On the Economic Aspects of Unemployment: The Case of Consumer Confidence

Unemployment is related to economic, political and social aspects. One of the least analysed economic aspects is the relationship of unemployment to the level of confidence that characterizes some macroeconomic relevant agents, such as consumers or investors. Expanding previous work on this matter, this chapter considers a fuzzy logic methodology in order to uncover the relationship that exists between the unemployment rate and the consumer confidence level for a large group of European Union countries, in the period 1995-2015. It is concluded that this relationship is stronger than apparently it looks, especially in certain countries. This result should therefore be used as an extra argument in making economic decisions leading to the diminishment of unemployment, which will boost economic confidence.

Favourable areas for expansion and reintroduction of Iberian lynx accounting for distribution trends and genetic diversity of the European rabbit

Although on a local scale Iberian lynx distribution is determined by the availability of prey rabbits, recent modelling analyses have uncovered broad-scale disagreements between these two species’ distribution trends. These analyses showed also that the lynx had become restricted to only a fraction of the rabbit’s genetic diversity, and that this could be jeopardising its survival in the face of environmental hazards and uncertainty. In the present paper, a follow-up was carried out through the building of lynx and rabbit distribution models based on the most recent Spanish mammal atlas. Environmental favourability values for lynx and rabbit were positively correlated within the lynx’s current distribution area, but they were negatively correlated within the total Spanish area where lynx used to occur in the 1980’s. Environmental favourability for rabbits was significantly higher where lynx maintains reproductive populations than where it recently disappeared, indicating that rabbit favourability plays an important role and can be a good predictor of lynx persistence. The lynx and rabbit models were extrapolated to predict favourable areas for both species in Spain as well as in Portugal, on the original scale of the distribution data (10x10 km) and on a 100 times finer spatial resolution (1x1 km). The lynx and rabbit models were also combined through fuzzy logic to forecast the potential for lynx occurrence incorporating information on favourable areas for its main prey. Several areas are proposed as favourable for lynx expansion or re-introduction,

Obtaining environmental favourability functions from logistic regression

Logistic regression is a statistical tool widely used for predicting species’ potential distributions starting from presence/absence data and a set of independent variables. However, logistic regression equations compute probability values based not only on the values of the predictor variables but also on the relative proportion of presences and absences in the dataset, which does not adequately describe the environmental favourability for or against species presence. A few strategies have been used to circumvent this, but they usually imply an alteration of the original data or the discarding of potentially valuable information. We propose a way to obtain from logistic regression an environmental favourability function whose results are not affected by an uneven proportion of presences and absences. We tested the method on the distribution of virtual species in an imaginary territory. The favourability models yielded similar values regardless of the variation in the presence/absence ratio. We also illustrate with the example of the Pyrenean desman’s (Galemys pyrenaicus) distribution in Spain. The favourability model yielded more realistic potential distribution maps than the logistic regression model. Favourability values can be regarded as the degree of membership of the fuzzy set of sites whose environmental conditions are favourable to the species, which enables applying the rules of fuzzy logic to distribution modelling. They also allow for direct comparisons between models for species with different presence/absence ratios in the study area. This makes themmore useful to estimate the conservation value of areas, to design ecological corridors, or to select appropriate areas for species reintroductions.

Realizzazione e validazione di provini in resina epossidica per la simulazione di scariche parziali interne.

L’elaborato si pone l’obiettivo di realizzare e validare dei campioni in resina epossidica per la rilevazione di attività di scariche parziali interne. Nella prima fase dell’attività di ricerca, sono definite le linee progettuali riguardanti la scelta dei materiali da utilizzare, al fine di creare degli stampi per poter ottenere dei campioni di forma idonea e, successivamente, si procede alla scelta del tipo di resina e degli elettrodi da adoperare. All’interno dei provini, viene iniettata, con una siringa di precisione dotata di un ago sottile, una cavità di aria indicante un eventuale difetto nella matrice polimerica dell’isolante, se sottoposto a un determinato tipo di stress (elettrico, termico, meccanico). I provini sono testati in un circuito di prova ad alto voltaggio per la misura della tensione di innesco alla quale si verificano le scariche; attraverso l’utilizzo di un software specifico, viene poi ricavato il PD pattern utile per l’approccio all’identificazione della tipologia di scarica. Inoltre, sono effettuate delle simulazioni con l’ambiente di calcolo Comsol ottenendo il valore del campo elettrico all’interno della cavità di aria. Il PD pattern viene, in seguito, analizzato estrapolando dei marker statistici di interesse per l’applicazione della fuzzy logic. Questa tipologia di logica prevede la verifica di regole linguistiche per la corretta identificazione del tipo di scarica, individuata dal pattern in esame (interna, superficiale o corona). A seconda dei valori ricavati dai marker, vengono applicate le regole della fuzzy logic per poter classificare, nei campioni esaminati, l’attività di scarica parziale come interna.

Embedded DSP-Based Compact Fuzzy System and Its Application for Induction-Motor V/f Speed Control

This paper presents a compact embedded fuzzy system for three-phase induction-motor scalar speed control. The control strategy consists in keeping constant the voltage-frequency ratio of the induction-motor supply source. A fuzzy-control system is built on a digital signal processor, which uses speed error and speed-error variation to change both the fundamental voltage amplitude and frequency of a sinusoidal pulsewidth modulation inverter. An alternative optimized method for embedded fuzzy-system design is also proposed. The controller performance, in relation to reference and load-torque variations, is evaluated by experimental results. A comparative analysis with conventional proportional-integral controller is also achieved.

Real-Time Voltage Regulation in Power Distribution System Using Fuzzy Control

Two different fuzzy approaches to voltage control in electric power distribution systems are introduced in this paper. The real-time controller in each case would act on power transformers equipped with under-load tap changers. Learning systems are employed to turn the voltage-control relays into adaptive devices. The scope of this study has been limited to the power distribution substation, and the voltage measurements and control actions are carried out on the secondary bus. The capacity of fuzzy systems to handle approximate data, together with their unique ability to interpret qualitative information, make it possible to design voltage-control strategies that satisfy the requirements of the Brazilian regulatory bodies and the real concerns of the electric power distribution companies. Fuzzy control systems based on these two strategies have been implemented and the test results were highly satisfactory.

Fuzzy Control System for Voltage Regulation In Power Transformers

A fuzzy control strategy for voltage regulation in electric power distribution systems is introduced in this article. This real-time controller would act on power transformers equipped with under-load tap changers. The fuzzy system was employed to turn the voltage-control relays into adaptive devices. The scope of the present study has been limited to the power distribution substation, and both the voltage measurements and control actions are carried out on the secondary bus. The capacity of fuzzy systems to handle approximate data, together with their unique ability to interpret qualitative information, make it possible to design voltage control strategies that satisfy both the requirements of the Brazilian regulatory bodies and the real concerns of the electric power distribution companies. A prototype based on the fuzzy control strategy proposed in this paper has also been implemented for validation purposes and its experimental results were highly satisfactory.

Supervisory control of wastewater treatment plants by combining principal component analysis and fuzzy c-means clustering

In this paper a methodology for integrated multivariate monitoring and control of biological wastewater treatment plants during extreme events is presented. To monitor the process, on-line dynamic principal component analysis (PCA) is performed on the process data to extract the principal components that represent the underlying mechanisms of the process. Fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering is used to classify the operational state. Performing clustering on scores from PCA solves computational problems as well as increases robustness due to noise attenuation. The class-membership information from FCM is used to derive adequate control set points for the local control loops. The methodology is illustrated by a simulation study of a biological wastewater treatment plant, on which disturbances of various types are imposed. The results show that the methodology can be used to determine and co-ordinate control actions in order to shift the control objective and improve the effluent quality.

Hybrid fuzzy Monte Carlo and logic programming model for distribution network reconfiguration in the presence of outages

This paper presents a methodology for distribution networks reconfiguration in outage presence in order to choose the reconfiguration that presents the lower power losses. The methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of the distribution power system components and uses fuzzy-probabilistic modelling for system component outage parameters. Fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters are obtained by statistical records. A hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. Once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation, a logical programming algorithm is applied to get all possible reconfigurations for every system state. In order to evaluate the line flows and bus voltages and to identify if there is any overloading, and/or voltage violation a distribution power flow has been applied to select the feasible reconfiguration with lower power losses. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper includes a case study that considers a real distribution network.

Logic programming and fuzzy Monte Carlo for distribution network reconfiguration

This paper present a methodology to choose the distribution networks reconfiguration that presents the lower power losses. The proposed methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of the distribution power system components and uses fuzzy-probabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method using fuzzy sets and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzyprobabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A logic programming algorithm is applied, once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo Simulation, to get all possible reconfigurations for each system state. To evaluate the line flows and bus voltages and to identify if there is any overloading, and/or voltage violation an AC load flow has been applied to select the feasible reconfiguration with lower power losses. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 115 buses distribution network.

Fuzzy, integer and fractional-order control: Application on a wind turbine benchmark model

This paper presents a comparison between proportional integral control approaches for variable speed wind turbines. Integer and fractional-order controllers are designed using linearized wind turbine model whilst fuzzy controller also takes into account system nonlinearities. These controllers operate in the full load region and the main objective is to extract maximum power from the wind turbine while ensuring the performance and reliability required to be integrated into an electric grid. The main contribution focuses on the use of fractional-order proportional integral (FOPI) controller which benefits from the introduction of one more tuning parameter, the integral fractional-order, taking advantage over integer order proportional integral (PI) controller. A comparison between proposed control approaches for the variable speed wind turbines is presented using a wind turbine benchmark model in the Matlab/Simulink environment. Results show that FOPI has improved system performance when compared with classical PI and fuzzy PI controller outperforms the integer and fractional-order control due to its capability to deal with system nonlinearities and uncertainties. © 2014 IEEE.

Control of baker’s yeast fermentation: PID and fuzzy algorithms

A MATLAB/SIMULINK-based simulator was employed for studies concerning the control of baker’s yeast fed-batch fermentation. Four control algorithms were implemented and compared: the classical PID control, two discrete versions- modified velocity and position algorithms, and a fuzzy law. The simulation package was seen to be an efficient tool for the simulation and tests of control strategies of the nonlinear process.

Fuzzy, integer and fractional-order control: application on a wind turbine benchmark model

This paper presents a comparison between proportional integral control approaches for variable speed wind turbines. Integer and fractional-order controllers are designed using linearized wind turbine model whilst fuzzy controller also takes into account system nonlinearities. These controllers operate in the full load region and the main objective is to extract maximum power from the wind turbine while ensuring the performance and reliability required to be integrated into an electric grid. The main contribution focuses on the use of fractional-order proportional integral (FOPI) controller which benefits from the introduction of one more tuning parameter, the integral fractional-order, taking advantage over integer order proportional integral (PI) controller. A comparison between proposed control approaches for the variable speed wind turbines is presented using a wind turbine benchmark model in the Matlab/Simulink environment. Results show that FOPI has improved system performance when compared with classical PI and fuzzy PI controller outperforms the integer and fractional-order control due to its capability to deal with system nonlinearities and uncertainties. © 2014 IEEE.

Recursive neuro fuzzy techniques for online identification and control

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores