Point-occurrence self-similarity in crackling-noise systems and in other complex systems

It has been recently found that a number of systems displaying crackling noise also show a remarkable behavior regarding the temporal occurrence of successive events versus their size: a scaling law for the probability distributions of waiting times as a function of a minimum size is fulfilled, signaling the existence on those systems of self-similarity in time-size. This property is also present in some non-crackling systems. Here, the uncommon character of the scaling law is illustrated with simple marked renewal processes, built by definition with no correlations. Whereas processes with a finite mean waiting time do not fulfill a scaling law in general and tend towards a Poisson process in the limit of very high sizes, processes without a finite mean tend to another class of distributions, characterized by double power-law waiting-time densities. This is somehow reminiscent of the generalized central limit theorem. A model with short-range correlations is not able to escape from the attraction of those limit distributions. A discussion on open problems in the modeling of these properties is provided.

The Distribution Dynamics of Output Multipliers in Scotland 1998–2007

In an input-output context the impact of any particular industrial sector is commonly measured in terms of the output multiplier for that industry. Although such measures are routinely calculated and often used to guide regional industrial policy the behaviour of such measures over time is an area that has attracted little academic study. The output multipliers derived from any one table will have a distribution; for some industries the multiplier will be relatively high, for some it will be relatively low. The recentpublication of consistent input-output tables for the Scottish economy makes it possible to examine trends in this mdistribution over the ten year period 1998-2007. This is done by comparing the means and other summary measures of the distributions, the histograms and the cumulative densities. The results indicate a tendency for the multipliers to increase over the period. A Markov chain modelling approach suggests that this drift is a slow but long term phenomenon which appears not to tend to an equilibrium state. The prime reason for the increase in the output multipliers is traced to a decline in the relative importance of imported (both from the rest of the UK and the rest of the world) intermediate inputs used by Scottish industries. This suggests that models calibrated on the set of tables might have to be interpreted with caution.

Nylon wool column: a tool for obtaining monokine-rich eluates in the absence of serum

Diverse conditions for stimulating human mononuclear cells to release thymocyte costimulatory factors were tested for their contribution to the generation of supernatants high titers of these monokines. Activity titers increased with LPS concentration, reaching a plateau between 1 and 10 microng/ml. Indomethacin did not modify the monokine, but the assay for thymocyte costimulatory activity was substantially affected by inhibitory substances produced by the monocytes in the absence of indomethacin. The use of nylon wool columns to trap the cells was shown to be effective in raising cellular densities without decreasing activity titers. As result, the yield per cell could be maintained even in the absence of serum, an important step toward the goal of purifiying bioactive from crude broths.

Observations on the distribution of anophelines in Suriname with particular reference to the malaria vector Anopheles darlingi

A study was made on the distribution of anophelines in Suriname with special emphasis on the principal malaria vector Anopheles darlingi and on the occurrence of other possible vector species. Peridomestic human bait collections of adult mosquitoes and collections of larvae were made in many localities with a recent history of malaria transmission. Stable population of An. darlingi were only found in the interior, south of the limit of tidal influence, due to year-round availability of breeding habitats in quietly sunlit places in flooded forest areas and along river banks. In the area with tidal movement of the rivers, breeding is limited to flooded areas in the west season. Anopheles darlingi was only incidentally collected in low densities. In the interior, malaria transmission occurred in all places where An. darlingi was found. The absence of malaria transmission along the Upper Suriname River could be explained by the absence of An. darlingi. In the malaria endemic areas, An darlingi was the most numerous mosquito biting on man. In the tidal region, malaria outbreak are infrequent and might be explained by the temporary availability of favourable beeding habitats for An. darlingi. However, evidence is insufficient to incriminate an. darlingi as the vector of malaria in this region and the possible vectorial role of other anophelines is discussed.

Quantile forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods are regularly used to deal with model uncertainty in regression models. This paper shows how to introduce Bayesian model averaging methods in quantile regressions, and allow for different predictors to affect different quantiles of the dependent variable. I show that quantile regression BMA methods can help reduce uncertainty regarding outcomes of future inflation by providing superior predictive densities compared to mean regression models with and without BMA.

Introduced freshwater blenny influences the diet and body condition of the invasive dice snake in Lake Geneva

Non-indigenous species can have strong impacts on biodiversity by affecting trophic relationships in their new environments. The piscivorous dice snake (Natrix tessellata) has been introduced to Geneva Lake, western Switzerland, where the endangered viperine snake (Natrix maura) is native. Local, dramatic declines in the viperine snake population might be associated with the appearance of the dice snake through dietary overlap between these 2 species, which mainly feed on bullhead (Cottus gobio). In response to this decline, a control program for dice snake was implemented in 2007 to reduce numbers of this introduced snake. In 2010, a new species of fish, the freshwater blenny (Salaria fluviatilis), which shares the same habitat as the bullhead, was introduced into Lake Geneva and has since reached high densities. We determined the impact of freshwater blenny on diet composition and body condition of dice snakes. In addition, we tested for effects of the control program on the body condition of dice snakes and viperine snakes. We collected 294 dice snakes between 2007 and 2013. Based on morphology and a genetic marker (cytochrome b gene), we determined the ®sh species contained in these snakes' stomachs. We found a drastic switch in dice snake diet following the arrival of freshwater blenny, as consumption of bullhead declined by 68% and was replaced by the blenny. In addition, the body condition of dice snakes increased significantly after the arrival of freshwater blenny. The body condition of both snake species was positively correlated with the number of dice snakes removed from the study area. This finding has important implications concerning the conservation of the endangered viperine snake, and suggests that the control program of dice snakes should be continued.

Household-based malaria control in a highly endemic area of Africa (Tanzania): determinants of transmission and disease and indicators for monitoring - Kilombero Malaria Project

The Kilombero Malaria Project (KMP) attemps to define opperationally useful indicators of levels of transmission and disease and health system relevant monitoring indicators to evaluate the impact of disease control at the community or health facility level. The KMP is longitudinal community based study (N = 1024) in rural Southern Tanzania, investigating risk factors for malarial morbidity and developing household based malaria control strategies. Biweekly morbidity and bimonthly serological, parasitological and drug consumption surveys are carried out in all study households. Mosquito densities are measured biweekly in 50 sentinel houses by timed light traps. Determinants of transmission and indicators of exposure were not strongly aggregated within households. Subjective morbidity (recalled fever), objective morbidity (elevated body temperature and high parasitaemia) and chloroquine consumption were strongly aggregated within a few households. Nested analysis of anti-NANP40 antibody suggest that only approximately 30% of the titer variance can explained by household clustering and that the largest proportion of antibody titer variability must be explained by non-measured behavioral determinants relating to an individual's level of exposure within a household. Indicators for evaluation and monitoring and outcome measures are described within the context of health service management to describe control measure output in terms of community effectiveness.

Is the thymus a target organ in infectious diseases?

The thymus is a central lymphoid organ, in wich T cell precursors differentiale and generate most of the so-called T cell reprtoire. Along with a variety of acute infectious diseases, we and others determined important changes in both microenvironmental and lymphoid compartments of the organ. For example, one major and common feature observed in acute viral, bacterial and parasitic diseases, is a depletion of cortical thymocytes, mostly those bearing the CD4-CD8 double positive phenotype. This occurs simmultaneously to the relative enrichment in medullary CD4 or CD8 single positive cells, expressing high densities of the CD3 complex. Additionally we noticed a variety of changes in the thymic microenvironment (and particularly is epithelial component), comprising abnormal location of thymic epithelial cell subsets as well has a denser Ia-bearing cellular network. Moreover, the extracellular matrix network was altered with an intralobular increase of basement membrane proteins that positively correlated with the degree of thymocyte death. Lastly, anti-thymic cell antibodies were detected in both human and animal models of infectious diseases, and in some of them a phenomenon of molecular mimicry could be evidenced. Taken together, the data receiwed herein clearly show that the thymus should be regarded as a target in infectious diseases.

A novel cyanide-inducible gene cluster helps protect Pseudomonas aeruginosa from cyanide

Pseudomonas aeruginosa produces the toxic secondary metabolite hydrogen cyanide (HCN) at high cell population densities and low aeration. Here, we investigated the impact of HCN as a signal in cell-cell communication by comparing the transcriptome of the wild-type strain PAO1 to that of an HCN-negative mutant under cyanogenic conditions. HCN repressed four genes and induced 12 genes. While the individual functions of these genes are unknown, with one exception (i.e. a ferredoxin-dependent reductase), a highly inducible six-gene cluster (PA4129-PA4134) was found to be crucial for protection of P.aeruginosa from external HCN intoxication. A double mutant deleted for PA4129-PA4134 and cioAB (encoding cyanide-insensitive oxidase) did not grow with 100M KCN, whereas the corresponding single mutants were essentially unaffected, suggesting a synergistic action of the PA4129-PA4134 gene products and cyanide-insensitive oxidase.

Factors conditioning the habitat and the density of Biomphalaria tenagophila (Orbigny, 1835) in an isolated schistosomiasis focus in Rio de Janeiro city

The present work was carried out in a watercress garden in Alto da Boa Vista, in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The investigation was carried out in two phases. The first one (1985-86) involved the sampling of Biomphalaria tenegophila in two areas to determine its relative populational densities. The results showed that the populations presented similar densities and dynamics. The second phase (1988-89) involved the study of the influence of some environmental factors on the establishment of B. tenagophila in watercress garden. Two factors were identified as responsible for the establishment of B. tenagophila in the garden: (1) the quality of the water entering the irrigation system, to which domestic sewage is added, and (2) alterations in the nature of the substrate, due to inadequate fertilization techniques, which employ organic matter from adjacent pigsties. Aquatic plants and hydrological parameters of the irrigation system were subsidiary factors to the establishment of B. tenagophila in the garden.

Factors influencing predation of the Waterbugs Sphaerodema annulatum (Fab.) and S. rusticum (Fab.) on the Disease Transmitting Snail Lymnaea (Radix) luteola (Lamarck)

Variations in the rate of predation of the waterbugs Sphaerodema annulatum and S. rusticum on the snails Lymnaea (Radix) luteola have been noted in respect to the morphs of the waterbugs, size of the prey individuals, densities of prey and predators, temperature and surface area of the waterbody concerned and the seasons. Consumption rate was highest (7.2 and 2.2 individuals per day per individual of S. annulatum and S. rusticum, respectively) in prereproductive ages of the waterbugs. This was followed by a gradual decline with the increase in age of the predators. The consumption rate was gradually higher with the increase of temperature from 20 °C to 35 °C. The bugs failed to survive beyond 35 days at 35 °C. Though the bugs prey upon the snails of all sizes preference for 6.5 ÷ 4.5 mm to 8 ÷ 5 mm individuals by S. annulatum and for 5 ÷ 3 mm to 6.5 ÷ 4.5 mm individuals belonged to 3 ÷ 2 - 4 ÷ 3 mm size group maximum when supplied separately. The rate of predation gradually declined with the rise of predator's desity irrespective of waterbug species. Predation rate increased with increasing prey density. This was level off when the prey snails were 1100 and 700 in number for S. annulatum and S. rusticum respectively. An adult S. annulatum and S. rusticum consumed 5.04, 3.7, 1.43 and 3.36, 2.49, 1.04 snails per day respectively in summer, monsoon and winter.

Trypanosoma cruzi infection in the opossum Didelphis marsupialis: absence of neonatal transmission and protection by maternal antibodies in experimental infections

The high rate of natural Trypanosoma cruzi infection found in opossums does not always correlate with appreciable densities of local triatomid populations. One alternative method which might bypass the invertebrate vector is direct transmission from mother to offspring. This possibility was investigated in five T. cruzi infected females and their litters (24 young). The influence of maternal antibodies transferred via lactation, on the course of experimental infection, was also examined. Our results show that neonatal transmission is probably not responsible for the high rate of natural T. cruzi infection among opossums. In addition antibodies of maternal origin confer a partial protection to the young. This was demonstrated by the finding of a double prepatency period and 4,5 fold lower levels of circulating parasites, in experimentally infected pouch young from infected as compared to control uninfected mothes. On the other hand, the duration of patent parasitemia was twice as long as that observed in the control group.

Social personality trait and fitness.

Several recent studies have explored various aspects of animal personality and their ecological consequences. However, the processes responsible for the maintenance of personality variability within a population are still largely unknown. We have recently demonstrated that social personality traits exist in the common lizard (Lacerta vivipara) and that the variation in sociability provides an explanation for variable dispersal responses within a given species. However, we need to know the fitness consequences of variation in sociability across environmental contexts in order to better understand the maintenance of such variation. In order to achieve this, we investigated the relationship between sociability and survival, body growth and fecundity, in one-year-old individuals in semi-natural populations with varying density. 'Asocial' and 'social' lizards displayed different fitness outcomes in populations of different densities. Asocial lizards survived better in low-density populations, while social females reproduced better. Spatiotemporal variation in environmental conditions might thus be the process underlying the maintenance of these personality traits within a population. Finally, we also discuss the position of sociability in a more general individual behavioural pattern including boldness, exploration and aggressiveness.

Implementation of IPM programs on European greenhouse tomato production areas: Tools and constraints

Whiteflies and whitefly-transmitted viruses are some of the major constraints on European tomato production. The main objectives of this study were to: identify where and why whiteflies are a major limitation on tomato crops; collect information about whiteflies and associated viruses; determine the available management tools; and identify key knowledge gaps and research priorities. This study was conducted within the framework of ENDURE (European Network for Durable Exploitation of Crop Protection Strategies). Two whitefly species are the main pests of tomato in Europe: Bemisia tabaci and Trialeurodes vaporariorum. Trialeurodes vaporariorum is widespread to all areas where greenhouse industry is present, and B. tabaci has invaded, since the early 1990’s, all the subtropical and tropical areas. Biotypes B and Q of B. tabaci are widespread and especially problematic. Other key tomato pests are Aculops lycopersici, Helicoverpa armigera, Frankliniella occidentalis, and leaf miners. Tomato crops are particularly susceptible to viruses causingTomato yellow leaf curl disease (TYLCD). High incidences of this disease are associated to high pressure of its vector, B. tabaci. The ranked importance of B. tabaci established in this study correlates with the levels of insecticide use, showing B. tabaci as one of the principal drivers behind chemical control. Confirmed cases of resistance to almost all insecticides have been reported. Integrated Pest Management based on biological control (IPM-BC) is applied in all the surveyed regions and identified as the strategy using fewer insecticides. Other IPM components include greenhouse netting and TYLCD-tolerant tomato cultivars. Sampling techniques differ between regions, where decisions are generally based upon whitefly densities and do not relate to control strategies or growing cycles. For population monitoring and control, whitefly species are always identified. In Europe IPM-BC is the recommended strategy for a sustainable tomato production. The IPM-BC approach is mainly based on inoculative releases of the parasitoids Eretmocerus mundus and Encarsia formosa and/or the polyphagous predators Macrolophus caliginosus and Nesidiocoris tenuis. However, some limitations for a wider implementation have been identified: lack of biological solutions for some pests, costs of beneficials, low farmer confidence, costs of technical advice, and low pest injury thresholds. Research priorities to promote and improve IPM-BC are proposed on the following domains: (i) emergence and invasion of new whitefly-transmitted viruses; (ii) relevance of B. tabaci biotypes regarding insecticide resistance; (iii) biochemistry and genetics of plant resistance; (iv) economic thresholds and sampling techniques of whiteflies for decision making; and (v) conservation and management of native whitefly natural enemies and improvement of biological control of other tomato pests.

Integrated control measures against Culex quinquefasciatus, the vector of filariasis in Recife

Integrated control measures against Culex quinquefasciastus have been implemented in a pilot urban area in Recife, Brazil. About 3,000 breeding sites found within the operational area were responsible for very high mosquito densities recorded during the pretrial period. Physical control measures have been applied to cess pits before starting a series of 37 treatments of the other sites with Bacillus sphaericus strain 2362, over 27 months. In spite of the difficulties due to environmental conditions, very significant reductions in preimaginal population of C. quinquefasciatus were achieved and, as a consequence, low adult mosquito densities were maintained for a relatively long period of time. Entomological and environmental data gathered in this pilot project can contribute to design an integrated mosquito control program in Recife city.