Body fat changes among antiretroviral-naive patients on PI- and NNRTI-based HAART in the Swiss HIV cohort study

BACKGROUND: Body fat changes are common in patients with HIV. For patients on protease inhibitor (PI)-based highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), these changes have been associated with increasing exposure to therapy in general and to stavudine in particular. Our objective is to show whether such associations are more or less likely for patients on non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based HAART. METHODS: We included all antiretroviral-naive patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study starting HAART after April 2000 who had had body weight, CD4 cell count and plasma HIV RNA measured between 6 months before and 3 months after starting HAART, and at least one assessment of body fat changes after starting HAART. At visits scheduled every 6 months, fat loss or fat gain is reported by agreement between patient and physician. We estimate the association between reported body fat changes and both time on therapy and time on stavudine, using conditional logistical regression. RESULTS: Body fat changes were reported for 85 (9%) out of 925 patients at their first assessment; a further 165 had only one assessment. Of the remaining 675 patients, body fat changes were reported for 156 patients at a rate of 13.2 changes per 100 patient-years. Body fat changes are more likely with increasing age [odds ratio (OR) 1.18 (1.00-1.38) per 10 years], with increasing BMI [OR 1.06 (1.01-1.11)] and in those with a lower baseline CD4 cell count [OR 0.91 (0.83-1.01) per 100 cells/microl]. There is only weak evidence that body fat changes are more likely with increasing time on HAART [OR 1.16 (0.93-1.46)]. After adjusting for time on HAART, fat loss is more likely with increasing stavudine use [OR 1.70 (1.34-2.15)]. There is no evidence of an association between reported fat changes and time on NNRTI therapy relative to PI therapy in those patients who used either one therapy or the other [OR 0.98 (0.56-1.63)]. CONCLUSION: Fat loss is more likely to be reported with increasing exposure to stavudine. We find no evidence of major differences between PI and NNRTI therapy in the risk of reported body fat changes.

The vascular ectonucleotidase CD39 is permissive for sinusoidal endothelial cell proliferation during liver regeneration: evidence for synergism between growth factors and extracellular nucleotides

Crosstalk between elements of the sinusoidal vasculature, platelets and hepatic parenchymal cells influences regenerative responses to liver injury and/or resection. Such paracrine interactions include hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), IL-6 and small molecules such as serotonin and nucleotides. CD39 (nucleoside triphosphate diphosphohydrolase-1) is the dominant vascular ectonucleotidase expressed on the luminal surface of endothelial cells and modulates extracellular nucleotide signaling. We have previously shown that integrity of P2-receptors, as maintained by CD39, is required for angiogenesis in Matrigel plugs in vivo and that there is synergism between nucleotide P2-receptor- and growth factor-mediated cell proliferation in vitro. We have now explored effects of CD39 on liver regeneration and vascular endothelial growth factor responses in a standard small animal model of partial hepatectomy. The expression of CD39 on liver sinusoidal endothelial cells (LSEC) is substantially boosted during liver regeneration. This transcriptional upregulation precedes maximal sinusoidal endothelial cell proliferation, noted at day 5-8 in C57BL6 wild type mice. In matched mutant mice null for CD39 (n=14), overall survival is decreased to 71% by day 10. Increased lethality occurs as a consequence of extensive LSEC apoptosis, decreased endothelial proliferation and failure of angiogenesis leading to hepatic infarcts and regenerative failure in mutant mice. This aberrant vascular remodeling is associated with biochemical liver injury, elevated serum levels of VEGF (113.9 vs. 65.5pg/ml, p=0.013), and decreased circulating HGF (0.89 vs. 1.43 ng/ml, p=0.001) in mice null for CD39. In agreement with these observations, wild type LSEC but not CD39 null cultures upregulate HGF expression and secretion in response to exogenous VEGF in vitro. CD39 null LSEC cultures show poor proliferation responses and heightened levels of apoptosis when contrasted to wild type LSEC where agonists of P2Y receptors augment cell proliferation in the presence of growth factors. These observations are associated with features of P2Y-desensitization, normal levels of the receptor tyrosine kinase VEGFR-1 (Flt-1) and decreased expression of VEGFR-2 (FLK/KDR) in CD39 null LSEC cultures. We provide evidence that CD39 and extracellular nucleotides impact upon growth factor responses and tyrosine receptor kinases during LSEC proliferation. We propose that CD39 expression by LSEC might co-ordinate angiogenesis-independent liver protection by facilitating VEGF-induced paracrine release of HGF to promote vascular remodeling in liver regeneration.

Does short-term virologic failure translate to clinical events in antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in clinical practice?

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether differences in short-term virologic failure among commonly used antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens translate to differences in clinical events in antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating ART. DESIGN: Observational cohort study of patients initiating ART between January 2000 and December 2005. SETTING: The Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) is a collaboration of 15 HIV cohort studies from Canada, Europe, and the United States. STUDY PARTICIPANTS: A total of 13 546 antiretroviral-naïve HIV-positive patients initiating ART with efavirenz, nevirapine, lopinavir/ritonavir, nelfinavir, or abacavir as third drugs in combination with a zidovudine and lamivudine nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor backbone. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Short-term (24-week) virologic failure (>500 copies/ml) and clinical events within 2 years of ART initiation (incident AIDS-defining event, death, and a composite measure of these two outcomes). RESULTS: Compared with efavirenz as initial third drug, short-term virologic failure was more common with all other third drugs evaluated; nevirapine (adjusted odds ratio = 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.58-2.22), lopinavir/ritonavir (1.32, 95% CI = 1.12-1.57), nelfinavir (3.20, 95% CI = 2.74-3.74), and abacavir (2.13, 95% CI = 1.82-2.50). However, the rate of clinical events within 2 years of ART initiation appeared higher only with nevirapine (adjusted hazard ratio for composite outcome measure 1.27, 95% CI = 1.04-1.56) and abacavir (1.22, 95% CI = 1.00-1.48). CONCLUSION: Among antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating therapy, between-ART regimen, differences in short-term virologic failure do not necessarily translate to differences in clinical outcomes. Our results should be interpreted with caution because of the possibility of residual confounding by indication.

CD39 is incorporated into plasma microparticles where it maintains functional properties and impacts endothelial activation

Plasma microparticles (MPs, <1.5 mum) originate from platelet and cell membrane lipid rafts and possibly regulate inflammatory responses and thrombogenesis. These actions are mediated through their phospholipid-rich surfaces and associated cell-derived surface molecules. The ectonucleotidase CD39/ecto-nucleoside triphosphate diphosphohydrolase1 (E-NTPDase1) modulates purinergic signalling through pericellular ATP and ADP phosphohydrolysis and is localized within lipid rafts in the membranes of endothelial- and immune cells. This study aimed to determine whether CD39 associates with circulating MPs and might further impact phenotype and function. Plasma MPs were found to express CD39 and exhibited classic E-NTPDase ecto-enzymatic activity. Entpd1 (Cd39) deletion in mice produced a pro-inflammatory phenotype associated with quantitative and qualitative differences in the MP populations, as determined by two dimensional-gel electrophoresis, western blot and flow cytometry. Entpd1-null MPs were also more abundant, had significantly higher proportions of platelet- and endothelial-derived elements and decreased levels of interleukin-10, tumour necrosis factor receptor 1 and matrix metalloproteinase 2. Consequently, Cd39-null MP augment endothelial activation, as determined by inflammatory cytokine release and upregulation of adhesion molecules in vitro. In conclusion, CD39 associates with circulating MP and may directly or indirectly confer functional properties. Our data also suggest a modulatory role for CD39 within MP in the exchange of regulatory signals between leucocytes and vascular cells.

CD4+ T cell count recovery in HIV type 1-infected patients is independent of class of antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND: In recent years, treatment options for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection have changed from nonboosted protease inhibitors (PIs) to nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) and boosted PI-based antiretroviral drug regimens, but the impact on immunological recovery remains uncertain. METHODS: During January 1996 through December 2004 [corrected] all patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort were included if they received the first combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and had known baseline CD4(+) T cell counts and HIV-1 RNA values (n = 3293). For follow-up, we used the Swiss HIV Cohort Study database update of May 2007 [corrected] The mean (+/-SD) duration of follow-up was 26.8 +/- 20.5 months. The follow-up time was limited to the duration of the first cART. CD4(+) T cell recovery was analyzed in 3 different treatment groups: nonboosted PI, NNRTI, or boosted PI. The end point was the absolute increase of CD4(+) T cell count in the 3 treatment groups after the initiation of cART. RESULTS: Two thousand five hundred ninety individuals (78.7%) initiated a nonboosted-PI regimen, 452 (13.7%) initiated an NNRTI regimen, and 251 (7.6%) initiated a boosted-PI regimen. Absolute CD4(+) T cell count increases at 48 months were as follows: in the nonboosted-PI group, from 210 to 520 cells/muL; in the NNRTI group, from 220 to 475 cells/muL; and in the boosted-PI group, from 168 to 511 cells/muL. In a multivariate analysis, the treatment group did not affect the response of CD4(+) T cells; however, increased age, pretreatment with nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors, serological tests positive for hepatitis C virus, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stage C infection, lower baseline CD4(+) T cell count, and lower baseline HIV-1 RNA level were risk factors for smaller increases in CD4(+) T cell count. CONCLUSION: CD4(+) T cell recovery was similar in patients receiving nonboosted PI-, NNRTI-, and boosted PI-based cART.

Self-reported non-adherence to antiretroviral therapy repeatedly assessed by two questions predicts treatment failure in virologically suppressed patients

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to explore the predictive value of longitudinal self-reported adherence data on viral rebound. METHODS: Individuals in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study on combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) with RNA <50 copies/ml over the previous 3 months and who were interviewed about adherence at least once prior to 1 March 2007 were eligible. Adherence was defined in terms of missed doses of cART (0, 1, 2 or >2) in the previous 28 days. Viral rebound was defined as RNA >500 copies/ml. Cox regression models with time-independent and -dependent covariates were used to evaluate time to viral rebound. RESULTS: A total of 2,664 individuals and 15,530 visits were included. Across all visits, missing doses were reported as follows: 1 dose 14.7%, 2 doses 5.1%, >2 doses 3.8% taking <95% of doses 4.5% and missing > or =2 consecutive doses 3.2%. In total, 308 (11.6%) patients experienced viral rebound. After controlling for confounding variables, self-reported non-adherence remained significantly associated with the rate of occurrence of viral rebound (compared with zero missed doses: 1 dose, hazard ratio [HR] 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72-1.48; 2 doses, HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.46-3.25; >2 doses, HR 3.66, 95% CI 2.50-5.34). Several variables significantly associated with an increased risk of viral rebound irrespective of adherence were identified: being on a protease inhibitor or triple nucleoside regimen (compared with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor), >5 previous cART regimens, seeing a less-experienced physician, taking co-medication, and a shorter time virally suppressed. CONCLUSIONS: A simple self-report adherence questionnaire repeatedly administered provides a sensitive measure of non-adherence that predicts viral rebound.

NON-CHROMATOGRAPHIC PURIFICATION OF SYNTHETIC BIO-OLIGOMERS

Synthetic oligonucleotides and peptides have found wide applications in industry and academic research labs. There are ~60 peptide drugs on the market and over 500 under development. The global annual sale of peptide drugs in 2010 was estimated to be $13 billion. There are three oligonucleotide-based drugs on market; among them, the FDA newly approved Kynamro was predicted to have a $100 million annual sale. The annual sale of oligonucleotides to academic labs was estimated to be $700 million. Both bio-oligomers are mostly synthesized on automated synthesizers using solid phase synthesis technology, in which nucleoside or amino acid monomers are added sequentially until the desired full-length sequence is reached. The additions cannot be complete, which generates truncated undesired failure sequences. For almost all applications, these impurities must be removed. The most widely used method is HPLC. However, the method is slow, expensive, labor-intensive, not amendable for automation, difficult to scale up, and unsuitable for high throughput purification. It needs large capital investment, and consumes large volumes of harmful solvents. The purification costs are estimated to be more than 50% of total production costs. Other methods for bio-oligomer purification also have drawbacks, and are less favored than HPLC for most applications. To overcome the problems of known biopolymer purification technologies, we have developed two non-chromatographic purification methods. They are (1) catching failure sequences by polymerization, and (2) catching full-length sequences by polymerization. In the first method, a polymerizable group is attached to the failure sequences of the bio-oligomers during automated synthesis; purification is achieved by simply polymerizing the failure sequences into an insoluble gel and extracting full-length sequences. In the second method, a polymerizable group is attached to the full-length sequences, which are then incorporated into a polymer; impurities are removed by washing, and pure product is cleaved from polymer. These methods do not need chromatography, and all drawbacks of HPLC no longer exist. Using them, purification is achieved by simple manipulations such as shaking and extraction. Therefore, they are suitable for large scale purification of oligonucleotide and peptide drugs, and also ideal for high throughput purification, which currently has a high demand for research projects involving total gene synthesis. The dissertation will present the details about the development of the techniques. Chapter 1 will make an introduction to oligodeoxynucleotides (ODNs), their synthesis and purification. Chapter 2 will describe the detailed studies of using the catching failure sequences by polymerization method to purify ODNs. Chapter 3 will describe the further optimization of the catching failure sequences by polymerization ODN purification technology to the level of practical use. Chapter 4 will present using the catching full-length sequence by polymerization method for ODN purification using acid-cleavable linker. Chapter 5 will make an introduction to peptides, their synthesis and purification. Chapter 6 will describe the studies using the catching full-length sequence by polymerization method for peptide purification.

Radiation metabolomics. 2. Dose- and time-dependent urinary excretion of deaminated purines and pyrimidines after sublethal gamma-radiation exposure in mice

Gamma-radiation exposure of humans is a major public health concern as the threat of terrorism and potential hostile use of radiological devices increases worldwide. We report here the effects of sublethal gamma-radiation exposure on the mouse urinary metabolome determined using ultra-performance liquid chromatography-coupled time-of-flight mass spectrometry-based metabolomics. Five urinary biomarkers of sublethal radiation exposure that were statistically significantly elevated during the first 24 h after exposure to doses ranging from 1 to 3 Gy were unequivocally identified by tandem mass spectrometry. These are deaminated purine and pyrimidine derivatives, namely, thymidine, 2'-deoxyuridine, 2'-deoxyxanthosine, xanthine and xanthosine. Furthermore, the aminopyrimidine 2'-deoxycytidine appeared to display reduced urinary excretion at 2 and 3 Gy. The elevated biomarkers displayed a time-dependent excretion, peaking in urine at 8-12 h but returning to baseline by 36 h after exposure. It is proposed that 2'-deoxyuridine and 2'-deoxyxanthosine arise as a result of gamma irradiation by nitrosative deamination of 2'-deoxycytidine and 2'-deoxyguanosine, respectively, and that this further leads to increased synthesis of thymidine, xanthine and xanthosine. The urinary excretion of deaminated purines and pyrimidines, at the expense of aminopurines and aminopyrimidines, appears to form the core of the urinary radiation metabolomic signature of mice exposed to sublethal doses of ionizing radiation.

Accuracy of WHO CD4 cell count criteria for virological failure of antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVES: To examine the accuracy of the World Health Organization immunological criteria for virological failure of antiretroviral treatment. METHODS: Analysis of 10 treatment programmes in Africa and South America that monitor both CD4 cell counts and HIV-1 viral load. Adult patients with at least two CD4 counts and viral load measurements between month 6 and 18 after starting a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based regimen were included. WHO immunological criteria include CD4 counts persistently <100 cells/microl, a fall below the baseline CD4 count, or a fall of >50% from the peak value. Virological failure was defined as two measurements > or =10 0000 copies/ml (higher threshold) or > or =500 copies/ml (lower threshold). Measures of accuracy with exact binomial 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 2009 patients were included. During 1856 person-years of follow up 63 patients met the immunological criteria and 35 patients (higher threshold) and 95 patients (lower threshold) met the virological criteria. Sensitivity [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 17.1% (6.6-33.6%) for the higher and 12.6% (6.7-21.0%) for the lower threshold. Corresponding results for specificity were 97.1% (96.3-97.8%) and 97.3% (96.5-98.0%), for positive predictive value 9.5% (3.6-19.6%) and 19.0% (10.2-30.9%) and for negative predictive value 98.5% (97.9-99.0%) and 95.7% (94.7-96.6%). CONCLUSIONS: The positive predictive value of the WHO immunological criteria for virological failure of antiretroviral treatment in resource-limited settings is poor, but the negative predictive value is high. Immunological criteria are more appropriate for ruling out than for ruling in virological failure in resource-limited settings.

Up-regulation of the peroxiredoxin-6 related metabolism of reactive oxygen species in skeletal muscle of mice lacking neuronal nitric oxide synthase

Although neuronal nitric oxide synthase (nNOS) plays a substantial role in skeletal muscle physiology, nNOS-knockout mice manifest an only mild phenotypic malfunction in this tissue. To identify proteins that might be involved in adaptive responses in skeletal muscle of knockout mice lacking nNOS, 2D-PAGE with silver-staining and subsequent tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) was performed using extracts of extensor digitorum longus muscle (EDL) derived from nNOS-knockout mice in comparison to C57Bl/6 control mice. Six proteins were significantly (P < or = 0.05) more highly expressed in EDL of nNOS-knockout mice than in that of C57 control mice, all of which are involved in the metabolism of reactive oxygen species (ROS). These included prohibitin (2.0-fold increase), peroxiredoxin-3 (1.9-fold increase), Cu(2+)/Zn(2+)-dependent superoxide dismutase (SOD; 1.9-fold increase), heat shock protein beta-1 (HSP25; 1.7-fold increase) and nucleoside diphosphate kinase B (2.6-fold increase). A significantly higher expression (4.1-fold increase) and a pI shift from 6.5 to 5.9 of peroxiredoxin-6 in the EDL of nNOS-knockout mice were confirmed by quantitative immunoblotting. The concentrations of the mRNA encoding five of these proteins (the exception being prohibitin) were likewise significantly (P < or = 0.05) higher in the EDL of nNOS-knockout mice. A higher intrinsic hydrogen peroxidase activity (P < or = 0.05) was demonstrated in EDL of nNOS-knockout mice than C57 control mice, which was related to the presence of peroxiredoxin-6. The treatment of mice with the chemical NOS inhibitor L-NAME for 3 days induced a significant 3.4-fold up-regulation of peroxiredoxin-6 in the EDL of C57 control mice (P < or = 0.05), but did not alter its expression in EDL of nNOS-knockout mice. ESR spectrometry demonstrated the levels of superoxide to be 2.5-times higher (P < or = 0.05) in EDL of nNOS-knockout mice than in C57 control mice while an in vitro assay based on the emission of 2,7-dichlorofluorescein fluorescence disclosed the concentration of ROS to be similar in both strains of mice. We suggest that the up-regulation of proteins that are implicated in the metabolism of ROS, particularly of peroxiredoxin-6, within skeletal muscles of nNOS-knockout mice functionally compensates for the absence of nNOS in scavenging of superoxide.

Synthesis of bicyclo-DNA nucleosides with additional functionalization in the carbocyclic ring

Two novel bicyclo nucleoside isomers carrying the base thymine in the furanose ring and an ester substituent in the carbocyclic ring were synthesized from a common bicyclic sugar precursor via a cyclopropanation/fragmentation pathway in nine steps. The relative configuration of the ester substituent in both isomers as well as the anomeric configuration in one nucleoside was determined by 1H-NMR difference NOE spectroscopy.

Gene therapy for immunodeficiency due to adenosine deaminase deficiency

BACKGROUND: We investigated the long-term outcome of gene therapy for severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) due to the lack of adenosine deaminase (ADA), a fatal disorder of purine metabolism and immunodeficiency. METHODS: We infused autologous CD34+ bone marrow cells transduced with a retroviral vector containing the ADA gene into 10 children with SCID due to ADA deficiency who lacked an HLA-identical sibling donor, after nonmyeloablative conditioning with busulfan. Enzyme-replacement therapy was not given after infusion of the cells. RESULTS: All patients are alive after a median follow-up of 4.0 years (range, 1.8 to 8.0). Transduced hematopoietic stem cells have stably engrafted and differentiated into myeloid cells containing ADA (mean range at 1 year in bone marrow lineages, 3.5 to 8.9%) and lymphoid cells (mean range in peripheral blood, 52.4 to 88.0%). Eight patients do not require enzyme-replacement therapy, their blood cells continue to express ADA, and they have no signs of defective detoxification of purine metabolites. Nine patients had immune reconstitution with increases in T-cell counts (median count at 3 years, 1.07x10(9) per liter) and normalization of T-cell function. In the five patients in whom intravenous immune globulin replacement was discontinued, antigen-specific antibody responses were elicited after exposure to vaccines or viral antigens. Effective protection against infections and improvement in physical development made a normal lifestyle possible. Serious adverse events included prolonged neutropenia (in two patients), hypertension (in one), central-venous-catheter-related infections (in two), Epstein-Barr virus reactivation (in one), and autoimmune hepatitis (in one). CONCLUSIONS: Gene therapy, combined with reduced-intensity conditioning, is a safe and effective treatment for SCID in patients with ADA deficiency. (ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00598481 and NCT00599781.)

Virological and immunological responses to efavirenz or boosted lopinavir as first-line therapy for patients with HIV

BACKGROUND: Efavirenz and lopinavir boosted with ritonavir are both recommended as first-line therapies for patients with HIV when combined with two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. It is uncertain which therapy is more effective for patients starting therapy with an advanced infection. METHODS: We estimated the relative effect of these two therapies on rates of virological and immunological failure within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and considered whether estimates depended on the CD4(+) T-cell count when starting therapy. We defined virological failure as either an incomplete virological response or viral rebound after viral suppression and immunological failure as failure to achieve an expected CD4(+) T-cell increase calculated from EuroSIDA statistics. RESULTS: Patients starting efavirenz (n=660) and lopinavir (n=541) were followed for a median of 4.5 and 3.1 years, respectively. Virological failure was less likely for patients on efavirenz, with the adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 0.63 (0.50-0.78) then multiplied by a factor of 1.00 (0.90-1.12) for each 100 cells/mm(3) decrease in CD4(+) T-cell count below the mean when starting therapy. Immunological failure was also less likely for patients on efavirenz, with the adjusted hazard ratio of 0.68 (0.51-0.91) then multiplied by a factor of 1.29 (1.14-1.46) for each 100 cells/mm(3) decrease in CD4(+) T-cell count below the mean when starting therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Virological failure is less likely with efavirenz regardless of the CD4(+) T-cell count when starting therapy. Immunological failure is also less likely with efavirenz; however, this advantage disappears if patients start therapy with a low CD4(+) T-cell count.

Long-term trends of HIV type 1 drug resistance prevalence among antiretroviral treatment-experienced patients in Switzerland

BACKGROUND:Accurate quantification of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) drug resistance in patients who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is difficult, and results from previous studies vary. We attempted to assess the prevalence and dynamics of resistance in a highly representative patient cohort from Switzerland. METHODS:On the basis of genotypic resistance test results and clinical data, we grouped patients according to their risk of harboring resistant viruses. Estimates of resistance prevalence were calculated on the basis of either the proportion of individuals with a virologic failure or confirmed drug resistance (lower estimate) or the frequency-weighted average of risk group-specific probabilities for the presence of drug resistance mutations (upper estimate). RESULTS:Lower and upper estimates of drug resistance prevalence in 8064 ART-exposed patients were 50% and 57% in 1999 and 37% and 45% in 2007, respectively. This decrease was driven by 2 mechanisms: loss to follow-up or death of high-risk patients exposed to mono- or dual-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor therapy (lower estimates range from 72% to 75%) and continued enrollment of low-risk patients who were taking combination ART containing boosted protease inhibitors or nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors as first-line therapy (lower estimates range from 7% to 12%). A subset of 4184 participants (52%) had >or= 1 study visit per year during 2002-2007. In this subset, lower and upper estimates increased from 45% to 49% and from 52% to 55%, respectively. Yearly increases in prevalence were becoming smaller in later years. CONCLUSIONS:Contrary to earlier predictions, in situations of free access to drugs, close monitoring, and rapid introduction of new potent therapies, the emergence of drug-resistant viruses can be minimized at the population level. Moreover, this study demonstrates the necessity of interpreting time trends in the context of evolving cohort populations.