Dimethyl sulfide and other biogenic volatile organic compound emissions from branching coral and reef seawater: Potential sources of secondary aerosol over the Great Barrier Reef

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the headspace of bubble chambers containing branches of live coral in filtered reef seawater were analysed using gas chromatography with mass spectrometry (GC-MS). When the coral released mucus it was a source of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and isoprene; however, these VOCs were not emitted to the chamber headspace from mucus-free coral. This finding, which suggests that coral is an intermittent source of DMS and isoprene, was supported by the observation of occasional large pulses of atmospheric DMS (DMSa) over Heron Island reef on the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, in the austral winter. The highest DMSa pulse (320 ppt) was three orders of magnitude less than the DMS mixing ratio (460 ppb) measured in the headspace of a dynamically purged bubble chamber containing a mucus-coated branch of Acropora aspera indicating that coral reefs can be strong point sources of DMSa. Static headspace GC-MS analysis of coral fragments identified mainly DMS and seven other minor reduced sulfur compounds including dimethyl disulfide, methyl mercaptan, and carbon disulfide, while coral reef seawater was an indicated source of methylene chloride, acetone, and methyl ethyl ketone. The VOCs emitted by coral and reef seawater are capable of producing new atmospheric particles < 15 nm diameter as observed at Heron Island reef. DMS and isoprene are known to play a role in low-level cloud formation, so aerosol precursors such as these could influence regional climate through a sea surface temperature regulation mechanism hypothesized to operate over the GBR.

Decomposition analysis to examine Australia’s 2030 GHGs emissions target: How hard will it be to achieve?

The Australian government has recently pledged a reduction in GHGs emissions of 26–28% below the 2005 level by 2030. How big is the challenge for the country to achieve this target in terms of its present emissions profile, recent historical trends, and the contributions to those trends from key proximate factors contributing to emissions? In this paper, we attempt a quantitative judgement of the challenge by using decomposition analysis. Based on the analysis it appears the announced target will be quite challenging to achieve if the average annual mitigating effects from economic restructuring, energy efficiency improvements and movement towards less emissions-intensive energy sources in evidence over 2002–2013 continued through to 2030; however, if the contribution from these mitigating sources in evidence over 2006–2013 can be sustained, achievement of the target will be much less challenging. The challenge for government then will be to provide a policy framework to ensure the more pronounced beneficial impacts of the mitigating factors evidenced during 2006–2013 can be maintained over the years to 2030.

Climate change and agriculture: theory and application of mitigation policies

Agriculture’s contribution to climate change is controversial as it is a significant source of greenhouse gases but also a sink of carbon. Hence its economic and technological potential to mitigate climate change have been argued to be noteworthy. However, social profitability of emission mitigation is a result from factors among emission reductions such as surface water quality impact or profit from production. Consequently, to value comprehensive results of agricultural climate emission mitigation practices, these co-effects to environment and economics should be taken into account. The objective of this thesis was to develop an integrated economic and ecological model to analyse the social welfare of crop cultivation in Finland on distinctive cultivation technologies, conventional tillage and conservation tillage (no-till). Further, we ask whether it would be privately or socially profitable to allocate some of barley cultivation for alternative land use, such as green set-aside or afforestation, when production costs, GHG’s and water quality impacts are taken into account. In the theoretical framework we depict the optimal input use and land allocation choices in terms of environmental impacts and profit from production and derive the optimal tax and payment policies for climate and water quality friendly land allocation. The empirical application of the model uses Finnish data about production cost and profit structure and environmental impacts. According to our results, given emission mitigation practices are not self-evidently beneficial for farmers or society. On the contrary, in some cases alternative land allocation could even reduce social welfare, profiting conventional crop cultivation. This is the case regarding mineral soils such as clay and silt soils. On organic agricultural soils, climate mitigation practices, in this case afforestation and green fallow give more promising results, decreasing climate emissions and nutrient runoff to water systems. No-till technology does not seem to profit climate mitigation although it does decrease other environmental impacts. Nevertheless, the data behind climate emission mitigation practices impact to production and climate is limited and partly contradictory. More specific experiment studies on interaction of emission mitigation practices and environment would be needed. Further study would be important. Particularly area specific production and environmental factors and also food security and safety and socio-economic impacts should be taken into account.

From environmental concerns towards sustainable food provisioning. : Material flow and food consumption scenario studies on sustainability of agri-food systems

Agriculture is an economic activity that heavily relies on the availability of natural resources. Through its role in food production agriculture is a major factor affecting public welfare and health, and its indirect contribution to gross domestic product and employment is significant. Agriculture also contributes to numerous ecosystem services through management of rural areas. However, the environmental impact of agriculture is considerable and reaches far beyond the agroecosystems. The questions related to farming for food production are, thus, manifold and of great public concern. Improving environmental performance of agriculture and sustainability of food production, sustainabilizing food production, calls for application of wide range of expertise knowledge. This study falls within the field of agro-ecology, with interphases to food systems and sustainability research and exploits the methods typical of industrial ecology. The research in these fields extends from multidisciplinary to interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary, a holistic approach being the key tenet. The methods of industrial ecology have been applied extensively to explore the interaction between human economic activity and resource use. Specifically, the material flow approach (MFA) has established its position through application of systematic environmental and economic accounting statistics. However, very few studies have applied MFA specifically to agriculture. The MFA approach was used in this thesis in such a context in Finland. The focus of this study is the ecological sustainability of primary production. The aim was to explore the possibilities of assessing ecological sustainability of agriculture by using two different approaches. In the first approach the MFA-methods from industrial ecology were applied to agriculture, whereas the other is based on the food consumption scenarios. The two approaches were used in order to capture some of the impacts of dietary changes and of changes in production mode on the environment. The methods were applied at levels ranging from national to sector and local levels. Through the supply-demand approach, the viewpoint changed between that of food production to that of food consumption. The main data sources were official statistics complemented with published research results and expertise appraisals. MFA approach was used to define the system boundaries, to quantify the material flows and to construct eco-efficiency indicators for agriculture. The results were further elaborated for an input-output model that was used to analyse the food flux in Finland and to determine its relationship to the economy-wide physical and monetary flows. The methods based on food consumption scenarios were applied at regional and local level for assessing feasibility and environmental impacts of relocalising food production. The approach was also used for quantification and source allocation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of primary production. GHG assessment provided, thus, a means of crosschecking the results obtained by using the two different approaches. MFA data as such or expressed as eco-efficiency indicators, are useful in describing the overall development. However, the data are not sufficiently detailed for identifying the hot spots of environmental sustainability. Eco-efficiency indicators should not be bluntly used in environmental assessment: the carrying capacity of the nature, the potential exhaustion of non-renewable natural resources and the possible rebound effect need also to be accounted for when striving towards improved eco-efficiency. The input-output model is suitable for nationwide economy analyses and it shows the distribution of monetary and material flows among the various sectors. Environmental impact can be captured only at a very general level in terms of total material requirement, gaseous emissions, energy consumption and agricultural land use. Improving environmental performance of food production requires more detailed and more local information. The approach based on food consumption scenarios can be applied at regional or local scales. Based on various diet options the method accounts for the feasibility of re-localising food production and environmental impacts of such re-localisation in terms of nutrient balances, gaseous emissions, agricultural energy consumption, agricultural land use and diversity of crop cultivation. The approach is applicable anywhere, but the calculation parameters need to be adjusted so as to comply with the specific circumstances. The food consumption scenario approach, thus, pays attention to the variability of production circumstances, and may provide some environmental information that is locally relevant. The approaches based on the input-output model and on food consumption scenarios represent small steps towards more holistic systemic thinking. However, neither one alone nor the two together provide sufficient information for sustainabilizing food production. Environmental performance of food production should be assessed together with the other criteria of sustainable food provisioning. This requires evaluation and integration of research results from many different disciplines in the context of a specified geographic area. Foodshed area that comprises both the rural hinterlands of food production and the population centres of food consumption is suggested to represent a suitable areal extent for such research. Finding a balance between the various aspects of sustainability is a matter of optimal trade-off. The balance cannot be universally determined, but the assessment methods and the actual measures depend on what the bottlenecks of sustainability are in the area concerned. These have to be agreed upon among the actors of the area

Climate change, sustainable development and India: Global and national concerns

Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, with implications for food production, water supply, health, energy, etc. Addressing climate change requires a good scientific understanding as well as coordinated action at national and global level. This paper addresses these challenges. Historically, the responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions' increase lies largely with the industrialized world, though the developing countries are likely to be the source of an increasing proportion of future emissions. The projected climate change under various scenarios is likely to have implications on food production, water supply, coastal settlements, forest ecosystems, health, energy security, etc. The adaptive capacity of communities likely to be impacted by climate change is low in developing countries. The efforts made by the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol provisions are clearly inadequate to address the climate change challenge. The most effective way to address climate change is to adopt a sustainable development pathway by shifting to environmentally sustainable technologies and promotion of energy efficiency, renewable energy, forest conservation, reforestation, water conservation, etc. The issue of highest importance to developing countries is reducing the vulnerability of their natural and socio-economic systems to the projected climate change. India and other developing countries will face the challenge of promoting mitigation and adaptation strategies, bearing the cost of such an effort, and its implications for economic development.

Greening India Mission

The Government of India has announced the Greening India Mission (GIM) under the National Climate Change Action Plan. The Mission aims to restore and afforest about 10 mha over the period 2010-2020 under different sub-missions covering moderately dense and open forests, scrub/grasslands, mangroves, wetlands, croplands and urban areas. Even though the main focus of the Mission is to address mitigation and adaptation aspects in the context of climate change, the adaptation component is inadequately addressed. There is a need for increased scientific input in the preparation of the Mission. The mitigation potential is estimated by simply multiplying global default biomass growth rate values and area. It is incomplete as it does not include all the carbon pools, phasing, differing growth rates, etc. The mitigation potential estimated using the Comprehensive Mitigation Analysis Process model for the GIM for the year 2020 has the potential to offset 6.4% of the projected national greenhouse gas emissions, compared to the GIM estimate of only 1.5%, excluding any emissions due to harvesting or disturbances. The selection of potential locations for different interventions and species choice under the GIM must be based on the use of modelling, remote sensing and field studies. The forest sector provides an opportunity to promote mitigation and adaptation synergy, which is not adequately addressed in the GIM. Since many of the interventions proposed are innovative and limited scientific knowledge exists, there is need for an unprecedented level of collaboration between the research institutions and the implementing agencies such as the Forest Departments, which is currently non-existent. The GIM could propel systematic research into forestry and climate change issues and thereby provide global leadership in this new and emerging science.

Use of wetland buffer areas to reduce nitrogen transport from forested catchments: Retention capacity, emissions of N2O and CH4 and vegetation composition dynamics

The use of buffer areas in forested catchments has been actively researched during the last 15 years; but until now, the research has mainly concentrated on the reduction of sediment and phosphorus loads, instead of nitrogen (N). The aim of this thesis was to examine the use of wetland buffer areas to reduce the nitrogen transport in forested catchments and to investigate the environmental impacts involved in their use. Besides the retention capacity, particular attention was paid to the main factors contributing to the N retention, the potential for increased N2O emissions after large N loading, the effects of peatland restoration for use as buffer areas on CH4 emissions, as well as the vegetation composition dynamics induced by the use of peatlands as buffer areas. To study the capacity of buffer areas to reduce N transport in forested catchments, we first used large artificial loadings of N, and then studied the capacity of buffer areas to reduce ammonium (NH4-N) export originating from ditch network maintenance areas in forested catchments. The potential for increased N2O emissions were studied using the closed chamber technique and a large artificial N loading at five buffer areas. Sampling for CH4 emissions and methane-cycling microbial populations were done on three restored buffer areas and on three buffers constructed on natural peatlands. Vegetation composition dynamics was studied at three buffer areas between 1996 and 2009. Wetland buffer areas were efficient in retaining inorganic N from inflow. The key factors contributing to the retention were the size and the length of the buffer, the hydrological loading and the rate of nutrient loading. Our results show that although the N2O emissions may increase temporarily to very high levels after a large N loading into the buffer area, the buffer areas in forested catchments should be viewed as insignificant sources of N2O. CH4 fluxes were substantially higher from buffers constructed on natural peatlands than from the restored buffer areas, probably because of the slow recovery of methanogens after restoration. The use of peatlands as buffer areas was followed by clear changes in plant species composition and the largest changes occurred in the upstream parts of the buffer areas and the wet lawn-level surfaces, where the contact between the vegetation and the through-flow waters was closer than for the downstream parts and dry hummock sites. The changes in the plant species composition may be an undesired phenomenon especially in the case of the mires representing endangered mire site types, and therefore the construction of new buffer areas should be primarily directed into drained peatland areas.

Naudanlihan jalostusketjun hiilijalanjälki Suomessa

Kirjallisuustutkimuksen tavoitteena oli perehtyä kasvihuoneilmiön taustoihin ja kartoittaa aiempia tutkimuksia naudan- ja muiden lihatuotteiden kasvihuonekaasupäästöistä. Lisäksi kirjallisuustutkimuksessa perehdyttiin aiemmissa tutkimuksissa elintarvikkeiden hiilijalanjäljen laskemisessa sovellettuun elinkaarianalyysiin ISO 14040-standardin mukaisesti. Kokeellisen osion tavoitteena oli määrittää naudanlihan hiilijalanjälki Suomessa maatilan portilta kuluttajan ruokapöytään. Tavoitteena oli myös ymmärtää jalostusketjun päästöjen merkitys verrattuna koko naudanlihan tuotantoketjuun ja määrittää jalostusketjun vaiheiden merkitys ketjussa. Työn toiminnallisena yksikkönä toimi kilo naudanlihaa. Työ toteutettiin perehtymällä yksityiskohtaisesti yhteen naudanlihan jalostusketjuun Suomessa. Päästöt laskettiin todellisten yhteistyöyritykseltä saatujen prosessitietojen perusteella. Tiedot kerättiin tiedonkeruulomakkeella vierailemalla yhteistyöyrityksen kahdessa tuotantolaitoksessa ja täydentämällä tietoja haastatteluilla. Naudanlihan jalostusketjun päästöt olivat 1240 g CO2-ekv/lihakilo. Eniten päästöjä tuottivat jalostusvaihe (310 g CO2-ekv/lihakilo), teurastus (280 g CO2-ekv/lihakilo) ja lihatuotteiden kuljetus kuluttajalle (210 g CO2-ekv/lihakilo). Koko naudanlihan tuotantoketjusta jalostusketjun päästöt muodostivat alle 4 %, sillä syntymästä maatilan portille syntyviksi päästöiksi laskettiin kirjallisuuden perusteella yli 30 000 g CO2-ekv/lihakilo. Jatkossa naudanlihan hiilijalanjälkeä voitaisiin pääasiassa pienentää kehittämällä prosessia maatilan portille asti. Tämän työn tulokset olivat hyvin samansuuruiset verrattuna aiempaan tutkimukseen broilerin jalostusketjun päästöistä Suomessa (Katajajuuri ym. 2008). Tämä vastasi ennakko-odotuksia, sillä jalostusketjujen vaiheissa ei ollut merkittäviä eroja. Aiempia tutkimuksia naudanlihan jalostusketjun päästöistä ei ollut saatavilla.

Lumettoman maan routaolojen mallintaminen ja ennustettavuus muuttuvassa ilmastossa

Raportissa on arvioitu ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusta Suomen maaperän talviaikaiseen jäätymiseen lämpösummien perusteella. Laskelmat kuvaavat roudan paksuutta nimenomaisesti lumettomilla alueilla, esimerkiksi teillä, joilta satanut lumi aurataan pois. Luonnossa lämpöä eristävän lumipeitteen alla routaa on ohuemmin kuin tällaisilla lumettomilla alueilla. Toisaalta luonnollisessa ympäristössä paikalliset erot korostuvat johtuen mm. maalajeista ja kasvillisuudesta. Roudan paksuudet laskettiin ensin perusjakson 1971–2000 ilmasto-oloissa talviaikaisten säähavaintotietoihin pohjautuvien lämpötilojen perusteella. Sen jälkeen laskelmat toistettiin kolmelle tulevalle ajanjaksolle (2010–2039, 2040–2069 ja 2070–2099) kohottamalla lämpötiloja ilmastonmuutosmallien ennustamalla tavalla. Laskelman pohjana käytettiin 19 ilmastomallin A1B-skenaarioajojen keskimäärin simuloimaa lämpötilan muutosta. Tulosten herkkyyden arvioimiseksi joitakin laskelmia tehtiin myös tätä selvästi heikompaa ja voimakkaampaa lämpenemisarviota käyttäen. A1B-skenaarion mukaisen lämpötilan nousun toteutuessa nykyisiä mallituloksia vastaavasti routakerros ohenee sadan vuoden aikana Pohjois-Suomessa 30–40 %, suuressa osassa maan keski- ja eteläosissa 50–70 %. Jo lähivuosikymmeninä roudan ennustetaan ohentuvan 10–30 %, saaristossa enemmän. Mikäli lämpeneminen toteutuisi voimakkaimman tarkastellun vaihtoehdon mukaisesti, roudan syvyys pienenisi tätäkin enemmän. Roudan paksuuden vuosienvälistä vaihtelua ja sen muuttumista tulevaisuudessa pyrittiin myös arvioimaan. Leutoina talvina routa ohenee enemmän kuin normaaleina tai ankarina pakkastalvina. Päivittäistä sään vaihtelua simuloineen säägeneraattorin tuottamassa aineistoissa esiintyi kuitenkin liian vähän hyvin alhaisia ja hyvin korkeita lämpötiloja. Siksi näitten lämpötilatietojen pohjalta laskettu roudan paksuuskin ilmeisesti vaihtelee liian vähän vuodesta toiseen. Kelirikkotilanteita voi esiintyä myös kesken routakauden, jos useamman päivän suojasää ja samanaikainen runsas vesisade pääsevät sulattamaan maata. Tällaiset routakauden aikana sattuvat säätilat näyttävätkin yleistyvän lähivuosikymmeninä. Vuosisadan loppua kohti ne sen sijaan maan eteläosissa jälleen vähenevät, koska routakausi lyhenee oleellisesti. Tulevia vuosikymmeniä koskevien ilmastonmuutosennusteiden ohella routaa ja kelirikon esiintymistä on periaatteessa mahdollista ennustaa myös lähiaikojen sääennusteita hyödyntäen. Pitkät, viikkojen tai kuukausien mittaiset sääennusteet eivät tosin ole ainakaan vielä erityisen luotettavia, mutta myös lyhyemmistä ennusteista voisi olla hyötyä mm. tienpitoa suunniteltaessa.

Rapsista tuotetun biodieselin ja vehnästä tuotetun bioetanolin energiavirrat ja ympäristövaikutukset Euroopan unionissa

The aim of this thesis was to study the crops currently used for biofuel production from the following aspects: 1. what should be the average yield/ ha to reach an energy balance at least 0 or positive 2. what are the shares of the primary and secondary energy flows in agriculture, transport, processing and usage, and 3. overall effects of biofuel crop cultivation, transport, processing and usage. This thesis concentrated on oilseed rape biodiesel and wheat bioethanol in the European Union, comparing them with competing biofuels, such as corn and sugarcane-based ethanol, and the second generation biofuels. The study was executed by comparing Life Cycle Assessment-studies from the EU-region and by analyzing them thoroughly from the differences viewpoint. The variables were the following: energy ratio, hectare yield (l/ha), impact on greenhouse gas emissions (particularly CO2), energy consumption in crop growing and processing one hectare of a particular crop to biofuel, distribution of energy in processing and effects of the secondary energy flows, like e.g. wheat straw. Processing was found to be the most energy consuming part in the production of biofuels. So if the raw materials will remain the same, the development will happen in processing. First generation biodiesel requires esterification, which consumes approximately one third of the process energy. Around 75% of the energy consumed in manufacturing the first generation wheat-based ethanol is spent in steam and electricity generation. No breakthroughs are in sight in the agricultural sector to achieve significantly higher energy ratios. It was found out that even in ideal conditions the energy ratio of first generation wheat-based ethanol will remain slightly under 2. For oilseed rape-based biodiesel the energy ratios are better, and energy consumption per hectare is lower compared to wheat-based ethanol. But both of these are lower compared to e.g. sugarcane-based ethanol. Also the hectare yield of wheat-based ethanol is significantly lower. Biofuels are in a key position when considering the future of the world’s transport sector. Uncertainties concerning biofuels are, however, several, like the schedule of large scale introduction to consumer markets, technologies used, raw materials and their availability and - maybe the biggest - the real production capacity in relation to the fuel consumption. First generation biofuels have not been the expected answer to environmental problems. Comparisons made show that sugarcane-based ethanol is the most prominent first generation biofuel at the moment, both from energy and environment point of view. Also palmoil-based biodiesel looks promising, although it involves environmental concerns as well. From this point of view the biofuels in this study - wheat-based ethanol and oilseed rape-based biodiesel - are not very competitive options. On the other hand, crops currently used for fuel production in different countries are selected based on several factors, not only based on thier relative general superiority. It is challenging to make long-term forecasts for the biofuel sector, but it can be said that satisfying the world's current and near future traffic fuel consumption with biofuels can only be regarded impossible. This does not mean that biofuels shoud be rejected and their positive aspects ignored, but maybe this reality helps us to put them in perspective. To achieve true environmental benefits through the usage of biofuels there must first be a significant drop both in traffic volumes and overall fuel consumption. Second generation biofuels are coming, but serious questions about their availability and production capacities remain open. Therefore nothing can be taken for granted in this issue, expect the need for development.

Carbon Dioxide emissions from an Acacia plantation on peatland in Sumatra, Indonesia

Abstract. Peat surface CO2 emission, groundwater table depth and peat temperature were monitored for two years along transects in an Acacia plantation on thick tropical peat (>4 m) in Sumatra, Indonesia. A total of 2300 emission measurements were taken at 144 locations. The autotrophic root respiration component of the CO2 emission was separated from heterotrophic emissions caused by peat oxidation in three ways: (i) by comparing CO2 emissions within and beyond the tree rooting zone, (ii) by comparing CO2 emissions with and without peat trenching (i.e. cutting any roots remaining in the peat beyond the tree rooting zone), and (iii) by comparing CO2 emissions before and after Acacia tree harvesting. On average, the contribution of root respiration to daytime CO2 emission is 21 % along transects in mature tree stands. At locations 0.5 m from trees this is up to 80 % of the total emissions, but it is negligible at locations more than 1.3 m away. This means that CO2 emission measurements well away from trees are free of any root respiration contribution and thus represent only peat oxidation emission. We find daytime mean annual CO2 emission from peat oxidation alone of 94 t ha−1 yr−1 at a mean water table depth of 0.8 m, and a minimum emission value of 80 t ha−1 yr−1 after correction for the effect of diurnal temperature fluctuations, which resulted in a 14.5 % reduction of the daytime emission. There is a positive correlation between mean long-term water table depths and peat oxidation CO2 emission. However, no such relation is found for instantaneous emission/water table depth within transects and it is clear that factors other than water table depth also affect peat oxidation and total CO2 emissions. The increase in the temperature of the surface peat due to plantation development may explain over 50 % of peat oxidation emissions.

Sensitivity of wetland methane emissions to model assumptions: application and model testing against site observations

Abstract. Methane emissions from natural wetlands and rice paddies constitute a large proportion of atmospheric methane, but the magnitude and year-to-year variation of these methane sources is still unpredictable. Here we describe and evaluate the integration of a methane biogeochemical model (CLM4Me; Riley et al., 2011) into the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4CN) in order to better explain spatial and temporal variations in methane emissions. We test new functions for soil pH and redox potential that impact microbial methane production in soils. We also constrain aerenchyma in plants in always-inundated areas in order to better represent wetland vegetation. Satellite inundated fraction is explicitly prescribed in the model because there are large differences between simulated fractional inundation and satellite observations. A rice paddy module is also incorporated into the model, where the fraction of land used for rice production is explicitly prescribed. The model is evaluated at the site level with vegetation cover and water table prescribed from measurements. Explicit site level evaluations of simulated methane emissions are quite different than evaluating the grid cell averaged emissions against available measurements. Using a baseline set of parameter values, our model-estimated average global wetland emissions for the period 1993–2004 were 256 Tg CH4 yr−1, and rice paddy emissions in the year 2000 were 42 Tg CH4 yr−1. Tropical wetlands contributed 201 Tg CH4 yr−1, or 78 % of the global wetland flux. Northern latitude (>50 N) systems contributed 12 Tg CH4 yr−1. We expect this latter number may be an underestimate due to the low high-latitude inundated area captured by satellites and unrealistically low high-latitude productivity and soil carbon predicted by CLM4. Sensitivity analysis showed a large range (150–346 Tg CH4 yr−1) in predicted global methane emissions. The large range was sensitive to: (1) the amount of methane transported through aerenchyma, (2) soil pH (± 100 Tg CH4 yr−1), and (3) redox inhibition (± 45 Tg CH4 yr−1).