942 resultados para Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average Model with exogenous inputs


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This paper explores the potential usefulness of an AGE model with the Melitz-type trade specification to assess economic effects of technical regulations, taking the case of the EU ELV/RoHS directives as an example. Simulation experiments reveal that: (1) raising the fixed exporting cost to make sales in the EU market brings results that exports of the targeted commodities (motor vehicles and parts for ELV and electronic equipment for RoHS) to the EU from outside regions/countries expand while the domestic trade in the EU shrinks when the importer's preference for variety (PfV) is not strong; (2) if the PfV is not strong, policy changes that may bring reduction in the number of firms enable survived producers with high productivity to expand production to be large-scale mass producers fully enjoying the fruit of economies of scale; and (3) When the strength of the importer's PfV is changed from zero to unity, there is the value that totally changes simulation results and their interpretations.

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Growing scarcity, increasing demand and bad management of water resources are causing weighty competition for water and consequently managers are facing more and more pressure in an attempt to satisfy users? requirement. In many regions agriculture is one of the most important users at river basin scale since it concentrates high volumes of water consumption during relatively short periods (irrigation season), with a significant economic, social and environmental impact. The interdisciplinary characteristics of related water resources problems require, as established in the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC, an integrated and participative approach to water management and assigns an essential role to economic analysis as a decision support tool. For this reason, a methodology is developed to analyse the economic and environmental implications of water resource management under different scenarios, with a focus on the agricultural sector. This research integrates both economic and hydrologic components in modelling, defining scenarios of water resource management with the goal of preventing critical situations, such as droughts. The model follows the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) approach, an innovative methodology successfully used for agricultural policy analysis in the last decade and also applied in several analyses regarding water use in agriculture. This approach has, among others, the very important capability of perfectly calibrating the baseline scenario using a very limited database. However one important disadvantage is its limited capacity to simulate activities non-observed during the reference period but which could be adopted if the scenario changed. To overcome this problem the classical methodology is extended in order to simulate a more realistic farmers? response to new agricultural policies or modified water availability. In this way an economic model has been developed to reproduce the farmers? behaviour within two irrigation districts in the Tiber High Valley. This economic model is then integrated with SIMBAT, an hydrologic model developed for the Tiber basin which allows to simulate the balance between the water volumes available at the Montedoglio dam and the water volumes required by the various irrigation users.

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Ferromanganese nodule fields and hardgrounds have recently been discovered in the Cadiz Contourite Channel in the Gulf of Cadiz (850–1000 m). This channel is part of a large contourite depositional system generated by the Mediterranean Outflow Water. Ferromanganese deposits linked to contourites are interesting tools for palaeoenviromental studies and show an increasing economic interest as potential mineral resources for base and strategic metals. We present a complete characterisation of these deposits based on submarine photographs and geophysical, petrographic, mineralogical and geochemical data. The genesis and growth of ferromanganese deposits, strongly enriched in Fe vs. Mn (av. 39% vs. 6%) in this contourite depositional system result from the combination of hydrogenetic and diagenetic processes. The interaction of the Mediterranean Outflow Water with the continental margin has led to the formation of Late Pleistocene–Holocene ferromanganese mineral deposits, in parallel to the evolution of the contourite depositional system triggered by climatic and tectonic events. The diagenetic growth was fuelled by the anaerobic oxidation of thermogenic hydrocarbons (δ13CPDB=−20 to −37‰) and organic matter within the channel floor sediments, promoting the formation of Fe–Mn carbonate nodules. High 87Sr/86Sr isotopic values (up to 0.70993±0.00025) observed in the inner parts of nodules are related to the influence of radiogenic fluids fuelled by deep-seated fluid venting across the fault systems in the diapirs below the Cadiz Contourite Channel. Erosive action of the Mediterranean Outflow Water undercurrent could have exhumed the Fe–Mn carbonate nodules, especially in the glacial periods, when the lower core of the undercurrent was more active in the study area. The growth rate determined by 230Thexcess/232Th was 113±11 mm/Ma, supporting the hypothesis that the growth of the nodules records palaeoenvironmental changes during the last 70 ka. Ca-rich layers in the nodules could point to the interaction between the Mediterranean Outflow Water and the North Atlantic Deep Water during the Heinrich events. Siderite–rhodochrosite nodules exposed to the oxidising seabottom waters were replaced by Fe–Mn oxyhydroxides. Slow hydrogenetic growth of goethite from the seawaters is observed in the outermost parts of the exhumed nodules and hardgrounds, which show imprints of the Mediterranean Outflow Water with low 87Sr/86Sr isotopic values (down to 0.70693±0.00081). We propose a new genetic and evolutionary model for ferromanganese oxide nodules derived from ferromanganese carbonate nodules formed on continental margins above the carbonate compensation depth and dominated by hydrocarbon seepage structures and strong erosive action of bottom currents. We also compare and discuss the generation of ferromanganese deposits in the Cadiz Contourite Channel with that in other locations and suggest that our model can be applied to ferromanganiferous deposits in other contouritic systems affected by fluid venting.

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Lateral moving optics along straight path has already been studied in the past. However, their relative small angular range can be a limitation to potential applications. In this work, a new design concept of SMS moving optics is developed, in which the movement is no longer lateral but follows a curved trajectory, which is calculated in the design process. We have chosen an afocal system, which aim to direct the parallel rays of large incident angles to parallel output rays, and we have obtained that the RMS of the divergence angle of the output rays remains below 1 degree within a input angular range of ±45 output. Potential applications of this beam-steering device are: skylights to provide steerable natural illumination, building integrated CPV systems, and steerable LED illumination.

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In this paper, we introduce B2DI model that extends BDI model to perform Bayesian inference under uncertainty. For scalability and flexibility purposes, Multiply Sectioned Bayesian Network (MSBN) technology has been selected and adapted to BDI agent reasoning. A belief update mechanism has been defined for agents, whose belief models are connected by public shared beliefs, and the certainty of these beliefs is updated based on MSBN. The classical BDI agent architecture has been extended in order to manage uncertainty using Bayesian reasoning. The resulting extended model, so-called B2DI, proposes a new control loop. The proposed B2DI model has been evaluated in a network fault diagnosis scenario. The evaluation has compared this model with two previously developed agent models. The evaluation has been carried out with a real testbed diagnosis scenario using JADEX. As a result, the proposed model exhibits significant improvements in the cost and time required to carry out a reliable diagnosis.

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Today P2P faces two important challenges: design of mechanisms to encourage users' collaboration in multimedia live streaming services; design of reliable algorithms with QoS provision, to encourage the multimedia providers employ the P2P topology in commercial live streaming systems. We believe that these two challenges are tightly-related and there is much to be done with respect. This paper analyzes the effect of user behavior in a multi-tree P2P overlay and describes a business model based on monetary discount as incentive in a P2P-Cloud multimedia streaming system. We believe a discount model can boost up users' cooperation and loyalty and enhance the overall system integrity and performance. Moreover the model bounds the constraints for a provider's revenue and cost if the P2P system is leveraged on a cloud infrastructure. Our case study shows that a streaming system provider can establish or adapt his business model by applying the described bounds to achieve a good discount-revenue trade-off and promote the system to the users.

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Effects of considering the particle comminution rate -kc- in addition to particle rumen outflow -kp- and the ruminal microbial contamination on estimates of by-pass and intestinal digestibility of DM, organic matter and crude protein were examined in perennial ryegrass and oat hays. By-pass kc-kp-based values of amino acids were also determined. This study was performed using particle transit, in situ and 15N techniques on three rumen and duodenum-cannulated wethers. The above estimates were determined using composite samples from rumen-incubated residues representative of feed by-pass. Considering the comminution rate, kc, modified the contribution of the incubated residues to these samples in both hays and revealed a higher microbial contamination, consistently in oat hay and only as a tendency for crude protein in ryegrass hay. Not considering kc or rumen microbial contamination overvalued by-pass and intestinal digestibility in both hays. Therefore, non-microbial-corrected kp-based values of intestinal digested crude protein were overestimated as compared with corrected and kc-kp-based values in ryegrass hay -17.4 vs 4.40%- and in oat hay -5.73 vs 0.19%-. Both factors should be considered to obtain accurate in situ estimates in grasses, as the protein value of grasses is very conditioned by the microbial synthesis derived from their ruminal fermentation. Consistent overvaluations of amino acid by-pass due to not correcting microbial contamination were detected in both hays, with large variable errors among amino acids. A similar degradation pattern of amino acids was recorded in both hays. Cysteine, methionine, leucine and valine were the most degradation-resistant amino acids.

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The study of the response of mechanical systems to external excitations, even in the simplest cases, involves solving second-order ordinary differential equations or systems thereof. Finding the natural frequencies of a system and understanding the effect of variations of the excitation frequencies on the response of the system are essential when designing mechanisms [1] and structures [2]. However, faced with the mathematical complexity of the problem, students tend to focus on the mathematical resolution rather than on the interpretation of the results. To overcome this difficulty, once the general theoretical problem and its solution through the state space [3] have been presented, Matlab®[4] and Simulink®[5] are used to simulate specific situations. Without them, the discussion of the effect of slight variations in input variables on the outcome of the model becomes burdensome due to the excessive calculation time required. Conversely, with the help of those simulation tools, students can easily reach practical conclusions and their evaluation can be based on their interpretation of results and not on their mathematical skills

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In this paper we consider a system of three parabolic equations modeling the behavior of two biological species moving attracted by a chemical factor. The chemical substance verifies a parabolic equation with slow diffusion. The system contains second order terms in the first two equations modeling the chemotactic effects. We apply an iterative method to obtain the global existence of solutions using that the total mass of the biological species is conserved. The stability of the homogeneous steady states is studied by using an energy method. A final example is presented to illustrate the theoretical results.

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A coupled elastoplastic-damage constitutive model with Lode angle dependent failure criterion for high strain and ballistic applications is presented. A Lode angle dependent function is added to the equivalent plastic strain to failure definition of the Johnson–Cook failure criterion. The weakening in the elastic law and in the Johnson–Cook-like constitutive relation implicitly introduces the Lode angle dependency in the elastoplastic behaviour. The material model is calibrated for precipitation hardened Inconel 718 nickel-base superalloy. The combination of a Lode angle dependent failure criterion with weakened constitutive equations is proven to predict fracture patterns of the mechanical tests performed and provide reliable results. Additionally, the mesh size dependency on the prediction of the fracture patterns was studied, showing that was crucial to predict such patterns

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A non-local gradient-based damage formulation within a geometrically non-linear set- ting is presented. The hyperelastic constitutive response at local material point level is governed by a strain energy function which is additively composed by an isotropic neo-Hookean matrix and by an anisotropic fibre-reinforced material based on the model proposed by T. Gasser, R. Ogden, and G. Holzapfel.

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This paper presents an approach for the detection, localization and following of dynamic terrestrial objects using a mini-UAV. The development is intended to be used for surveillance of large infrastructures. The detection algorithm is based on finding several pre-defined characteristics of the target, such as color, shape and size. The process used to localize the target, once it is detected, is based on an inversion of the Pinhole camera model. The task of following the Summit XL was designed to keep the target inside the field of view of the camera, and it was implemented in the form of a PID controller. The system has been tested both in simulation and with real robots, showing promising results.

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We treat graphoid and separoid structures within the mathematical framework of model theory, specially suited for representing and analysing axiomatic systems with multiple semantics. We represent the graphoid axiom set in model theory, and translate algebraic separoid structures to another axiom set over the same symbols as graphoids. This brings both structures to a common, sound theoretical ground where they can be fairly compared. Our contribution further serves as a bridge between the most recent developments in formal logic research, and the well-known graphoid applications in probabilistic graphical modelling.

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The Escherichia coli umuDC operon is induced in response to replication-blocking DNA lesions as part of the SOS response. UmuD protein then undergoes an RecA-facilitated self-cleavage reaction that removes its N-terminal 24 residues to yield UmuD′. UmuD′, UmuC, RecA, and some form of the E. coli replicative DNA polymerase, DNA polymerase III holoenzyme, function in translesion synthesis, the potentially mutagenic process of replication over otherwise blocking lesions. Furthermore, it has been proposed that, before cleavage, UmuD together with UmuC acts as a DNA damage checkpoint system that regulates the rate of DNA synthesis in response to DNA damage, thereby allowing time for accurate repair to take place. Here we provide direct evidence that both uncleaved UmuD and UmuD′ interact physically with the catalytic, proofreading, and processivity subunits of the E. coli replicative polymerase. Consistent with our model proposing that uncleaved UmuD and UmuD′ promote different events, UmuD and UmuD′ interact differently with DNA polymerase III: whereas uncleaved UmuD interacts more strongly with β than it does with α, UmuD′ interacts more strongly with α than it does with β. We propose that the protein–protein interactions we have characterized are part of a higher-order regulatory system of replication fork management that controls when the umuDC gene products can gain access to the replication fork.

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Thyrotropin-releasing hormone (TRH) is a brain hypothalamic hormone that regulates thyrotropin (TSH) secretion from the anterior pituitary and is ubiquitously distributed throughout the brain and other tissues including pancreas. To facilitate studies into the role of endogenous TRH, we have used homologous recombination to generate mice that lack TRH. These TRH−/− mice are viable, fertile, and exhibit normal development. However, they showed obvious hypothyroidism with characteristic elevation of serum TSH level and diminished TSH biological activity. Their anterior pituitaries exhibited an apparent decrease in TSH immunopositive cells that was not due to hypothyroidism. Furthermore, this decrease could be reversed by TRH, but not thyroid hormone replacement, suggesting a direct involvement of TRH in the regulation of thyrotrophs. The TRH−/− mice also exhibited hyperglycemia, which was accompanied by impaired insulin secretion in response to glucose. These findings indicate that TRH−/− mice provide a model of exploiting tertiary hypothyroidism, and that TRH gene abnormalities cause disturbance of insulin secretion resulting in marked hyperglycemia.