Experimental investigation of transient natural convection cooling of high prandtl number fluid with variable viscosity

Report for the scientific sojourn at the James Cook University, Australia, between June to December 2007. Free convection in enclosed spaces is found widely in natural and industrial systems. It is a topic of primary interest because in many systems it provides the largest resistance to the heat transfer in comparison with other heat transfer modes. In such systems the convection is driven by a density gradient within the fluid, which, usually, is produced by a temperature difference between the fluid and surrounding walls. In the oil industry, the oil, which has High Prandtl, usually is stored and transported in large tanks at temperatures high enough to keep its viscosity and, thus the pumping requirements, to a reasonable level. A temperature difference between the fluid and the walls of the container may give rise to the unsteady buoyancy force and hence the unsteady natural convection. In the initial period of cooling the natural convection regime dominates over the conduction contribution. As the oil cools down it typically becomes more viscous and this increase of viscosity inhibits the convection. At this point the oil viscosity becomes very large and unloading of the tank becomes very difficult. For this reason it is of primary interest to be able to predict the cooling rate of the oil. The general objective of this work is to develop and validate a simulation tool able to predict the cooling rates of high Prandtl fluid considering the variable viscosity effects.

Common and Idiosyncratic Factors of the Exchange Risk Premium in Emerging European Markets

Existing empirical evidence suggests that the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIRP) condition may not hold due to an exchange risk premium. For a panel data set of eleven emerging European economies we decompose this exchange risk premium into an idiosyncratic (country-specific) elements and a common factor using a principal components approach. We present evidence of a stationary idiosyncratic component and nonstationary common factor. This result leads to the conclusion of a nonstationary risk premium for these countries and a violation of the UIRP in the long-run, which is in contrast to previous studies often documenting a stationary premium in developed countries. Furthermore, we report that the variation in the premium is largely attributable to a common factor influenced by economic developments in the United States.

Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model.

What Belongs Where? Variable Selection for Zero-Inflated Count Models with an Application to the Demand for Health Care

This paper develops stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) for zero-inflated count models which are commonly used in health economics. This allows for either model averaging or model selection in situations with many potential regressors. The proposed techniques are applied to a data set from Germany considering the demand for health care. A package for the free statistical software environment R is provided.

Inverted Haavelmo Effects in a General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Implementing the Scottish Variable Rate of Income Tax.

The Scottish Parliament has the authority to make a balanced-budget expansion or contraction in public expenditure, funded by corresponding local changes in the basic rate of income tax of up to 3p in the pound. This fiscal adjustment is known as the Scottish Variable Rate of income tax, though it has never, as yet, been used. In this paper we attempt to identify the impact on aggregate economic activity in Scotland of implementing these devolved fiscal powers. This is achieved through theoretical analysis and simulation using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Scotland. This analysis generalises the conventional Keynesian model so that negative balanced-budget multipliers values are possible, reflecting a regional “inverted Haavelmo effect”. Key parameters determining the aggregate economic impact are the extent to which the Scottish Government create local amenities valuable to the Scottish population and the extent to which this is incorporated into local wage bargaining.

Bayesian Model Averaging in the Instrumental Variable Regression Model

This paper considers the instrumental variable regression model when there is uncertainty about the set of instruments, exogeneity restrictions, the validity of identifying restrictions and the set of exogenous regressors. This uncertainty can result in a huge number of models. To avoid statistical problems associated with standard model selection procedures, we develop a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that allows us to do Bayesian model averaging. The algorithm is very exible and can be easily adapted to analyze any of the di¤erent priors that have been proposed in the Bayesian instrumental variables literature. We show how to calculate the probability of any relevant restriction (e.g. the posterior probability that over-identifying restrictions hold) and discuss diagnostic checking using the posterior distribution of discrepancy vectors. We illustrate our methods in a returns-to-schooling application.

Seasonal distribution of a relatively rare and a relatively common species of Thecomyia at Belém, Pará, Brazil (Diptera: Sciomyzidae)

O gênero neotropical Thecomyia (Sciomyzidae) consiste de quatro espécies descritas e onze ainda não descritas (Steyskal & Knutson em preparação), sendo a maioria não muito comum. As espécies são muito próximas e grande número delas somente pode ser separado com base na genitália do macho. Somente é conhecida a biologia e uma espécie, T. limbata (Wiedermann), que, preferentemente, preda moluscos aquáticos (Abercrombie & Berg, 1975). A análise de registros de coletas de espécies relativamente raras e relativamente comuns de Thecomyia (172 especimens do Museu Goeldi coletados em Mocambo, Belém, Pará, Brasil) proporcionam informações sobre a distribuição sazonal de espécies tropicais e sua relativa abundância. Deste material 160 especimens pertencem à T. longicornis Perty e 12 à Thecomyia sp. n. A primeira foi registrada durante todos os meses do ano, mas a espécie nova somente durante junho e dezembro, sugerindo esta última uma população de adultos anual bimodal.

Time-consistent fiscal policy under heterogeneity: Conflicting or common interests?

This paper studies the aggregate and distributional implications of Markov-perfect tax-spending policy in a neoclassical growth model with capitalists and workers. Focusing on the long run, our main fi ndings are: (i) it is optimal for a benevolent government, which cares equally about its citizens, to tax capital heavily and to subsidise labour; (ii) a Pareto improving means to reduce ine¢ ciently high capital taxation under discretion is for the government to place greater weight on the welfare of capitalists; (iii) capitalists and workers preferences, regarding the optimal amount of "capitalist bias", are not aligned implying a conflict of interests.

Native language, spoken language, translation and trade

We construct new series for common native language and common spoken language for 195 countries, which we use together with series for common official language and linguis-tic proximity in order to draw inferences about (1) the aggregate impact of all linguistic factors on bilateral trade, (2) whether the linguistic influences come from ethnicity and trust or ease of communication, and (3) in so far they come from ease of communication, to what extent trans-lation and interpreters play a role. The results show that the impact of linguistic factors, all together, is at least twice as great as the usual dummy variable for common language, resting on official language, would say. In addition, ease of communication is far more important than ethnicity and trust. Further, so far as ease of communication is at work, translation and inter-preters are extremely important. Finally, ethnicity and trust come into play largely because of immigrants and their influence is otherwise difficult to detect.

Determinants of hepatitis A vaccine immunity in a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus-infected children living in Switzerland.

Vaccination in HIV-infected children is often less effective than in healthy children. The goal of this study was to assess vaccine responses to hepatitis A virus (HAV) in HIV-infected children. Children of the Swiss Mother and Child HIV Cohort Study (MoCHiV) were enrolled prospectively. Recommendations for initial, catch-up, and additional HAV immunizations were based upon baseline antibody concentrations and vaccine history. HAV IgG was assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with a protective cutoff value defined as ≥10 mIU/ml. Eighty-seven patients were included (median age, 11 years; range, 3.4 to 21.2 years). Forty-two patients were seropositive (48.3%) for HAV. Among 45 (51.7%) seronegative patients, 36 had not received any HAV vaccine dose and were considered naïve. Vaccine responses were assessed after the first dose in 29/35 naïve patients and after the second dose in 33/39 children (25 initially naïve patients, 4 seronegative patients, and 4 seropositive patients that had already received 1 dose of vaccine). Seroconversion was 86% after 1 dose and 97% after 2 doses, with a geometric mean concentration of 962 mIU/ml after the second dose. A baseline CD4(+) T cell count below 750 cells/μl significantly reduced the post-2nd-dose response (P = 0.005). Despite a high rate of seroconversion, patients with CD4(+) T cell counts of <750/μl had lower anti-HAV antibody concentrations. This may translate into a shorter protection time. Hence, monitoring humoral immunity may be necessary to provide supplementary doses as needed.

Native language, spoken language, translation and trade

We construct new series for common native language and common spoken language for 195 countries, which we use together with series for common official language and linguis-tic proximity in order to draw inferences about (1) the aggregate impact of all linguistic factors on bilateral trade, (2) whether the linguistic influences come from ethnicity and trust or ease of communication, and (3) in so far they come from ease of communication, to what extent trans-lation and interpreters play a role. The results show that the impact of linguistic factors, all together, is at least twice as great as the usual dummy variable for common language, resting on official language, would say. In addition, ease of communication is far more important than ethnicity and trust. Further, so far as ease of communication is at work, translation and inter-preters are extremely important. Finally, ethnicity and trust come into play largely because of immigrants and their influence is otherwise difficult to detect.

The Monetary policy rules in Europe: heterogeneity and common patters

The objective of this study is the empirical identification of the monetary policy rules pursued in individual countries of EU before and after the launch of European Monetary Union. In particular, we have employed an estimation of the augmented version of the Taylor rule (TR) for 25 countries of the EU in two periods (1992-1998, 1999-2006). While uniequational estimation methods have been used to identify the policy rules of individual central banks, for the rule of the European Central Bank has been employed a dynamic panel setting. We have found that most central banks really followed some interest rate rule but its form was usually different from the original TR (proposing that domestic interest rate responds only to domestic inflation rate and output gap). Crucial features of policy rules in many countries have been the presence of interest rate smoothing as well as response to foreign interest rate. Any response to domestic macroeconomic variables have been missing in the rules of countries with inflexible exchange rate regimes and the rules consisted in mimicking of the foreign interest rates. While we have found response to long-term interest rates and exchange rate in rules of some countries, the importance of monetary growth and asset prices has been generally negligible. The Taylor principle (the response of interest rates to domestic inflation rate must be more than unity as a necessary condition for achieving the price stability) has been confirmed only in large economies and economies troubled with unsustainable inflation rates. Finally, the deviation of the actual interest rate from the rule-implied target rate can be interpreted as policy shocks (these deviation often coincided with actual turbulent periods).

Experimental infection with Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis, and Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in the marmoset, Callithrix penicillata (Primates: Callithricidae)

Foureen marmosets (Callithrix penicillata) were inoculated intradermally with promastigotes and/or amastigotes of Leishmania (Viannia) brazilensis (L. (V) b.) strains MHOM/BR/83/LTB-300MHOM/BR/85/LTB-12 MHOM/BR/81/LTB-179 and MHOM/BR/82/LTB-250. The evolution of subsequent lesions was studied for 15 to 75 weeks post-inoculation (PI). All but of the L. (V) b. injected marmosets developed a cutaneous lesion at the point of inoculation after 3 to 9 weeks, characterized by the appearance of subcutaneous nodules containing parasites. parasites were isolated by culture (Difco Blood Agar) from all 11 positive animals. The maximum size of the lesions was variable and ranged between 37 mm² to 107 mm². Ulceration of primary nodules became evident after 3 to 12 weeks in all infected marmosets, but was faster and larger in 5 of the 11 animals. The active lesions persisted in 9 out of 11 Callithrix until the en of the observation period, which varied from 15-75 weeks. In 3 animals spontaneous healing of their lesions (13 to 25 weeks, PI) was observed buth with cryptic parasitism. In another 2 infected animals there was regression followed by reactivation of the cutaneous lesions. The appearance of smaller satellite lesions adjacent to primary ones, as well as metastatic lesions to the ear lobes, were documented in 2 animals. Promastigotes of L. (Leishmania) amazonensis (L.(L)a.) MHOM/BR/77/LTB-16 were inoculated in 1 marmoset. This animal remained chronically infected for 6 months and the lesions developed in a similar manner to L.(V)b. infected marmosets. No significant differences in clinical and parasitological behaviour were observed between promastigote or amastigote derived infections of the 2 species. Both produced chronic, long lasting lesions which eventually healed. The same was true for parameters of size and ulceration. Skin tests converted to parasite in 11 of 15 inected masmosets and in 10 of 12 parasite positive animnals. Moderate levels of circulating antibodies were also observed by IFAT /IgG assays. In spite of the failure to reproduce the mucosal form of the disease, an important aspect of the Callithrix model in experimental cutaneous leishmaniasis lies in the reproduction of 2 clinical events that are common in humans, namely, the chronic ulceration and spontaneous healing of the lesions.

Primary Commodity Prices: Co-movements, Common Factors and Fundamentals

The behavior of commodities is critical for developing and developed countries alike. This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the co-movement and determinants of commodity prices. Using nonstationary panel methods, we document a statistically significant degree of co-movement due to a common factor. Within a Factor Augmented VAR approach, real interest rate and uncertainty, as postulated by a simple asset pricing model, are both found to be negatively related to this common factor. This evidence is robust to the inclusion of demand and supply shocks, which both positively impact on the co-movement of commodity prices.