Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

Decision making in social neurobiological systems modeled as transitions in dynamic pattern formation

Extant models of decision making in social neurobiological systems have typically explained task dynamics as characterized by transitions between two attractors. In this paper, we model a three-attractor task exemplified in a team sport context. The model showed that an attacker–defender dyadic system can be described by the angle x between a vector connecting the participants and the try line. This variable was proposed as an order parameter of the system and could be dynamically expressed by integrating a potential function. Empirical evidence has revealed that this kind of system has three stable attractors, with a potential function of the form V(x)=−k1x+k2ax2/2−bx4/4+x6/6, where k1 and k2 are two control parameters. Random fluctuations were also observed in system behavior, modeled as white noise εt, leading to the motion equation dx/dt = −dV/dx+Q0.5εt, where Q is the noise variance. The model successfully mirrored the behavioral dynamics of agents in a social neurobiological system, exemplified by interactions of players in a team sport.

Functional MRI BOLD response to Tower of London performance of first-episode schizophrenia patients using cortical pattern matching

Due to its three-dimensional folding pattern, the human neocortex; poses a challenge for accurate co-registration of grouped functional; brain imaging data. The present study addressed this problem by; employing three-dimensional continuum-mechanical image-warping; techniques to derive average anatomical representations for coregistration; of functional magnetic resonance brain imaging data; obtained from 10 male first-episode schizophrenia patients and 10 age-matched; male healthy volunteers while they performed a version of the; Tower of London task. This novel technique produced an equivalent; representation of blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) response; across hemispheres, cortical regions, and groups, respectively, when; compared to intensity average co-registration, using a deformable; Brodmann area atlas as anatomical reference. Somewhat closer; association of Brodmann area boundaries with primary visual and; auditory areas was evident using the gyral pattern average model.; Statistically-thresholded BOLD cluster data confirmed predominantly; bilateral prefrontal and parietal, right frontal and dorsolateral; prefrontal, and left occipital activation in healthy subjects, while; patients’ hemispheric dominance pattern was diminished or reversed,; particularly decreasing cortical BOLD response with increasing task; difficulty in the right superior temporal gyrus. Reduced regional gray; matter thickness correlated with reduced left-hemispheric prefrontal/; frontal and bilateral parietal BOLD activation in patients. This is the; first study demonstrating that reduction of regional gray matter in; first-episode schizophrenia patients is associated with impaired brain; function when performing the Tower of London task, and supports; previous findings of impaired executive attention and working memory; in schizophrenia.

Arts education and iPads in the early years

This chapter takes as a working premise that digital culture is embedded in the every-day life experiences of most children living in post-industrial societies, both in home and, increasingly, in educational contexts. We outline how our research project investigated strategies for developing learning in the arts for young children by using the iPad as a creative device, rather than one on which they consume content in the form of games, on demand television and streaming video. We ask critical questions around creative ecologies and creative production; these grow from our observations on how young children and their families engaged with iPads through activities such as combining painting with digital photography. Analysis of work samples produced by children during the project enables interrogation of the ways in which young children can participate in arts practices and learning when digital media production is available. The chapter is structured around three themes of practice for iPad-based arts and creative education in preschool settings.

Drama, storymaking and iPads in the early years

In this chapter we consider how the iPad and selected applications such as Draw and Tell (Duck Duck Moose, 2013), Popplet (Notion Inc., 2013) and Puppet Pals (Polished Play LLC, 2013) can assist children in collaborative storying, retelling and sequencing story moments that can assist young children in their acquisition of oracy and their understanding of the world, both real and imagined, and their personal relationships. The data gathered from the project will also analysed through the lense of “critical and creative thinking” (ACARA, 2013, p.20-21) skills articulated as one of the general capabilities required in all subject areas of the Australian national curriculum, but which has particular application to The Arts subject areas. In this chapter, we consider artefacts created by preschool children using iPads and selected apps and interviews conducted with preschool children and their caregivers during our research project. We then offer examples of practice to assist preschool teachers in supporting children in their storymaking using the iPad and discuss approaches for engagement that twins the live and mediatised representation of a story.

Early years national curriculum documents : revisiting inclusive education

Early years education encompasses early childhood education and care (ECEC) and the early years of school across the age range birth to eight years. The introduction of two national curriculum documents for early years education – the Early Years Learning Framework (Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations DEEWR, 2009) for ECEC programs and the Australian Curriculum (Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority ACARA, 2011a) – indicates a trend towards national coherence, yet highlights a gap between notions of inclusion in the ECEC and school sectors of early years education. These gaps have the potential to impact negatively on school transition experiences through reductions in continuity of pedagogy and partnerships with families. Australian definitions of inclusion have moved beyond integration (i.e., mainstream classroom placement with support services and accommodations to address disability or lack of English), to encompass curricular and pedagogic differentiation catering for the participation rights and sense of belonging of children with a diverse range of abilities and backgrounds. This paper considers improved curriculum alignment and pedagogic continuity through enactment of elements relevant to inclusion.

Smart phones and tablets in the early years : a waste of time or a valuable opportunity for accessing information and communicating?

New digital media surrounds us. Little is known, however, about the influence of technology devices such as tablets (e.g. iPads) and smart phones on young children’s lives in home and school settings, and what it means for them throughout their schooling and beyond. Most research to date has focused on children aged six years and older, and much less (with a few exceptions) on preschool-aged children. This article draws on parent interviews to show how family members engage with technology as part of the flow of everyday life. Only time and increased understandings of everyday practices will tell the real values and scope of using digital media.

Napping, development and health from 0 to 5 years : a systematic review

Background Duration and quality of sleep affect child development and health. Encouragement of napping in preschool children has been suggested as a health-promoting strategy. Objectives The aim of this study is to assess evidence regarding the effects of napping on measures of child development and health. Design This study is a systematic review of published, original research articles of any design. Subjects Children aged 0–5 years. Method Electronic database search was performed following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines and assessment of research quality was carried out following a Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) protocol. Results Twenty-six articles met inclusion criteria. These were of heterogeneous quality; all had observational designs (GRADE-low). Development and health outcomes included salivary cortisol, night sleep, cognition, behaviour, obesity and accidents. The findings regarding cognition, behaviour and health impacts were inconsistent, probably because of variation in age and habitual napping status of the samples. The most consistent finding was an association between napping and later onset, shorter duration and poorer quality of night sleep, with evidence strongest beyond the age of 2 years. Limitations Studies were not randomised. Most did not obtain data on the children's habitual napping status or the context of napping. Many were reliant on parent report rather than direct observation or physiological measurement of sleep behaviour. Conclusions The evidence indicates that beyond the age of 2 years napping is associated with later night sleep onset and both reduced sleep quality and duration. The evidence regarding behaviour, health and cognition is less certain. There is a need for more systematic studies that use stronger designs. In preschool children presenting with sleep problems clinicians should investigate napping patterns.

Topical pattern based document modelling and relevance ranking

For traditional information filtering (IF) models, it is often assumed that the documents in one collection are only related to one topic. However, in reality users’ interests can be diverse and the documents in the collection often involve multiple topics. Topic modelling was proposed to generate statistical models to represent multiple topics in a collection of documents, but in a topic model, topics are represented by distributions over words which are limited to distinctively represent the semantics of topics. Patterns are always thought to be more discriminative than single terms and are able to reveal the inner relations between words. This paper proposes a novel information filtering model, Significant matched Pattern-based Topic Model (SPBTM). The SPBTM represents user information needs in terms of multiple topics and each topic is represented by patterns. More importantly, the patterns are organized into groups based on their statistical and taxonomic features, from which the more representative patterns, called Significant Matched Patterns, can be identified and used to estimate the document relevance. Experiments on benchmark data sets demonstrate that the SPBTM significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art models.

Starting with strengths : an Indigenous early years intervention

Aboriginal protocol usually links the right to tell a story with a declaration of involvement or connection to the story. I am Aboriginal . . . I am a woman, daughter, sister, aunty and wife. I am also a mother to three beautiful children aged 6, 4 and 2 years. To my children at this point in their lives, I am their provider, nurturer, teacher, cook, taxi driver, mediator, stylist, Elder, slave, and expert on all there is to know in the world. Being the centre of the universe to three impressionable young minds is a role that I cherish deeply, and I take the responsibilities of it very seriously. I love the job of parenting. As any parent would agree, it is the most challenging and difficult job of all, but the opportunity to bring a life into the world and shape and mould a little person into a big person brings rewards that no career can.

Literacy and Digital Culture in the Early Years

In this chapter we present data drawn from observations of kindergarten children using iPads and talk with the children, their parents/guardians and teachers. We identify a continuum of practices that extends from ‘educational apps’ teaching handwriting, sight words and so forth to uses of the iPad as a device for multimodal literacy development and substantive conversation around children’s creative work. At the current time high stakes testing and the implementation of the Australian Curriculum are prompting new public and professional conversations about literacy and digital technology. The iPad is construed as both cause of and solution to problems of traditional literacy education. In this context we describe the literacies enabled by educational software available on iPads. We higlight the time constraints which bore on teachers' capacity to enact their visions of literacy education through the iPad platform and suggest ways of reflecting on responses to this constraint.