Consideraciones acerca de los límites de aplicación del método del número de Curva del Soil Conservation Service

En el presente artículo se revisan las limitaciones de aplicación del método del Número de Curva del Soil Conservation Service, modelo conceptual ampliamente difundido para el cálculo de la escorrentía originada por una tormenta. Si bien es cierto que el método posee una serie de capacidades y ventajas que han motivado su éxito en la modelación hidrológica, en particular su simplicidad de uso y la economía en la obtención de los datos físicos necesarios, no es menos cierto que deben contemplarse una serie de restricciones de aplicación. La amplia difusión de la que ha sido objeto ha propiciado la discusión y revisión crítica del modelo, acotando paulatinamente sus límites. Entre los más significativos de éstos, destacan la necesidad de regionalizar, a partir de campañas de aforos, ciertas hipótesis y parámetros del método, así como las precauciones que deben adoptarse si se aplica a cuencas forestales densas con suelos muy permeables.

Conservation and management of the Common Quail (Coturnix coturnix) in Europe: past, present and future.

En el presente estudio hacemos una revisión del estado de conservación y las tendencias poblacionales de la codorniz común (Coturnix coturnix) desde 1900 hasta nuestros días. Algunos de los datos de los que disponemos son contradictorios con respecto al estado de la especie, que presenta ciertas características que dificultan el poder proporcionar estimas poblacionales fiables. Datos recientes sugieren claramente, tanto a escala local como a escala transnacional, que las poblaciones atlánticas de codorniz común han permanecido estables en las dos últimas décadas y que la práctica de liberar codornices criadas en granjas (híbridas con la codorniz japonesa, Coturnix japonica) con finalidades cinegéticas, no afectan significativamente a nuestras estimas. Por otra parte, los complejos patrones de desplazamiento de esta especie requieren especial atención. En este sentido, el análisis de recuperaciones de anillas puede aportar información relevante, especialmente de los movimientos nomádicos de codornices a la búsqueda de hábitats adecuados, tras la destrucción de los cultivos invernales de cereales debido a la siega. Así, al desarrollar un modelo de distribución de cría para esta especie, se debe incorporar continuamente información actualizada de los cambios estacionales de hábitat y clima, con el fin de obtener unas predicciones óptimas. En este sentido, por ejemplo, la inclusión de datos quincenales de índices de vegetación en los modelos de distribución ha dado muy buenos resultados. La obtención de predicciones fiables de los cambios de la distribución de la especie y de sus desplazamientos durante la estación de cría puede ser muy útil para un mejor conocimiento del estado de conservación y las tendencias poblacionales de la especie, así como para el diseño de futuras medidas de gestión.

Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Conservation of Campomanesia adamantium (CAMB.) O. berg seeds in different packaging and at varied temperatures

This article aims at evaluating the effects of different packaging and varied storage temperatures on the germination potential of seeds of Campomanesia adamantium Camb. O. Berg. The seeds were packaged in glass, aluminum foil and plastic containers, or maintained inside intact fruits at 5, 10 and 15 ºC during 0, 7, 14 and 21 days. After these periods the seeds were sown in Germitest® germination paper and maintained in incubation chambers at 25 ºC under constant white light for 42 days. Seed moisture contents were evaluated both before and after storage, as well as germination percentages, germination speed index, root and aerial portion of seedlings lengths, and total dry weights. All possible combinations of packing materials, temperatures and storage times were tested, with four repetitions of 25 seeds for each treatment. C. adamantium seeds showed initial water contents of 31.5%. Glass and aluminum packaging were efficient at maintaining the water content of the seeds, and provided greater germination speed index than the other packaging materials. Germination percentages, seedlings lengths and dry weights did not vary among the different temperatures tested. C. adamantium seeds can be stored for up to 21 days at temperatures between 5 and 15 ºC without altering their physiological quality. In terms of cost-benefit efficiencies, these seeds can be stored without significant damage for 21 days while still inside the fruits at temperatures of 5, 10 or 15 ºC.

Disturbance of wildlife by outdoor winter recreation: allostatic stress response and altered activity-energy budgets

Anthropogenic disturbance of wildlife is of growing conservation concern, but we lack comprehensive approaches of its multiple negative effects. We investigated several effects of disturbance by winter outdoor sports on free-ranging alpine Black Grouse by simultaneously measuring their physiological and behavioral responses. We experimentally flushed radio-tagged Black Grouse from their snow burrows, once a day, during several successive days, and quantified their stress hormone levels (corticosterone metabolites in feces [FCM] collected from individual snow burrows). We also measured feeding time allocation (activity budgets reconstructed from radio-emitted signals) in response to anthropogenic disturbance. Finally, we estimated the related extra energy expenditure that may be incurred: based on activity budgets, energy expenditure was modeled from measures of metabolism obtained from captive birds subjected to different ambient temperatures. The pattern of FCM excretion indicated the existence of a funneling effect as predicted by the allostatic theory of stress: initial stress hormone concentrations showed a wide inter-individual variation, which decreased during experimental flushing. Individuals with low initial pre-flushing FCM values augmented their concentration, while individuals with high initial FCM values lowered it. Experimental disturbance resulted in an extension of feeding duration during the following evening foraging bout, confirming the prediction that Black Grouse must compensate for the extra energy expenditure elicited by human disturbance. Birds with low initial baseline FCM concentrations were those that spent more time foraging. These FCM excretion and foraging patterns suggest that birds with high initial FCM concentrations might have been experiencing a situation of allostatic overload. The energetic model provides quantitative estimates of extra energy expenditure. A longer exposure to ambient temperatures outside the shelter of snow burrows, following disturbance, could increase the daily energy expenditure by >10%, depending principally on ambient temperature and duration of exposure. This study confirms the predictions of allostatic theory and, to the best of our knowledge, constitutes the first demonstration of a funneling effect. It further establishes that winter recreation activities incur costly allostatic behavioral and energetic adjustments, which call for the creation of winter refuge areas together with the implementation of visitor-steering measures for sensitive wildlife.

Counter-propagating dual-trap optical tweezers based on linear momentum conservation

We present a dual-trap optical tweezers setup which directly measures forces using linear momentum conservation. The setup uses a counter-propagating geometry, which allows momentum measurement on each beam separately. The experimental advantages of this setup include low drift due to all-optical manipulation, and a robust calibration (independent of the features of the trapped object or buffer medium) due to the force measurement method. Although this design does not attain the high-resolution of some co-propagating setups, we show that it can be used to perform different single molecule measurements: fluctuation-based molecular stiffness characterization at different forces and hopping experiments on molecular hairpins. Remarkably, in our setup it is possible to manipulate very short tethers (such as molecular hairpins with short handles) down to the limit where beads are almost in contact. The setup is used to illustrate a novel method for measuring the stiffness of optical traps and tethers on the basis of equilibrium force fluctuations, i.e., without the need of measuring the force vs molecular extension curve. This method is of general interest for dual trap optical tweezers setups and can be extended to setups which do not directly measure forces.

Phylogeography and population genetics of north European Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.)

Although abundant in the number of individuals, the Atlantic salmon may be considered as a threatened species in many areas of its native distribution range. Human activities such as building of power plant dams, offshore overfishing, pollution, clearing of riverbeds for timber floating and badly designed stocking regimes have diminished the distribution of Atlantic salmon. As a result of this, many of the historical populations both in Europe and northern America have gone extinct or are severely depressed. In fact, only 1% of Atlantic salmon existing today are of natural origin, the rest being farmed salmon. All of this has lead to a vast amount of research and many restoration programmes aiming to bring Atlantic salmon back to rivers from where it has vanished. However, many of the restoration programmes conducted thus far have been unsuccessful due to inadequate scientific research or lack of its implementation, highlighting the fact that more research is needed to fully understand the biology of this complex species. The White and Barents Seas in northwest Russia are among the last regions in Europe where Atlantic salmon populations are still stable, thus forming an important source of biodiversity for the entire European region. Salmon stocks from this area are also of immense economic and social importance for the local people in the form of fishing tourism. The main aim of this thesis was to elucidate the post-glacial history and population genetic structure of north European and particularly northwest Russian Atlantic salmon, both of which are aspects of great importance for the management and conservation of the species. Throughout the whole thesis, these populations were studied by utilizing microsatellites as the main molecular tool. One of the most important discoveries of the thesis was the division of Atlantic salmon from the White and Barents Seas into four separate clusters, which has not been observed in previous studies employing nuclear markers although is supported by mtDNA studies. Populations from the western Barents Sea clustered together with the northeast Atlantic populations into a clearly distinguishable group while populations from the White Sea and eastern Barents Sea were separated into three additional groups. This has important conservation implications as this thesis clearly indicates that conservation of populations from all of the observed clusters is warranted in order to conserve as much of the genetic diversity as possible in this area. The thesis also demonstrates how differences in population life histories within a species, migratory behaviour in this case, and in their phylogeographic origin affect the genetic characteristics of populations, namely diversity and divergence levels. The anadromous populations from the Atlantic Ocean, White Sea and Barents Sea possessed higher levels of genetic diversity than the anadromous populations form the Baltic Sea basin. Among the non-anadromous populations the result was the opposite: the Baltic freshwater populations were more variable. This emphasises the importance of taking the life history of a population into consideration when developing conservation strategies: due to the limited possibilities for new genetic diversity to be generated via gene flow, it is expected that freshwater Atlantic salmon populations would be more vulnerable to extinction following a population crash and thus deserve a high conservation status. In the last chapter of this thesis immune relevant marker loci were developed and screened for signatures of natural selection along with loci linked to genes with other functions or no function at all. Also, a novel landscape genomics method, which combines environmental information with molecular data, was employed to investigate whether immune relevant markers displayed significant correlations to various environmental variables more frequently than other loci. Indications of stronger selection pressure among immune-relevant loci compared to non-immune relevant EST-linked loci was found but further studies are needed to evaluate whether it is a common phenomenon in Atlantic salmon.

Conservation banking and the economization of nature : an institutional analysis

During the last decade, conservation banking mechanisms have emerged in the environmental discourse as new market instruments to promote biodiversity conservation. Compensation was already provided for in environmental law in many countries, as the last step of the mitigation hierarchy. The institutional arrangements developed in this context have been redefined and reshaped as market-based instruments (MBIs). As such, they are discursively disentangled from the complex legal-economic nexus they are part of. Monetary transactions are given prominence and tend to be presented as stand alone agreements, whereas they take place in the context of prescriptive regulations. The pro-market narrative featuring conservation banking systems as market-like arrangements as well as their denunciation as instances of nature commodification tend to obscure their actual characteristics. The purpose of this paper is to describe the latter, adopting an explicitly analytical stance on these complex institutional arrangements and their performative dimensions. Beyond the discourse supporting them and notwithstanding the diversity of national policies and regulatory frameworks for compensation, the constitutive force of these mechanisms probably lies in their ability to redefine control, power and the distribution of costs and in their impacts in terms of land use rather than in their efficiency.

The impact of inbound demand on price levels in tourism municipalities : Empirical evidence from Catalonia

It is usually argued that tourism exerts negative economic impacts in host jurisdictions through the increase in prices linked to increasing demand for basic services and goods from tourists. This paper surveys 149 products in 45 tourism and non-tourism jurisdictions in Catalonia (which represent a total of 18,500 prices) in order to test empirically several hypotheses related to differences in price levels in tourism and non-tourism jurisdictions. The main results show that prices in tourism jurisdictions are not significantly higher than those in non-tourism ones. The analysis suggests that tourists are likely to pay higher prices than natives for some products