Volatility spillovers for spot, futures, and ETF prices in energy and agriculture

The agricultural and energy industries are closely related, both biologically and financially. The paper discusses the relationship and the interactions on price and volatility, with special focus on the covolatility spillover effects for these two industries. The interaction and covolatility spillovers or the delayed effect of a returns shock in one asset on the subsequent volatility or covolatility in another asset, between the energy and agricultural industries is the primary emphasis of the paper. Although there has already been significant research on biofuel and biofuel-related crops, much of the previous research has sought to find a relationship among commodity prices. Only a few published papers have been concerned with volatility spillovers. However, it must be emphasized that there have been numerous technical errors in the theoretical and empirical research, which needs to be corrected. The paper not only considers futures prices as a widely-used hedging instrument, but also takes an interesting new hedging instrument, ETF, into account. ETF is regarded as index futures when investors manage their portfolios, so it is possible to calculate an optimal dynamic hedging ratio. This is a very useful and interesting application for the estimation and testing of volatility spillovers. In the empirical analysis, multivariate conditional volatility diagonal BEKK models are estimated for comparing patterns of covolatility spillovers. The paper provides a new way of analyzing and describing the patterns of covolatility spillovers, which should be useful for the future empirical analysis of estimating and testing covolatility spillover effects.

An econometric analysis of ETF and ETF futures in financial and energy markets using generated regressors

It is well known that that there is an intrinsic link between the financial and energy sectors, which can be analyzed through their spillover effects, which are measures of how the shocks to returns in different assets affect each other’s subsequent volatility in both spot and futures markets. Financial derivatives, which are not only highly representative of the underlying indices but can also be traded on both the spot and futures markets, include Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), which is a tradable spot index whose aim is to replicate the return of an underlying benchmark index. When ETF futures are not available to examine spillover effects, “generated regressors” may be used to construct both Financial ETF futures and Energy ETF futures. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the covolatility spillovers within and across the US energy and financial sectors in both spot and futures markets, by using “generated regressors” and a multivariate conditional volatility model, namely Diagonal BEKK. The daily data used are from 1998/12/23 to 2016/4/22. The data set is analyzed in its entirety, and also subdivided into three subset time periods. The empirical results show there is a significant relationship between the Financial ETF and Energy ETF in the spot and futures markets. Therefore, financial and energy ETFs are suitable for constructing a financial portfolio from an optimal risk management perspective, and also for dynamic hedging purposes.

Otimização não linear aplicada à operação de sistemas com múltiplos reservatórios para abastecimento de água.

O presente estudo considera a aplicação do modelo SISAGUA de simulação matemática e de otimização para a operação de sistemas de reservatórios integrados em sistemas complexos para o abastecimento de água. O SISAGUA utiliza a programação não linear inteira mista (PNLIM) com os objetivos de evitar ou minimizar racionamentos, equilibrar a distribuição dos armazenamentos em sistemas com múltiplos reservatórios e minimizar os custos de operação. A metodologia de otimização foi aplicada para o sistema produtor de água da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP), que enfrenta a crise hídrica diante de um cenário de estiagem em 2013-2015, o pior na série histórica dos últimos 85 anos. Trata-se de uma região com 20,4 milhões de habitantes. O sistema é formado por oito sistemas produtores parcialmente integrados e operados pela Sabesp (Companhia de Saneamento do Estado de São Paulo). A RMSP é uma região com alta densidade demográfica, localizada na Bacia Hidrográfica do Alto Tietê e caracterizada pela baixa disponibilidade hídrica per capita. Foi abordada a possibilidade de considerar a evaporação durante as simulações, e a aplicação de uma regra de racionamento contínua nos reservatórios, que transforma a formulação do problema em programação não linear (PNL). A evaporação se mostrou pouco representativa em relação a vazão de atendimento à demanda, com cerca de 1% da vazão. Se por um lado uma vazão desta magnitude pode contribuir em um cenário crítico, por outro essa ordem de grandeza pode ser comparada às incertezas de medições ou previsões de afluências. O teste de sensibilidade das diferentes taxas de racionamento em função do volume armazenado permite analisar o tempo de resposta de cada sistema. A variação do tempo de recuperação, porém, não se mostrou muito significativo.

Integração espacial e eficiência do hedge no mercado sul-americano de soja: comparações entre Brasil e Argentina

Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar o potencial de desenvolvimento do contrato futuro de soja no Brasil, por meio da atração de hedgers brasileiros e argentinos. Para tanto, faz-se necessário conhecer os padrões das conexões dos preços entre as regiões analisadas. Nesse sentido, o Capítulo 2 investigou a integração espacial do mercado físico de soja no Brasil (região de Sorriso, no Mato Grosso) e na Argentina (região de Rosário, na província de Santa Fé) e comparou ao grau de integração com os Estados Unidos. Foram empregados modelos autorregressivos com threshold (TAR e M-TAR) e modelos vetoriais de correção de erros, lineares e com threshold (VECM e TVECM), visando captar os efeitos dos custos de transação sobre a integração espacial entre essas regiões. Os resultados apontaram que o mercado de soja brasileiro, argentino e norte-americano são integrados, mesmo considerando-se os efeitos dos custos de transação sobre as decisões de arbitragem espacial. Consequentemente, os preços da soja no mercado internacional tendem a refletir o comportamento dos principais países produtores. Apesar disso, o tempo de transmissão de choques de preços mostrou-se, em geral, menor entre Brasil e Argentina, refletindo a proximidade geográfica. Apontou-se também o comportamento assimétrico da transmissão desses choques, uma vez que choques positivos sobre a relação de longo prazo tendem a ser mais persistentes que os negativos. Se o contrato futuro reflete o comportamento de preços de um único mercado físico integrado, deve-se então esperar que o risco de base seja menor para este mercado e, portanto, que a eficiência do hedge seja maior. No Capítulo 3, o objetivo se constituiu em verificar se há maior eficiência no hedge realizado com os contratos com vencimento em março na CME em relação à BM&FBOVESPA, considerando-se as relações de longo prazo entre os preços à vista e futuros, bem como a dinâmica na estrutura de covariâncias condicionais, por meio de modelos de correção de erros (VECM) e modelos de heterocedasticidade condicional generalizados com correlação condicional dinâmica (DCC-GARCH). Os resultados mostraram que, em geral, a introdução da dinâmica nos segundos momentos das distribuições dos erros tende a aumentar a eficiência da estratégia de hedge. Além disso, foi observado que os produtores de Sorriso tendem a obter melhores condições de hedge na CME, embora haja redução da variância ao se operar na BM&FBOVESPA. Por outro lado, a eficiência do hedge para os produtores de Rosário foi significativamente maior na BM&FBOVESPA do que na CME, o que indica o mercado potencial de hedgers argentinos para negociar o contrato futuro de soja local no Brasil.

Sleep-wake disorders persist 18 months after traumatic brain injury but remain underrecognized

OBJECTIVE This study is a prospective, controlled clinical and electrophysiologic trial examining the chronic course of posttraumatic sleep-wake disturbances (SWD). METHODS We screened 140 patients with acute, first-ever traumatic brain injury of any severity and included 60 patients for prospective follow-up examinations. Patients with prior brain trauma, other neurologic or systemic disease, drug abuse, or psychiatric comorbidities were excluded. Eighteen months after trauma, we performed detailed sleep assessment in 31 participants. As a control group, we enrolled healthy individuals without prior brain trauma matched for age, sex, and sleep satiation. RESULTS In the chronic state after traumatic brain injury, sleep need per 24 hours was persistently increased in trauma patients (8.1 ± 0.5 hours) as compared to healthy controls (7.1 ± 0.7 hours). The prevalence of chronic objective excessive daytime sleepiness was 67% in patients with brain trauma compared to 19% in controls. Patients significantly underestimated excessive daytime sleepiness and sleep need, emphasizing the unreliability of self-assessments on SWD in trauma patients. CONCLUSIONS This study provides prospective, controlled, and objective evidence for chronic persistence of posttraumatic SWD, which remain underestimated by patients. These results have clinical and medicolegal implications given that SWD can exacerbate other outcomes of traumatic brain injury, impair quality of life, and are associated with public safety hazards.

Unterhaltungen am hau slichen Herd.

Editor 1852- : Karl Gutzkow.

Napoleon : a history of the art of war, from the beginning of the peninsular war to the end of the Russian campaign, with a detailed account of the Napoleonic Wars /

Mode of access: Internet.

Alt-Spanien,

On cover: "Architektur und kunstgewerbe in Alt-Spanien."

Archiv für experimentelle Pathologie und Pharmakologie

Mode of access: Internet.

Essays on International Asset Allocation and Pricing

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Management motivation for using financial derivatives in Australia

This study takes a direct approach to determine management motivation for the use of financial derivatives. We survey a sample of Australian firms on attitudes to derivative use and financial risk management. Management views are sought on the importance of a series of theoretical reasons for using derivatives. Generally, we find that managers are focused on the broad reduction of risk and volatility of cash flows and earnings in using derivatives. Specific issues such as reducing bankruptcy costs, debt levels and taxation are not considered as important. A further interesting result from this research is that even though firms may use derivatives they may not necessarily hedge all of their annual exposures across different financial risks. This helps explain the inconsistency of results in many empirical studies on the determinants of derivative use.

Two conceptions of reason

Two conceptions of reason are considered - the planning conception, embodied, for example, in rational choice theory and other familiar paradigms, and the improvisational conception, emerging from work on artificial intelligence and organization theory. Two illustrations are given of the problematic nature of the planning conception: ( 1) the inevitability of incompleteness in contracting and ( 2) the burdens of reason identified by John Rawls. Two diagnoses are provided for these infirmities: ( 1) the inexhaustibility of description and ( 2) the constructed nature of preferences and values. An alternative improvisational model is sketched and risk-spreading and bet-hedging are identified as two of its key technologies.

The exchange rate exposure of UK non-financial companies

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the exchange rate exposure of UK nonfinancial companies from January 1981 to December 2001. Design/methodology/approach – The study employs different exchange rate measures and adopts an equally weighted exchange rate. The analyses are conducted at the firm level. All analyses are conducted by regressing the firm’s exchange rate exposure coefficients on its size, foreign activity variables and financial hedging proxies over the whole sample period. Findings – The findings show that a higher percentage of UK non-financial companies are exposed to exchange rate changes than those reported in previous studies. Generally, the results provide a stronger support for the suggested equally weighted rate as an economic variable, which affects firms’ stock returns. The results also show a high proportion of positive exposure coefficients among firms with significant exchange rate exposure, indicating a higher proportion of firms benefiting from an appreciation of the pound. Finally, the results also indicate evidence that firms’ foreign operations and hedging variables affect their sensitivity to exchange rate exposure. Practical implications – This study provides important implications for public policymakers who wish to understand links between policies that affect exchange rates and relative wealth effects. Originality/value – The empirical results of this study should help investors to examine how common stock returns react to exchange rate fluctuations when making financial decisions, and prove useful for financial managers when measuring exposure to foreign exchange rate changes.

The sensitivity of US banks' stock returns to interest and exchange rate changes

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign exchange and interest rate changes on US banks’ stock returns. Design/methodology/approach – The approach employs an EGARCH model to account for the ARCH effects in daily returns. Most prior studies have used standard OLS estimation methods with the result that the presence of ARCH effects would have affected estimation efficiency. For comparative purposes, the standard OLS estimation method is also used to measure sensitivity. Findings – The findings are as follows: under the conditional t-distributional assumption, the EGARCH model generated a much better fit to the data although the goodness-of-fit of the model is not entirely satisfactory; the market index return accounts for most of the variation in stock returns at both the individual bank and portfolio levels; and the degree of sensitivity of the stock returns to interest rate and FX rate changes is not very pronounced despite the use of high frequency data. Earlier results had indicated that daily data provided greater evidence of exposure sensitivity. Practical implications – Assuming that banks do not hedge perfectly, these findings have important financial implications as they suggest that the hedging policies of the banks are not reflected in their stock prices. Alternatively, it is possible that different GARCH-type models might be more appropriate when modelling high frequency returns. Originality/value – The paper contributes to existing knowledge in the area by showing that ARCH effects do impact on measures of sensitivity.

Schematic structure and the modulation of propositions in economics forecasting text

Working within the framework of the branch of Linguistics known as discourse analysis, and more specifically within the current approach of genre analysis, this thesis presents an analysis of the English of economic forecasting. The language of economic forecasting is highly specialised and follows certain conventions of structure and style. This research project identifies these characteristics and explains them in terms of their communicative function. The work is based on a corpus of texts published in economic reports and surveys by major corporate bodies. These documents are targeted at an international expert readership familiar with this genre. The data is analysed at two broad levels: firstly, the macro-level of text structure which is described in terms of schema-theory, a currently influential model of analysis, and, secondly, the micro-level of authors' strategies for modulating the predictions which form the key move in the forecasting schema. The thesis aims to contribute to the newly developing field of genre analysis in a number of ways: firstly, by a coverage of a hitherto neglected but intrinsically interesting and important genre (Economic Forecasting); secondly, by testing the applicability of existing models of analysis at the level of schematic structure and proposing a genre-specific model; thirdly by offering insights into the nature of modulation of propositions which is often broadly classified as `hedging' or `modality', and which has been recently described as lq`an area for prolonged fieldwork'. This phenomenon is shown to be a key feature of this particular genre. It is suggested that this thesis, in addition to its contribution to the theory of genre analysis, provides a useful basis for work by teachers of English for Economics, an important area of English for Specific Purposes.