Cyprus ... A Test Case for Future European Banking Policy. CEPS Commentary, 21 March 2013

In this CEPS Commentary, the former Irish Prime Minister calls the precedents being set in the Cypriot banking case “troubling” and reflective of a lack of clarity and consistency of thought by both the eurozone Finance Ministers and the European Commission. He welcomes the rejection of the deal by the Cypriot Parliament as it now gives eurozone policy-makers a chance to think again about the underlying philosophy of their approach to the financial crisis.

Portugal. In economics, we call it conflict of interest! CEPS Commentary, 12 April 2013

Faced with limited options for coming up with the funds needed to pay off the next instalment on its bailout loan, Portugal is advised in this Commentary by economist Leonor Coutinho to trim the number of public sector employees, in combination with an increase in public sector working hours, among the lowest in Europe. In her view, these measures will have the best long-term implications both in terms of fiscal sustainability and of labour productivity, and may finally allow the country to resume the catching-up process that has been stalled since the start of EMU.

The meaning of Cyprus; moving toward banking union. CEPS Commentary, 8 April 2013

While acknowledging that Cyprus is too small to matter for global financial markets, this Commentary finds that its case could turn out to become a very important precedent for the way European policy-makers deal with future banking problems and the plans for a ‘banking union’.

The new bail-in doctrine: A recipe for banking crises and depression in the eurozone. CEPS Commentary

This Commentary argues that the failure to recognise shared responsibility for the banking crisis in Cyprus has led to the imposition of a bail-in template that increases the risk of banking crises and economic depression in the eurozone.

Communication as a policy tool: Important lessons from Cyprus. CEPS Commentary, 28 March 2013

After a week in which Cypriot politicians reassured people that their deposits were safe, followed by the announcement of a bank levy on savings, then a rush to withdraw cash amid general confusion and anxiety, Cypriot Senior Researcher Leonor Coutinho argues that in the case of a banking crisis it is vital for policy-makers to treat communication as an important component of the policy toolkit.

Enlargement Agenda - Special focus on Macedonia, Serbia and Kosovo. CEPS Commentary, 27 March 2013

This CEPS Commentary notes that this is a critical time for the EU’s enlargement agenda with competing interests at play – between those who suggest that further enlargement is a heavy burden that the EU can ill afford in the current economic climate, and others who continue to believe that extending the frontiers of peace and security to include the Balkan countries will make the EU a safer place. To counter the naysayers, Erwan Fouéré underlines the importance for the EU to show that its current strategy continues to deliver dividends, as it certainly does in the case of Kosovo and Serbia. He further advises the EU to be ready to adapt its strategy where necessary, as in the case of Macedonia, by using whatever leverage it has in a more direct and consistent way and ensuring that its policy objectives and strategy in this area are based on the progress assessment narrative and not the other way around. In his view, opening accession negotiations with Macedonia will be the only way to prevent the country from sinking into further political instability.

Implementing the AIFMD: Success or failure? ECMI Commentary No. 34, 28 March 2013

This commentary considers the implementation of the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (AIFMD) by the European Commission. The AIFMD creates an internal market for asset management and as an endeavour to develop market-based finance is an important piece of legislation for the European economy. The author, Mirzha de Manuel Aramendía, considers the implementation of some of the provisions that raised concern among industry participants. He finds that, on balance, a practical and flexible approach to implementation has been followed that should help secure the success of the framework, which at present is still uncertain. The commentary also considers the remuneration guidelines adopted recently by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA). It encourages EU and national authorities to commit to the success of the AIFMD framework, as part of a broader effort to develop capital markets and reduce the historical reliance of the European economy on bank finance.

Facilitated dialogue in the Balkans vindicates the EEAS. CEPS Commentary, 29 April 2013

As a result of EEAS-led facilitated dialogue, on April 19th the prime ministers of Serbia and Kosovo reached their first agreement on the principles governing the normalisation of relations. The agreement handed Catherine Ashton a diplomatic victory she badly needed and offered proof of the added value of the European External Action Service (EEAS) as a new EU foreign policy actor.

The EU should tax in harmony. CEPS Commentary, 3 May 2012

Rather than expending unnecessary negative energy on the blunt and indiscriminate financial transaction tax (FTT), this commentary argues that the EU should give priority to its tax base harmonisation project. Progress on this front would advance several objectives at once: it would make an important step towards more economic union, it would promote the EU as a business location and it would succeed in appropriating tax income to the location where corporate activities are effectively exercised.

The Boston Marathon and the Visa Negotiations between the EU and Russia: Time to get real and positive. CEPS Commentary, 8 May 2013

Against the background of the Boston Marathon bombing as a violent reminder of the lawlessness throughout much of the Northern Caucasus, Michael Emerson calls in this commentary for a fresh direction in the EU’s negotiations with Russia over visa-free travel. While finding that a ‘visa liberalisation’ regime has a very slim prospect of materialising any time soon, on the other hand, he sees realistic possibilities for fast delivery of a ‘virtual visa free regime’ of the multi-year, multi-entry visa, which would be a real and important achievement for EU-Russian relations.

The austerity debate is beside the point for Europe. CEPS Commentary, 8 May 2013

In surveying the heated debate in the eurozone about austerity and the cost of high public debt, this CEPS Commentary suggests that the influential paper by Carmen Reinhard and Kenneth Rogoff misses the key point that public debt owed to foreigners is different from debt owed to residents.

Time to move north? CEPS Commentary, 27 May 2013

A staggering one out of every four young people is presently unemployed in Spain. And comparable numbers in Greece, Portugal and Italy are hardly more encouraging. Germany, on the other hand, enjoys a historically low youth unemployment rate of 8% and is experiencing skill shortages in some occupations. Against this background, this Commentary calls upon the European Commission to use its considerable strength and know-how in bringing partners and stakeholders together in order to facilitate the necessary infrastructure to allow better matching across borders of workers and employers. The authors point to the June European Council meeting as offering a good occasion to launch initiatives to this effect.

Thessaloniki ten years on: Injecting momentum into the enlargement process for the Western Balkans. CEPS Commentary, 16 May 2013.

Ten years have passed since the EU-Western Balkans summit was held in Thessaloniki in June 2003. In this new CEPS Commentary, CEPS Associate Senior Fellow Erwan Fouéré exhorts the EU to mark the occasion by reaffirming with greater determination the European perspective for the countries of the region in the hope of keeping the Balkan ghosts at bay.

Does the key to a WMD-free Middle East lie in a nuclear Iran? CEPS Commentary, 10 June 2013

After the presidential elections on June 14th, the Iranian regime will continue its catch-me-if-you-can game with the international community until it has reached the nuclear threshold. Paradoxically, the key to a solution on the nuclear issue might just lie in discussions on a WMD-free Middle East, but only after Iran has obtained nuclear military capability. At that point, and in the context of a new arms race, both regional and international players may be persuaded that the Middle East has more to gain from negotiations on non-proliferation than from prolonged isolation and the prospect of intractable war.

Capital Controls in Cyprus: Shooting at a moving target. CEPS Commentary, 15 June 2013

In her examination of the capital controls that have been in place in Cyprus since March 27th, Leonor Coutinho asks how soon can they be lifted and whether the recapitalisation plans will be sufficiently convincing to allow the Cypriot banking sector to regain the trust of the public.