Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Differential top-antitop cross-section measurements as a function of observables constructed from final-state particles using pp collisions at s√=7 TeV in the ATLAS detector

Various differential cross-sections are measured in top-quark pair (tt¯) events produced in proton--proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of s√=7 TeV at the LHC with the ATLAS detector. These differential cross-sections are presented in a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb−1. The differential cross-sections are presented in terms of kinematic variables of a top-quark proxy referred to as the pseudo-top-quark whose dependence on theoretical models is minimal. The pseudo-top-quark can be defined in terms of either reconstructed detector objects or stable particles in an analogous way. The measurements are performed on tt¯ events in the lepton+jets channel, requiring exactly one charged lepton and at least four jets with at least two of them tagged as originating from a b-quark. The hadronic and leptonic pseudo-top-quarks are defined via the leptonic or hadronic decay mode of the W boson produced by the top-quark decay in events with a single charged lepton.The cross-section is measured as a function of the transverse momentum and rapidity of both the hadronic and leptonic pseudo-top-quark as well as the transverse momentum, rapidity and invariant mass of the pseudo-top-quark pair system. The measurements are corrected for detector effects and are presented within a kinematic range that closely matches the detector acceptance. Differential cross-section measurements of the pseudo-top-quark variables are compared with several Monte Carlo models that implement next-to-leading order or leading-order multi-leg matrix-element calculations.

Measurement of the tt¯ production cross-section as a function of jet multiplicity and jet transverse momentum in 7 TeV proton--proton collisions with the ATLAS detector

The tt¯ production cross-section dependence on jet multiplicity and jet transverse momentum is reported for proton--proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV in the single-lepton channel. The data were collected with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider and comprise the full 2011 data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb−1. Differential cross-sections are presented as a function of the jet multiplicity for up to eight jets using jet transverse momentum thresholds of 25, 40, 60, and 80 GeV, and as a function of jet transverse momentum up to the fifth jet. The results are shown after background subtraction and corrections for all detector effects, within a kinematic range closely matched to the experimental acceptance. Several QCD-based Monte Carlo models are compared with the results. Sensitivity to the parton shower modelling is found at the higher jet multiplicities, at high transverse momentum of the leading jet and in the transverse momentum spectrum of the fifth leading jet. The MC@NLO+HERWIG MC is found to predict too few events at higher jet multiplicities.

Nonparametric estimation of the survival function for ordered multivariate failure time data: a comparative study

In longitudinal studies of disease, patients may experience several events through a follow-up period. In these studies, the sequentially ordered events are often of interest and lead to problems that have received much attention recently. Issues of interest include the estimation of bivariate survival, marginal distributions and the conditional distribution of gap times. In this work we consider the estimation of the survival function conditional to a previous event. Different nonparametric approaches will be considered for estimating these quantities, all based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. We explore the finite sample behavior of the estimators through simulations. The different methods proposed in this article are applied to a data set from a German Breast Cancer Study. The methods are used to obtain predictors for the conditional survival probabilities as well as to study the influence of recurrence in overall survival.

Strategies to regulate myopia progression with contact lenses: a review

Purpose: Higher myopic refractive errors are associated with serious ocular complications that can put visual function at risk. There is respective interest in slowing and if possible stopping myopia progression before it reaches a level associated with increased risk of secondary pathology. The purpose of this report was to review our understanding of the rationale(s) and success of contact lenses (CLs) used to reduce myopia progression. Methods: A review commenced by searching the PubMed database. The inclusion criteria stipulated publications of clinical trials evaluating the efficacy of CLs in regulating myopia progression based on the primary endpoint of changes in axial length measurements and published in peerreviewed journals. Other publications from conference proceedings or patents were exceptionally considered when no peer-review articles were available. Results: The mechanisms that presently support myopia regulation with CLs are based on the change of relative peripheral defocus and changing the foveal image quality signal to potentially interfere with the accommodative system. Ten clinical trials addressing myopia regulation with CLs were reviewed, including corneal refractive therapy (orthokeratology), peripheral gradient lenses, and bifocal (dual-focus) and multifocal lenses. Conclusions: CLs were reported to be well accepted, consistent, and safe methods to address myopia regulation in children. Corneal refractive therapy (orthokeratology) is so far the method with the largest demonstrated efficacy in myopia regulation across different ethnic groups. However, factors such as patient convenience, the degree of initial myopia, and non-CL treatments may also be considered. The combination of different strategies (i.e., central defocus, peripheral defocus, spectral filters, pharmaceutical delivery, and active lens-borne illumination) in a single device will present further testable hypotheses exploring how different mechanisms can reinforce or compete with each other to improve or reduce myopia regulation with CLs.

Single-function approach to calibrating whatman n.º 42 filter paper based on suction versus water content relationships

Several suction–water-content (s-w) calibrations for the filter paper method (FPM) used for soil-suction measurement have been published. Most of the calibrations involve a bilinear function (i.e., two different equations) with an inflection point occurring at 60 kPa

Litterfall production in intact and selectively logged forests in southern of Amazonia as a function of basal area of vegetation and plant density

Nutrient recycling in the forest is linked to the production and decomposition of litter, which are essential processes for forest maintenance, especially in regions of nutritionally poor soils. Human interventions in forest such as selecttive logging may have strong impacts on these processes. The objectives of this study were to estimate litterfall production and evaluate the influence of environmental factors (basal area of vegetation, plant density, canopy cover, and soil physicochemical properties) and anthropogenic factors (post-management age and exploited basal area) on this production, in areas of intact and exploited forest in southern Amazonia, located in the northern parts of Mato Grosso state. This study was conducted at five locations and the average annual production of litterfall was 10.6 Mg ha-1 year-1, higher than the values for the Amazon rainforest. There were differences in litterfall productions between study locations. Effects of historical logging intensity on litterfall production were not significant. Effects of basal area of vegetation and tree density on litterfall production were observed, highlighting the importance of local vegetation characteristics in litterfall production. This study demonstrated areas of transition between the Amazonia-Cerrado tend to have a higher litterfall production than Cerrado and Amazonia regions, and this information is important for a better understanding of the dynamics of nutrient and carbon cycling in these transition regions.

Exploring the role of O-Mannosylation in the modulation of E-Cadherin function in Gastric Cancer cell line models

Dissertação de mestrado em Bioquímica Aplicada – Biomedicina

Composition and structure variation for magnetron sputtered tantalum oxynitride thin films, as function of deposition parameters

Tantalum oxynitride thin films were produced by magnetron sputtering. The films were deposited usinga pure Ta target and a working atmosphere with a constant N2/O2ratio. The choice of this constant ratiolimits the study concerning the influence of each reactive gas, but allows a deeper understanding of theaspects related to the affinity of Ta to the non-metallic elements and it is economically advantageous.This work begins by analysing the data obtained directly from the film deposition stage, followed bythe analysis of the morphology, composition and structure. For a better understanding regarding theinfluence of the deposition parameters, the analyses are presented by using the following criterion: thefilms were divided into two sets, one of them produced with grounded substrate holder and the otherwith a polarization of −50 V. Each one of these sets was produced with different partial pressure of thereactive gases P(N2+ O2). All the films exhibited a O/N ratio higher than the N/O ratio in the depositionchamber atmosphere. In the case of the films produced with grounded substrate holder, a strong increaseof the O content is observed, associated to the strong decrease of the N content, when P(N2+ O2) is higherthan 0.13 Pa. The higher Ta affinity for O strongly influences the structural evolution of the films. Grazingincidence X-ray diffraction showed that the lower partial pressure films were crystalline, while X-rayreflectivity studies found out that the density of the films depended on the deposition conditions: thehigher the gas pressure, the lower the density. Firstly, a dominant -Ta structure is observed, for lowP(N2+ O2); secondly a fcc-Ta(N,O) structure, for intermediate P(N2+ O2); thirdly, the films are amorphousfor the highest partial pressures. The comparison of the characteristics of both sets of produced TaNxOyfilms are explained, with detail, in the text.

Goblet cell density association with tear function and ocular surface physiology

Purpose: To determine the relationship of goblet cell density (GCD) with tear function and ocular surface physiology. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study conducted in 35 asymptomatic subjects with mean age 23.8±3.6 years. Tear film assessment, conjunctiva and cornea examination were done in each subject. Conjunctival impression cytology was performed by applying Nitrocellulose Millipore MFTM-Membrane filter over the superior bulbar conjunctiva. The filter paper was than fixed with 96% ethanol and stained with Periodic Acid Schiff, Hematoxylin and Eosin. GCD was determined by optical microscopy. Relation between GCD and Schirmer score, tear break-up time (TBUT), bulbar redness, limbal redness and corneal staining was determined. Results: The mean GCD was 151±122 cells/mm2. GCD was found higher in eyes with higher Schirmer score but it was not significant (p = 0.75). There was a significant relationship ofGCDwith TBUT (p = 0.042). GCD was not correlated with bulbar redness (p = 0.126), and limbal redness (p = 0.054) as well as corneal staining (p = 0.079). No relationship of GCD with age and gender of the subjects (p > 0.05) was observed. Conclusion: GCD was found correlated with TBUT but no significant correlation was found with the aqueous portion of the tear, limbal as well as bulbar redness and corneal staining.

Influence of emphysema distribution on pulmonary function parameters in COPD patients

Objective: To evaluate the impact that the distribution of emphysema has on clinical and functional severity in patients with COPD. Methods: The distribution of the emphysema was analyzed in COPD patients, who were classified according to a 5-point visual classification system of lung CT findings. We assessed the influence of emphysema distribution type on the clinical and functional presentation of COPD. We also evaluated hypoxemia after the six-minute walk test (6MWT) and determined the six-minute walk distance (6MWD). Results: Eighty-six patients were included. The mean age was 65.2 ± 12.2 years, 91.9% were male, and all but one were smokers (mean smoking history, 62.7 ± 38.4 pack-years). The emphysema distribution was categorized as obviously upper lung-predominant (type 1), in 36.0% of the patients; slightly upper lung-predominant (type 2), in 25.6%; homogeneous between the upper and lower lung (type 3), in 16.3%; and slightly lower lung-predominant (type 4), in 22.1%. Type 2 emphysema distribution was associated with lower FEV1 , FVC, FEV1 /FVC ratio, and DLCO. In comparison with the type 1 patients, the type 4 patients were more likely to have an FEV1 < 65% of the predicted value (OR = 6.91, 95% CI: 1.43-33.45; p = 0.016), a 6MWD < 350 m (OR = 6.36, 95% CI: 1.26-32.18; p = 0.025), and post-6MWT hypoxemia (OR = 32.66, 95% CI: 3.26-326.84; p = 0.003). The type 3 patients had a higher RV/TLC ratio, although the difference was not significant. Conclusions: The severity of COPD appears to be greater in type 4 patients, and type 3 patients tend to have greater hyperinflation. The distribution of emphysema could have a major impact on functional parameters and should be considered in the evaluation of COPD patients.

The role of IFNγ in higher brain function: in health and under chronic stress

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Saúde

Effects of protein-calorie restriction on mechanical function of hypertrophied cardiac muscle

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of food restriction (FR) on hypertrophied cardiac muscle in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR). METHODS: Isolated papillary muscle preparations of the left ventricle (LV) of 60-day-old SHR and of normotensive Wistar-Kyoto (WKY) rats were studied. The rats were fed either an unrestricted diet or FR diet (50% of the intake of the control diet) for 30 days. The mechanical function of the muscles was evaluated through monitoring isometric and isotonic contractions. RESULTS: FR caused: 1) reduction in the body weight and LV weight of SHR and WKY rats; 2) increase in the time to peak shortening and the time to peak developed tension (DT) in the hypertrophied myocardium of the SHR; 3) diverging changes in the mechanical function of the normal cardiac muscles of WKY rats with reduction in maximum velocity of isotonic shortening and of the time for DT to decrease 50% of its maximum value, and increase of the resting tension and of the rate of tension decline. CONCLUSION: Short-term FR causes prolongation of the contraction time of hypertrophied muscles and paradoxal changes in mechanical performance of normal cardiac fibers, with worsening of the shortening indices and of the resting tension, and improvement of the isometric relaxation.

Aortic stenosis. Gender influence on left ventricular geometry and function in patients under 70 years of age

OBJECTIVE: To verify if adaptive left ventricle (LV) characteristics are also present in individuals under 70 years of age with severe aortic stenosis (AS). METHODS: The study comprised 40 consecutive patients under 70 years of age with AS and no associated coronary artery disease, referred for valve surgery. Out of the 40 patients, 22 were men and 18 women, and the mean age was 49.8±14.3 years. Cardiac symptoms, presence of systemic hypertension (SH), functional class according to the New York Heart Association (NYHA), and valve lesion etiology were considered. LV cavity dimensions, ejection fraction (EF), fractional shortening (FS), mass (MS), and relative diastolic thickness (RDT) were examined by Doppler echocardiography. RESULTS: Fourteen (63.6%) men and 11 (61.6%) women were classified as NYHA class III/IV (p=0.70). There was no difference in the frequency of angina, syncope or dyspnea between genders. The incidence of SH was greater in women than in men (10 versus 2, p=0.0044). Women had a smaller LV end-diastolic diameter index (32.1±6.5 x 36.5±5.3mm/m², p=0.027), LV end-systolic diameter index (19.9±5.9 x 26.5±6.4mm/m², p=0.0022) and LV mass index (MS) (211.4±71.1 x 270.9±74.9g/m², p=0.017) when compared with men. EF (66.2±13.4 x 52.0±14.6%, p=0.0032), FS (37.6±10.7 x 27.9±9.6%, p=0.0046) and RDT (0.58±0.22 x 0.44±0.09, p=0.0095) were significantly greater in women than in men. CONCLUSION: It is the patient gender rather than age that influences left ventricular adaptive response to AS.

Contribution of Doppler echocardiography to the evaluation of systolic and diastolic function of obese women versus a control group

OBJECTIVE: To study by doppler echocardiography the cardiac systolic and diastolic functions of health, uncomplicated obese subjects. METHODS: Fifty-nine obese women with an average body mass index (BMI) of 35 kg/m² were evaluated and compared with 19 subjects with an average BMI of 23 kg/m² (control group). RESULTS: In the obese group, a clear tendency was observed toward higher systolic pressure, increased wall thickness and, consequently, myocardial mass, elevation on the circumference stress of the left ventricular wall, and an indisputable presence of diastolic abnormalities. Filling abnormalities were observed with impaired relaxation, with prolonged isovolumic relaxation time (IVRT) and augmented atrium contribution representing early indexes of cardiac dysfunction when systolic performance is still normal. CONCLUSION: Obesity is generally a chronic condition, and doppler echocardiography can be used as a noninvasive instrument for early evaluation of left ventricular diastolic indexes.