Dynamic artificial neural network for electricity market prices forecast

This paper presents an artificial neural network applied to the forecasting of electricity market prices, with the special feature of being dynamic. The dynamism is verified at two different levels. The first level is characterized as a re-training of the network in every iteration, so that the artificial neural network can able to consider the most recent data at all times, and constantly adapt itself to the most recent happenings. The second level considers the adaptation of the neural network’s execution time depending on the circumstances of its use. The execution time adaptation is performed through the automatic adjustment of the amount of data considered for training the network. This is an advantageous and indispensable feature for this neural network’s integration in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to the market negotiating players of MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets).

Self-optimization module for scheduling using case-based reasoning

Metaheuristics performance is highly dependent of the respective parameters which need to be tuned. Parameter tuning may allow a larger flexibility and robustness but requires a careful initialization. The process of defining which parameters setting should be used is not obvious. The values for parameters depend mainly on the problem, the instance to be solved, the search time available to spend in solving the problem, and the required quality of solution. This paper presents a learning module proposal for an autonomous parameterization of Metaheuristics, integrated on a Multi-Agent System for the resolution of Dynamic Scheduling problems. The proposed learning module is inspired on Autonomic Computing Self-Optimization concept, defining that systems must continuously and proactively improve their performance. For the learning implementation it is used Case-based Reasoning, which uses previous similar data to solve new cases. In the use of Case-based Reasoning it is assumed that similar cases have similar solutions. After a literature review on topics used, both AutoDynAgents system and Self-Optimization module are described. Finally, a computational study is presented where the proposed module is evaluated, obtained results are compared with previous ones, some conclusions are reached, and some future work is referred. It is expected that this proposal can be a great contribution for the self-parameterization of Metaheuristics and for the resolution of scheduling problems on dynamic environments.

Meta-heuristics self-configuration for scheduling

Scheduling resolution requires the intervention of highly skilled human problemsolvers. This is a very hard and challenging domain because current systems are becoming more and more complex, distributed, interconnected and subject to rapidly changing. A natural Autonomic Computing evolution in relation to Current Computing is to provide systems with Self-Managing ability with a minimum human interference. This paper addresses the resolution of complex scheduling problems using cooperative negotiation. A Multi-Agent Autonomic and Meta-heuristics based framework with self-configuring capabilities is proposed.

Metalearning in ALBidS: A Strategic Bidding System for electricity markets

Metalearning is a subfield of machine learning with special pro-pensity for dynamic and complex environments, from which it is difficult to extract predictable knowledge. The field of study of this work is the electricity market, which due to the restructuring that recently took place, became an especially complex and unpredictable environment, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. This paper presents the development of a metalearner, applied to the decision support of electricity markets’ negotia-tion entities. The proposed metalearner takes advantage on several learning algorithms implemented in ALBidS, an adaptive learning system that pro-vides decision support to electricity markets’ participating players. Using the outputs of each different strategy as inputs, the metalearner creates its own output, considering each strategy with a different weight, depending on its individual quality of performance. The results of the proposed meth-od are studied and analyzed using MASCEM - a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. This simulator provides the chance to test the metalearner in scenarios based on real electricity market´s data.

MASCEM: electricity markets simulation with strategic agents

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving numerous entities trying to obtain the best advantages and profits while limited by power-network characteristics and constraints.1 The restructuring and consequent deregulation of electricity markets introduced a new economic dimension to the power industry. Some observers have criticized the restructuring process, however, because it has failed to improve market efficiency and has complicated the assurance of reliability and fairness of operations. To study and understand this type of market, we developed the Multiagent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets (MASCEM) platform based on multiagent simulation. The MASCEM multiagent model includes players with strategies for bid definition, acting in forward, day-ahead, and balancing markets and considering both simple and complex bids. Our goal with MASCEM was to simulate as many market models and player types as possible. This approach makes MASCEM both a short- and mediumterm simulation as well as a tool to support long-term decisions, such as those taken by regulators. This article proposes a new methodology integrated in MASCEM for bid definition in electricity markets. This methodology uses reinforcement learning algorithms to let players perceive changes in the environment, thus helping them react to the dynamic environment and adapt their bids accordingly.

Seller, buyer and VPP agents behavior on a simulated electricity market

Competitive electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is an electricity market simulator able to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. As market players are complex entities, having their characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players, a multi-agent architecture is used and proved to be adequate. MASCEM players have learning capabilities and different risk preferences. They are able to refine their strategies according to their past experience (both real and simulated) and considering other agents’ behavior. Agents’ behavior is also subject to its risk preferences.

Meta-heuristics tunning using CBR for dynamic scheduling

This paper addresses the problem of Biological Inspired Optimization Techniques (BIT) parameterization, considering the importance of this issue in the design of BIT especially when considering real world situations, subject to external perturbations. A learning module with the objective to permit a Multi-Agent Scheduling System to automatically select a Meta-heuristic and its parameterization to use in the optimization process is proposed. For the learning process, Casebased Reasoning was used, allowing the system to learn from experience, in the resolution of similar problems. Analyzing the obtained results we conclude about the advantages of its use.

Self-optimization aspects for dynamic scheduling

Scheduling is a critical function that is present throughout many industries and applications. A great need exists for developing scheduling approaches that can be applied to a number of different scheduling problems with significant impact on performance of business organizations. A challenge is emerging in the design of scheduling support systems for manufacturing environments where dynamic adaptation and optimization become increasingly important. At this scenario, self-optimizing arise as the ability of the agent to monitor its state and performance and proactively tune itself to respond to environmental stimuli.

Self-optimizing through CBR learning

In this paper, we foresee the use of Multi-Agent Systems for supporting dynamic and distributed scheduling in Manufacturing Systems. We also envisage the use of Autonomic properties in order to reduce the complexity of managing systems and human interference. By combining Multi-Agent Systems, Autonomic Computing, and Nature Inspired Techniques we propose an approach for the resolution of dynamic scheduling problem, with Case-based Reasoning Learning capabilities. The objective is to permit a system to be able to automatically adopt/select a Meta-heuristic and respective parameterization considering scheduling characteristics. From the comparison of the obtained results with previous results, we conclude about the benefits of its use.

Dynamic power- and failure-aware cloud resources allocation for Sets of independent tasks

Cloud computing is increasingly being adopted in different scenarios, like social networking, business applications, scientific experiments, etc. Relying in virtualization technology, the construction of these computing environments targets improvements in the infrastructure, such as power-efficiency and fulfillment of users’ SLA specifications. The methodology usually applied is packing all the virtual machines on the proper physical servers. However, failure occurrences in these networked computing systems can induce substantial negative impact on system performance, deviating the system from ours initial objectives. In this work, we propose adapted algorithms to dynamically map virtual machines to physical hosts, in order to improve cloud infrastructure power-efficiency, with low impact on users’ required performance. Our decision making algorithms leverage proactive fault-tolerance techniques to deal with systems failures, allied with virtual machine technology to share nodes resources in an accurately and controlled manner. The results indicate that our algorithms perform better targeting power-efficiency and SLA fulfillment, in face of cloud infrastructure failures.

Educational in a global environment: non-formal examples of learning practices at the international office

23rd SPACE AGM and Conference from 9 to 12 May 2012 Conference theme: The Role of Professional Higher Education: Responsibility and Reflection Venue: Mikkeli University of Applied Sciences, Mikkeli, Finland

Ensemble: an e-learning framework

E-Learning frameworks are conceptual tools to organize networks of elearning services. Most frameworks cover areas that go beyond the scope of e-learning, from course to financial management, and neglects the typical activities in everyday life of teachers and students at schools such as the creation, delivery, resolution and evaluation of assignments. This paper presents the Ensemble framework - an e-learning framework exclusively focused on the teaching-learning process through the coordination of pedagogical services. The framework presents an abstract data, integration and evaluation model based on content and communications specifications. These specifications must base the implementation of networks in specialized domains with complex evaluations. In this paper we specialize the framework for two domains with complex evaluation: computer programming and computer-aided design (CAD). For each domain we highlight two Ensemble hotspots: data and evaluations procedures. In the former we formally describe the exercise and present possible extensions. In the latter, we describe the automatic evaluation procedures.

Orchestration of e-learning services for automatic evaluation of programming exercises

Managing programming exercises require several heterogeneous systems such as evaluation engines, learning objects repositories and exercise resolution environments. The coordination of networks of such disparate systems is rather complex. These tools would be too specific to incorporate in an e-Learning platform. Even if they could be provided as pluggable components, the burden of maintaining them would be prohibitive to institutions with few courses in those domains. This work presents a standard based approach for the coordination of a network of e-Learning systems participating on the automatic evaluation of programming exercises. The proposed approach uses a pivot component to orchestrate the interaction among all the systems using communication standards. This approach was validated through its effective use on classroom and we present some preliminary results.

QoS-based surrogates selection and service proposal formulation in offloading environments

Resource constraints are becoming a problem as many of the wireless mobile devices have increased generality. Our work tries to address this growing demand on resources and performance, by proposing the dynamic selection of neighbor nodes for cooperative service execution. This selection is in uenced by user's quality of service requirements expressed in his request, tailoring provided service to user's speci c needs. In this paper we improve our proposal's formulation algorithm with the ability to trade o time for the quality of the solution. At any given time, a complete solution for service execution exists, and the quality of that solution is expected to improve overtime.

From task scheduling in single processor environments to message scheduling in a PROFIBUS fieldbus network

In this paper we survey the most relevant results for the prioritybased schedulability analysis of real-time tasks, both for the fixed and dynamic priority assignment schemes. We give emphasis to the worst-case response time analysis in non-preemptive contexts, which is fundamental for the communication schedulability analysis. We define an architecture to support priority-based scheduling of messages at the application process level of a specific fieldbus communication network, the PROFIBUS. The proposed architecture improves the worst-case messages’ response time, overcoming the limitation of the first-come-first-served (FCFS) PROFIBUS queue implementations.