941 resultados para profit forecasts


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The increasing emphasis on aid effectiveness, accountability and impact measurement in international development and humanitarian work has generated a requirement for high quality internal systems for the management of programmes. To help to address this requirement, Trócaire adopted Results Based Management in the 20 countries in which it works. This paper provides an overview of Trócaire’s RBM journey, including the process of embedding the new approach in the organisation, lessons learnt from this process, the subsequent benefits that are emerging at field programme level and the challenges going forward.

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IKK epsilon (IKKε) is induced by the activation of nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB). Whole-body IKKε knockout mice on a high-fat diet (HFD) were protected from insulin resistance and showed altered energy balance. We demonstrate that IKKε is expressed in neurons and is upregulated in the hypothalamus of obese mice, contributing to insulin and leptin resistance. Blocking IKKε in the hypothalamus of obese mice with CAYMAN10576 or small interfering RNA decreased NF-κB activation in this tissue, relieving the inflammatory environment. Inhibition of IKKε activity, but not TBK1, reduced IRS-1(Ser307) phosphorylation and insulin and leptin resistance by an improvement of the IR/IRS-1/Akt and JAK2/STAT3 pathways in the hypothalamus. These improvements were independent of body weight and food intake. Increased insulin and leptin action/signaling in the hypothalamus may contribute to a decrease in adiposity and hypophagia and an enhancement of energy expenditure accompanied by lower NPY and increased POMC mRNA levels. Improvement of hypothalamic insulin action decreases fasting glycemia, glycemia after pyruvate injection, and PEPCK protein expression in the liver of HFD-fed and db/db mice, suggesting a reduction in hepatic glucose production. We suggest that IKKε may be a key inflammatory mediator in the hypothalamus of obese mice, and its hypothalamic inhibition improves energy and glucose metabolism.

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Hypothalamic inflammation is a common feature of experimental obesity. Dietary fats are important triggers of this process, inducing the activation of toll-like receptor-4 (TLR4) signaling and endoplasmic reticulum stress. Microglia cells, which are the cellular components of the innate immune system in the brain, are expected to play a role in the early activation of diet-induced hypothalamic inflammation. Here, we use bone marrow transplants to generate mice chimeras that express a functional TLR4 in the entire body except in bone marrow-derived cells or only in bone marrow-derived cells. We show that a functional TLR4 in bone marrow-derived cells is required for the complete expression of the diet-induced obese phenotype and for the perpetuation of inflammation in the hypothalamus. In an obesity-prone mouse strain, the chemokine CX3CL1 (fractalkine) is rapidly induced in the neurons of the hypothalamus after the introduction of a high-fat diet. The inhibition of hypothalamic fractalkine reduces diet-induced hypothalamic inflammation and the recruitment of bone marrow-derived monocytic cells to the hypothalamus; in addition, this inhibition reduces obesity and protects against diet-induced glucose intolerance. Thus, fractalkine is an important player in the early induction of diet-induced hypothalamic inflammation, and its inhibition impairs the induction of the obese and glucose intolerance phenotypes.

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Abstract In this paper, we address the problem of picking a subset of bids in a general combinatorial auction so as to maximize the overall profit using the first-price model. This winner determination problem assumes that a single bidding round is held to determine both the winners and prices to be paid. We introduce six variants of biased random-key genetic algorithms for this problem. Three of them use a novel initialization technique that makes use of solutions of intermediate linear programming relaxations of an exact mixed integer-linear programming model as initial chromosomes of the population. An experimental evaluation compares the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms with the standard mixed linear integer programming formulation, a specialized exact algorithm, and the best-performing heuristics proposed for this problem. The proposed algorithms are competitive and offer strong results, mainly for large-scale auctions.

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The difficulty in adapting European dairy cows breeds in Brazil affect considerably the milk production sector. Brazilian climatic conditions are not totally favorable and the development of new tecnologies is needed for the animals express their genetic potential, as well as their best feed conversion. An economical analysis of the applied investment in the free-stall climatization equipment in dairy housing, for estimating studies related to profit, possibility of return investment as well as time for this return is necessary. The objective of this research was to evaluate the influence of climatization investment in the milk production process and analyze the economical aspect of this investment. There were used 470 high productive dairy cows with genetic and morphologic homogeneous characteristics, and analyzed in two similar periods. Investment calculations were done using Excell®. The results were satisfactory and the invested capital was proved to return to the producer in a short term, 57 days.

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

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Este trabalho avalia o desempenho de previsões sazonais do modelo climático regional RegCM3, aninhado ao modelo global CPTEC/COLA. As previsões com o RegCM3 utilizaram 60 km de resolução horizontal num domínio que inclui grande parte da América do Sul. As previsões do RegCM3 e CPTEC/COLA foram avaliadas utilizando as análises de chuva e temperatura do ar do Climate Prediction Center (CPC) e National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP), respectivamente. Entre maio de 2005 e julho de 2007, 27 previsões sazonais de chuva e temperatura do ar (exceto a temperatura do CPTEC/COLA, que possui 26 previsões) foram avaliadas em três regiões do Brasil: Nordeste (NDE), Sudeste (SDE) e Sul (SUL). As previsões do RegCM3 também foram comparadas com as climatologias das análises. De acordo com os índices estatísticos (bias, coeficiente de correlação, raiz quadrada do erro médio quadrático e coeficiente de eficiência), nas três regiões (NDE, SDE e SUL) a chuva sazonal prevista pelo RegCM3 é mais próxima da observada do que a prevista pelo CPTEC/COLA. Além disto, o RegCM3 também é melhor previsor da chuva sazonal do que da média das observações nas três regiões. Para temperatura, as previsões do RegCM3 são superiores às do CPTEC/COLA nas áreas NDE e SUL, enquanto o CPTEC/COLA é superior no SDE. Finalmente, as previsões de chuva e temperatura do RegCM3 são mais próximas das observações do que a climatologia observada. Estes resultados indicam o potencial de utilização do RegCM3 para previsão sazonal, que futuramente deverá ser explorado através de previsão por conjunto.

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Este artigo discute um modelo de previsão combinada para a realização de prognósticos climáticos na escala sazonal. Nele, previsões pontuais de modelos estocásticos são agregadas para obter as melhores projeções no tempo. Utilizam-se modelos estocásticos autoregressivos integrados a médias móveis, de suavização exponencial e previsões por análise de correlações canônicas. O controle de qualidade das previsões é feito através da análise dos resíduos e da avaliação do percentual de redução da variância não-explicada da modelagem combinada em relação às previsões dos modelos individuais. Exemplos da aplicação desses conceitos em modelos desenvolvidos no Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) mostram bons resultados e ilustram que as previsões do modelo combinado, superam na maior parte dos casos a de cada modelo componente, quando comparadas aos dados observados.

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Este artigo analisa, pela primeira vez na literatura, o impacto dos sindicatos de trabalhadores em vários indicadores de desempenho econômico de firmas industriais brasileiras. Realizou-se uma pesquisa retrospectiva sobre a densidade sindical de 1000 estabelecimentos industriais brasileiros e seus resultados foram combinados aos indicadores de desempenho econômico da Pesquisa Industrial Anual (PIA) de 1990 a 2000. Os resultados indicam que a relação entre a densidade sindical na firma e seus salários, emprego e produtividade, é não-linear, ou seja, um aumento no grau de sindicalização leva a um melhor desempenho, porém a taxas decrescentes. Observou-se, também, uma relação negativa entre sindicalização e rentabilidade. Finalmente, estabelecimentos que introduziram mecanismos de 'participação nos lucros' aumentaram sua produtividade e rentabilidade no período e pagaram maiores salários nas firmas onde o grau de sindicalização era maior.

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PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to analyze the incidence of pressure ulcers (PUs) in elderly people living in long-term care facilities (LTCFs). DESIGN: We completed a prospective, comparison cohort study. SUBJECTS AND SETTING: Ninety-four persons, 60 years or older, participated in the study. Participants resided in 4 not-for-profit LTCFs in 3 cities in the southern region of the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. METHODS: Participants underwent complete skin examination and Braden Scale rating every 2 days for 3 months. When a PU was detected, a careful examination was done to assess its stage, location, and size. From this moment on, the patient was included in the incidence rate and was excluded from the study. RESULTS: The incidence rate of PUs was 39.4%; 37 (77.1%) developed a single ulcer. The most common locations were the malleolus (27.1%) and the ischium (25.0%). Stage I PU were most frequent (66.7%). Females (62.8%) and whites (68.19%) prevailed, with an average age of 79.06 +/- 9.6 years. Body mass index was 20.93 +/- 4.9, with a predominance of urinary diseases (58.5%) and use of neuroleptics/psychotropics (52.1%); 28.7% had had a previous ulcer. Gender and the occurrence of a previous ulcer were found to predict the development of PU, based on logistic regression analysis (r(2) = 0.311). CONCLUSIONS: The overall incidence of PU was significant, but the incidence of stage II and higher PUs was less than 12% and no elders had stage III or IV ulcers. Factors associated with PU development include female gender, regular use of neuroleptic or psychotropic medications, and a history of pressure ulceration.

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In this paper, a comparative analysis of the long-term electric power forecasting methodologies used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electric market. The abovementioned power forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS (c) program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.

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This article analysed scenarios for Brazilian consumption of ethanol for the period 2006 to 2012. The results show that if the country`s GDP sustains a 4.6% a year growth, domestic consumption of fuel ethanol could increase to 25.16 billion liters in this period, which is a volume relatively close to the forecasted gasoline consumption of 31 billion liters. At a lower GDP growth of 1.22% a year, gasoline consumption would be reduced and domestic ethanol consumption in Brazil would be no higher than 18.32 billion liters. Contrary to the current situation, forecasts indicated that hydrated ethanol consumption could become much higher than anhydrous consumption in Brazil. The former is being consumed in cars moved exclusively by ethanol and flex-fuel cars, successfully introduced in the country at 2003. Flex cars allow Brazilian consumers to choose between gasoline and hydrated ethanol and immediately switch to whichever fuel presents the most favourable relative price.