Modelling large-scale CO2 leakages in the North Sea

A three dimensional hydrodynamic model with a coupled carbonate speciation sub-model is used to simulate large additions of CO2into the North Sea, representing leakages at potential carbon sequestration sites. A range of leakage scenarios are conducted at two distinct release sites, allowing an analysis of the seasonal, inter-annual and spatial variability of impacts to the marine ecosystem. Seasonally stratified regions are shown to be more vulnerable to CO2release during the summer as the added CO2remains trapped beneath the thermocline, preventing outgasing to the atmosphere. On average, CO2 injected into the northern North Sea is shown to reside within the water column twice as long as an equivalent addition in the southern North Sea before reaching the atmosphere. Short-term leakages of 5000 tonnes CO2over a single day result in substantial acidification at the release sites (up to -1.92 pH units), with significant perturbations (greater than 0.1 pH units) generally confined to a 10 km radius. Long-term CO2leakages sustained for a year may result in extensive plumes of acidified seawater, carried by major advective pathways. Whilst such scenarios could be harmful to marine biota over confined spatial scales, continued unmitigated CO2emissions from fossil fuels are predicted to result in greater and more long-lived perturbations to the carbonate system over the next few decades.

Large‐scale wind deployment, social acceptance

The public is typically in agreement with the renewable energy targets established in many national states and generally supports the idea of increased reliance on wind energy. Nevertheless, many specific wind power projects face significant local opposition. A key question for the wind energy sector is, therefore, how to better engage local people to foster support for specific projects. IEA Wind Task 28 on Social Acceptance of Wind Energy Projects aims to facilitate wind energy development by reviewing current practices, emerging ideas, and exchanging successful practices among the participating countries. It also aims to disseminate the insights of leading research to a nontechnical audience, including project developers, local planning officials, and the general public. The interdisciplinary approach adopted by Task 28 enables an in-depth understanding of the nature of opposition to wind projects and a critical assessment of emerging strategies for social acceptance. Task 28 has analyzed a range of key issues related to social acceptance of wind energy, including the impacts on landscapes and ecosystems, on standard of living and well-being, the implementation of energy policy and spatial planning, the distribution of costs and benefits, and procedural justice. It is clear that although wind energy has many benefits; however, specific projects do impact local communities. As such the concerns of the affected people have to be taken seriously. Moreover, as opposition is rarely without foundation, it is in the interests of developers and advocates to engage local people and to improve projects for the benefit of all.

The detection of atmospheric rivers in atmospheric reanalyses and their links to British winter floods and the large-scale climatic circulation

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs), narrow plumes of enhanced moisture transport in the lower troposphere, are a key synoptic feature behind winter flooding in midlatitude regions. This article develops an algorithm which uses the spatial and temporal extent of the vertically integrated horizontal water vapor transport for the detection of persistent ARs (lasting 18 h or longer) in five atmospheric reanalysis products. Applying the algorithm to the different reanalyses in the vicinity of Great Britain during the winter half-years of 1980–2010 (31 years) demonstrates generally good agreement of AR occurrence between the products. The relationship between persistent AR occurrences and winter floods is demonstrated using winter peaks-over-threshold (POT) floods (with on average one flood peak per winter). In the nine study basins, the number of winter POT-1 floods associated with persistent ARs ranged from approximately 40 to 80%. A Poisson regression model was used to describe the relationship between the number of ARs in the winter half-years and the large-scale climate variability. A significant negative dependence was found between AR totals and the Scandinavian Pattern (SCP), with a greater frequency of ARs associated with lower SCP values.

Cyclones causing wind storms in the Mediterranean: characteristics, trends and links to large-scale patterns

A climatology of cyclones with a focus on their relation to wind storm tracks in the Mediterranean region (MR) is presented. Trends in the frequency of cyclones and wind storms, as well as variations associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic/West Russian (EAWR) and the Scandinavian variability pattern (SCAND) are discussed. The study is based on the ERA40 reanalysis dataset. Wind storm tracks are identified by tracking clusters of adjacent grid boxes characterised by extremely high local wind speeds. The wind track is assigned to a cyclone track independently identified with an objective scheme. Areas with high wind activity – quantified by extreme wind tracks – are typically located south of the Golf of Genoa, south of Cyprus, southeast of Sicily and west of the Iberian Peninsula. About 69% of the wind storms are caused by cyclones located in the Mediterranean region, while the remaining 31% can be attributed to North Atlantic or Northern European cyclones. The North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern and the Scandinavian pattern all influence the amount and spatial distribution of wind inducing cyclones and wind events in the MR. The strongest signals exist for the NAO and the EAWR pattern, which are both associated with an increase in the number of organised strong wind events in the eastern MR during their positive phase. On the other hand, the storm numbers decrease over the western MR for the positive phase of the NAO and over the central MR during the positive phase of the EAWR pattern. The positive phase of the Scandinavian pattern is associated with a decrease in the number of winter wind storms over most of the MR. A third of the trends in the number of wind storms and wind producing cyclones during the winter season of the ERA40 period may be attributed to the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Rossby waves and two-dimensional turbulence in a large-scale zonal jet

The theory of homogeneous barotropic beta-plane turbulence is here extended to include effects arising from spatial inhomogeneity in the form of a zonal shear flow. Attention is restricted to the geophysically important case of zonal flows that are barotropically stable and are of larger scale than the resulting transient eddy field. Because of the presumed scale separation, the disturbance enstrophy is approximately conserved in a fully nonlinear sense, and the (nonlinear) wave-mean-flow interaction may be characterized as a shear-induced spectral transfer of disturbance enstrophy along lines of constant zonal wavenumber k. In this transfer the disturbance energy is generally not conserved. The nonlinear interactions between different disturbance components are turbulent for scales smaller than the inverse of Rhines's cascade-arrest scale κβ[identical with] (β0/2urms)½ and in this regime their leading-order effect may be characterized as a tendency to spread the enstrophy (and energy) along contours of constant total wavenumber κ [identical with] (k2 + l2)½. Insofar as this process of turbulent isotropization involves spectral transfer of disturbance enstrophy across lines of constant zonal wavenumber k, it can be readily distinguished from the shear-induced transfer which proceeds along them. However, an analysis in terms of total wavenumber K alone, which would be justified if the flow were homogeneous, would tend to mask the differences. The foregoing theoretical ideas are tested by performing direct numerical simulation experiments. It is found that the picture of classical beta-plane turbulence is altered, through the effect of the large-scale zonal flow, in the following ways: (i) while the turbulence is still confined to K Kβ, the disturbance field penetrates to the largest scales of motion; (ii) the larger disturbance scales K < Kβ exhibit a tendency to meridional rather than zonal anisotropy, namely towards v2 > u2 rather than vice versa; (iii) the initial spectral transfer rate away from an isotropic intermediate-scale source is significantly enhanced by the shear-induced transfer associated with straining by the zonal flow. This last effect occurs even when the large-scale shear appears weak to the energy-containing eddies, in the sense that dU/dy [double less-than sign] κ for typical eddy length and velocity scales.

Multi-scale sensible heat fluxes in the urban environment from large aperture scintillometry and eddy covariance

Sensible heat fluxes (QH) are determined using scintillometry and eddy covariance over a suburban area. Two large aperture scintillometers provide spatially integrated fluxes across path lengths of 2.8 km and 5.5 km over Swindon, UK. The shorter scintillometer path spans newly built residential areas and has an approximate source area of 2-4 km2, whilst the long path extends from the rural outskirts to the town centre and has a source area of around 5-10 km2. These large-scale heat fluxes are compared with local-scale eddy covariance measurements. Clear seasonal trends are revealed by the long duration of this dataset and variability in monthly QH is related to the meteorological conditions. At shorter time scales the response of QH to solar radiation often gives rise to close agreement between the measurements, but during times of rapidly changing cloud cover spatial differences in the net radiation (Q*) coincide with greater differences between heat fluxes. For clear days QH lags Q*, thus the ratio of QH to Q* increases throughout the day. In summer the observed energy partitioning is related to the vegetation fraction through use of a footprint model. The results demonstrate the value of scintillometry for integrating surface heterogeneity and offer improved understanding of the influence of anthropogenic materials on surface-atmosphere interactions.

Climate perspective on the large-scale circulation associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

The landfall of Cyclone Catarina on the Brazilian coast in March 2004 became known as the first documented hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean, promoting a new view oil how large-scale features can contribute to tropical transition. The aim of this paper is to put the large-scale circulation associated with Catarina`s transition in climate perspective. This is discussed in the light of a robust pattern of spatial correlations between thermodynamic and dynamic variables of importance for hurricane formation. A discussion on how transition mechanisms respond to the present-day circulation is presented. These associations help in understanding why Catarina was formed in a region previously thought to be hurricane-free. Catarina developed over a large-scale area of thermodynamically favourable air/sea temperature contrast. This aspect explains the paradox that such a rare system developed when the sea surface temperature was slightly below average. But, although thermodynamics played an important role, it is apparent that Catarina would not have formed without the key dynamic interplay triggered by a high latitude blocking. The blocking was associated with an extreme positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) both hemispherically and locally, and the nearby area where Catarina developed is found to be more cyclonic during the positive phase of the SAM. A conceptual model is developed and a `South Atlantic index` is introduced as a useful diagnostic of potential conditions leading to tropical transition in the area, where large-scale indices indicate trends towards more favourable atmospheric conditions for tropical cyclone formation. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Disrupted fine-scale population processes in fragmented landscapes despite large-scale genetic connectivity for a widespread and common cooperative breeder : the superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus)

Understanding how habitat fragmentation affects population processes (e.g. dispersal) at different spatial scales is of critical importance to conservation. We assessed the effects of habitat fragmentation on dispersal and regional and fine-scale population structure in a currently widespread and common cooperatively breeding bird species found across south-eastern Australia, the superb fairy-wren Malurus cyaneus. Despite its relative abundance and classification as an urban tolerant species, the superb fairy-wren has declined disproportionately from low tree-cover agricultural landscapes across the Box-Ironbark region of north-central Victoria, Australia. Loss of genetic connectivity and disruption to its complex social system may be associated with the decline of this species from apparently suitable habitat in landscapes with low levels of tree cover. To assess whether reduced structural connectivity has had negative consequences for genetic connectivity in the superb fairy-wren, we used a landscape-scale approach to compare patterns of genetic diversity and gene flow at large (landscape/regional) and fine (site-level) spatial scales. In addition, using genetic distances, for each sex, we tested landscape models of decreased dispersal through treeless areas (isolation-by-resistance) while controlling for the effect of isolation-by-distance. Landscape models indicated that larger-scale gene flow across the Box-Ironbark region was constrained by distance rather than by lack of structural connectivity. Nonetheless, a pattern of isolation-by-resistance for males (the less-dispersive sex) and lower genetic diversity and higher genetic similarity within sites in low-cover fragmented landscapes indicated disruption to fine-scale gene flow mechanisms and/or mating systems. Although loss of structural connectivity did not appear to impede gene flow at larger spatial scales, fragmentation appeared to affect fine-scale population processes (e.g. local gene flow mechanisms and/or mating systems) adversely and may contribute to the decline of superb fairy-wrens in fragmented landscapes in the Box-Ironbark region. © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Large-scale statistical modeling of motion patterns : a Bayesian nonparametric approach

We propose a novel framework for large-scale scene understanding in static camera surveillance. Our techniques combine fast rank-1 constrained robust PCA to compute the foreground, with non-parametric Bayesian models for inference. Clusters are extracted in foreground patterns using a joint multinomial+Gaussian Dirichlet process model (DPM). Since the multinomial distribution is normalized, the Gaussian mixture distinguishes between similar spatial patterns but different activity levels (eg. car vs bike). We propose a modification of the decayed MCMC technique for incremental inference, providing the ability to discover theoretically unlimited patterns in unbounded video streams. A promising by-product of our framework is online, abnormal activity detection. A benchmark video and two surveillance videos, with the longest being 140 hours long are used in our experiments. The patterns discovered are as informative as existing scene understanding algorithms. However, unlike existing work, we achieve near real-time execution and encouraging performance in abnormal activity detection.

Search for large extra spatial dimensions in dimuon production with the D0 detector

We present the results of a search for the effects of large extra spatial dimensions in p (p) over bar collisions at root s = 1: 96 TeV in events containing a pair of energetic muons. The data correspond to 246 pb(-1) of integrated luminosity collected by the D0 experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. Good agreement with the expected background was found, yielding no evidence for large extra dimensions. We set 95% C. L. lower limits on the fundamental Planck scale between 0.85 and 1.27 TeV within several formalisms. These are the most stringent limits achieved in the dimuon channel to date.

Search for Large Extra Spatial Dimensions in the Dielectron and Diphoton Channels in p(p)over-bar Collisions at root s=1.96 TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Large-Scale Water Productivity Assessments with MODIS Images in a Changing Semi-Arid Environment: A Brazilian Case Study

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Field-scale spatial correlation between contents of iron oxides and CO2 emission in an Oxisol cultivated with sugarcane

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A tuple space implementation for large-scale infrastructures

Coordinating activities in a distributed system is an open research topic. Several models have been proposed to achieve this purpose such as message passing, publish/subscribe, workflows or tuple spaces. We have focused on the latter model, trying to overcome some of its disadvantages. In particular we have applied spatial database techniques to tuple spaces in order to increase their performance when handling a large number of tuples. Moreover, we have studied how structured peer to peer approaches can be applied to better distribute tuples on large networks. Using some of these result, we have developed a tuple space implementation for the Globus Toolkit that can be used by Grid applications as a coordination service. The development of such a service has been quite challenging due to the limitations imposed by XML serialization that have heavily influenced its design. Nevertheless, we were able to complete its implementation and use it to implement two different types of test applications: a completely parallelizable one and a plasma simulation that is not completely parallelizable. Using this last application we have compared the performance of our service against MPI. Finally, we have developed and tested a simple workflow in order to show the versatility of our service.

Marine biodiversity survey in the Northern Red Sea: a large-scale monitoring carried out in collaboration with volunteer divers

Concerns over global change and its effect on coral reef survivorship have highlighted the need for long-term datasets and proxy records, to interpret environmental trends and inform policymakers. Citizen science programs have showed to be a valid method for collecting data, reducing financial and time costs for institutions. This study is based on the elaboration of data collected by recreational divers and its main purpose is to evaluate changes in the state of coral reef biodiversity in the Red Sea over a long term period and validate the volunteer-based monitoring method. Volunteers recreational divers completed a questionnaire after each dive, recording the presence of 72 animal taxa and negative reef conditions. Comparisons were made between records from volunteers and independent records from a marine biologist who performed the same dive at the same time. A total of 500 volunteers were tested in 78 validation trials. Relative values of accuracy, reliability and similarity seem to be comparable to those performed by volunteer divers on precise transects in other projects, or in community-based terrestrial monitoring. 9301 recreational divers participated in the monitoring program, completing 23,059 survey questionnaires in a 5-year period. The volunteer-sightings-based index showed significant differences between the geographical areas. The area of Hurghada is distinguished by a medium-low biodiversity index, heavily damaged by a not controlled anthropic exploitation. Coral reefs along the Ras Mohammed National Park at Sharm el Sheikh, conversely showed high biodiversity index. The detected pattern seems to be correlated with the conservation measures adopted. In our experience and that of other research institutes, citizen science can integrate conventional methods and significantly reduce costs and time. Involving recreational divers we were able to build a large data set, covering a wide geographic area. The main limitation remains the difficulty of obtaining an homogeneous spatial sampling distribution.