Worst inputs and a bound on the highest peak statistics of a class of non-linear systems

A method is developed by which the input leading to the highest possible response in an interval of time can be determined for a class of non-linear systems. The input, if deterministic, is constrained to have a known finite energy (or norm) in the interval under consideration. In the case of random inputs, the energy is constrained to have a known probability distribution function. The approach has applications when a system has to be put to maximum advantage by getting the largest possible output or when a system has to be designed to the highest maximum response with only the input energy or the energy distribution known. The method is also useful in arriving at a bound on the highest peak distribution of the response, when the excitation is a known random process.As an illustration the Duffing oscillator has been analysed and some numerical results have also been presented.

Essays on the Linkages Between Financial Markets, and Risk Asymmetries (summary section only)

During the last few decades there have been far going financial market deregulation, technical development, advances in information technology, and standardization of legislation between countries. As a result, one can expect that financial markets have grown more interlinked. The proper understanding of the cross-market linkages has implications for investment and risk management, diversification, asset pricing, and regulation. The purpose of this research is to assess the degree of price, return, and volatility linkages between both geographic markets and asset categories within one country, Finland. Another purpose is to analyze risk asymmetries, i.e., the tendency of equity risk to be higher after negative events than after positive events of equal magnitude. The analysis is conducted both with respect to total risk (volatility), and systematic risk (beta). The thesis consists of an introductory part and four essays. The first essay studies to which extent international stock prices comove. The degree of comovements is low, indicating benefits from international diversification. The second essay examines the degree to which the Finnish market is linked to the “world market”. The total risk is divided into two parts, one relating to world factors, and one relating to domestic factors. The impact of world factors has increased over time. After 1993, when foreign investors were allowed to freely invest in Finnish assets, the risk level has been higher than previously. This was also the case during the economic recession in the beginning of the 1990’s. The third essay focuses on the stock, bond, and money markets in Finland. According to a trading model, the degree of volatility linkages should be strong. However, the results contradict this. The linkages are surprisingly weak, even negative. The stock market is the most independent, while the money market is affected by events on the two other markets. The fourth essay concentrates on volatility and beta asymmetries. Contrary to many international studies there are only few cases of risk asymmetries. When they occur, they tend to be driven by the market-wide component rather than the portfolio specific element.

Topics in Spatial Econometrics - With Applications to House Prices

Topics in Spatial Econometrics — With Applications to House Prices Spatial effects in data occur when geographical closeness of observations influences the relation between the observations. When two points on a map are close to each other, the observed values on a variable at those points tend to be similar. The further away the two points are from each other, the less similar the observed values tend to be. Recent technical developments, geographical information systems (GIS) and global positioning systems (GPS) have brought about a renewed interest in spatial matters. For instance, it is possible to observe the exact location of an observation and combine it with other characteristics. Spatial econometrics integrates spatial aspects into econometric models and analysis. The thesis concentrates mainly on methodological issues, but the findings are illustrated by empirical studies on house price data. The thesis consists of an introductory chapter and four essays. The introductory chapter presents an overview of topics and problems in spatial econometrics. It discusses spatial effects, spatial weights matrices, especially k-nearest neighbours weights matrices, and various spatial econometric models, as well as estimation methods and inference. Further, the problem of omitted variables, a few computational and empirical aspects, the bootstrap procedure and the spatial J-test are presented. In addition, a discussion on hedonic house price models is included. In the first essay a comparison is made between spatial econometrics and time series analysis. By restricting the attention to unilateral spatial autoregressive processes, it is shown that a unilateral spatial autoregression, which enjoys similar properties as an autoregression with time series, can be defined. By an empirical study on house price data the second essay shows that it is possible to form coordinate-based, spatially autoregressive variables, which are at least to some extent able to replace the spatial structure in a spatial econometric model. In the third essay a strategy for specifying a k-nearest neighbours weights matrix by applying the spatial J-test is suggested, studied and demonstrated. In the final fourth essay the properties of the asymptotic spatial J-test are further examined. A simulation study shows that the spatial J-test can be used for distinguishing between general spatial models with different k-nearest neighbours weights matrices. A bootstrap spatial J-test is suggested to correct the size of the asymptotic test in small samples.

Monetary Policy, Stock Price Misalignments and Macroeconomic Instability

Perhaps the most fundamental prediction of financial theory is that the expected returns on financial assets are determined by the amount of risk contained in their payoffs. Assets with a riskier payoff pattern should provide higher expected returns than assets that are otherwise similar but provide payoffs that contain less risk. Financial theory also predicts that not all types of risks should be compensated with higher expected returns. It is well-known that the asset-specific risk can be diversified away, whereas the systematic component of risk that affects all assets remains even in large portfolios. Thus, the asset-specific risk that the investor can easily get rid of by diversification should not lead to higher expected returns, and only the shared movement of individual asset returns – the sensitivity of these assets to a set of systematic risk factors – should matter for asset pricing. It is within this framework that this thesis is situated. The first essay proposes a new systematic risk factor, hypothesized to be correlated with changes in investor risk aversion, which manages to explain a large fraction of the return variation in the cross-section of stock returns. The second and third essays investigate the pricing of asset-specific risk, uncorrelated with commonly used risk factors, in the cross-section of stock returns. The three essays mentioned above use stock market data from the U.S. The fourth essay presents a new total return stock market index for the Finnish stock market beginning from the opening of the Helsinki Stock Exchange in 1912 and ending in 1969 when other total return indices become available. Because a total return stock market index for the period prior to 1970 has not been available before, academics and stock market participants have not known the historical return that stock market investors in Finland could have achieved on their investments. The new stock market index presented in essay 4 makes it possible, for the first time, to calculate the historical average return on the Finnish stock market and to conduct further studies that require long time-series of data.

Pocket Statistics 2011

A compact selection of statistics on the social security programmes administered by the Kela. Including both tables and charts, the Pocket statistics presents key data on the benefits provided by the Kela, supplemented by selected data about programmes administered by other organizations. Most of the data is updated to the end of 2010, with some of the presentations extending into 2011.

The Mechanics and Statistics of Active Matter

Active particles contain internal degrees of freedom with the ability to take in and dissipate energy and, in the process, execute systematic movement. Examples include all living organisms and their motile constituents such as molecular motors. This article reviews recent progress in applying the principles of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics and hydrodynamics to form a systematic theory of the behavior of collections of active particles-active matter-with only minimal regard to microscopic details. A unified view of the many kinds of active matter is presented, encompassing not only living systems but inanimate analogs. Theory and experiment are discussed side by side.

How to write a passable technical paper

In my job I see many students who have not learned to write a technical paper. When they do competent work, I want them to be able to write passable reports. This article is for them. There are well established principles for citing the relevant work of others; for not copying things without giving credit; for not stealing. If a reader feels you have copied anything, a figure, even a phrase, from elsewhere without citing its source, then you are guilty of plagiarism in the eyes of that reader. Committing plagiarism is so bad that I cannot do justice to it here. So I merely say: never do it. On, then, to writing your own honest and original material. Art requires talent. In contrast, through discipline and persistence alone, you can learn how to differentiate functions and ride bicycles. Similarly, you can write a passable technical paper. You just have to realize that your job does not end with research. Writing a passable paper involves extra work.

Characterization of unitary processes with independent and stationary increments

This is a continuation of the earlier work (Publ. Res. Inst. Math. Sci. 45 (2009) 745-785) to characterize unitary stationary independent increment Gaussian processes. The earlier assumption of uniform continuity is replaced by weak continuity and with technical assumptions on the domain of the generator, unitary equivalence of the process to the solution of an appropriate Hudson-Parthasarathy equation is proved.

Public and private technical assistance programs for non-industrial private forest landowners in the southern United States.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

Global, Local and Vector-Valued Tb Theorems on Non-Homogeneous Metric Spaces

Various Tb theorems play a key role in the modern harmonic analysis. They provide characterizations for the boundedness of Calderón-Zygmund type singular integral operators. The general philosophy is that to conclude the boundedness of an operator T on some function space, one needs only to test it on some suitable function b. The main object of this dissertation is to prove very general Tb theorems. The dissertation consists of four research articles and an introductory part. The framework is general with respect to the domain (a metric space), the measure (an upper doubling measure) and the range (a UMD Banach space). Moreover, the used testing conditions are weak. In the first article a (global) Tb theorem on non-homogeneous metric spaces is proved. One of the main technical components is the construction of a randomization procedure for the metric dyadic cubes. The difficulty lies in the fact that metric spaces do not, in general, have a translation group. Also, the measures considered are more general than in the existing literature. This generality is genuinely important for some applications, including the result of Volberg and Wick concerning the characterization of measures for which the analytic Besov-Sobolev space embeds continuously into the space of square integrable functions. In the second article a vector-valued extension of the main result of the first article is considered. This theorem is a new contribution to the vector-valued literature, since previously such general domains and measures were not allowed. The third article deals with local Tb theorems both in the homogeneous and non-homogeneous situations. A modified version of the general non-homogeneous proof technique of Nazarov, Treil and Volberg is extended to cover the case of upper doubling measures. This technique is also used in the homogeneous setting to prove local Tb theorems with weak testing conditions introduced by Auscher, Hofmann, Muscalu, Tao and Thiele. This gives a completely new and direct proof of such results utilizing the full force of non-homogeneous analysis. The final article has to do with sharp weighted theory for maximal truncations of Calderón-Zygmund operators. This includes a reduction to certain Sawyer-type testing conditions, which are in the spirit of Tb theorems and thus of the dissertation. The article extends the sharp bounds previously known only for untruncated operators, and also proves sharp weak type results, which are new even for untruncated operators. New techniques are introduced to overcome the difficulties introduced by the non-linearity of maximal truncations.

Implications of the recent high statistics determination of the pion electromagnetic form factor in the timelike region

The recently evaluated two-pion contribution to the muon g - 2 and the phase of the pion electromagnetic form factor in the elastic region, known from pi pi scattering by Fermi-Watson theorem, are exploited by analytic techniques for finding correlations between the coefficients of the Taylor expansion at t = 0 and the values of the form factor at several points in the spacelike region. We do not use specific parametrizations, and the results are fully independent of the unknown phase in the inelastic region. Using for instance, from recent determinations, < r(pi)(2)> = (0.435 +/- 0.005) fm(2) and F(-1.6 GeV2) = 0.243(-0.014)(+0.022), we obtain the allowed ranges 3.75 GeV-4 less than or similar to c less than or similar to 3.98 GeV-4 and 9.91 GeV-6 less than or similar to d less than or similar to 10.46 GeV-6 for the curvature and the next Taylor coefficient, with a strong correlation between them. We also predict a large region in the complex plane where the form factor cannot have zeros.