The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management

Although ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are increasingly promoted as the scientific state-of-the-art for operational flood forecasting, the communication, perception, and use of the resulting alerts have received much less attention. Using a variety of qualitative research methods, including direct user feedback at training workshops, participant observation during site visits to 25 forecasting centres across Europe, and in-depth interviews with 69 forecasters, civil protection officials, and policy makers involved in operational flood risk management in 17 European countries, this article discusses the perception, communication, and use of European Flood Alert System (EFAS) alerts in operational flood management. In particular, this article describes how the design of EFAS alerts has evolved in response to user feedback and desires for a hydrographic-like way of visualizing EFAS outputs. It also documents a variety of forecaster perceptions about the value and skill of EFAS forecasts and the best way of using them to inform operational decision making. EFAS flood alerts were generally welcomed by flood forecasters as a sort of ‘pre-alert’ to spur greater internal vigilance. In most cases, however, they did not lead, by themselves, to further preparatory action or to earlier warnings to the public or emergency services. Their hesitancy to act in response to medium-term, probabilistic alerts highlights some wider institutional obstacles to the hopes in the research community that EPS will be readily embraced by operational forecasters and lead to immediate improvements in flood incident management. The EFAS experience offers lessons for other hydrological services seeking to implement EPS operationally for flood forecasting and warning. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication

The aim of this article is to improve the communication of the probabilistic flood forecasts generated by hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) by understanding perceptions of different methods of visualizing probabilistic forecast information. This study focuses on interexpert communication and accounts for differences in visualization requirements based on the information content necessary for individual users. The perceptions of the expert group addressed in this study are important because they are the designers and primary users of existing HEPS. Nevertheless, they have sometimes resisted the release of uncertainty information to the general public because of doubts about whether it can be successfully communicated in ways that would be readily understood to nonexperts. In this article, we explore the strengths and weaknesses of existing HEPS visualization methods and thereby formulate some wider recommendations about the best practice for HEPS visualization and communication. We suggest that specific training on probabilistic forecasting would foster use of probabilistic forecasts with a wider range of applications. The result of a case study exercise showed that there is no overarching agreement between experts on how to display probabilistic forecasts and what they consider the essential information that should accompany plots and diagrams. In this article, we propose a list of minimum properties that, if consistently displayed with probabilistic forecasts, would make the products more easily understandable. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Climate and more sustainable cities: climate information for improved planning and management of cities (producers/capabilities perspective)

In the last two decades substantial advances have been made in the understanding of the scientific basis of urban climates. These are reviewed here with attention to sustainability of cities, applications that use climate information, and scientific understanding in relation to measurements and modelling. Consideration is given from street (micro) scale to neighbourhood (local) to city and region (meso) scale. Those areas where improvements are needed in the next decade to ensure more sustainable cities are identified. High-priority recommendations are made in the following six strategic areas: observations, data, understanding, modelling, tools and education. These include the need for more operational urban measurement stations and networks; for an international data archive to aid translation of research findings into design tools, along with guidelines for different climate zones and land uses; to develop methods to analyse atmospheric data measured above complex urban surfaces; to improve short-range, high-resolution numerical prediction of weather, air quality and chemical dispersion through improved modelling of the biogeophysical features of the urban land surface; to improve education about urban meteorology; and to encourage communication across scientific disciplines at a range of spatial and temporal scales.

Resources, staff beliefs and organizational culture: factors in the use of information and communication technology for adults with intellectual disabilities

Background  Access to, and the use of, information and communication technology (ICT) is increasingly becoming a vital component of mainstream life. First-order (e.g. time and money) and second-order factors (e.g. beliefs of staff members) affect the use of ICT in different contexts. It is timely to investigate what these factors may be in the context of service provision for adults with intellectual disabilities given the role ICT could play in facilitating communication and access to information and opportunities as suggested in Valuing People. Method  Taking a qualitative approach, nine day service sites within one organization were visited over a period of 6 months to observe ICT-related practice and seek the views of staff members working with adults with intellectual disabilities. All day services were equipped with modern ICT equipment including computers, digital cameras, Internet connections and related peripherals. Results  Staff members reported time, training and budget as significant first-order factors. Organizational culture and beliefs about the suitability of technology for older or less able service users were the striking second-order factors mentioned. Despite similar levels of equipment, support and training, ICT use had developed in very different ways across sites. Conclusion  The provision of ICT equipment and training is not sufficient to ensure their use; the beliefs of staff members and organizational culture of sites play a substantial role in how ICT is used with and by service users. Activity theory provides a useful framework for considering how first- and second-order factors are related. Staff members need to be given clear information about the broader purpose of activities in day services, especially in relation to the lifelong learning agenda, in order to see the relevance and usefulness of ICT resources for all service users.

Interpreting communication of people with profound and severe learning difficulties

The present paper highlights some of the issues involved in interpreting the communication behaviours of people with profound and multiple learning difficulties (PMLDs). Both inference and intention can play an important role in the communication process, and this raises a number of difficulties and dangers where one of the communication partners is not in a position to correct misunderstandings. The present authors discuss the importance of validating communication and pose a number of key questions to ask those who are most significant in the life of a person with PMLDs. A case study is provided that illustrates a number of these issues.

Before transparency: control and communication in Early-Modern Europe

Today, transparency is hailed as a key to good governance and economic efficiency, with national states implementing new laws to allow citizens access to information. It is therefore paradoxical that, as shown by a series of crises and scandals, modern governments and international agencies frequently have paid only lip-service to such ideals. Since Jeremy Bentham first introduced the concept of transparency into the language in 1789, few societal debates have sparked so much interest within the academic community, and across a variety of disciplines, using different approaches and methodologies. Within these current debates, however, one fact is striking: the lack of historical reflection about the development of the concept of transparency, both as a principle and as applied in practice, prior to its inception. Accordingly, the aim of this special issue is to contribute to historicising the ways in which communication and control over fiscal policy and state finances operated in early modern European polities.

Transcriptome analysis of nicotine-exposed cells from the brainstem of neonate spontaneously hypertensive and Wistar Kyoto rats

In this study, the effects of nicotine on global gene expression of cultured cells from the brainstem of spontaneously hypertensive rat (SHR) and normotensive Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rats were evaluated using whole-genome oligoarrays. We found that nicotine may act differentially on the gene expression profiles of SHR and WKY. The influence of strain was present in 321 genes that were differentially expressed in SHR as compared with WKY brainstem cells independently of the nicotine treatment. A total of 146 genes had their expression altered in both strains after nicotine exposure. Interaction between nicotine treatment and the strain was observed to affect the expression of 229 genes that participate in cellular pathways related to neurotransmitter secretion, intracellular trafficking and cell communication, and are possibly involved in the phenotypic differentiation between SHR and WKY rats, including hypertension. Further characterization of their function in hypertension development is warranted. The Pharmacogenomics Journal (2010) 10, 134-160; doi:10.1038/tpj.2009.42; published online 15 September 2009

Building a Learning Architecture : e-Learning and e-Services

With the rapid advancement of the webtechnology, more and more educationalresources, including software applications forteaching/learning methods, are available acrossthe web, which enables learners to access thelearning materials and use various ways oflearning at any time and any place. Moreover,various web-based teaching/learning approacheshave been developed during the last decade toenhance the capability of both educators andlearners. Particularly, researchers from bothcomputer science and education are workingtogether, collaboratively focusing ondevelopment of pedagogically enablingtechnologies which are believed to improve theinfrastructure of education systems andprocesses, including curriculum developmentmodels, teaching/learning methods, managementof educational resources, systematic organizationof communication and dissemination ofknowledge and skills required by and adapted tousers. Despite of its fast development, however,there are still great gaps between learningintentions, organization of supporting resources,management of educational structures,knowledge points to be learned and interknowledgepoint relationships such as prerequisites,assessment of learning outcomes, andtechnical and pedagogic approaches. Moreconcretely, the issues have been widelyaddressed in literature include a) availability andusefulness of resources, b) smooth integration ofvarious resources and their presentation, c)learners’ requirements and supposed learningoutcomes, d) automation of learning process interms of its schedule and interaction, and e)customization of the resources and agilemanagement of the learning services for deliveryas well as necessary human interferences.Considering these problems and bearing in mindthe advanced web technology of which weshould make full use, in this report we willaddress the following two aspects of systematicarchitecture of learning/teaching systems: 1)learning objects – a semantic description andorganization of learning resources using the webservice models and methods, and 2) learningservices discovery and learning goals match foreducational coordination and learning serviceplanning.

Role of Culture in the Acquisition of CSL – From the Perspective of Intercultural Communication Competence

In the past few decades, the demands for coping with the rapid development of information communication technology, internationalization and globalization worldwide have shifted the focus of Chinese as a second language (CSL) towards intercultural communication competence in which the role of culture in the acquisition of CSL and in the pragmatic use of the language is emphasized and promoted. However, most of the present research in this academic area still remains only on a theoretical level.   In order to explore the possibilities and limitations of integrating Chinese culture and implementing intercultural communication theory into CSL education, an action research has been conducted since the beginning of 2013 to review an actual course for beginners. This paper will present the findings of the research: 1) By applying the theoretical framework of intercultural communicative competence, the findings indicated that the existing CSL course provided limited information explaining the cultural elements that are reflected in the Chinese language. 2) The findings also suggested that the cultural skills acquired in the students’ first language do influence their acquisition of CSL. This is demonstrated in the students’ written tasks such as introducing themselves and presenting other people, etc. The findings can be examples and resources for further research in this academic field.     

Humming as a mean of communicating during meal time situations : A Single Case study involving a women with severe dementia and her caregiver

Objective: ‘Music Therapeutic Caregiving’, when caregivers sing for or together with persons with dementia during morning care situations, has been shown to increase verbal and nonverbal communication between persons with dementia and their caregivers, as well as enhance positive and decrease negative emotions in persons with dementia. No studies about singing during mealtimes have been conducted, and this pilot project was designed to elucidate this. However, since previous studies have shown that there is a risk that persons with dementia will start to sing along with the caregiver, the caregiver in this study hummed such that the person with dementia did not sing instead of eat. The aim of this pilot project was threefold: to describe expressed emotions in a woman with severe dementia, and describe communication between her and her caregivers without and with the caregiver humming. The aim was also to measure food and liquid intake without and with humming. Method: The study was constructed as a Single Case ABA design in which the ordinary mealtime constituted a baseline which comprised a woman with severe dementia being fed by her caregivers in the usual way. The intervention included the same woman being fed by the same caregiver who hummed while feeding her. Data comprised video observations that were collected once per week over 5 consecutive weeks. The Verbal and Nonverbal Interaction Scale and Observed Emotion Rating Scale were used to analyze the recorded interactions. Results: A slightly positive influence of communication was shown for the woman with dementia, as well as for the caregiver. Further, the women with dementia showed a slight increase in expressions of positive emotions, and she ate more during the intervention. Conclusion: Based on this pilot study no general conclusions can be drawn. It can be concluded, however, that humming while feeding persons with dementia might slightly enhance communication, and positive expressed emotions in persons with dementia. To confirm this, more studies on group levels are needed. Because previous studies have found that caregiver singing during caring situations influences persons with dementia positively it might be desirable to test the same during mealtime.

Practices in social media in the travel education business

Praticas na midia social se refere a vista ou a percepcao de uma marca nao so com base em suas ofertas e servicos, mas tambem sobre seus valores e cultura como percebido principalmente pelos consumidores. As organizacoes podem utilizer a imagem que é interessante e aceitavel para os clients. Nos ultimos anos, uma das formas que as organizacoes de forma consistente comercializar ou publicitar a sua marca envolve midias sociais. O ojetivo deste estudo é explorer quais sao as praticas de midia social no negocio de educacao de viagens. Para obter os dados, a pesquisadora entrevistou pessoas de seis empresas de educacao de viagens e cotejadas informacoes sobre o tema a partir de fonts primarias e secundarias existentes. O pesquisador conduziu a pesquisa para determiner praticas de marketing de midia social em que se aplicam nos sectores do turismo e educacao. Com base nos dados obtidos pelo pesquisador, as praticas de marketing de midia social incluem a utilizacao de plataformas de midia social com um alcance internacional generalizada tipo Facebook, Twitter, Instagram e YouTube. Outra estratégia é para postar constantemente as atualizações que não são apenas interessante, mas também informativo sobre os produtos e serviços oferecidos por uma marca ou organização. As empresas ou organizações devem também interagir com os clientes ou clientes on-line, a fim de manter os interesses deste último em ofertas e serviços da ex. O envolvimento do cliente é uma das razões por que os clientes optam por seguir as empresas on-line através da mídia social. A pesquisa também revela outras vantagens e benefícios da mídia social que constituem as melhores práticas, tais como a conversão de não-clientes para os clientes, o aumento da presença da mídia para aumentar a popularidade, a comunicação eficaz das metas e objetivos organizacionais, bem como a formação de um bom relacionamento com os clientes. As organizações também podem usar turístico criado conteúdo (TCC) e outros tipos de conteúdo para orientar a tomada de decisão no desenvolvimento do produto gerado pelo usuário.