Model selection approaches for non-linear system identification: a review

The identification of non-linear systems using only observed finite datasets has become a mature research area over the last two decades. A class of linear-in-the-parameter models with universal approximation capabilities have been intensively studied and widely used due to the availability of many linear-learning algorithms and their inherent convergence conditions. This article presents a systematic overview of basic research on model selection approaches for linear-in-the-parameter models. One of the fundamental problems in non-linear system identification is to find the minimal model with the best model generalisation performance from observational data only. The important concepts in achieving good model generalisation used in various non-linear system-identification algorithms are first reviewed, including Bayesian parameter regularisation and models selective criteria based on the cross validation and experimental design. A significant advance in machine learning has been the development of the support vector machine as a means for identifying kernel models based on the structural risk minimisation principle. The developments on the convex optimisation-based model construction algorithms including the support vector regression algorithms are outlined. Input selection algorithms and on-line system identification algorithms are also included in this review. Finally, some industrial applications of non-linear models are discussed.

Single trial BCI operation via Wackermann parameters

Accurate single trial P300 classification lends itself to fast and accurate control of Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs). Highly accurate classification of single trial P300 ERPs is achieved by characterizing the EEG via corresponding stationary and time-varying Wackermann parameters. Subsets of maximally discriminating parameters are then selected using the Network Clustering feature selection algorithm and classified with Naive-Bayes and Linear Discriminant Analysis classifiers. Hence the method is assessed on two different data-sets from BCI competitions and is shown to produce accuracies of between approximately 70% and 85%. This is promising for the use of Wackermann parameters as features in the classification of single-trial ERP responses.

Heat kernel smoothing via Laplace-Beltrami eigenfunctions and its application to subcortical structure modeling

We present a new subcortical structure shape modeling framework using heat kernel smoothing constructed with the Laplace-Beltrami eigenfunctions. The cotan discretization is used to numerically obtain the eigenfunctions of the Laplace-Beltrami operator along the surface of subcortical structures of the brain. The eigenfunctions are then used to construct the heat kernel and used in smoothing out measurements noise along the surface. The proposed framework is applied in investigating the influence of age (38-79 years) and gender on amygdala and hippocampus shape. We detected a significant age effect on hippocampus in accordance with the previous studies. In addition, we also detected a significant gender effect on amygdala. Since we did not find any such differences in the traditional volumetric methods, our results demonstrate the benefit of the current framework over traditional volumetric methods.

Understanding the transition to seizure by modeling the epileptiform activity of general anesthetic agents

A central difficulty in modeling epileptogenesis using biologically plausible computational and mathematical models is not the production of activity characteristic of a seizure, but rather producing it in response to specific and quantifiable physiologic change or pathologic abnormality. This is particularly problematic when it is considered that the pathophysiological genesis of most epilepsies is largely unknown. However, several volatile general anesthetic agents, whose principle targets of action are quantifiably well characterized, are also known to be proconvulsant. The authors describe recent approaches to theoretically describing the electroencephalographic effects of volatile general anesthetic agents that may be able to provide important insights into the physiologic mechanisms that underpin seizure initiation.

Diversifying into technical clothing manufacture as entrepreneurial learning: a situated learning theory perspective

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate analytically how entrepreneurial action as learning relating to diversifying into technical clothing – i.e. a high-value manufacturing sector – can take place. This is particularly relevant to recent discussion and debate in academic and policy-making circles concerning the survival of the clothing manufacture industry in developed industrialised countries. Design/methodology/approach – Using situated learning theory (SLT) as the major analytical lens, this case study examines an episode of entrepreneurial action relating to diversification into a high-value manufacturing sector. It is considered on instrumentality grounds, revealing wider tendencies in the management of knowledge and capabilities requisite for effective entrepreneurial action of this kind. Findings – Boundary events, brokers, boundary objects, membership structures and inclusive participation that addresses power asymmetries are found to be crucial organisational design elements, enabling the development of inter- and intracommunal capacities. These together constitute a dynamic learning capability, which underpins entrepreneurial action, such as diversification into high-value manufacturing sectors. Originality/value – Through a refinement of SLT in the context of entrepreneurial action, the paper contributes to an advancement of a substantive theory of managing technological knowledge and capabilities for effective diversification into high-value manufacturing sectors.

Discovering biomarkers for antidepressant response: protocol from the Canadian biomarker integration network in depression (CAN-BIND) and clinical characteristics of the first patient cohort

Background Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) is among the most prevalent and disabling medical conditions worldwide. Identification of clinical and biological markers (“biomarkers”) of treatment response could personalize clinical decisions and lead to better outcomes. This paper describes the aims, design, and methods of a discovery study of biomarkers in antidepressant treatment response, conducted by the Canadian Biomarker Integration Network in Depression (CAN-BIND). The CAN-BIND research program investigates and identifies biomarkers that help to predict outcomes in patients with MDD treated with antidepressant medication. The primary objective of this initial study (known as CAN-BIND-1) is to identify individual and integrated neuroimaging, electrophysiological, molecular, and clinical predictors of response to sequential antidepressant monotherapy and adjunctive therapy in MDD. Methods CAN-BIND-1 is a multisite initiative involving 6 academic health centres working collaboratively with other universities and research centres. In the 16-week protocol, patients with MDD are treated with a first-line antidepressant (escitalopram 10–20 mg/d) that, if clinically warranted after eight weeks, is augmented with an evidence-based, add-on medication (aripiprazole 2–10 mg/d). Comprehensive datasets are obtained using clinical rating scales; behavioural, dimensional, and functioning/quality of life measures; neurocognitive testing; genomic, genetic, and proteomic profiling from blood samples; combined structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging; and electroencephalography. De-identified data from all sites are aggregated within a secure neuroinformatics platform for data integration, management, storage, and analyses. Statistical analyses will include multivariate and machine-learning techniques to identify predictors, moderators, and mediators of treatment response. Discussion From June 2013 to February 2015, a cohort of 134 participants (85 outpatients with MDD and 49 healthy participants) has been evaluated at baseline. The clinical characteristics of this cohort are similar to other studies of MDD. Recruitment at all sites is ongoing to a target sample of 290 participants. CAN-BIND will identify biomarkers of treatment response in MDD through extensive clinical, molecular, and imaging assessments, in order to improve treatment practice and clinical outcomes. It will also create an innovative, robust platform and database for future research.

An investigation into feature construction to assist word sense disambiguation

Identifying the correct sense of a word in context is crucial for many tasks in natural language processing (machine translation is an example). State-of-the art methods for Word Sense Disambiguation (WSD) build models using hand-crafted features that usually capturing shallow linguistic information. Complex background knowledge, such as semantic relationships, are typically either not used, or used in specialised manner, due to the limitations of the feature-based modelling techniques used. On the other hand, empirical results from the use of Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) systems have repeatedly shown that they can use diverse sources of background knowledge when constructing models. In this paper, we investigate whether this ability of ILP systems could be used to improve the predictive accuracy of models for WSD. Specifically, we examine the use of a general-purpose ILP system as a method to construct a set of features using semantic, syntactic and lexical information. This feature-set is then used by a common modelling technique in the field (a support vector machine) to construct a classifier for predicting the sense of a word. In our investigation we examine one-shot and incremental approaches to feature-set construction applied to monolingual and bilingual WSD tasks. The monolingual tasks use 32 verbs and 85 verbs and nouns (in English) from the SENSEVAL-3 and SemEval-2007 benchmarks; while the bilingual WSD task consists of 7 highly ambiguous verbs in translating from English to Portuguese. The results are encouraging: the ILP-assisted models show substantial improvements over those that simply use shallow features. In addition, incremental feature-set construction appears to identify smaller and better sets of features. Taken together, the results suggest that the use of ILP with diverse sources of background knowledge provide a way for making substantial progress in the field of WSD.

HIERARCHICAL DECOMPOSITION OF MULTICLASS PROBLEMS

Several popular Machine Learning techniques are originally designed for the solution of two-class problems. However, several classification problems have more than two classes. One approach to deal with multiclass problems using binary classifiers is to decompose the multiclass problem into multiple binary sub-problems disposed in a binary tree. This approach requires a binary partition of the classes for each node of the tree, which defines the tree structure. This paper presents two algorithms to determine the tree structure taking into account information collected from the used dataset. This approach allows the tree structure to be determined automatically for any multiclass dataset.

An Information Theory framework for two-stage binary image operator design

The design of translation invariant and locally defined binary image operators over large windows is made difficult by decreased statistical precision and increased training time. We present a complete framework for the application of stacked design, a recently proposed technique to create two-stage operators that circumvents that difficulty. We propose a novel algorithm, based on Information Theory, to find groups of pixels that should be used together to predict the Output Value. We employ this algorithm to automate the process of creating a set of first-level operators that are later combined in a global operator. We also propose a principled way to guide this combination, by using feature selection and model comparison. Experimental results Show that the proposed framework leads to better results than single stage design. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Computerized identification of motor complications in Parkinson's disease

Objective: To investigate whether spirography-based objective measures are able to effectively characterize the severity of unwanted symptom states (Off and dyskinesia) and discriminate them from motor state of healthy elderly subjects. Background: Sixty-five patients with advanced Parkinson’s disease (PD) and 10 healthy elderly (HE) subjects performed repeated assessments of spirography, using a touch screen telemetry device in their home environments. On inclusion, the patients were either treated with levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel or were candidates for switching to this treatment. On each test occasion, the subjects were asked trace a pre-drawn Archimedes spiral shown on the screen, using an ergonomic pen stylus. The test was repeated three times and was performed using dominant hand. A clinician used a web interface which animated the spiral drawings, allowing him to observe different kinematic features, like accelerations and spatial changes, during the drawing process and to rate different motor impairments. Initially, the motor impairments of drawing speed, irregularity and hesitation were rated on a 0 (normal) to 4 (extremely severe) scales followed by marking the momentary motor state of the patient into 2 categories that is Off and Dyskinesia. A sample of spirals drawn by HE subjects was randomly selected and used in subsequent analysis. Methods: The raw spiral data, consisting of stylus position and timestamp, were processed using time series analysis techniques like discrete wavelet transform, approximate entropy and dynamic time warping in order to extract 13 quantitative measures for representing meaningful motor impairment information. A principal component analysis (PCA) was used to reduce the dimensions of the quantitative measures into 4 principal components (PC). In order to classify the motor states into 3 categories that is Off, HE and dyskinesia, a logistic regression model was used as a classifier to map the 4 PCs to the corresponding clinically assigned motor state categories. A stratified 10-fold cross-validation (also known as rotation estimation) was applied to assess the generalization ability of the logistic regression classifier to future independent data sets. To investigate mean differences of the 4 PCs across the three categories, a one-way ANOVA test followed by Tukey multiple comparisons was used. Results: The agreements between computed and clinician ratings were very good with a weighted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) coefficient of 0.91. The mean PC scores were different across the three motor state categories, only at different levels. The first 2 PCs were good at discriminating between the motor states whereas the PC3 was good at discriminating between HE subjects and PD patients. The mean scores of PC4 showed a trend across the three states but without significant differences. The Spearman’s rank correlations between the first 2 PCs and clinically assessed motor impairments were as follows: drawing speed (PC1, 0.34; PC2, 0.83), irregularity (PC1, 0.17; PC2, 0.17), and hesitation (PC1, 0.27; PC2, 0.77). Conclusions: These findings suggest that spirography-based objective measures are valid measures of spatial- and time-dependent deficits and can be used to distinguish drug-related motor dysfunctions between Off and dyskinesia in PD. These measures can be potentially useful during clinical evaluation of individualized drug-related complications such as over- and under-medications thus maximizing the amount of time the patients spend in the On state.

Visualization of spirography-based objective measures in Parkinson's disease

Objective: To investigate whether advanced visualizations of spirography-based objective measures are useful in differentiating drug-related motor dysfunctions between Off and dyskinesia in Parkinson’s disease (PD). Background: During the course of a 3 year longitudinal clinical study, in total 65 patients (43 males and 22 females with mean age of 65) with advanced PD and 10 healthy elderly (HE) subjects (5 males and 5 females with mean age of 61) were assessed. Both patients and HE subjects performed repeated and time-stamped assessments of their objective health indicators using a test battery implemented on a telemetry touch screen handheld computer, in their home environment settings. Among other tasks, the subjects were asked to trace a pre-drawn Archimedes spiral using the dominant hand and repeat the test three times per test occasion. Methods: A web-based framework was developed to enable a visual exploration of relevant spirography-based kinematic features by clinicians so they can in turn evaluate the motor states of the patients i.e. Off and dyskinesia. The system uses different visualization techniques such as time series plots, animation, and interaction and organizes them into different views to aid clinicians in measuring spatial and time-dependent irregularities that could be associated with the motor states. Along with the animation view, the system displays two time series plots for representing drawing speed (blue line) and displacement from ideal trajectory (orange line). The views are coordinated and linked i.e. user interactions in one of the views will be reflected in other views. For instance, when the user points in one of the pixels in the spiral view, the circle size of the underlying pixel increases and a vertical line appears in the time series views to depict the corresponding position. In addition, in order to enable clinicians to observe erratic movements more clearly and thus improve the detection of irregularities, the system displays a color-map which gives an idea of the longevity of the spirography task. Figure 2 shows single randomly selected spirals drawn by a: A) patient who experienced dyskinesias, B) HE subject, and C) patient in Off state. Results: According to a domain expert (DN), the spirals drawn in the Off and dyskinesia motor states are characterized by different spatial and time features. For instance, the spiral shown in Fig. 2A was drawn by a patient who showed symptoms of dyskinesia; the drawing speed was relatively high (cf. blue-colored time series plot and the short timestamp scale in the x axis) and the spatial displacement was high (cf. orange-colored time series plot) associated with smooth deviations as a result of uncontrollable movements. The patient also exhibited low amount of hesitation which could be reflected both in the animation of the spiral as well as time series plots. In contrast, the patient who was in the Off state exhibited different kinematic features, as shown in Fig. 2C. In the case of spirals drawn by a HE subject, there was a great precision during the drawing process as well as unchanging levels of time-dependent features over the test trial, as seen in Fig. 2B. Conclusions: Visualizing spirography-based objective measures enables identification of trends and patterns of drug-related motor dysfunctions at the patient’s individual level. Dynamic access of visualized motor tests may be useful during the evaluation of drug-related complications such as under- and over-medications, providing decision support to clinicians during evaluation of treatment effects as well as improve the quality of life of patients and their caregivers. In future, we plan to evaluate the proposed approach by assessing within- and between-clinician variability in ratings in order to determine its actual usefulness and then use these ratings as target outcomes in supervised machine learning, similarly as it was previously done in the study performed by Memedi et al. (2013).

First-principle data-driven models for assessment of motor disorders in Parkinson’s disease

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is an increasing neurological disorder in an aging society. The motor and non-motor symptoms of PD advance with the disease progression and occur in varying frequency and duration. In order to affirm the full extent of a patient’s condition, repeated assessments are necessary to adjust medical prescription. In clinical studies, symptoms are assessed using the unified Parkinson’s disease rating scale (UPDRS). On one hand, the subjective rating using UPDRS relies on clinical expertise. On the other hand, it requires the physical presence of patients in clinics which implies high logistical costs. Another limitation of clinical assessment is that the observation in hospital may not accurately represent a patient’s situation at home. For such reasons, the practical frequency of tracking PD symptoms may under-represent the true time scale of PD fluctuations and may result in an overall inaccurate assessment. Current technologies for at-home PD treatment are based on data-driven approaches for which the interpretation and reproduction of results are problematic.  The overall objective of this thesis is to develop and evaluate unobtrusive computer methods for enabling remote monitoring of patients with PD. It investigates first-principle data-driven model based novel signal and image processing techniques for extraction of clinically useful information from audio recordings of speech (in texts read aloud) and video recordings of gait and finger-tapping motor examinations. The aim is to map between PD symptoms severities estimated using novel computer methods and the clinical ratings based on UPDRS part-III (motor examination). A web-based test battery system consisting of self-assessment of symptoms and motor function tests was previously constructed for a touch screen mobile device. A comprehensive speech framework has been developed for this device to analyze text-dependent running speech by: (1) extracting novel signal features that are able to represent PD deficits in each individual component of the speech system, (2) mapping between clinical ratings and feature estimates of speech symptom severity, and (3) classifying between UPDRS part-III severity levels using speech features and statistical machine learning tools. A novel speech processing method called cepstral separation difference showed stronger ability to classify between speech symptom severities as compared to existing features of PD speech. In the case of finger tapping, the recorded videos of rapid finger tapping examination were processed using a novel computer-vision (CV) algorithm that extracts symptom information from video-based tapping signals using motion analysis of the index-finger which incorporates a face detection module for signal calibration. This algorithm was able to discriminate between UPDRS part III severity levels of finger tapping with high classification rates. Further analysis was performed on novel CV based gait features constructed using a standard human model to discriminate between a healthy gait and a Parkinsonian gait. The findings of this study suggest that the symptom severity levels in PD can be discriminated with high accuracies by involving a combination of first-principle (features) and data-driven (classification) approaches. The processing of audio and video recordings on one hand allows remote monitoring of speech, gait and finger-tapping examinations by the clinical staff. On the other hand, the first-principles approach eases the understanding of symptom estimates for clinicians. We have demonstrated that the selected features of speech, gait and finger tapping were able to discriminate between symptom severity levels, as well as, between healthy controls and PD patients with high classification rates. The findings support suitability of these methods to be used as decision support tools in the context of PD assessment.

Automatic spiral analysis for objective assessment of motor symptoms in Parkinson's disease

Objective: To develop a method for objective quantification of PD motor symptoms related to Off episodes and peak dose dyskinesias, using spiral data gathered by using a touch screen telemetry device. The aim was to objectively characterize predominant motor phenotypes (bradykinesia and dyskinesia), to help in automating the process of visual interpretation of movement anomalies in spirals as rated by movement disorder specialists. Background: A retrospective analysis was conducted on recordings from 65 patients with advanced idiopathic PD from nine different clinics in Sweden, recruited from January 2006 until August 2010. In addition to the patient group, 10 healthy elderly subjects were recruited. Upper limb movement data were collected using a touch screen telemetry device from home environments of the subjects. Measurements with the device were performed four times per day during week-long test periods. On each test occasion, the subjects were asked to trace pre-drawn Archimedean spirals, using the dominant hand. The pre-drawn spiral was shown on the screen of the device. The spiral test was repeated three times per test occasion and they were instructed to complete it within 10 seconds. The device had a sampling rate of 10Hz and measured both position and time-stamps (in milliseconds) of the pen tip. Methods: Four independent raters (FB, DH, AJ and DN) used a web interface that animated the spiral drawings and allowed them to observe different kinematic features during the drawing process and to rate task performance. Initially, a number of kinematic features were assessed including ‘impairment’, ‘speed’, ‘irregularity’ and ‘hesitation’ followed by marking the predominant motor phenotype on a 3-category scale: tremor, bradykinesia and/or choreatic dyskinesia. There were only 2 test occasions for which all the four raters either classified them as tremor or could not identify the motor phenotype. Therefore, the two main motor phenotype categories were bradykinesia and dyskinesia. ‘Impairment’ was rated on a scale from 0 (no impairment) to 10 (extremely severe) whereas ‘speed’, ‘irregularity’ and ‘hesitation’ were rated on a scale from 0 (normal) to 4 (extremely severe). The proposed data-driven method consisted of the following steps. Initially, 28 spatiotemporal features were extracted from the time series signals before being presented to a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) classifier. The features were based on different kinematic quantities of spirals including radius, angle, speed and velocity with the aim of measuring the severity of involuntary symptoms and discriminate between PD-specific (bradykinesia) and/or treatment-induced symptoms (dyskinesia). A Principal Component Analysis was applied on the features to reduce their dimensions where 4 relevant principal components (PCs) were retained and used as inputs to the MLP classifier. Finally, the MLP classifier mapped these components to the corresponding visually assessed motor phenotype scores for automating the process of scoring the bradykinesia and dyskinesia in PD patients whilst they draw spirals using the touch screen device. For motor phenotype (bradykinesia vs. dyskinesia) classification, the stratified 10-fold cross validation technique was employed. Results: There were good agreements between the four raters when rating the individual kinematic features with intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.88 for ‘impairment’, 0.74 for ‘speed’, 0.70 for ‘irregularity’, and moderate agreements when rating ‘hesitation’ with an ICC of 0.49. When assessing the two main motor phenotype categories (bradykinesia or dyskinesia) in animated spirals the agreements between the four raters ranged from fair to moderate. There were good correlations between mean ratings of the four raters on individual kinematic features and computed scores. The MLP classifier classified the motor phenotype that is bradykinesia or dyskinesia with an accuracy of 85% in relation to visual classifications of the four movement disorder specialists. The test-retest reliability of the four PCs across the three spiral test trials was good with Cronbach’s Alpha coefficients of 0.80, 0.82, 0.54 and 0.49, respectively. These results indicate that the computed scores are stable and consistent over time. Significant differences were found between the two groups (patients and healthy elderly subjects) in all the PCs, except for the PC3. Conclusions: The proposed method automatically assessed the severity of unwanted symptoms and could reasonably well discriminate between PD-specific and/or treatment-induced motor symptoms, in relation to visual assessments of movement disorder specialists. The objective assessments could provide a time-effect summary score that could be useful for improving decision-making during symptom evaluation of individualized treatment when the goal is to maximize functional On time for patients while minimizing their Off episodes and troublesome dyskinesias.

Automatic spiral analysis for objective assessment of motor symptoms in Parkinson's disease

A challenge for the clinical management of advanced Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients is the emergence of fluctuations in motor performance, which represents a significant source of disability during activities of daily living of the patients. There is a lack of objective measurement of treatment effects for in-clinic and at-home use that can provide an overview of the treatment response. The objective of this paper was to develop a method for objective quantification of advanced PD motor symptoms related to off episodes and peak dose dyskinesia, using spiral data gathered by a touch screen telemetry device. More specifically, the aim was to objectively characterize motor symptoms (bradykinesia and dyskinesia), to help in automating the process of visual interpretation of movement anomalies in spirals as rated by movement disorder specialists. Digitized upper limb movement data of 65 advanced PD patients and 10 healthy (HE) subjects were recorded as they performed spiral drawing tasks on a touch screen device in their home environment settings. Several spatiotemporal features were extracted from the time series and used as inputs to machine learning methods. The methods were validated against ratings on animated spirals scored by four movement disorder specialists who visually assessed a set of kinematic features and the motor symptom. The ability of the method to discriminate between PD patients and HE subjects and the test-retest reliability of the computed scores were also evaluated. Computed scores correlated well with mean visual ratings of individual kinematic features. The best performing classifier (Multilayer Perceptron) classified the motor symptom (bradykinesia or dyskinesia) with an accuracy of 84% and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.86 in relation to visual classifications of the raters. In addition, the method provided high discriminating power when distinguishing between PD patients and HE subjects as well as had good test-retest reliability. This study demonstrated the potential of using digital spiral analysis for objective quantification of PD-specific and/or treatment-induced motor symptoms.

Low cost non-intrusive home energy monitoring

This thesis presents a low cost non-intrusive home energy monitor built on top of Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) concepts and techniques. NILM solutions are already considered low cost alternatives to the big majority of existing commercial energy monitors but the goal here is to make its cost even lower by using a mini netbook as a whole in one solution. The mini netbook is installed in the homes main circuit breaker and computes power consumption by reading current and voltage from the built-in sound card. At the same time, feedback to the users is provided using the 11’’ LCD screen as well as other built-in I/O modules. Our meter is also capable of detecting changes in power and tries to find out which appliance lead to that change and it is being used as part of an eco-feedback platform that was build to study the long terms of energy eco-feedback in individuals. In this thesis the steps that were taken to come up with such a system are presented, from the basics of AC power measurements to the implementation of an event detector and classifier that was used to disaggregate the power load. In the last chapter results from some validation tests that have been performed are presented in order to validate the experiment. It is believed that such a system will not only be important as an energy monitor, but also as an open system than can be easily changed to accommodate and test new or existing nonintrusive load monitoring techniques.