950 resultados para Model accuracy


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The implementation of confidential contracts between a container liner carrier and its customers, because of the Ocean Shipping Reform Act (OSRA) 1998, demands a revision in the methodology applied in the carrier's planning of marketing and sales. The marketing and sales planning process should be more scientific and with a better use of operational research tools considering the selection of the customers under contracts, the duration of the contracts, the freight, and the container imbalances of these contracts are basic factors for the carrier's yield. This work aims to develop a decision support system based on a linear programming model to generate the business plan for a container liner carrier, maximizing the contribution margin of its freight.

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Compartmental epidemiological models have been developed since the 1920s and successfully applied to study the propagation of infectious diseases. Besides, due to their structure, in the 1960s an interesting version of these models was developed to clarify some aspects of rumor propagation, considering that spreading an infectious disease or disseminating information is analogous phenomena. Here, in an analogy with the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) epidemiological model, the ISS (Ignorant-Spreader-Stifler) rumor spreading model is studied. By using concepts from the Dynamical Systems Theory, stability of equilibrium points is established, according to propagation parameters and initial conditions. Some numerical experiments are conducted in order to validate the model.

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Background: The tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) plant is both an economically important food crop and an ideal dicot model to investigate various physiological phenomena not possible in Arabidopsis thaliana. Due to the great diversity of tomato cultivars used by the research community, it is often difficult to reliably compare phenotypes. The lack of tomato developmental mutants in a single genetic background prevents the stacking of mutations to facilitate analysis of double and multiple mutants, often required for elucidating developmental pathways. Results: We took advantage of the small size and rapid life cycle of the tomato cultivar Micro-Tom (MT) to create near-isogenic lines (NILs) by introgressing a suite of hormonal and photomorphogenetic mutations (altered sensitivity or endogenous levels of auxin, ethylene, abscisic acid, gibberellin, brassinosteroid, and light response) into this genetic background. To demonstrate the usefulness of this collection, we compared developmental traits between the produced NILs. All expected mutant phenotypes were expressed in the NILs. We also created NILs harboring the wild type alleles for dwarf, self-pruning and uniform fruit, which are mutations characteristic of MT. This amplified both the applications of the mutant collection presented here and of MT as a genetic model system. Conclusions: The community resource presented here is a useful toolkit for plant research, particularly for future studies in plant development, which will require the simultaneous observation of the effect of various hormones, signaling pathways and crosstalk.

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Macro- and microarrays are well-established technologies to determine gene functions through repeated measurements of transcript abundance. We constructed a chicken skeletal muscle-associated array based on a muscle-specific EST database, which was used to generate a tissue expression dataset of similar to 4500 chicken genes across 5 adult tissues (skeletal muscle, heart, liver, brain, and skin). Only a small number of ESTs were sufficiently well characterized by BLAST searches to determine their probable cellular functions. Evidence of a particular tissue-characteristic expression can be considered an indication that the transcript is likely to be functionally significant. The skeletal muscle macroarray platform was first used to search for evidence of tissue-specific expression, focusing on the biological function of genes/transcripts, since gene expression profiles generated across tissues were found to be reliable and consistent. Hierarchical clustering analysis revealed consistent clustering among genes assigned to 'developmental growth', such as the ontology genes and germ layers. Accuracy of the expression data was supported by comparing information from known transcripts and tissue from which the transcript was derived with macroarray data. Hybridization assays resulted in consistent tissue expression profile, which will be useful to dissect tissue-regulatory networks and to predict functions of novel genes identified after extensive sequencing of the genomes of model organisms. Screening our skeletal-muscle platform using 5 chicken adult tissues allowed us identifying 43 'tissue-specific' transcripts, and 112 co-expressed uncharacterized transcripts with 62 putative motifs. This platform also represents an important tool for functional investigation of novel genes; to determine expression pattern according to developmental stages; to evaluate differences in muscular growth potential between chicken lines, and to identify tissue-specific genes.

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Background: Francisella tularensis causes severe pulmonary disease, and nasal vaccination could be the ideal measure to effectively prevent it. Nevertheless, the efficacy of this type of vaccine is influenced by the lack of an effective mucosal adjuvant. Methodology/Principal Findings: Mice were immunized via the nasal route with lipopolysaccharide isolated from F. tularensis and neisserial recombinant PorB as an adjuvant candidate. Then, mice were challenged via the same route with the F. tularensis attenuated live vaccine strain (LVS). Mouse survival and analysis of a number of immune parameters were conducted following intranasal challenge. Vaccination induced a systemic antibody response and 70% of mice were protected from challenge as showed by their improved survival and weight regain. Lungs from mice recovering from infection presented prominent lymphoid aggregates in peribronchial and perivascular areas, consistent with the location of bronchus-associated lymphoid tissue (BALT). BALT areas contained proliferating B and T cells, germinal centers, T cell infiltrates, dendritic cells (DCs). We also observed local production of antibody generating cells and homeostatic chemokines in BALT areas. Conclusions: These data indicate that PorB might be an optimal adjuvant candidate for improving the protective effect of F. tularensis antigens. The presence of BALT induced after intranasal challenge in vaccinated mice might play a role in regulation of local immunity and long-term protection, but more work is needed to elucidate mechanisms that lead to its formation.

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Baccharis dracunculifolia DC (Asteraceae) is a Brazilian medicinal plant popularly used for its antiulcer and anti-inflammatory properties. This plant is the main botanical source of Brazilian green propolis, a natural product incorporated into food and beverages to improve health. The present study aimed to investigate the chemical profile and intestinal anti-inflammatory activity of B. dracunculifolia extract on experimental ulcerative colitis induced by trinitrobenzenosulfonic acid (TNBS). Colonic damage was evaluated macroscopically and biochemically through its evaluation of glutathione content and its myeloperoxidase (MPO) and alkaline phosphatase activities. Additional in vitro experiments were performed in order to test the antioxidant activity by inhibition of induced lipid peroxidation in the rat brain membrane. Phytochemical analysis was performed by HPLC using authentic standards. The administration of plant extract (5 and 50 mgkg(-1)) significantly attenuated the colonic damage induced by TNBS as evidenced both macroscopically and biochemically. This beneficial effect can be associated with an improvement in the colonic oxidative status, since plant extract prevented glutathione depletion, inhibited lipid peroxidation and reduced MPO activity. Caffeic acid, p-coumaric acid, aromadendrin-4-O-methyl ether, 3-prenyl-p-coumaric acid, 3,5-diprenyl-p-coumaric acid and baccharin were detected in the plant extract.

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Background: Since successful treatment of superficial bladder cancer with BCG requires proper induction of Th1 immunity, we have developed a rBCG-S1PT strain that induced a stronger cellular immune response than BCG. This preclinical study was designed to compare the modulatory effects of BCG and rBCG-S1PT on bladder TNF-alpha and IL-10 expression and to evaluate antitumour activity. Methods: For Experiment I, the MB49 bladder cancer cell line was used in C57BL/6 mice. Chemical cauterization of the bladder was performed to promote intravesical tumor implantation. Mice were treated by intravesical instillation with BCG, rBCG-S1PT or PBS once a week for four weeks. After 35 days the bladders were removed and weighed. TNF-

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Background: Genome wide association studies (GWAS) are becoming the approach of choice to identify genetic determinants of complex phenotypes and common diseases. The astonishing amount of generated data and the use of distinct genotyping platforms with variable genomic coverage are still analytical challenges. Imputation algorithms combine directly genotyped markers information with haplotypic structure for the population of interest for the inference of a badly genotyped or missing marker and are considered a near zero cost approach to allow the comparison and combination of data generated in different studies. Several reports stated that imputed markers have an overall acceptable accuracy but no published report has performed a pair wise comparison of imputed and empiric association statistics of a complete set of GWAS markers. Results: In this report we identified a total of 73 imputed markers that yielded a nominally statistically significant association at P < 10(-5) for type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and compared them with results obtained based on empirical allelic frequencies. Interestingly, despite their overall high correlation, association statistics based on imputed frequencies were discordant in 35 of the 73 (47%) associated markers, considerably inflating the type I error rate of imputed markers. We comprehensively tested several quality thresholds, the haplotypic structure underlying imputed markers and the use of flanking markers as predictors of inaccurate association statistics derived from imputed markers. Conclusions: Our results suggest that association statistics from imputed markers showing specific MAF (Minor Allele Frequencies) range, located in weak linkage disequilibrium blocks or strongly deviating from local patterns of association are prone to have inflated false positive association signals. The present study highlights the potential of imputation procedures and proposes simple procedures for selecting the best imputed markers for follow-up genotyping studies.

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Background Tuberculosis clusters in families may be due to increased household exposure, shared genetic factors, or both. Household contact studies are useful to control exposure because socioeconomic and environmental conditions are similar to all subjects, allowing the evaluation of the contribution of relatedness to disease development. Methods In this study, the familial aggregation of tuberculosis using relatedness and a specific inherited marker (HLA-DRB1) was evaluated. Fifty families, which had at least two cases of tuberculosis diagnosed within the past 5 years, were selected from a cohort of tuberculosis carried out in Recife, Brazil. The first case diagnosed was considered to be a primary case. The secondary attack rate of tuberculosis in household contacts was estimated according to the degree of relatedness. The relative risk of having tuberculosis based on the degree of relatedness household and the population attributable fraction to relatedness were also estimated. HLA-DRB1 typing and attributable etiologic/preventive fractions were calculated among sick and healthy household contacts. Results Compared to unrelated contacts, the relative risk for tuberculosis adjusted for age was 1.38 (95% CI 0.86 to 2.21). Relatedness contributed 23% to the development of tuberculosis at the population levels. The HLA-DRB1*04 allele group (OR = 2.44; p =0.0324; etiologic fraction =0.15) was overrepresented and the DRB1*15 allele group (OR=0.48; p=0.0488; protective fraction=0.19) was underrepresented among household contacts exhibiting tuberculosis. The presence of DRB1 shared alleles between primary cases and their contacts was a risk factor for tuberculosis (p=0.0281). Conclusion This household contact model together with the utilisation of two genetic variables permitted the evaluation of genetic factors contributing towards tuberculosis development.

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Ion channels are pores formed by proteins and responsible for carrying ion fluxes through cellular membranes. The ion channels can assume conformational states thereby controlling ion flow. Physically, the conformational transitions from one state to another are associated with energy barriers between them and are dependent on stimulus, such as, electrical field, ligands, second messengers, etc. Several models have been proposed to describe the kinetics of ion channels. The classical Markovian model assumes that a future transition is independent of the time that the ion channel stayed in a previous state. Others models as the fractal and the chaotic assume that the rate of transitions between the states depend on the time that the ionic channel stayed in a previous state. For the calcium activated potassium channels of Leydig cells the R/S Hurst analysis has indicated that the channels are long-term correlated with a Hurst coefficient H around 0.7, showing a persistent memory in this kinetic. Here, we applied the R/S analysis to the opening and closing dwell time series obtained from simulated data from a chaotic model proposed by L. Liebovitch and T. Toth [J. Theor. Biol. 148, 243 (1991)] and we show that this chaotic model or any model that treats the set of channel openings and closings as independent events is inadequate to describe the long-term correlation (memory) already described for the experimental data. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

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PURPOSE most people with mental disorders receive treatment in primary care. The charts developed by the Dartmouth Primary Care Cooperative Research Network (COOP) and the World Organization of National Colleges, Academies, and Academic Associations of General Practitioners/Family Physicians (WONCA) have not yet been evaluated as a screen for these disorders, using a structured psychiatric interview by an expert or considering diagnoses other than depression. We evaluated the validity and feasibility of the COOP/WONCA Charts as a mental disorders screen by comparing them both with other questionnaires previously validated and with the assessment of a mental health specialist using a structured diagnostic interview. METHODS We trained community health workers and nurse assistants working in a collaborative mental health care model to administer the COOP/WONCA Charts, the 20-item Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20), and the World Health Organization Five Well-Being Index (WHO-5) to 120 primary care patients. A psychiatrist blinded to the patients' results on these questionnaires administered the SCID, or Structured Clinical Interview for the DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition). RESULTS The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was at least 0.80 for single items, a 3-item combination, and the total score of the COOP/WONCA Charts, as well as for the SRQ-20 and the WHO-5, for screening both for all mental disorders and for depressive disorders. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of these measures ranged between 0.77 and 0.92. Community health workers and nurse assistants rated the understandability, ease of use, and clinical relevance of all 3 questionnaires as satisfactory. CONCLUSIONS One-time assessment of patients with the COOP/WONCA Charts is a valid and feasible option for screening for mental disorders by primary care teams.

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Background: In women with breast cancer submitted to neoadjuvant chemotherapy based in doxorubicin, tumor expression of groups of three genes (PRSS11, MTSS1, CLPTM1 and PRSS11, MTSS1, SMYD2) have classified them as responsive or resistant. We have investigated whether expression of these trios of genes could predict mammary carcinoma response in dogs and whether tumor slices, which maintain epithelial-mesenchymal interactions, could be used to evaluate drug response in vitro. Methods: Tumors from 38 dogs were sliced and cultured with or without doxorubicin 1 mu M for 24 h. Tumor cells were counted by two observers to establish a percentage variation in cell number, between slices. Based on these results, a reduction in cell number between treated and control samples >= 21.7%, arbitrarily classified samples, as drug responsive. Tumor expression of PRSS11, MTSS1, CLPTM1 and SMYD2, was evaluated by real time PCR. Relative expression results were then transformed to their natural logarithm values, which were spatially disposed according to the expression of trios of genes, comprising PRSS11, MTSS1, CLPTM1 and PRSS11, MTSS1, SMYD2. Fisher linear discrimination test was used to generate a separation plane between responsive and non-responsive tumors. Results: Culture of tumor slices for 24 h was feasible. Nine samples were considered responsive and 29 non-responsive to doxorubicin, considering the pre-established cut-off value of cell number reduction = 21.7%, between doxorubicin treated and control samples. Relative gene expression was evaluated and tumor samples were then spatially distributed according to the expression of the trios of genes: PRSS11, MTSS1, CLPTM1 and PRSS11, MTSS1, SMYD2. A separation plane was generated. However, no clear separation between responsive and non-responsive samples could be observed. Conclusion: Three-dimensional distribution of samples according to the expression of the trios of genes PRSS11, MTSS1, CLPTM1 and PRSS11, MTSS1, SMYD2 could not predict doxorubicin in vitro responsiveness. Short term culture of mammary gland cancer slices may be an interesting model to evaluate chemotherapy activity.

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Marfan syndrome is an autosomal dominant disease of connective tissue caused by mutations in the fibrillin-1 encoding gene FBN1. Patients present cardiovascular, ocular and skeletal manifestations, and although being fully penetrant, MFS is characterized by a wide clinical variability both within and between families. Here we describe a new mouse model of MFS that recapitulates the clinical heterogeneity of the syndrome in humans. Heterozygotes for the mutant Fbn1 allele mg Delta(loxPneo), carrying the same internal deletion of exons 19-24 as the mg Delta mouse model, present defective microfibrillar deposition, emphysema, deterioration of aortic wall and kyphosis. However, the onset of a clinical phenotypes is earlier in the 129/Sv than in C57BL/6 background, indicating the existence of genetic modifiers of MFS between these two mouse strains. In addition, we characterized a wide clinical variability within the 129/Sv congenic heterozygotes, suggesting involvement of epigenetic factors in disease severity. Finally, we show a strong negative correlation between overall levels of Fbn1 expression and the severity of the phenotypes, corroborating the suggested protective role of normal fibrillin-1 in MFS pathogenesis, and supporting the development of therapies based on increasing Fbn1 expression.

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Background: In areas with limited structure in place for microscopy diagnosis, rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) have been demonstrated to be effective. Method: The cost-effectiveness of the Optimal (R) and thick smear microscopy was estimated and compared. Data were collected on remote areas of 12 municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon. Data sources included the National Malaria Control Programme of the Ministry of Health, the National Healthcare System reimbursement table, hospitalization records, primary data collected from the municipalities, and scientific literature. The perspective was that of the Brazilian public health system, the analytical horizon was from the start of fever until the diagnostic results provided to patient and the temporal reference was that of year 2006. The results were expressed in costs per adequately diagnosed cases in 2006 U. S. dollars. Sensitivity analysis was performed considering key model parameters. Results: In the case base scenario, considering 92% and 95% sensitivity for thick smear microscopy to Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, respectively, and 100% specificity for both species, thick smear microscopy is more costly and more effective, with an incremental cost estimated at US$ 549.9 per adequately diagnosed case. In sensitivity analysis, when sensitivity and specificity of microscopy for P. vivax were 0.90 and 0.98, respectively, and when its sensitivity for P. falciparum was 0.83, the RDT was more cost-effective than microscopy. Conclusion: Microscopy is more cost-effective than OptiMal (R) in these remote areas if high accuracy of microscopy is maintained in the field. Decision regarding use of rapid tests for diagnosis of malaria in these areas depends on current microscopy accuracy in the field.