Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Staged surgical therapy of basal cell carcinoma of the head and neck region: an evaluation of 500 procedures

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY / PRINCIPLES: The surgical therapy of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is especially demanding in the facial area. This retrospective study was undertaken to evaluate the outcome of staged surgical therapy (SST) of BCC of the head and neck region performed on an interdisciplinary basis at our institution. METHODS: Patients treated for BCC in the head and neck area between 1/1/1997 and 31/12/2001 were included in the study. The lesions were histologically evaluated. Diameter of lesion, number of stages, defect coverage, operation time, and recurrence and infection rates were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistical procedures. RESULTS: 281 patients were included in the study. SST was performed in two stages in 43.7%, in three stages in 12.9% and in four or more stages in 2.7%, depending on the type of tumour and the patient's pretreatment status. The total operating time per lesion averaged one hour. Defect coverage was achieved by direct closure (37.7%), by full thickness skin graft (39.5%), by split skin graft (1.1%), by local flaps (20.3%) or by composite grafts (1.1%). Median follow-up time was 58.5 months. Low rates of recurrence (3.6%) and infection (2%) were observed with this technique. CONCLUSIONS: The staged surgical therapy of basal cell carcinoma evaluated here offers a series of advantages in respect of patient comfort and safety and economy, while allowing precise histological safety with low infection rates and reliable long-term results.

Statistical analysis of personal radiofrequency electromagnetic field measurements with nondetects

Exposimeters are increasingly applied in bioelectromagnetic research to determine personal radiofrequency electromagnetic field (RF-EMF) exposure. The main advantages of exposimeter measurements are their convenient handling for study participants and the large amount of personal exposure data, which can be obtained for several RF-EMF sources. However, the large proportion of measurements below the detection limit is a challenge for data analysis. With the robust ROS (regression on order statistics) method, summary statistics can be calculated by fitting an assumed distribution to the observed data. We used a preliminary sample of 109 weekly exposimeter measurements from the QUALIFEX study to compare summary statistics computed by robust ROS with a naïve approach, where values below the detection limit were replaced by the value of the detection limit. For the total RF-EMF exposure, differences between the naïve approach and the robust ROS were moderate for the 90th percentile and the arithmetic mean. However, exposure contributions from minor RF-EMF sources were considerably overestimated with the naïve approach. This results in an underestimation of the exposure range in the population, which may bias the evaluation of potential exposure-response associations. We conclude from our analyses that summary statistics of exposimeter data calculated by robust ROS are more reliable and more informative than estimates based on a naïve approach. Nevertheless, estimates of source-specific medians or even lower percentiles depend on the assumed data distribution and should be considered with caution.

IDENTIFICATION OF GENES CONTROLLING BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES AND PATHWAYS THROUGH STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND NETWORK RECONSTRUCTION

The developmental processes and functions of an organism are controlled by the genes and the proteins that are derived from these genes. The identification of key genes and the reconstruction of gene networks can provide a model to help us understand the regulatory mechanisms for the initiation and progression of biological processes or functional abnormalities (e.g. diseases) in living organisms. In this dissertation, I have developed statistical methods to identify the genes and transcription factors (TFs) involved in biological processes, constructed their regulatory networks, and also evaluated some existing association methods to find robust methods for coexpression analyses. Two kinds of data sets were used for this work: genotype data and gene expression microarray data. On the basis of these data sets, this dissertation has two major parts, together forming six chapters. The first part deals with developing association methods for rare variants using genotype data (chapter 4 and 5). The second part deals with developing and/or evaluating statistical methods to identify genes and TFs involved in biological processes, and construction of their regulatory networks using gene expression data (chapter 2, 3, and 6). For the first part, I have developed two methods to find the groupwise association of rare variants with given diseases or traits. The first method is based on kernel machine learning and can be applied to both quantitative as well as qualitative traits. Simulation results showed that the proposed method has improved power over the existing weighted sum method (WS) in most settings. The second method uses multiple phenotypes to select a few top significant genes. It then finds the association of each gene with each phenotype while controlling the population stratification by adjusting the data for ancestry using principal components. This method was applied to GAW 17 data and was able to find several disease risk genes. For the second part, I have worked on three problems. First problem involved evaluation of eight gene association methods. A very comprehensive comparison of these methods with further analysis clearly demonstrates the distinct and common performance of these eight gene association methods. For the second problem, an algorithm named the bottom-up graphical Gaussian model was developed to identify the TFs that regulate pathway genes and reconstruct their hierarchical regulatory networks. This algorithm has produced very significant results and it is the first report to produce such hierarchical networks for these pathways. The third problem dealt with developing another algorithm called the top-down graphical Gaussian model that identifies the network governed by a specific TF. The network produced by the algorithm is proven to be of very high accuracy.

Evaluation of 15 mandibular reconstructions with Dumbach Titan Mesh-System and particulate cancellous bone and marrow harvested from bilateral posterior ilia

This study reports on 15 mandibular reconstructions using the Dumbach Titan Mesh-System and particulate cancellous bone and marrow harvested from bilateral posterior ilia. All cases showed segmental defects. Eleven cases involved patients with malignant tumor. Six patients had received irradiation of 40-50 Gy. Reconstructions were performed immediately in 1 patient and secondarily in the remaining 14 patients. In 13 cases, mandibles were successfully reconstructed. Of these 13 patients, 9 reconstructions were completed without complications, whereas the other 4 cases showed complications. In 2 cases, reconstruction failed completely. Overall success rate was 87%. Statistical analysis revealed the extent of mandibular defect, but not malignancy of the original disease or radiotherapy of

Evaluation of the transforming growth factor beta1 codon 25 (Arg-->Pro) polymorphism in alcoholic liver disease

INTRODUCTION: Liver cirrhosis develops only in a minority of heavy drinkers. Genetic factors may account for some variation in the progression of fibrosis in alcoholic liver disease (ALD). Transforming growth factor beta 1 (TGFbeta1) is a key profibrogenic cytokine in fibrosis and its gene contains several polymorphic sites. A single nucleotide polymorphism at codon 25 has been suggested to affect fibrosis progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection, fatty liver disease, and hereditary hemochromatosis. Its contribution to the progression of ALD has not been investigated sufficiently so far. PATIENTS AND METHODS: One-hundred-and-fifty-one heavy drinkers without apparent ALD, 149 individuals with alcoholic cirrhosis, and 220 alcoholic cirrhotics who underwent liver transplantation (LTX) were genotyped for TGFbeta1 codon 25 variants. RESULTS: Univariate analysis suggested that genotypes Arg/Pro or Pro/Pro are associated with decompensated liver cirrhosis requiring LTX. However, after adjusting for patients' age these genotypes did not confer a significant risk for cirrhosis requiring LTX. CONCLUSION: TGFbeta1 codon 25 genotypes Arg/Pro or Pro/Pro are not associated with alcoholic liver cirrhosis. Our study emphasizes the need for adequate statistical methods and accurate study design when evaluating the contribution of genetic variants to the course of chronic liver diseases.

Quantitative T2 mapping during follow-up after matrix-associated autologous chondrocyte transplantation (MACT): full-thickness and zonal evaluation to visualize the maturation of cartilage repair tissue

The purpose of this article was to evaluate the potential of in vivo zonal T2-mapping as a noninvasive tool in the longitudinal visualization of cartilage repair tissue maturation after matrix-associated autologous chondrocyte transplantation (MACT). Fifteen patients were treated with MACT and evaluated cross-sectionally, with a baseline MRI at a follow-up of 19.7 +/- 12.1 months after cartilage transplantation surgery of the knee. In the same 15 patients, 12 months later (31.7 +/- 12.0 months after surgery), a longitudinal 1-year follow-up MRI was obtained. MRI was performed on a 3 Tesla MR scanner; morphological evaluation was performed using a double-echo steady-state sequence; T2 maps were calculated from a multiecho, spin-echo sequence. Quantitative mean (full-thickness) and zonal (deep and superficial) T2 values were calculated in the cartilage repair area and in control cartilage sites. A statistical analysis of variance was performed. Full-tickness T2 values showed no significant difference between sites of healthy cartilage and cartilage repair tissue (p < 0.05). Using zonal T2 evaluation, healthy cartilage showed a significant increase from the deep to superficial cartilage layers (p < 0.05). Cartilage repair tissue after MACT showed no significant zonal increase from deep to superficial cartilage areas during baseline MRI (p > 0.05); however, during the 1-year follow-up, a significant zonal stratification could be observed (p < 0.05). Morphological evaluation showed no significant difference between the baseline and the 1-year follow-up MRI. T2 mapping seems to be more sensitive in revealing changes in the repair tissue compared to morphological MRI. In vivo zonal T2 assessment may be sensitive enough to characterize the maturation of cartilage repair tissue.

T1(Gd) gives comparable information as Delta T1 relaxation rate in dGEMRIC evaluation of cartilage repair tissue

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the relationship between T1 after intravenous contrast administration (T1Gd) and Delta relaxation rate (DeltaR1) = (1/T1(Gd) - 1/T1o) in the delayed Gadolinium-Enhanced MRI of cartilage (dGEMRIC) evaluation of cartilage repair tissue. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty single MR examinations from 30 patients after matrix-associated autologous chondrocyte transplantations of the knee joint with different postoperative intervals were examined using an 8-channel knee-coil at 3T. T1 mapping using a 3D GRE sequence with a 35/10 degrees flip angle excitation pulse combination was performed before and after contrast administration (dGEMRIC technique). T1 postcontrast (T1(Gd)) and the DeltaR1 (relative index of pre- and postcontrast R1 value) were calculated for repair tissue and the weight-bearing normal appearing control cartilage. For evaluation of the different postoperative intervals, MR exams were subdivided into 3 groups (up to 12 months, 12-24 months, more than 24 months). For statistical analysis Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated. RESULTS: The mean value for T1 postcontrast was 427 +/- 159 ms, for DeltaR1 1.85 +/- 1.0; in reference cartilage 636 +/- 181 ms for T1 postcontrast and 0.83 +/- 0.5 for DeltaR1.The correlation coefficients were highly significant between T1 (Gd) and DeltaR1 for repair tissue (0.969) as well as normal reference cartilage (0.928) in total, and for the reparative cartilage in the early, middle postoperative, and late postoperative interval after surgery (R values: -0.986, -0.970, and -0.978, respectively). Using either T1(Gd) or DeltaR1, the 2 metrics resulted in similar conclusions regarding the time course of change of repair tissue and control tissue, namely that highly significant (P > 0.01) differences between cartilage repair tissue and reference cartilage were found for all follow-up groups. Additionally, for both metrics highly significant differences (P < 0.01) between early follow up and the 2 later postoperative groups for cartilage repair tissue were found. No statistical differences were found between the 2 later follow-up groups of reparative cartilage either for T1 (Gd) or DeltaR1. CONCLUSION: The high correlation between T1 (Gd) and DeltaR1 and the comparable conclusions reached utilizing metric implies that T1 mapping before intravenous administration of MR contrast agent is not necessary for the evaluation of repair tissue. This will help to reduce costs, inconvenience for the patients, simplifies the examination procedure, and makes dGEMRIC more attractive for follow-up of patients after cartilage repair surgeries.

No surgical innovation without evaluation: the IDEAL recommendations

Surgery and other invasive therapies are complex interventions, the assessment of which is challenged by factors that depend on operator, team, and setting, such as learning curves, quality variations, and perception of equipoise. We propose recommendations for the assessment of surgery based on a five-stage description of the surgical development process. We also encourage the widespread use of prospective databases and registries. Reports of new techniques should be registered as a professional duty, anonymously if necessary when outcomes are adverse. Case series studies should be replaced by prospective development studies for early technical modifications and by prospective research databases for later pre-trial evaluation. Protocols for these studies should be registered publicly. Statistical process control techniques can be useful in both early and late assessment. Randomised trials should be used whenever possible to investigate efficacy, but adequate pre-trial data are essential to allow power calculations, clarify the definition and indications of the intervention, and develop quality measures. Difficulties in doing randomised clinical trials should be addressed by measures to evaluate learning curves and alleviate equipoise problems. Alternative prospective designs, such as interrupted time series studies, should be used when randomised trials are not feasible. Established procedures should be monitored with prospective databases to analyse outcome variations and to identify late and rare events. Achievement of improved design, conduct, and reporting of surgical research will need concerted action by editors, funders of health care and research, regulatory bodies, and professional societies.

Coping resources in a sample of chronic low back pain patients: Evaluation of the questionnaire for back pain

BACKGROUND The coping resources questionnaire for back pain (FBR) uses 12 items to measure the perceived helpfulness of different coping resources (CRs, social emotional support, practical help, knowledge, movement and relaxation, leisure and pleasure, spirituality and cognitive strategies). The aim of the study was to evaluate the instrument in a clinical patient sample assessed in a primary care setting. SAMPLE AND METHODS The study was a secondary evaluation of empirical data from a large cohort study in general practices. The 58 participating primary care practices recruited patients who reported chronic back pain in the consultation. Besides the FBR and a pain sketch, the patients completed scales measuring depression, anxiety, resilience, sociodemographic factors and pain characteristics. To allow computing of retested parameters the FBR was sent to some of the original participants again after 6 months (90% response rate). We calculated consistency and retest reliability coefficients as well as correlations between the FBR subscales and depression, anxiety and resilience scores to account for validity. By means of a cluster analysis groups with different resource profiles were formed. Results. RESULTS For the study 609 complete FBR baseline data sets could be used for statistical analysis. The internal consistency scores ranged fromα=0.58 to α=0.78 and retest reliability scores were between rTT=0.41 and rTT=0.63. Correlation with depression, fear and resilience ranged from r=-0.38 to r=0.42. The cluster analysis resulted in four groups with relatively homogenous intragroup profiles (high CRs, low spirituality, medium CRs, low CRs). The four groups differed significantly in fear and depression (the more inefficient the resources the higher the difference) as well as in resilience (the more inefficient the lower the difference). The group with low CRs also reported permanent pain with no relief. The groups did not otherwise differ. CONCLUSIONS The FBR is an economic instrument that is suitable for practical use e.g. in primary care practices to identify strengths and deficits in the CRs of chronic pain patients that can then be specified in face to face consultation. However, due to the rather low reliability, the use of subscales for profile differentiation and follow-up measurement in individual diagnoses is limited.

Evaluation of colon cancer histomorphology: a comparison between formalin and PAXgene tissue fixation by an international ring trial.

The aim of our study was to evaluate the quality of histo- and cytomorphological features of PAXgene-fixed specimens and their suitability for histomorphological classification in comparison to standard formalin fixation. Fifteen colon cancer tissues were collected, divided into two mirrored samples and either formalin fixed (FFPE) or PAXgene fixed (PFPE) before paraffin embedding. HE- and PAS-stained sections were scanned and evaluated in a blinded, randomised ring trial by 20 pathologists from Europe and the USA using virtual microscopy. The pathologists evaluated histological grading, histological subtype, presence of adenoma, presence of lymphovascular invasion, quality of histomorphology and quality of nuclear features. Statistical analysis revealed that the reproducibility with regard to grading between both fixation methods was rather satisfactory (weighted kappa statistic (k w) = 0.73 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.41-0.94)), with a higher agreement between the reference evaluation and the PFPE samples (k w = 0.86 (95 % CI, 0.67-1.00)). Independent from preservation method, inter-observer reproducibility was not completely satisfactory (k w = 0.60). Histomorphological quality parameters were scored equal or better for PFPE than for FFPE samples. For example, overall quality and nuclear features, especially the detection of mitosis, were judged significantly better for PFPE cases. By contrast, significant retraction artefacts were observed more frequently in PFPE samples. In conclusion, our findings suggest that the PAXgene Tissue System leads to excellent preservation of histomorphology and nuclear features of colon cancer tissue and allows routine morphological diagnosis.

Reliability of operational data from pig herds and performance ratings by veterinarians and pig farmers collected during telephone interviews for the evaluation of a PCV2 piglet vaccination

BackgroundThe aim of the present study was to evaluate the feasibility of using a telephone survey in gaining an understanding of the possible herd and management factors influencing the performance (i.e. safety and efficacy) of a vaccine against porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) in a large number of herds and to estimate customers¿ satisfaction.ResultsDatasets from 227 pig herds that currently applied or have applied a PCV2 vaccine were analysed. Since 1-, 2- and 3-site production systems were surveyed, the herds were allocated in one of two subsets, where only applicable variables out of 180 were analysed. Group 1 was comprised of herds with sows, suckling pigs and nursery pigs, whereas herds in Group 2 in all cases kept fattening pigs. Overall 14 variables evaluating the subjective satisfaction with one particular PCV2 vaccine were comingled to an abstract dependent variable for further models, which was characterized by a binary outcome from a cluster analysis: good/excellent satisfaction (green cluster) and moderate satisfaction (red cluster). The other 166 variables comprised information about diagnostics, vaccination, housing, management, were considered as independent variables. In Group 1, herds using the vaccine due to recognised PCV2 related health problems (wasting, mortality or porcine dermatitis and nephropathy syndrome) had a 2.4-fold increased chance (1/OR) of belonging to the green cluster. In the final model for Group 1, the diagnosis of diseases other than PCV2, the reason for vaccine administration being other than PCV2-associated diseases and using a single injection of iron had significant influence on allocating into the green cluster (P¿<¿0.05). In Group 2, only unchanged time or delay of time of vaccination influenced the satisfaction (P¿<¿0.05).ConclusionThe methodology and statistical approach used in this study were feasible to scientifically assess ¿satisfaction¿, and to determine factors influencing farmers¿ and vets¿ opinion about the safety and efficacy of a new vaccine.

Can 3D ultrasound identify trochlea dysplasia in newborns? Evaluation and applicability of a technique.

Femoro-patellar dysplasia is considered as a significant risk factor of patellar instability. Different studies suggest that the shape of the trochlea is already developed in early childhood. Therefore early identification of a dysplastic configuration might be relevant information for the treating physician. An easy applicable routine screening of the trochlea is yet not available. The purpose of this study was to establish and evaluate a screening method for femoro-patellar dysplasia using 3D ultrasound. From 2012 to 2013 we prospectively imaged 160 consecutive femoro-patellar joints in 80 newborns from the 36th to 61st gestational week that underwent a routine hip sonography (Graf). All ultrasounds were performed by a pediatric radiologist with only minimal additional time to the routine hip ultrasound. In 30° flexion of the knee, axial, coronal, and sagittal reformats were used to standardize a reconstructed axial plane through the femoral condyle and the mid-patella. The sulcus angle, the lateral-to-medial facet ratio of the trochlea and the shape of the patella (Wiberg Classification) were evaluated. In all examinations reconstruction of the standardized axial plane was achieved, the mean trochlea angle was 149.1° (SD 4.9°), the lateral-to-medial facet ratio of the trochlea ratio was 1.3 (SD 0.22), and a Wiberg type I patella was found in 95% of the newborn. No statistical difference was detected between boys and girls. Using standardized reconstructions of the axial plane allows measurements to be made with lower operator dependency and higher accuracy in a short time. Therefore 3D ultrasound is an easy applicable and powerful tool to identify trochlea dysplasia in newborns and might be used for screening for trochlea dysplasia.

The new final Clinical Skills examination in human medicine in Switzerland: Essential steps of exam development, implementation and evaluation, and central insights from the perspective of the national Working Group

Objective: Since 2011, the new national final examination in human medicine has been implemented in Switzerland, with a structured clinical-practical part in the OSCE format. From the perspective of the national Working Group, the current article describes the essential steps in the development, implementation and evaluation of the Federal Licensing Examination Clinical Skills (FLE CS) as well as the applied quality assurance measures. Finally, central insights gained from the last years are presented. Methods: Based on the principles of action research, the FLE CS is in a constant state of further development. On the foundation of systematically documented experiences from previous years, in the Working Group, unresolved questions are discussed and resulting solution approaches are substantiated (planning), implemented in the examination (implementation) and subsequently evaluated (reflection). The presented results are the product of this iterative procedure. Results: The FLE CS is created by experts from all faculties and subject areas in a multistage process. The examination is administered in German and French on a decentralised basis and consists of twelve interdisciplinary stations per candidate. As important quality assurance measures, the national Review Board (content validation) and the meetings of the standardised patient trainers (standardisation) have proven worthwhile. The statistical analyses show good measurement reliability and support the construct validity of the examination. Among the central insights of the past years, it has been established that the consistent implementation of the principles of action research contributes to the successful further development of the examination. Conclusion: The centrally coordinated, collaborative-iterative process, incorporating experts from all faculties, makes a fundamental contribution to the quality of the FLE CS. The processes and insights presented here can be useful for others planning a similar undertaking. Keywords: national final examination, licensing examination, summative assessment, OSCE, action research

Biomechanical evaluation of different angle-stable locking plate systems for mandibular surgery

PURPOSE To compare the initial stability and stability after fatigue of three different locking systems (Synthes(®), Stryker(®) and Medartis(®)) for mandibular fixation and reconstruction. METHOD Standard mandible locking plates with identical profile height (1,5 mm), comparable length and screws with identical diameter (2,0 mm) were used. Plates were fixed with six screws according a preparation protocol. Four point bending tests were then performed using artificial bone material to compare their initial stability and failure limit under realistic loading conditions. Loading of the plates was performed using of a servo hydraulic driven testing machine. The stiffness of the implant/bone construct was calculated using a linear regression on the experimental data included in a range of applied moment between 2 Nm and 6 Nm. RESULTS No statistical difference in the elastic stiffness was visible between the three types of plate. However, differences were observed between the systems concerning the maximal load supported. The Stryker and Synthes systems were able to support a significantly higher moment. CONCLUSION For clinical application all systems show good and reliable results. Practical aspects such as handling, possible angulation of screw fixation, possibility of screw/plate removal, etc. may favour one or the other plating system.