Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.

Socio-demographic correlates of physical activity of European adults: A cross-sectional study from the European Social Survey

ABSTRACT - Background: From a public health perspective, the study of socio-demographic factors related to physical activity is important in order to identify subgroups for intervention programs. Purpose: This study also aimed to identify the prevalence and the socio-demographic correlates related with the achievement of recommended physical activity levels. Methods: Using data from the European Social Survey round 6, physical activity and socio-demographic characteristics were collected from 39278 European adults (18271 men, 21006 women), aged 18-64 years, from 28 countries in 2012. Meeting physical activity guidelines was assessed using World Health Organization criteria. Results: 64.50% (63.36% men, 66.49% women) attained physical activity recommended levels. The likelihood of attaining physical activity recommendations was higher in age group of 55-64 years (men: OR=1.22, p<0.05; women: OR=1.66, p<0.001), among those who had completed high school (men: OR=1.28, p<0.01; women: OR=1.26, p<0.05), among those who lived in rural areas (men: OR=1.20, p<0.001; women: OR=1.10, p<0.05), and among those who had 3 or more people living at home (men: OR=1.40, p<0.001; women: OR=1.43, p<0.001). On the other hand, attaining physical activity recommendations was negatively associated with being unemployed (men: OR=0.70, p<0.001; women: OR=0.87, p<0.05), being a student (men: OR=0.56, p<0.001; women: OR=0.64, p<0.01), being a retired person (men: OR=0.86, p<0.05) and with having a higher household income (OR=0.80, p<0.001; women: OR=0.81, p<0.01). Conclusion: This research helped clarify that, as the promotion of physical activity is critical to sustain health and prevent disease, socio-demographic factors are important to consider when planning the increase of physical activity.

Improving practical reasoning and argumentation

This thesis justifies the need for and develops a new integrated model of practical reasoning and argumentation. After framing the work in terms of what is reasonable rather than what is rational (chapter 1), I apply the model for practical argumentation analysis and evaluation provided by Fairclough and Fairclough (2012) to a paradigm case of unreasonable individual practical argumentation provided by mass murderer Anders Behring Breivik (chapter 2). The application shows that by following the model, Breivik is relatively easily able to conclude that his reasoning to mass murder is reasonable – which is understood to be an unacceptable result. Causes for the model to allow such a conclusion are identified as conceptual confusions ingrained in the model, a tension in how values function within the model, and a lack of creativity from Breivik. Distinguishing between dialectical and dialogical, reasoning and argumentation, for individual and multiple participants, chapter 3 addresses these conceptual confusions and helps lay the foundation for the design of a new integrated model for practical reasoning and argumentation (chapter 4). After laying out the theoretical aspects of the new model, it is then used to re-test Breivik’s reasoning in light of a developed discussion regarding the motivation for the new place and role of moral considerations (chapter 5). The application of the new model shows ways that Breivik could have been able to conclude that his practical argumentation was unreasonable and is thus argued to have improved upon the Fairclough and Fairclough model. It is acknowledged, however, that since the model cannot guarantee a reasonable conclusion, improving the critical creative capacity of the individual using it is also of paramount importance (chapter 6). The thesis concludes by discussing the contemporary importance of improving practical reasoning and by pointing to areas for further research (chapter 7).

International placement analysis of the German business market for a Nova Achool of Business and Economics graduate student

Changes in today’s society led to the evolution of professional migrations and individual searches for more suitable professional opportunities and careers outside one’s countries. International Placement is nowadays one of the world’s biggest trends in higher education for the future ahead and an appealing demand of the Millennium generations. The following work project aims to study the German business market identifying the most attractive German companies and respective graduate programs for a Nova School of Business and Economics graduate student. The study’s conclusion relies on concrete strategic suggestions regarding the implementation of the results and practical use of the outcome provided.

Improving retail banking staff incentive systems

This Work Project seeks to analyze the viability, utility and best way of implementing mechanisms of double accounting and of insertion of low (or null) sales objectives in an incentives program. The main findings are that both processes are possible and to a certain extent advisable, although in very specific ways and with some limitations. Double accounting processes are especially effective between different segments and networks and should have a greater impact in the first evaluation periods of each case and the null objectives, albeit usable, are recommended to be always substituted by positive objectives, even if quite small. Moreover, it is concluded that the formal structure of the incentives program influences significantly these concepts, namely concerning the duration of the evaluation periods and the interaction of the objectives of different entities for both the vertical (hierarchic) and horizontal (individual and collective) levels.

Improving Millennium Bank's personal finance manager

Double Degree

The tutor's role in student learning

Higher education in Portugal, in the last forty years, has undergone profound changes with the enlargement of public higher education network, the appearance of new institutions, the quantity and the heterogeneity of students. The implementation of the Bologna Process in European community countries led to the redesign of higher education Portuguese courses as well as their corresponding curricula. In recent years, the use of Project-led education was one of the most significant changes in teaching and learning, particularly in engineering in higher education in Portugal. This teaching methodology encourages students and teachers to undertake new roles, new responsibilities and a new learning perspective. This study aims at understanding whether the role of the tutor is to be suitable to the needs and expectations of Project-led education students. These changes however are not only structural. At the University of Minho, new teaching and learning methodologies were adopted, which could guide the training of professionals on to the twenty-first century. The opportunity arising from the implementation of Project-led education in Engineering methodology was used in the University of Minho’s courses. This teaching method is intended to provide students with educational support programs that benefit the academic performance, allowing the opportunity to upgrade, train and develop the ability to study and learn more effectively. Through the Project-led education it is possible to provide students with techniques and procedures and develop the ability to communicate orally and in writing. Students and teachers have assumed new roles in the teaching-learning process allowing in one hand the students to explore, discover and question themselves about some knowledge and on the other hand the teachers to change to a tutor, a companion and to a student project guide. Therefore, surveys were analyzed, comprising questions about the most significant contribution of the tutor as well as if there are some initial expectations that have not been foreseen by the tutor.

Os contributos do texto literário para o ensino-aprendizagem de PLE: elaboração de uma proposta de didatização de um conto de Sophia de Mello Breyner Andresen

Dissertação de mestrado em Português Língua Não Materna (PLNM) – Português Língua Estrangeira (PLE) e Língua Segunda (PL2)

Trabalhos para casa no 1.ºCiclo: ter ou não ter, eis a questão

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Educação Pré-Escolar e Ensino do 1.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico

Assessing student individual performance within PBL teams: findings from the implementation of a new mechanism

This paper reports on the experience of the implementation of a new mechanism to assess individual student contribution within project work, where students work in teams to solve a large-scale open-ended interdisciplinary project. The study takes place at the University of Minho, with first year engineering students, enrolled in the Industrial Management and Engineering (Integrated Masters) degree. The aim of this paper is to describe the main principles and procedures underlying the assessment mechanism created and also provide some feedback from its first implementation, based on the students, lecturers and tutors perceptions. For data collection, a survey was sent to all course lecturers and tutors involved in the assessment process. Students also contributed with suggestions, both on a workshop held at the end of the project and also by answering a survey on the overall satisfaction with PBL experience. Findings show a positive level of acceptance of the new mechanism by the students and also by the lecturers and tutors. The study identified the need to clarify the criteria used by the lecturers and the exact role of the tutor, as well as the need for further improvement of its features and procedures. Some recommendations are also issued regarding technical aspects related to some of the steps of the procedures, as well as the need for greater support on the adjustment and final setting of the individual grades.

Improving selective collection of urban waste using a business intelligence system

Today recovering urban waste requires effective management services, which usually imply sophisticated monitoring and analysis mechanisms. This is essential for the smooth running of the entire recycling process as well as for planning and control urban waste recovering. In this paper we present a business intelligence system especially designed and im- plemented to support regular decision-making tasks on urban waste management processes. The system provides a set of domain-oriented analytical tools for studying and characterizing poten- tial scenarios of collection processes of urban waste, as well as for supporting waste manage- ment in urban areas, allowing for the organization and optimization of collection services. In or- der to clarify the way the system was developed and the how it operates, particularly in process visualization and data analysis, we also present the organization model of the system, the ser- vices it disposes, and the interface platforms for exploring data.

Improving quality of medical service with mobile health software

An increasing number of m-Health applications are being developed benefiting health service delivery. In this paper, a new methodology based on the principle of calm computing applied to diagnostic and therapeutic procedure reporting is proposed. A mobile application was designed for the physicians of one of the Portuguese major hospitals, which takes advantage of a multi-agent interoperability platform, the Agency for the Integration, Diffusion and Archive (AIDA). This application allows the visualization of inpatients and outpatients medical reports in a quicker and safer manner, in addition to offer a remote access to information. This project shows the advantages in the use of mobile software in a medical environment but the first step is always to build or use an interoperability platform, flexible, adaptable and pervasive. The platform offers a comprehensive set of services that restricts the development of mobile software almost exclusively to the mobile user interface design. The technology was tested and assessed in a real context by intensivists.

Improving buildings energy performance: comparison between simple payback period and life cycle costs analysis

The building sector is one of the Europeâ s main energy consumer, making buildings an important target for a wiser energy use, improving indoor comfort conditions and reducing the energy consumption. To achieve the European Union targets for energy consumption and carbon reductions it is crucial to act in new, but also in existing buildings, which constitute the majority of the building stock. In existing buildings, the significant improvement of their efficiency requires important investments. Therefore, costs are a major concern in the decision making process and the analysis of the cost effectiveness of the interventions is an important path in the guidance for the selection of the different renovation scenarios. The Portuguese thermal legislation considers the simple payback method for the calculations of the time for the return of the investment. However, this method does not take into consideration inflation, cash flows and cost of capital, as well as the future costs of energy and the building elements lifetime as it happens in a life cycle cost analysis. In order to understand the impact of the economic analysis method used in the choice of the renovation measures, a case study has been analysed using simple payback calculations and life cycle costs analysis. Overall results show that less far-reaching renovation measures are indicated when using the simple payback calculations which may be leading to solutions less cost-effective in a long run perspective.

Investigação qualitativa em psicologia da educação: estudo dos perfis de alunos de mérito escolar

A investigação qualitativa tem ocupado progressivamente um espaço no campo da investigação em Psicologia, nomeadamente em Psicologia da Educação. Neste trabalho ilustramos o recurso a esta metodologia no estudo da excelência académica. Os participantes foram dois alunos (um rapaz e uma rapariga) a frequentarem o 1o ciclo do ensino superior português, considerados de mérito académico. Os dados foram recolhidos através de entrevista semiestruturada e de provas psicológicas para avaliar a criatividade (TTCT) e a inteligência geral (D-48). Os resultados apontam para a pertinência de fatores motivacionais e de personalidade na justificação do desempenho académico elevado. Termina-se com algumas reflexões e linhas orientadoras para a continuidade dos estudos na área

t-­stories: improving and expanding t-­words

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