Integración de la industria del gas natural en el Mercosur. Un modelo de redes

El objetivo de este trabajo es identificar la política óptima (considerando producción, transporte y regulación) para la integración de la industria de gas natural en el Mercosur. Se analizarán factores que promueven o limitan la integración en la región. Utilizando un modelo matemático de flujo de redes, se minimizará el costo total (producción y transporte) para la región en su conjunto, satisfaciendo las restricciones de producción, capacidad de transporte y equilibrio (oferta igual a demanda) en cada nodo. El costo total (CT) de la producción y transporte de gas natural (considerando nodos para cada país en la región) es la función objetivo. El proceso de optimización consiste en identificar el nivel de gas natural producido y transportado que minimiza el costo total del sistema para la región. El modelo es estático, no considerando una optimización dinámica con relación a las reservas remanentes. Restricciones Consideramos cuatro restricciones en operación, a saber: 1. Equilibrio en los nodos: esta ecuación establece el equilibrio entre la oferta y la demanda de gas natural en cada nodo. La oferta incluye la producción local y las importaciones. Por su parte, la demanda incluye el consumo doméstico más las exportaciones. 2. Capacidad de producción en cada cuenca: esta restricción establece que las cantidades producidas en cada cuenca debería ser menor o igual a su capacidad de producción. Ello también permite la existencia de una utilización no plena de la capacidad. La capacidad máxima de producción en cada cuenca está determinada sobre la base de una medida de política para cada país a través de la cual el horizonte de consumo de las reservas probadas está establecido. Dada esta relación, el límite sobre la producción de cada año está fijado. En otras palabras, el nivel de producción no está basado ni en la capacidad instalada de producción ni en los precios, sino en la política de agotamiento decidida sobre las reservas probadas en el año de calibración del modelo. Esto permite diferentes escenarios para el análisis. Para las simulaciones se tomó el ratio de reservas a producción en el año de calibración del modelo. 3. Capacidad de transporte: el gas transportado a través de un gasoducto (los operativos y aquellos que están en plan de construcción), en general, y el gas transportado desde cada cuenca a cada mercado, en particular, debería ser menor o igual a la capacidad del gasoducto. 4. Nivel no negativo de gas natural producido: esto evita la existencia de soluciones inconsistentes no sólo desde un punto de vista económico sino también técnico. Referencias Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo BID (2001). Integración Energética en el Mercosur Ampliado, Washington DC. Beato, Paulina and Juan Benavides (2004). Gas Market Integration in the Southern Cone. Inter-American Development Bank. Washington, D.C. Conrad, Jon M. (1999). Resource Economics. Cambridge University Press. United States of America. Dasgupta, P.S. and G. M. Heal (1979). Economic Theory and Exhaustible Resources. Cambridge University Press. United States of America. Dos Santos, Edmilson M, Victorio E. Oxilia Dávalos, and Murilo T. Werneck Fagá (2006). “Natural Gas Integration in Latin America: Forward or Backwards?”. Revue de l’Energie, Nº 571, mai-juin. Fagundes de Almeida, E.L. y Trebat, N. (2004). “Drivers and barriers to cross-border gas trade in the southern cone”. Oil, Gas & Energy Law Intelligence, Vol. 2, Nº 3, Julio. Givogri, Pablo (2007). “Condiciones de abastecimiento y precios de la industria del gas de Argentina en los próximos años”. Fundación Mediterránea. Julio. Córdoba, Argentina. Kozulj, Roberto (2004). “La industria del gas natural en América del Sur: situación y posibilidades de la integración de los mercados”. Serie Recursos Naturales e Infraestructura. Nº 77. CEPAL. Santiago de Chile, Chile. Diciembre.

Auctions for government securities: a laboratory comparison of uniform, discriminatory and spanish designs

The Bank of Spain uses a unique auction format to sell government bonds, which can be seen as a hybrid of a uniform and a discriminatory auction. For winning bids above the average winning bid, buyers are charged the average winning bid, otherwise they pay their respective bids. We report on an experiment that compares this auction format to the discriminatory format, used in most other countries, and to the uniform format. Our design is based on a common value model with multi-unit supply and two-unit demand. The results show significantly higher revenue with the Spanish and the uniform formats than with the discriminatory one, while volatility of prices over time is significantly lower in the discriminatory format than in the Spanish and uniform cases. Actual price dispersion is significantly larger in the discriminatory than in the Spanish. Our data also exhibit the use of bid-spreading strategies in all three designs.

Bidding for the surplus: realizing efficient outcomes in general economic environments

In this paper, we consider two classes of economic environments. In the first type, agents are faced with the task of providing local public goods that will benefit some or all of them. In the second type, economic activity takes place via formation of links. Agents need both to both form a network and decide how to share the output generated. For both scenarios, we suggest a bidding mechanism whereby agents bid for the right to decide upon the organization of the economic activity. The subgame perfect equilibria of this game generate efficient outcomes.

Demand elasticity and market power in the spanish electricity market

In this paper we check whether generator's bid behavior at the Spanish whosale electricity market is consistent with the hypothesis of profit maximization on their residual demands. Using OMEL data, we find the arc-elacticity of the residual demand around the system marginal price. The results suggest thet the larger firms are not actually profit-msximization. We argue how the regulatory environment may drive these results. Finally, we repeat the analysis for the first session of the intra-day market where presumably firms may not have the same incentives as in the day-ahead market.

La Història del projecte olímpic: [Barcelona'92]

Classe impartida per l'historiador Alfred Bosch sobre l'evolució de la candidatura de Barcelona'92 i del Comitè Organitzador en el curs universitari sobre Olimpisme organitzat pel CEO-UAB al febrer de 1992.

La Historia del proyecto olímpico: [Barcelona 92']

Clase impartida por el historiador Alfred Bosch sobre la evolución de la candidatura de Barcelona'92 y del Comité Organizador de los Juegos en el curso universitario sobre Olimpismo organizado por el CEO-UAB en febrero de 1992.

Socio-economic impact of the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games

Paper presented at the 2001 seminar of the International Chair in Olympism (IOC-UAB). The seminar offers a general reflection, from the time of the bid onwards, of the 2000 Games experience in Sydney and Australia.

Stock market volatility and learning

Introducing bounded rationality in a standard consumption-based asset pricing model with time separable preferences strongly improves empirical performance. Learning causes momentum and mean reversion of returns and thereby excess volatility, persistence of price-dividend ratios, long-horizon return predictability and a risk premium, as in the habit model of Campbell and Cochrane (1999), but for lower risk aversion. This is obtained, even though our learning scheme introduces just one free parameter and we only consider learning schemes that imply small deviations from full rationality. The findings are robust to the learning rule used and other model features. What is key is that agents forecast future stock prices using past information on prices.

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Vaniprevir with pegylated interferon alpha-2a and ribavirin in treatment-naïve patients with chronic hepatitis C: a randomized phase II study.

Vaniprevir (MK-7009) is a macrocyclic hepatitis C virus (HCV) nonstructural protein 3/4A protease inhibitor. The aim of the present phase II study was to examine virologic response rates with vaniprevir in combination with pegylated interferon alpha-2a (Peg-IFN-α-2a) plus ribavirin (RBV). In this double-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-ranging study, treatment-naïve patients with HCV genotype 1 infection (n = 94) were randomized to receive open-label Peg-IFN-α-2a (180 μg/week) and RBV (1,000-1,200 mg/day) in combination with blinded placebo or vaniprevir (300 mg twice-daily [BID], 600 mg BID, 600 mg once-daily [QD], or 800 mg QD) for 28 days, then open-label Peg-IFN-α-2a and RBV for an additional 44 weeks. The primary efficacy endpoint was rapid viral response (RVR), defined as undetectable plasma HCV RNA at week 4. Across all doses, vaniprevir was associated with a rapid two-phase decline in viral load, with HCV RNA levels approximately 3 log(10) IU/mL lower in vaniprevir-treated patients, compared to placebo recipients. Rates of RVR were significantly higher in each of the vaniprevir dose groups, compared to the control regimen (68.8%-83.3% versus 5.6%; P < 0.001 for all comparisons). There were numerically higher, but not statistically significant, early and sustained virologic response rates with vaniprevir, as compared to placebo. Resistance profile was predictable, with variants at R155 and D168 detected in a small number of patients. No relationship between interleukin-28B genotype and treatment outcomes was demonstrated in this study. The incidence of adverse events was generally comparable between vaniprevir and placebo recipients; however, vomiting appeared to be more common at higher vaniprevir doses. CONCLUSION: Vaniprevir is a potent HCV protease inhibitor with a predictable resistance profile and favorable safety profile that is suitable for QD or BID administration.

A priori ratemaking using bivariate poisson regression models

In automobile insurance, it is useful to achieve a priori ratemaking by resorting to gene- ralized linear models, and here the Poisson regression model constitutes the most widely accepted basis. However, insurance companies distinguish between claims with or without bodily injuries, or claims with full or partial liability of the insured driver. This paper exa- mines an a priori ratemaking procedure when including two di®erent types of claim. When assuming independence between claim types, the premium can be obtained by summing the premiums for each type of guarantee and is dependent on the rating factors chosen. If the independence assumption is relaxed, then it is unclear as to how the tari® system might be a®ected. In order to answer this question, bivariate Poisson regression models, suitable for paired count data exhibiting correlation, are introduced. It is shown that the usual independence assumption is unrealistic here. These models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database containing 80,994 contracts belonging to a Spanish insurance company. Finally, the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using a bivariate Poisson regression model are analysed.

Angiotensin II receptor blockade: is there truly a benefit of adding an ACE inhibitor?

We assessed the blockade of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) achieved with 2 angiotensin (Ang) antagonists given either alone at different doses or with an ACE inhibitor. First, 20 normotensive subjects were randomly assigned to 100 mg OD losartan (LOS) or 80 mg OD telmisartan (TEL) for 1 week; during another week, the same doses of LOS and TEL were combined with 20 mg OD lisinopril. Then, 10 subjects were randomly assigned to 200 mg OD LOS and 160 mg OD TEL for 1 week and 100 mg BID LOS and 80 mg BID TEL during the second week. Blockade of the RAS was evaluated with the inhibition of the pressor effect of exogenous Ang I, an ex vivo receptor assay, and the changes in plasma Ang II. Trough blood pressure response to Ang I was blocked by 35+/-16% (mean+/-SD) with 100 mg OD LOS and by 36+/-13% with 80 mg OD TEL. When combined with lisinopril, blockade was 76+/-7% with LOS and 79+/-9% with TEL. With 200 mg OD LOS, trough blockade was 54+/-14%, but with 100 mg BID it increased to 77+/-8% (P<0.01). Telmisartan (160 mg OD and 80 mg BID) produced a comparable effect. Thus, at their maximal recommended doses, neither LOS nor TEL blocks the RAS for 24 hours; hence, the addition of an ACE inhibitor provides an additional blockade. A 24-hour blockade can be achieved with an angiotensin antagonist alone, provided higher doses or a BID regimen is used.

The Complete Information First. Price Auction or the Importance of Being Indivisible

Abstract Despite the popularity of auction theoretical thinking, it appears that no one has presented an elementary equilibrium analysis of the first-price sealed-bid auction mechanism under complete information. This paper aims to remedy that omission. We show that the existence of pure strategy undominated Nash equilibria requires that the bidding space is not "too divisible" (that is, a continuum). In fact, when bids must form part of a finite grid there always exists a "high price equilibrium". However, there might also be "low price equilibria" and when the bidding space is very restrictive the revenue obtained in these "low price equilibria" might be very low. We discuss the properties of the equilibria and an application of auction theoretical thinking in which "low price equilibria" may be relevant. Keywords: First-price auctions, undominated Nash equilibria. JEL Classification Numbers: C72 (Noncooperative Games), D44 (Auctions).

Flying High and Laying Low in the Public and Private Sectors: A Comparison of Pay Differentials for Full-Time Male Employees in Britain

Using new linked employee-employer data for Britain in 2004, this paper shows that, on average, full-time male public sector employees earn 11.7 log wage points more than their private sector counterparts. Decomposition analysis reveals that the majority of this pay premium is associated with public sector employees having individual characteristics associated with higher pay and to their working in higher paid occupations. Further focussing analysis on the highly skilled and unskilled occupations in both sectors, reveals evidence of workplace segregation positively impacting on earnings in the private sector for the highly skilled, and in the public sector for the unskilled. Substantial earnings gaps between the highly skilled and unskilled are found, and the unexplained components in these gaps are very similar regardless of sector.

Financial shocks and the US business cycle

Employing the financial accelerator (FA) model of Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999) enhanced to include a shock to the FA mechanism, we construct and study shocks to the efficiency of the financial sector in post-war US business cycles. We find that financial shocks are very tightly linked with the onset of recessions, more so than TFP or monetary shocks. The financial shock invariably remains contractionary for sometime after recessions have ended. The shock accounts for a large part of the variance of GDP and is strongly negatively correlated with the external finance premium. Second-moments comparisons across variants of the model with and without a (stochastic) FA mechanism suggests the stochastic FA model helps us understand the data.