Expectation Propagation with Factorizing Distributions: A Gaussian Approximation and Performance Results for Simple Models

We discuss the expectation propagation (EP) algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference using a factorizing posterior approximation. For neural network models, we use a central limit theorem argument to make EP tractable when the number of parameters is large. For two types of models, we show that EP can achieve optimal generalization performance when data are drawn from a simple distribution.

Drinfeld twists and symmetric Bethe vectors of supersymmetric fermion models

We construct the Drinfeld twists ( factorizing F-matrices) of the gl(m-n)-invariant fermion model. Completely symmetric representation of the pseudo-particle creation operators of the model are obtained in the basis provided by the F-matrix ( the F-basis). We resolve the hierarchy of the nested Bethe vectors in the F-basis for the gl(m-n) supersymmetric model.

Book review of: Choice, Behavioural Economics and Addiction Ruby Vuchinich & Nick Heather, eds

The body of work contained in Choice, Behavioural Economics and Addiction is the result of a conference held at the University of Alabama in Birmingham, 2002. The purpose of the conference was to bring together highly accredited international authors in the field of addiction research pertaining to behavioural choice theories. The conference provided a forum where these theories and their empirical implications could be discussed and debated. This book represents the conference proceedings and as such is a combination of journal articles that each relevant author has published plus additional comments from allocated reviewers.

Effects of immunosuppressants on hepatocyte cell mitosis during liver regeneration in growing animal models of partial hepatectomy

Objective. We sought to evaluate the effects of immunosuppressant drugs (corticosteroid, cyclosporine [CsA], and tacrolimus [Tac]) on liver regeneration in growing animals submitted to 70% hepatectomy. Materials and Methods. Newborn and weaning rats were submitted to 70% hepatectomy receiving separately methylprednisolone, CsA, or Tac. All animals were sacrificed 24 hours after the procedure. The remnant liver lobes were subjected to histomorphometric analyses with determination of hepatocyte mitotic index. Results., Administration of immunosuppressants did not change the mitotic index of the regenerating liver in newborn animals. In weaning rats, methylprednisolone reduced the mitotic index (P = .01) and Tac caused a greater increase in this rate (P = .001). CsA had no effect on mitotic index. The number of hepatocyte mitoses in newborn animal livers was greater than that in weaning animal livers (P = .001). Conclusion. In situations in which intense, fast processes of liver regeneration are crucial, the advantages of the use of Tac must be considered, such as in pediatric transplant patients.

The role of vaccines in the control of STDs: HPV vaccines

Prophylactic vaccines for genital human papillomavirus (HPV) infection have been shown to be feasible in animal models, and suitable vaccine material based on virus-like particles can be produced in bulk at reasonable cost. Initiation of phase III clinical trials will follow definition of trial outcome measures through further epidemiological studies, and development-of assays of host protective immunity. Vaccines could in principle eliminate HPV-related disease, as the human race is the only natural host for the relevant papillomaviruses (PVs). Therapeutic vaccines for genital HPV infection are also possible, but have not yet been demonstrated as feasible in practice because the choice of vaccine antigens is difficult, the method of their optimal delivery is uncertain, and the nature of the relevant antiviral immunity is unknown. PV species specificity will require trials to be conducted in man, which will slow definition of an ideal vaccine.

The role of physiological understanding in plant breeding; From a breeding perspective

The role of physiological understanding in improving the efficiency of breeding programs is examined largely from the perspective of conventional breeding programs. Impact of physiological research to date on breeding programs, and the nature of that research, was assessed from (i) responses to a questionnaire distributed to plant breeders and physiologists, and (ii) a survey of literature abstracts. Ways to better utilise physiological understanding for improving breeding programs are suggested, together with possible constraints to delivering beneficial outcomes. Responses from the questionnaire indicated a general view that the contribution by crop physiology to date has been modest. However, most of those surveyed expected the contribution to be larger in the next 20 years. Some constraints to progress perceived by breeders and physiologists were highlighted. The survey of literature abstracts indicated that from a plant breeding perspective, much physiological research is not progressing further than making suggestions about possible approaches to selection. There was limited evidence in the literature of objective comparison of such suggestions with existing methodology, or of development and application of these within active breeding programs. It is argued in this paper that the development of outputs from physiological research for breeding requires a good understanding of the breeding program(s) being serviced and factors affecting its performance. Simple quantitative genetic models, or at least the ideas they represent, should be considered in conducting physiological research and in envisaging and evaluating outputs. The key steps of a generalised breeding program are outlined, and the potential pathways for physiological understanding to impact on these steps are discussed. Impact on breeding programs may arise through (i) better choice of environments in which to conduct selection trials, (ii) identification of selection criteria and traits for focused introgression programs, and (iii) identifying traits for indirect selection criteria as an adjunct to criteria already used. While many breeders and physiologists apparently recognise that physiological understanding may have a major role in the first area, there appears to be relatively Little research activity targeting this issue, and a corresponding bias, arguably unjustified, toward examining traits for indirect selection. Furthermore, research on traits aimed at crop improvement is often deficient because key genetic parameters, such as genetic variation in relevant breeding populations and genetic (as opposed to phenotypic) correlations with yield or other characters of economic importance, are not properly considered in the research. Some areas requiring special attention for successfully interfacing physiology research with breeding are discussed. These include (i) the need to work with relevant genetic populations, (ii) close integration of the physiological research with an active breeding program, and (iii) the dangers of a pre-defined or narrow focus in the physiological research.

Analysis of dynamic process models for structural insight and model reduction .1. Structural identification measures

An important consideration in the development of mathematical models for dynamic simulation, is the identification of the appropriate mathematical structure. By building models with an efficient structure which is devoid of redundancy, it is possible to create simple, accurate and functional models. This leads not only to efficient simulation, but to a deeper understanding of the important dynamic relationships within the process. In this paper, a method is proposed for systematic model development for startup and shutdown simulation which is based on the identification of the essential process structure. The key tool in this analysis is the method of nonlinear perturbations for structural identification and model reduction. Starting from a detailed mathematical process description both singular and regular structural perturbations are detected. These techniques are then used to give insight into the system structure and where appropriate to eliminate superfluous model equations or reduce them to other forms. This process retains the ability to interpret the reduced order model in terms of the physico-chemical phenomena. Using this model reduction technique it is possible to attribute observable dynamics to particular unit operations within the process. This relationship then highlights the unit operations which must be accurately modelled in order to develop a robust plant model. The technique generates detailed insight into the dynamic structure of the models providing a basis for system re-design and dynamic analysis. The technique is illustrated on the modelling for an evaporator startup. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Analysis of dynamic models for structural insight and model reduction .2. A multi-stage compressor shutdown case-study

In this second paper, the three structural measures which have been developed are used in the modelling of a three stage centrifugal synthesis gas compressor. The goal of this case study is to determine the essential mathematical structure which must be incorporated into the compressor model to accurately model the shutdown of this system. A simple, accurate and functional model of the system is created via three structural measures. It was found that the model can be correctly reduced into its basic modes and that the order of the differential system can be reduced from 51(st) to 20(th). Of the 31 differential equational 21 reduce to algebraic relations, 8 become constants and 2 can be deleted thereby increasing the algebraic set from 70 to 91 equations. An interpretation is also obtained as to which physical phenomena are dominating the dynamics of the compressor add whether the compressor will enter surge during the shutdown. Comparisons of the reduced model performance against the full model are given, showing the accuracy and applicability of the approach. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Extrahepatic portal vein thrombosis after umbilical catheterization: is it a good choice for Rex shunt?

Background: Extrahepatic portal vein thrombosis (EHPVT) is an important cause of portal hypertension in children. Rex shunt has been used successfully to treat these patients. Methods: We report our experience in 19 infants and children (5 months to 14 years) with HPVT eligible for a mesenteric-portal surgical shunt with left internal jugular vein autograft. Eight children had idiopathic EHPVT, nine had post-umbilical catheterization EHPVT, one had portal vein agenesis, and one had posttransplant EHPVT. Results: It was possible to perform the Rex shunt in all patients except for 8 of 9 cases in the post-umbilical catheterization EHPVT group. A Warren procedure was performed in 4 of those patients and a proximal splenorenal shunt in 1. Current follow-up ranges from 3 to 26 months. Shunt thrombosis occurred in one patient with portal vein agenesis and associated cardiac anomaly. Portal hypertension has significantly improved after surgery. None of our patients have experienced new bleeding episodes until now. Conclusions: The Rex shunt should be considered in the treatment of children with idiopathic EHPVT experiencing repeated gastrointestinal bleeding episodes refractory to endoscopic treatment. Nevertheless, the role of this operation for children with post-umbilical catheterization EHPVT is yet to be clearly evaluated. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Discrete and continuous models for dry masonry columns

The dynamic response of dry masonry columns can be approximated with finite-difference equations. Continuum models follow by replacing the difference quotients of the discrete model by corresponding differential expressions. The mathematically simplest of these models is a one-dimensional Cosserat theory. Within the presented homogenization context, the Cosserat theory is obtained by making ad hoc assumptions regarding the relative importance of certain terms in the differential expansions. The quality of approximation of the various theories is tested by comparison of the dispersion relations for bending waves with the dispersion relation of the discrete theory. All theories coincide with differences of less than 1% for wave-length-block-height (L/h) ratios bigger than 2 pi. The theory based on systematic differential approximation remains accurate up to L/h = 3 and then diverges rapidly. The Cosserat model becomes increasingly inaccurate for L/h < 2 pi. However, in contrast to the systematic approximation, the wave speed remains finite. In conclusion, considering its relative simplicity, the Cosserat model appears to be the natural starting point for the development of continuum models for blocky structures.

Applying linear time-varying constraints to econometric models: With an application to demand systems

When linear equality constraints are invariant through time they can be incorporated into estimation by restricted least squares. If, however, the constraints are time-varying, this standard methodology cannot be applied. In this paper we show how to incorporate linear time-varying constraints into the estimation of econometric models. The method involves the augmentation of the observation equation of a state-space model prior to estimation by the Kalman filter. Numerical optimisation routines are used for the estimation. A simple example drawn from demand analysis is used to illustrate the method and its application.

Models of alcohol use by young adults: An examination of various attitude-behavior theories

Objective: The aim of this study was to test the effectiveness of various attitude-behavior theories in explaining alcohol use among young adults. The theory of reasoned action (TRA), the theory of planned behavior and an extension of the TRA that incorporates past behavior were compared by the method of maximum-likelihood estimation, as implemented in LISREL for Windows 8.12. Method: Respondents consisted of 122 university students (82 female) who were questioned about their attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, past behavior and intentions relating to drinking behavior. Students received course credit for their participation in the research. Results: Overall, the results suggest that the extension of the theory of reasoned action which incorporates past behavior provides the best fit to the data. For these young adults, their intentions to drink alcohol were predicted by their past behavior as well as their perceptions of what important others think they should do (subjective norm). Conclusions: The main conclusions drawn from the research concern the importance of focusing on normative influences and past behavior in explaining young adult alcohol use. Issues regarding the relative merit of various alternative models and the need for greater clarity in the measure of attitudes are also discussed.