The effect of changing the built environment on physical activity: a quantitative review of the risk of bias in natural experiments.

BACKGROUND:
Evidence regarding the association of the built environment with physical activity is influencing policy recommendations that advocate changing the built environment to increase population-level physical activity. However, to date there has been no rigorous appraisal of the quality of the evidence on the effects of changing the built environment. The aim of this review was to conduct a thorough quantitative appraisal of the risk of bias present in those natural experiments with the strongest experimental designs for assessing the causal effects of the built environment on physical activity.

METHODS:
Eligible studies had to evaluate the effects of changing the built environment on physical activity, include at least one measurement before and one measurement of physical activity after changes in the environment, and have at least one intervention site and non-intervention comparison site. Given the large number of systematic reviews in this area, studies were identified from three exemplar systematic reviews; these were published in the past five years and were selected to provide a range of different built environment interventions. The risk of bias in these studies was analysed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Assessment Tool: for Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions (ACROBAT-NRSI).

RESULTS:
Twelve eligible natural experiments were identified. Risk of bias assessments were conducted for each physical activity outcome from all studies, resulting in a total of fifteen outcomes being analysed. Intervention sites included parks, urban greenways/trails, bicycle lanes, paths, vacant lots, and a senior citizen's centre. All outcomes had an overall critical (n = 12) or serious (n = 3) risk of bias. Domains with the highest risk of bias were confounding (due to inadequate control sites and poor control of confounding variables), measurement of outcomes, and selection of the reported result.

CONCLUSIONS:
The present review focused on the strongest natural experiments conducted to date. Given this, the failure of existing studies to adequately control for potential sources of bias highlights the need for more rigorous research to underpin policy recommendations for changing the built environment to increase physical activity. Suggestions are proposed for how future natural experiments in this area can be improved.

Central banking and inequalities: taking off the blinders

What is the relation between monetary policy and inequalities in income and wealth? This question has received insufficient attention, especially in light of the unconventional policies introduced since the 2008 financial crisis. The article analyzes three ways in which the concern central banks show for inequalities in their official statements remains incomplete and underdeveloped. First, central banks tend to care about inequality for instrumental reasons only. When they do assign intrinsic value to containing inequalities, they shy away from trade-offs with the standard objectives of monetary policy that such a position entails. Second, central banks play down the causal impact monetary policy has on inequalities. When they do acknowledge it, they defend their actions by claiming that it is an unintended side effect, that it is temporary, and/or that any alternative policy would fare even worse. The article appeals to the doctrine of double effect to criticize these arguments. Third, even if one accepts that inequalities should be contained and that today’s monetary policies exacerbate them, is it both desirable and feasible to make containing inequalities part of the mandate of central banks? The article analyzes and rejects three attempts on the part of central banks to answer this question negatively.

Hydrogenated Fat Diet Intake during Pregnancy and Lactation Modifies the PAI-1 Gene Expression in White Adipose Tissue of Offspring in Adult Life

We examine whether feeding pregnant and lactating rats hydrogenated fats rich in trans fatty acids modifies the plasma lipid profiles and the expression of adipokines involved with insulin resistance and cardiovascular disease in their 90-day-old offspring. Pregnant and lactating Wistar rats were fed with either a control diet (C group) or one enriched with hydrogenated vegetable fat (T group). Upon weaning, the male pups were sorted into four groups: CC, mothers were receiving C and pups were kept on C; CT, mothers were receiving C and pups were fed with T; TT, mothers were receiving T and pups were kept on T; TC, mothers were receiving T and pups were fed with C. Pups' food intake and body weight were quantified weekly and the pups were killed at day 90 of life by decapitation. Blood and carcass as well as retroperitoneal, epididymal, and subcutaneous white adipose tissues were collected. Food intake and body weight were lower in TC and TT, and metabolic efficiency was reduced in TT. Offspring of TT and TC rats had increased white adipose tissue PAI-1 gene expression. Insulin receptor was higher in TT than other groups. Ingestion of hydrogenated vegetable fat by the mother during gestation and lactation could promote deleterious consequences, even after the withdrawal of the causal factor.

Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Espirito de catimbo: a moral magico-religiosa da jurema

This participative research interested in the social praxis attempts to understand the moral principles that set the magic rituals and the places of worship of three jurema centers of the potiguar region of Canguaretama. Among other inner particularly aspects of each focused catimbó-jurema center, it is being discussed the collective standards involved in the reliance and fellowship values assumed in the private magical gatherings by the juremeiras leaders and their partners, in contrast to the prestige seeking and the individualism that influence both the symbolic competitions and the witchcraft works that link these agents to the broader catimbozeiro universe of this region. Finally, the moral practices which make part of the juremeiro left-right dualism are investigated based on the understanding that the referred native pantheonic-ritual dichotomy does not necessarily express two moralities substantially adversed in terms of benefits or harms, but a series of moral actions subject to the specular logic of the tit-for tat. Thus, this research seeks to prove that this moral structure of symbolic reciprocity, as well as the witchcraft centrality in the catimbozeiro world, finds a certain causal link in a world view which guiding principle is the ontological evil of the catholic cosmology

An IP capable data link layer protocol for narrow band half-duplex packet data radio networks

The wide adaptation of Internet Protocol (IP) as de facto protocol for most communication networks has established a need for developing IP capable data link layer protocol solutions for Machine to machine (M2M) and Internet of Things (IoT) networks. However, the wireless networks used for M2M and IoT applications usually lack the resources commonly associated with modern wireless communication networks. The existing IP capable data link layer solutions for wireless IoT networks provide the necessary overhead minimising and frame optimising features, but are often built to be compatible only with IPv6 and specific radio platforms. The objective of this thesis is to design IPv4 compatible data link layer for Netcontrol Oy's narrow band half-duplex packet data radio system. Based on extensive literature research, system modelling and solution concept testing, this thesis proposes the usage of tunslip protocol as the basis for the system data link layer protocol development. In addition to the functionality of tunslip, this thesis discusses the additional network, routing, compression, security and collision avoidance changes required to be made to the radio platform in order for it to be IP compatible while still being able to maintain the point-to-multipoint and multi-hop network characteristics. The data link layer design consists of the radio application, dynamic Maximum Transmission Unit (MTU) optimisation daemon and the tunslip interface. The proposed design uses tunslip for creating an IP capable data link protocol interface. The radio application receives data from tunslip and compresses the packets and uses the IP addressing information for radio network addressing and routing before forwarding the message to radio network. The dynamic MTU size optimisation daemon controls the tunslip interface maximum MTU size according to the link quality assessment calculated from the radio network diagnostic data received from the radio application. For determining the usability of tunslip as the basis for data link layer protocol, testing of the tunslip interface is conducted with both IEEE 802.15.4 radios and packet data radios. The test cases measure the radio network usability for User Datagram Protocol (UDP) based applications without applying any header or content compression. The test results for the packet data radios reveal that the typical success rate for packet reception through a single-hop link is above 99% with a round-trip-delay of 0.315s for 63B packets.

Monitoring pollutants in occupied spaces.

There is increasing evidence of a causal link between airborne particles and ill health and this study monitored the exposure to both airborne particles and the gas phase contaminants of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) in a nightclub. The present study followed a number of pilot studies in which the human exposure to airborne particles in a nightclub was assessed and the spatio-temporal distribution of gas phase pollutants was evaluated in restaurants and pubs. The work reported here re-examined the nightclub environment and utilized concurrent and continuous monitoring using optical scattering samplers to measure particulates (PM10) together with multi-gas analysers. The analysis illustrated the highly episodic nature of both gaseous and particulate concentrations in both the dance floor and in the bar area but levels were well below the maximum recommended exposure levels. Short-term exposure to high concentrations may however be relevant when considering the possible toxic effects on biological systems. The results give an indication of the problems associated with achieving acceptable indoor air quality (IAQ) in a complex space and identified some of the problems inherent in the design and operation of ventilation systems for such spaces.

Human exposure to particulate and gaseous pollutants in a bar.

There is increasing evidence of a causal link between airborne particles and ill health and this study examined the exposure to both airborne particles and the gas phase contaminants of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) in a bar. The work reported here utilized concurrent and continuous monitoring using real-time optical scattering personal samplers to record particulate (PM10) concentrations at two internal locations. Very high episodes were observed in seating areas compared with the bar area. A photo-acoustic multi-gas analyser was used to record the gas phases (CO and CO2) at eight different locations throughout the bar and showed little spatial variation. This gave a clear indication of the problems associated with achieving acceptable Indoor Air Quality in a public space and identified a fundamental problem with the simplistic design approach taken to ventilate the space. Both gaseous and particulate concentrations within the bar were below maximum recommended levels although the time-series analysis illustrated the highly episodic nature of this exposure.

ESSAYS ON THE WTO ACCESSION, HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

In the course of integrating into the global market, especially since China’s WTO accession, China has achieved remarkable GDP growth and has become the second largest economy in the world. These economic achievements have substantially increased Chinese incomes and have generated more government revenue for social progress. However, China’s economic progress, in itself, is neither sufficient for achieving desirable development outcomes nor a guarantee for expanding peoples’ capabilities. In fact, a narrow emphasis on GDP growth proves to be unsustainable, and may eventually harm the life quality of Chinese citizens. Without the right set of policies, a deepening trade-openness policy in China may enlarge social disparities and some people may further be deprived of basic public services and opportunities. To address these concerns, this dissertation, a set of three essays in Chapters 2-4, examines the impact of China's WTO accession on income distribution, compares China’s income and multidimensional poverty reduction and investigates the factors, including the WTO accession, that predict multidimensional poverty. By exploiting the exogenous variation in exposure to tariff changes across provinces and over time, Chapter 2 (Essay 1) estimates the causal effects of trade shocks and finds that China’s WTO accession has led to an increase in average household income, but its impacts are not evenly distributed. Households in urban areas have benefited more significantly than those in rural areas. Households with members working in the private sector have benefited more significantly than those in the public sector. However, the WTO accession has contributed to reducing income inequality between higher and lower income groups. Chapter 3 (Essay 2) explains and applies the Alkire and Foster Method (AF Method), examines multidimensional poverty in China and compares it with income poverty. It finds that China’s multidimensional poverty has declined dramatically during the period from 1989-2011. Reduction rates and patterns, however, vary by dimensions: multidimensional poverty reduction exhibits unbalanced regional progress as well as varies by province and between rural and urban areas. In comparison with income poverty, multidimensional poverty reduction does not always coincide with economic growth. Moreover, if one applies a single measure ─ either that of income or multidimensional poverty ─ a certain proportion of those who are poor remain unrecognized. By applying a logistic regression model, Chapter 4 (Essay 3) examines factors that predict multidimensional poverty and finds that the major factors predicting multidimensional poverty in China include household size, education level of the household head, health insurance coverage, geographic location, and the openness of the local economy. In order to alleviate multidimensional poverty, efforts should be targeted to (i) expand education opportunities for the household heads with low levels of education, (ii) develop appropriate geographic policies to narrow regional gaps and (iii) make macroeconomic policies work for the poor.

Are we all castrati? Venanzio Rauzzini: ‘The father of a new style in English singing’

Though the castrato has been absent from the operatic stage since the nineteenth century, this voice is often described as the mysterious link in understanding the vocal techniques attributed to bel canto. The mystery lies in the fact that the voice of the operatic castrato cannot be heard by modern ears; and yet its legacy can be seen in the vocal tuition of several successful opera singers at the turn of the nineteenth century. What is unusual about this period is that some of the most successful singers of the day, including Nancy Storace, John Braham and Elizabeth Billington were British and shared the same vocal teacher. The castrato Venanzio Rauzzini (1746-1810) began his career as a primo uomo on the continent and while he established himself in various areas of musical activity, his main contribution and legacy was as a vocal teacher. During his residency in Britain from 1774 until his death, he trained several leading British professional singers who were the stars of opera in London and on the continent. They each demonstrated a use of techniques associated with the castrato vocal aesthetic and popularised a new vocal style, which can be traced to Rauzzini. Through this thesis, I will draw attention to the importance of Rauzzini’s impact on vocal teaching practice in Britain and his wider influence on the development of vocal style. I will demonstrate that Rauzzini should be considered part of the vocal teaching canon to which Pier Francesco Tosi (c.1653-1732), Nicola Porpora (1686-1768) and Manual García II (1805-1906), three other foreign vocal teachers, who were resident in Britain, already belong. By examining exactly what the expected vocal aesthetics were for all singers, castrato, non-castrated male and female during the period in which Rauzzini was active, I will demystify the castrato technique and provide a more tangible understanding of what this encompassed, demonstrating that many of these techniques were learned, performed and popularised by other voice types such as the female soprano and the male tenor.

The development of the accounting professional in a postcolonial context: evidence from Sierra Leone

Despite increasing interest in the development of the accountancy profession and constitutive professional bodies in ex-colonies, little is known about the development of professional accountants as individuals. Similarly, although the continuing influence of the legacies of colonialism and imperialism on the accounting professionalisation trajectory in ex-colonies has been recognised, little attempt has been made to theorise such continuing colonial intervention as a postcolonial condition of accommodation and resistance, with implications for the development of professional accountants. This thesis fills this vacuum by employing four aspects of the critical lens of postcolonial theory – local-global nexus, psycho-existential complex, postcolonial hybridity and diaspora - to gain an insight into the development of accounting professionals in ex-colonies with specific reference to Sierra Leone. Specifically, it examines the current model of accounting professionalisation adopted in Sierra Leone and implications for the development of professional accountants in the country; investigates the historical and ideological legacies of colonialism that shaped and continue to influence the professionalisation trajectory in Sierra Leone; explores the perceptions of Sierra Leonean chartered and aspiring accountants of their professional identity in terms of their professional development within Sierra Leone; and explores the lived experiences of Sierra Leonean chartered and aspiring accountants in the diaspora and the diaspora effect on accountancy in Sierra Leone. The empirical evidence presented here emanated from two sources: a web-based survey and semi-structured interviews with Sierra Leonean chartered and aspiring accountants both within and outside the country at the time of the study. The model for developing professional accountants in Sierra Leone comprises a partnership between the local professional body, ICASL, and the British-based global body, the ACCA. A postcolonial analysis of the empirical evidence reveals that an unintended consequence of this model is that the local is co-opted within the global while the global becomes increasingly localised. The analysis also shows that the presence of a perceived global body ‘inferiorises’ the local body to the point of undesirability among local chartered and aspiring accountants. Thus the partnership has to date done little by way of developing ICASL’s capacity to ensure the development of a localised profession and professionals. Instead, it produces, within the Sierra Leone accountancy space, professional hybrids that at once pose as global as well as local accountants. This has significant implications for the local profession because many of the hybrid professional accountants who could potentially drive the local profession forward end up in the diaspora, which leaves the local profession in a weaker state. Also, given the established link between a robust accountancy profession and sustainable economic development, such professional diasporisation could negatively impact on the country’s economic development. In sum, Sierra Leone has failed to establish an accounting professionalisation model that develops professional accountants (through contextualised professional education and training) that meets the specific accounting needs of its growing economy.

Safety and complexity: the inter-departmental threats to patient safety in the operating department

Purpose: Current thinking about ‘patient safety’ emphasises the causal relationship between the work environment and the delivery of clinical care. This research draws on the theory of Normal Accidents to extend this analysis and better understand the ‘organisational factors’ that threaten safety. Methods: Ethnographic research methods were used, with observations of the operating department setting for 18 month and interviews with 80 members of hospital staff. The setting for the study was the Operating Department of a large teaching hospital in the North-West of England. Results: The work of the operating department is determined by inter-dependant, ‘tightly coupled’ organisational relationships between hospital departments based upon the timely exchange of information, services and resources required for the delivery of care. Failures within these processes, manifest as ‘breakdowns’ within inter-departmental relationships lead to situations of constraint, rapid change and uncertainty in the work of the operating department that require staff to break with established routines and work with increased time and emotional pressures. This means that staff focus on working quickly, as opposed to working safely. Conclusion: Analysis of safety needs to move beyond a focus on the immediate work environment and individual practice, to consider the more complex and deeply structured organisational systems of hospital activity. For departmental managers the scope for service planning to control for safety may be limited as the structured ‘real world’ situation of service delivery is shaped by inter-department and organisational factors that are perhaps beyond the scope of departmental management.

Solidarity, the network and the history of workers' self-management from the Gdańsk Agreement to shock therapy

This PhD thesis is an empirical research project in the field of modern Polish history. The thesis focuses on Solidarity, the Network and the idea of workers’ self-management. In addition, the thesis is based on an in-depth analysis of Solidarity archival material. The Solidarity trade union was born in August 1980 after talks between the communist government and strike leaders at the Gdansk Lenin Shipyards. In 1981 a group called the Network rose up, due to cooperation between Poland’s great industrial factory plants. The Network grew out of Solidarity; it was made up of Solidarity activists, and the group acted as an economic partner to the union. The Network was the base of a grass-roots, nationwide workers’ self-management movement. Solidarity and the self-management movement were crushed by the imposition of Martial Law in December 1981. Solidarity revived itself immediately, and the union created an underground society. The Network also revived in the underground, and it continued to promote self-management activity where this was possible. When Solidarity regained its legal status in April 1989, workers’ self-management no longer had the same importance in the union. Solidarity’s new politico-economic strategy focused on free markets, foreign investment and privatization. This research project ends in July 1990, when the new Solidarity-backed government enacted a privatization law. The government decided to transform the property ownership structure through a centralized privatization process, which was a blow for supporters of workers’ self-management. This PhD thesis provides new insight into the evolution of the Solidarity union from 1980-1990 by analyzing the fate of workers’ self-management. This project also examines the role of the Network throughout the 1980s. There is analysis of the important link between workers’ self-management and the core ideas of Solidarity. In addition, the link between political and economic reform is an important theme in this research project. The Network was aware that authentic workers’ self-management required reforms to the authoritarian political system. Workers’ self-management competed against other politico-economic ideas during the 1980s in Poland. The outcome of this competition between different reform concepts has shaped modern-day Polish politics, economics and society.

A study on the effect of functional distribution of income on aggregate demand

In this thesis, we study the causal relationship between functional distribution of income and economic growth. In particular, we focus on some of the aspects that might alter the effect of the profit share on growth. After a brief introduction and literature review, the empirical contributions will be presented in Chapters 3,4 and 5. Chapter 3 analyses the effect of a contemporaneous decrease in the wage share among countries that are major trade partners. Falling wage share and wage moderation are a global phenomenon which are hardly opposed by governments. This is because lower wages are associated with lower export prices and, therefore, have a positive effect on net-exports. There is, however, a fallacy of composition problem: not all countries can improve their balance of payments contemporaneously. Studying the country members of the North America Free Trade Agreement, we find that the effect on export of a contemporaneous decrease in the wage share in Mexico, Canada and the United States, is negative in all countries. In other words, the competitive advantage that each country gains because of a reduction in its wage share (to which is associated a decrease in export prices), is offset by a contemporaneous increase in competitiveness in the other two countries. Moreover, we find that NAFTA is overall wage-led: the profit share has a negative effect on aggregate demand. Chapter 4 tests whether it is possible that the effect of the profit share on growth is different in the long run and in the short run. Following Blecker (2014) our hypothesis is that in the short run the growth regime is less wage-led than it is in the long run. The results of our empirical investigation support this hypothesis, at least for the United States over the period 1950-2014. The effect of wages on consumption increases more than proportionally compared to the effect of profits on consumption from the short to the long run. Moreover, consumer debt seem to have only a short-run effect on consumption indicating that in the long run, when debt has to be repaid, consumption depends more on the level of income and on how it is distributed. Regarding investment, the effect of capacity utilization is always larger than the effect of the profit share and that the difference between the two effects is higher in the long run than in the short run. This confirms the hypothesis that in the long run, unless there is an increase in demand, it is likely that firms are not going to increase investments even in the presence of high profits. In addition, the rentier share of profits – that comprises dividends and interest payments – has a long-run negative effect on investment. In the long run rentiers divert firms’ profits from investment and, therefore, it weakens the effect of profits on investment. Finally, Chapter 5 studies the possibility of structural breaks in the relationship between functional distribution of income and growth. We argue that, from the 1980s, financialization and the European exchange rate agreements weakened the positive effect of the profit share on growth in Italy. The growth regime is therefore becoming less profit-led and more wage-led. Our results confirm this hypothesis and also shed light on the concept of cooperative and conflictual regimes as defined by Bhaduri and Marglin (1990).

Programa Mais Médicos : uma avaliação dos resultados iniciais referentes ao eixo do provimento emergencial a partir da teoria da avaliação de programas

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Centro de Estudos Avançados Multidisciplinares, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Sociedade e Cooperação Internacional, 2016.