bodies and the depth of these bodies may turn out to be natural traps for the trapping of oil in case of leaks, and obtain the relationship between types of bed and the hydrodynamic conditions present in the region. In this context, for this study were collected bathymetric data (depth) and physical oceanographic (height of water column, water temperature, intensity and direction of currents, waves and turbidity), meteorological (rainfall, air temperature, humidity, winds and barometric pressure) of the access channel to the Port of Cabedelo / PB and its basin evolution (where the cruise ships dock), and includes tools of remote sensing (Landsat 7 ETM +, 2001), so that images and the results are integrated into Geographic Information Systems and used in the elaboration of measures aimed at environmental protection areas under the influence of this scale facilities, serving as a grant to prepare a contingency plan in case of oil spills in the region. The main findings highlight the techniques of using hydroacoustic data acquisition together bathymetric surveys of high and low frequency. From there, five were prepared in bathymetric pattern of Directorate of Hydrography and Navigation - DHN, with the depth in meters, on a scale of 1:2500 (Channel and Basin Evolution of Access to Port of Cabedelo), where there is a large extent possible beachrocks that hinder the movement of vessels in the port area, which can cause collisions, running aground and leaking oil. From the scatter diagram of the vectors of currents, it can be seen as the tidal stream and undergoes a channeling effect caused by the bidirectional effect of the tide (ebb and flood) in the basin of the Port of Cabedelo evolution in NW-direction SE and the highest speed of the currents occurs at low tide. The characterization weather for the period from 28/02 to 04/07/2010 values was within the expected average for the region of study. The multidisciplinary integration of products (digital maps and remote sensing images), proved to be efficient for the characterization of underwater geomorphological study area, reaching the aim to discriminate and enhance submerged structures, previously not visible in the images

Ecology of antimicrobial resistance: humans, animals, food and environment

Antimicrobial resistance is a major health problem. After decades of research, numerous difficulties in tackling resistance have emerged, from the paucity of new antimicrobials to the inefficient contingency plans to reduce the use of antimicrobials; consequently, resistance to these drugs is out of control. Today we know that bacteria from the environment are often at the very origin of the acquired resistance determinants found in hospitals worldwide. Here we define the genetic components that flow from the environment to pathogenic bacteria and thereby confer a quantum increase in resistance levels, as resistance units (RU). Environmental bacteria as well as microbiomes from humans, animals, and food represent an infinite reservoir of RU, which are based on genes that have had, or not, a resistance function in their original bacterial hosts. This brief review presents our current knowledge of antimicrobial resistance and its consequences, with special focus on the importance of an ecologic perspective of antimicrobial resistance. This discipline encompasses the study of the relationships of entities and events in the framework of curing and preventing disease, a definition that takes into account both microbial ecology and antimicrobial resistance. Understanding the flux of RU throughout the diverse ecosystems is crucial to assess, prevent and eventually predict emerging scaffolds before they colonize health institutions. Collaborative horizontal research scenarios should be envisaged and involve all actors working with humans, animals, food and the environment.

The EU referendum in Northern Ireland: closing borders, re-opening border debates

The UK decision to leave the European Union (EU) following a referendum in June 2016 fundamentally alters the country's relationship with the EU, with its European neighbours, with the rest of the world and potentially with its own constituent units. It is clear that different parts of the UK will be impacted differently by this decision and by the unfolding exit terms and process. In this context, Northern Ireland is considered to be particularly vulnerable. This article examines the referendum campaign in Northern Ireland by detailing input from the Northern Ireland administration, political parties, civil society and external figures. The article suggests that the overall referendum campaign in Northern Ireland was hamstrung by the opposing positions taken by key political protagonists, particularly Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). This produced a challenging context for the referendum debate in Northern Ireland. The post-referendum period has also been marked by persistent differences in relation to how best to approach specific Northern Ireland issues and challenges. A continued absence of clear positions and a lack of contingency planning underline a poor level of preparedness for future political developments.

If we can't have it, then no one should : Shutting down versus selling in family business portfolios

How does a business family manage its business portfolio in times of declining performance to sustain the portfolio's long-term endurance? Drawing on social identity theory and six family business portfolios from Pakistan, we find that business families may prefer to shut down a satellite business rather than sell it, which is primarily driven by identity considerations. In addition, the family's goal to recycle the assets, the aim to restart the business later, and the increasing decline in performance are important contingency factors. This study contributes to the literature on portfolio entrepreneurship, business exit, and the enduring entrepreneurship of family firms.

Determinants of the Design and Use of PMS in Portuguese Government Agencies: A Complementary Theoretical Approach

Performance measurement is seen as a main pillar of public management reforms. However, prior research did not mitigate the level of ambiguity on PMS development and use and many questions left unanswered. Our findings provide knowledge on the design and use of PMS in the public sector answer- ing to calls for a complementary approach among institutional and contingency factors. The authors find that the design of PMS and the use of performance information for external purposes are increased to legitimate the organizational’ work and to obtain external support. Moreover, structural variables such as type of agency and management autonomy are also determinants on the organizational responses. Finally, the authors find some coupling between the design of PMS and outcomes. So, both contingent and institutional approaches play an important role on the empirical model.

Análisis de las barreras para la unificación de una Historia Clínica Electrónica -HCE- en Colombia

Objetivo: Identificar las barreras para la unificación de una Historia Clínica Electrónica –HCE- en Colombia. Materiales y Métodos: Se realizó un estudio cualitativo. Se realizaron entrevistas semiestructuradas a profesionales y expertos de 22 instituciones del sector salud, de Bogotá y de los departamentos de Cundinamarca, Santander, Antioquia, Caldas, Huila, Valle del Cauca. Resultados: Colombia se encuentra en una estructuración para la implementación de la Historia Clínica Electrónica Unificada -HCEU-. Actualmente, se encuentra en unificación en 42 IPSs públicas en el departamento de Cundinamarca, el desarrollo de la HCEU en el país es privado y de desarrollo propio debido a las necesidades particulares de cada IPS. Conclusiones: Se identificaron barreras humanas, financieras, legales, organizacionales, técnicas y profesionales en los departamentos entrevistados. Se identificó que la unificación de la HCE depende del acuerdo de voluntades entre las IPSs del sector público, privado, EPSs, y el Gobierno Nacional.

Los mecanismos de influencia en el liderazgo

Este trabajo tiene como objetivo fundamental identificar las tácticas de influencia que utiliza el señor Carlos Pérez, gerente y socio principal de G. & M., en su trato cotidiano con sus colaboradores, así como la reacción de estos últimos ante dichas tácticas.

Avalição do impacto de uma biblioteca universitária

Neste estudo apresenta-se uma avaliação do impacto da Biblioteca da Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade do Porto (FCUP), na perspetiva dos estudantes e observando alguns dados relativos ao uso da Biblioteca FCUP. A investigação recorre a uma análise de métodos mistos, isto é, avalia dados qualitativos, que descrevem mas não mensuram as características, em especial as ações humanas, e dados quantitativos que apresentam forma numérica e revelam uma quantidade certa podendo ser sujeitos a manipulação estatística. A «Notícias da Biblioteca», uma newsletter publicada bimestralmente pela Biblioteca FCUP, inclui uma seção denominada “Voz do Utilizador”, onde são incluídos pequenos textos de opinião da autoria dos utilizadores, escolhidos aleatoriamente e, que frequentam as instalações destes serviços da FCUP. Aplicando a Norma Internacional ISO16439:2014 (E) – Information and documentation – Methods and procedures for assessing the impact of libraries, examinaram-se vinte textos de opinião, sobre a biblioteca, redigidos por estudantes de várias nacionalidades, publicados de janeiro de 2013 a dezembro de 2014, na «Notícias da Biblioteca». Investigaram-se ainda 7 entrevistas. Apelando à Estatística Descritiva efetuaram-se tabelas de contingência que são úteis para conhecer a relação entre os dados em função de determinados grupos, isto é, observar a frequência de uma variável em função das categorias de outra variável. Com as tabelas de contingência obtém-se percentagens em função dos efeitos do impacto da biblioteca e dos grupos de estudantes e analisa-se a relação entre eles. O estudo utilizou ainda alguns dados estatísticos indicadores que mostram o impacto, a saber, indicadores de desempenho relativos ao uso da biblioteca – número de visitas per capita e número de empréstimos per capita. Estas avaliações em bibliotecas fornecem informações úteis para as chefias de topo, para o desenvolvimento de novos projetos e a otimização do impacto e desempenho destes serviços das instituições de Ensino Superior./ This study presents an impact assessment of the Library of the Faculty of Science, University of Porto (FCUP), from the students’ point of view and some statistical data collected from the FCUP Library use. We used a mixed methods research, i.e., qualitative data, that describes but does not measure characteristics, in particular human actions, and quantitative data represented by numbers that indicate exact amounts which can be statistically manipulated. The newsletter «Notícias da Biblioteca» published, bimonthly, by the FCUP Library includes a section called “User Voice” where we can find opinion texts expressed by library users, randomly chosen, and who usually go to the library. Applying International Standard ISO16439: 2014 (E) - Information and documentation - Methods and procedures for assessing the impact of libraries, we examined 20 opinion texts written by students of various nationalities, published from January 2013 to December 2014, in «Notícias da Biblioteca» During this period of time, we have taken seven interviews. Using the principles of Descriptive Statistics, we produced Contingency Tables to determine how the data relates in terms of certain groups, i.e., to observe the frequency of the dependent variable on another categorical variable. Working with the Contingency Tables allowed us to obtain percentages according to the effects of the impact of the library in various groups of students and study the relationship between them. This study also used some statistical data that show the impact of the library within the institution, such as: performance indicators relating to the use of the library - number of visits per capita and number of loans per capita. These assessment impact studies in libraries provide useful data for the top management, to develop new projects, thus maximizing the impact and performance of these services of higher education institutions.

Adaptação às alterações climáticas do plano de contingência do sistema multimunicipal de abastecimento de água do Algarve

Face ao aumento que se tem vindo a observar da população, especialmente a população flutuante, e a alteração nos hábitos de consumo de água, com destaque para os últimos 20 anos, a região do Algarve poderá enfrentar em anos secos um cenário onde a disponibilidade de recursos hídricos naturais seja reduzida face à procura. Em 2005 foi desenvolvido um plano de contingência para o Sistema Multimunicipal de Abastecimento de Água do Algarve (SMAAA). O plano prevê a possibilidade de reactivação de antigas captações subterrâneas municipais para reforço do abastecimento público em situações de contingência nesta região. A presente dissertação apresenta a avaliação dos principais impactos das projecções dos modelos de clima para o fim do século no SMAAA, nomeadamente ao nível da disponibilidade de água na origem e da procura de água para consumo humano, e a adaptação do plano de contingência face a esses impactos. /RESUME: Faced with a population increase, special one related with tourism, and also with changes in water consumption habits that has been occurring mostly in the last 20 years, the Algarve region in hydrologic dry years may face serious water shortage in a scenario where water resources are scarce. Being so, in 2005 a contingency plan was developed for the Algarve's Multimunicipal Bulk System (AMBS). The plan includes the possibility of reactivating old water capitations, to reinforce the water public distribution upon contingency situation in the region. The present dissertation evaluates the main impacts of the climatic change forecasted by model projections throughout the end of the century on the AMBS, Iooking more specifically at the water availability and the water demand for public consumption, and the adaptation of the contingency plan to those impacts.

Uma caracterização dos imigrantes no distrito de Évora

Uma vez que existe uma grande necessidade de se obter um maior conhecimento das comunidades imigrantes residentes no Distrito, este trabalho tem como principal objectivo caracterizar a população de imigrantes comunitários residentes no distrito de Évora. Em particular, procuramos analisar os casamentos realizados não só entre os não nacionais e portugueses, bem como entre os nãos nacionais entre si. Consideramos os 354 imigrantes que constituem os imigrantes comunitários inscritos legalmente nos Serviços Estrangeiros e Fronteiras de Évora entre 2006 a 2009. Por outro lado, analisamos, para o mesmo período, os casamentos dos imigrantes que casaram com os portugueses num total de 165 indivíduos. Começamos por levar a efeito uma investigação básica de tipo descritivo para uma caracterização dos imigrantes relativamente a diferentes variáveis e investigamos algumas associações entre elas via tabelas de contingência. Refira-se que a maioria dos imigrantes é do sexo feminino, sendo a nacionalidade mais representativa a brasileira. Com base no modelo de regressão de Cox identificamos factores de risco e diferentes perfis associados à rotura do casamento. Mostramos que há evidência estatística para considerar que um menor nível de escolaridade, o pertencer a um país da União Europeia e o ter entrado à procura de trabalho são níveis de factores que aumentam o risco de rotura do casamento. Analisam-se, ainda, de uma forma crítica, a abordagem paramétrica, procurando modelar os dados através dos modelos Exponencial, Weibull, Lognormal e Log-logístico. ABSTRACT: There is a need to obtain a greater understanding of immigrant communities in the district; this work has as main objective to characterize the population of immigrant community residing in the district of Évora. ln particular, we analyze not only marriages between Portuguese and non-nationals, as well as among non-nationals among themselves. We consider the 354 immigrants who are legally registered immigrants in the Community Service of Foreigners and Frontiers of Évora, from 2006 to 2009. Moreover, we analyze, for the same period, the marriages of immigrants who intermarried with the Portuguese for a total of 165 individuals. We start by carrying out a basic descriptive research in order to characterize the immigrants in relation to several variables and investigated some associations between them by contingency tables. It should be noted that most immigrants are women, and the more representative the Brazilian nationality. Based on the Cox regression model, were possible to identify risk factors and identify profiles of high and low risk associated with the rupture of the marriage. We show that there is statistical evidence to conclude that a less educated levels, belonging to a country inside the European Union and have gone looking for work are factors that increase the risk of rupture of the marriage. The parametric approach is analyzed also, in a critical way, seeking to model the data using exponential, Weibull, Lognormal and Log-logistic.

PROPUESTA METODOLÓGICA PARA LA ZONIFICACIÓN DE LA VULNERABILIDAD ESTRUCTURAL Y DE LA POBLACIÓN ANTE LA PRESENCIA DE UNA AMENAZA TECNOLÓGICA:EL CASO DEL POLIDUCTO DE RECOPE, COSTA RICA

Este trabajo crea y aplica una metodología acorde con la realidad del país para zonificar la vulnerabilidad estructural y de la población sometida a una amenaza tecnológica, en este caso bajo la influencia de una posible emergencia por derrame de combustibles del poliducto.  Una de las finalidades del trabajo es zonificar esta vulnerabilidad como elemento por considerar en la determinación del riesgo, elaboración de planes municipales de contingencia y en las propuestas de ordenamiento territorial.Palabras claves: Poliducto, RECOPE, vulnerabilidad, riesgo, derrame de combustibles, amenaza tecnológica.Abstract: This study develops and applies a methodology in keeping with the reality of the country in order to zone the structural and population vulnerability subject to technological hazard, in this case the influence of a possible emergency due to fuel spill from an oil pipeline. One of the objectives of this study is to zone this vulnerability as an element to consider in determining risk, devising municipal contingency plans and in proposing territorial coding.Keywords: Pipeline, RECOPE, vulnerability, risk, fuel spill, hazard, technological hazard.

Dall'uomo esposto al soggetto esposto: il concetto di interfaccia in alcuni filoni di riflessione sulla tecnica dal Settecento a Marcel Mauss

La nozione di ambiente non è una nozione recente. Al giorno d’oggi il riferimento all’ambiente compare in maniera sempre più diffusa nei dibattiti, nelle opere scientifiche e artistiche, negli spazi di divulgazione e sempre più entra all’interno degli spazi affettivi individuali e all’interno delle teorie e delle prassi politiche individuali e collettive. L’ambiente tanto entra nel campo assiologico, quanto vi entra come elemento fragile, indissociabile dall’azione antropica individuale e collettiva, attraverso ciò che noi riassumiamo con la nozione di crisi ambientale. La crisi ambientale permette di riaprire degli ambiti di valore e di interesse nel presente, allo stesso tempo provoca una reinterpretazione e un riorientamento delle teorie e delle prassi del passato. Dal nostro presente di crisi ambientale, è possibile rintracciare delle figure che, nel passato, hanno rappresentato l’inerenza degli enti con il loro ambiente e, tra questi, dell’uomo con il suo ambiente di vita. Sono due le principali figure attraverso le quali si intende riprendere un rapporto con il nostro passato letto attraverso la crisi ambientale: la figura dell’interfaccia come ciò che demarca un rapporto di inerenza e di separazione tra un interno e un esterno che hanno un rapporto tra loro necessario e tuttavia contingente, e la figura della relazione di “esposizione”, tramite la quale si vuole pensare a forme di soggettività vulnerabili, esposte alle relazioni e ai concatenamenti nei quali sono inserite e che tuttavia non possono che esporre a loro volta le altre soggettività e l’ambiente di vita comune a continue modificazioni. Tramite i concetti di interfaccia e di esposizione abbiamo potuto seguire il prodursi di forme di sapere relative all’inerenza tra forme e modi dell’interiorità rispetto all’ambiente che si sono prodotte nella storia e che sono emerse tramite la provocazione di un passato indotto dalla trasformazione che è il nostro presente di crisi ambientale.

Distributed and synchronized measurements for the wide-area observation of electric power systems in distorted and low-inertia conditions

With the aim of heading towards a more sustainable future, there has been a noticeable increase in the installation of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in power systems in the latest years. Besides the evident environmental benefits, RES pose several technological challenges in terms of scheduling, operation, and control of transmission and distribution power networks. Therefore, it raised the necessity of developing smart grids, relying on suitable distributed measurement infrastructure, for instance, based on Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). Not only are such devices able to estimate a phasor, but they can also provide time information which is essential for real-time monitoring. This Thesis falls within this context by analyzing the uncertainty requirements of PMUs in distribution and transmission applications. Concerning the latter, the reliability of PMU measurements during severe power system events is examined, whereas for the first, typical configurations of distribution networks are studied for the development of target uncertainties. The second part of the Thesis, instead, is dedicated to the application of PMUs in low-inertia power grids. The replacement of traditional synchronous machines with inertia-less RES is progressively reducing the overall system inertia, resulting in faster and more severe events. In this scenario, PMUs may play a vital role in spite of the fact that no standard requirements nor target uncertainties are yet available. This Thesis deeply investigates PMU-based applications, by proposing a new inertia index relying only on local measurements and evaluating their reliability in low-inertia scenarios. It also develops possible uncertainty intervals based on the electrical instrumentation currently used in power systems and assesses the interoperability with other devices before and after contingency events.