Introduction to Multi-Agent Simulation

When designing systems that are complex, dynamic and stochastic in nature, simulation is generally recognised as one of the best design support technologies, and a valuable aid in the strategic and tactical decision making process. A simulation model consists of a set of rules that define how a system changes over time, given its current state. Unlike analytical models, a simulation model is not solved but is run and the changes of system states can be observed at any point in time. This provides an insight into system dynamics rather than just predicting the output of a system based on specific inputs. Simulation is not a decision making tool but a decision support tool, allowing better informed decisions to be made. Due to the complexity of the real world, a simulation model can only be an approximation of the target system. The essence of the art of simulation modelling is abstraction and simplification. Only those characteristics that are important for the study and analysis of the target system should be included in the simulation model. The purpose of simulation is either to better understand the operation of a target system, or to make predictions about a target system’s performance. It can be viewed as an artificial white-room which allows one to gain insight but also to test new theories and practices without disrupting the daily routine of the focal organisation. What you can expect to gain from a simulation study is very well summarised by FIRMA (2000). His idea is that if the theory that has been framed about the target system holds, and if this theory has been adequately translated into a computer model this would allow you to answer some of the following questions: · Which kind of behaviour can be expected under arbitrarily given parameter combinations and initial conditions? · Which kind of behaviour will a given target system display in the future? · Which state will the target system reach in the future? The required accuracy of the simulation model very much depends on the type of question one is trying to answer. In order to be able to respond to the first question the simulation model needs to be an explanatory model. This requires less data accuracy. In comparison, the simulation model required to answer the latter two questions has to be predictive in nature and therefore needs highly accurate input data to achieve credible outputs. These predictions involve showing trends, rather than giving precise and absolute predictions of the target system performance. The numerical results of a simulation experiment on their own are most often not very useful and need to be rigorously analysed with statistical methods. These results then need to be considered in the context of the real system and interpreted in a qualitative way to make meaningful recommendations or compile best practice guidelines. One needs a good working knowledge about the behaviour of the real system to be able to fully exploit the understanding gained from simulation experiments. The goal of this chapter is to brace the newcomer to the topic of what we think is a valuable asset to the toolset of analysts and decision makers. We will give you a summary of information we have gathered from the literature and of the experiences that we have made first hand during the last five years, whilst obtaining a better understanding of this exciting technology. We hope that this will help you to avoid some pitfalls that we have unwittingly encountered. Section 2 is an introduction to the different types of simulation used in Operational Research and Management Science with a clear focus on agent-based simulation. In Section 3 we outline the theoretical background of multi-agent systems and their elements to prepare you for Section 4 where we discuss how to develop a multi-agent simulation model. Section 5 outlines a simple example of a multi-agent system. Section 6 provides a collection of resources for further studies and finally in Section 7 we will conclude the chapter with a short summary.

Modelação do risco de perda dentária por doença periodontal

O prognóstico da perda dentária é um dos principais problemas na prática clínica de medicina dentária. Um dos principais fatores prognósticos é a quantidade de suporte ósseo do dente, definido pela área da superfície radicular dentária intraóssea. A estimação desta grandeza tem sido realizada por diferentes metodologias de investigação com resultados heterogéneos. Neste trabalho utilizamos o método da planimetria com microtomografia para calcular a área da superfície radicular (ASR) de uma amostra de cinco dentes segundos pré-molares inferiores obtida da população portuguesa, com o objetivo final de criar um modelo estatístico para estimar a área de superfície radicular intraóssea a partir de indicadores clínicos da perda óssea. Por fim propomos um método para aplicar os resultados na prática. Os dados referentes à área da superfície radicular, comprimento total do dente (CT) e dimensão mésio-distal máxima da coroa (MDeq) serviram para estabelecer as relações estatísticas entre variáveis e definir uma distribuição normal multivariada. Por fim foi criada uma amostra de 37 observações simuladas a partir da distribuição normal multivariada definida e estatisticamente idênticas aos dados da amostra de cinco dentes. Foram ajustados cinco modelos lineares generalizados aos dados simulados. O modelo estatístico foi selecionado segundo os critérios de ajustamento, preditibilidade, potência estatística, acurácia dos parâmetros e da perda de informação, e validado pela análise gráfica de resíduos. Apoiados nos resultados propomos um método em três fases para estimação área de superfície radicular perdida/remanescente. Na primeira fase usamos o modelo estatístico para estimar a área de superfície radicular, na segunda estimamos a proporção (decis) de raiz intraóssea usando uma régua de Schei adaptada e na terceira multiplicamos o valor obtido na primeira fase por um coeficiente que representa a proporção de raiz perdida (ASRp) ou da raiz remanescente (ASRr) para o decil estimado na segunda fase. O ponto forte deste estudo foi a aplicação de metodologia estatística validada para operacionalizar dados clínicos na estimação de suporte ósseo perdido. Como pontos fracos consideramos a aplicação destes resultados apenas aos segundos pré-molares mandibulares e a falta de validação clínica.

Green supply chain management practices and firm performance: evidence from Finland

In order to address the increasing stakeholder requirements for environmentally sustainable products and processes, firms often need the participation of their supply chain partners. Green supply chain management has emerged as a set of managerial practices that integrate environmental issues into supply chain management. If implemented successfully, green supply chain management can be a way to achieve competitive advantage while enhancing the environmental sustainability of the firm. The overall purpose of this dissertation is to contribute to the discussion on green supply chain management practices from the perspective of their drivers and performance implications. The theoretical background arises from the literature on competitive strategy, firm performance and green supply chain management. The research questions are addressed by analysing firm-level data from manufacturing, trading and logistics firms operating in Finland. The empirical data comes from two consecutive Finland State of Logistics surveys in 2012 and 2014, combined with financial reporting data from external databases. The data is analysed with multiple statistical methods. First, the thesis contributes to the discussion of the drivers of GSCM practices. To enhance the understanding of the relationship between competitive strategy and GSCM practices, a conceptual tool to describe generic competitive strategy approaches was developed. The findings suggest that firms pursuing marketing differentiation are more likely to be able to compete by having only small environmental effects and by adopting a more advanced form of external green supply chain management, such as a combination of strong environmental collaboration and the increased environmental monitoring of suppliers. Furthermore, customer requirements for environmental sustainability are found to be an important driver in the implementation of internal GSCM practices. Firms can respond to this customer pressure by passing environmental requirements on to their suppliers, either through environmental collaboration or environmental monitoring. Second, this thesis adds value to the existing literature on the effects of green supply chain management practices on firm performance. The thesis provides support for the idea that there is a positive relationship between GSCM practices and firm performance and enhances the understanding of how different types of GSCM practices are related to 1) financial, 2) operational and 3) environmental performance in manufacturing and logistics. The empirical results suggest that while internal GSCM practices have the strongest effect on environmentalperformance, environmental collaboration with customers seems to be the most effective way to improve financial performance. In terms of operational performance, the findings were more mixed, suggesting that the operational performance of firms is more likely to be affected by firm characteristics than by the choices they make regarding their environmental collaboration. This thesis is also one of the first attempts to empirically analyse the relationship between GSCM practices and performance among logistics service providers. The findings also have managerial relevance. Management, especially in manufacturing and logistics industries, may benefit by gaining knowledge about which types of GSCM practice could provide the largest benefits in terms of different performance dimensions. This thesis also has implications for policy-makers and regulators regarding how to promote environmentally friendly activities among 1) manufacturing; 2) trading; and 3) logistics firms.

Statistical Analysis of Text Summarization Evaluation

This dissertation applies statistical methods to the evaluation of automatic summarization using data from the Text Analysis Conferences in 2008-2011. Several aspects of the evaluation framework itself are studied, including the statistical testing used to determine significant differences, the assessors, and the design of the experiment. In addition, a family of evaluation metrics is developed to predict the score an automatically generated summary would receive from a human judge and its results are demonstrated at the Text Analysis Conference. Finally, variations on the evaluation framework are studied and their relative merits considered. An over-arching theme of this dissertation is the application of standard statistical methods to data that does not conform to the usual testing assumptions.

A Visual Analytics Approach to Comparing Cohorts of Event Sequences

Sequences of timestamped events are currently being generated across nearly every domain of data analytics, from e-commerce web logging to electronic health records used by doctors and medical researchers. Every day, this data type is reviewed by humans who apply statistical tests, hoping to learn everything they can about how these processes work, why they break, and how they can be improved upon. To further uncover how these processes work the way they do, researchers often compare two groups, or cohorts, of event sequences to find the differences and similarities between outcomes and processes. With temporal event sequence data, this task is complex because of the variety of ways single events and sequences of events can differ between the two cohorts of records: the structure of the event sequences (e.g., event order, co-occurring events, or frequencies of events), the attributes about the events and records (e.g., gender of a patient), or metrics about the timestamps themselves (e.g., duration of an event). Running statistical tests to cover all these cases and determining which results are significant becomes cumbersome. Current visual analytics tools for comparing groups of event sequences emphasize a purely statistical or purely visual approach for comparison. Visual analytics tools leverage humans' ability to easily see patterns and anomalies that they were not expecting, but is limited by uncertainty in findings. Statistical tools emphasize finding significant differences in the data, but often requires researchers have a concrete question and doesn't facilitate more general exploration of the data. Combining visual analytics tools with statistical methods leverages the benefits of both approaches for quicker and easier insight discovery. Integrating statistics into a visualization tool presents many challenges on the frontend (e.g., displaying the results of many different metrics concisely) and in the backend (e.g., scalability challenges with running various metrics on multi-dimensional data at once). I begin by exploring the problem of comparing cohorts of event sequences and understanding the questions that analysts commonly ask in this task. From there, I demonstrate that combining automated statistics with an interactive user interface amplifies the benefits of both types of tools, thereby enabling analysts to conduct quicker and easier data exploration, hypothesis generation, and insight discovery. The direct contributions of this dissertation are: (1) a taxonomy of metrics for comparing cohorts of temporal event sequences, (2) a statistical framework for exploratory data analysis with a method I refer to as high-volume hypothesis testing (HVHT), (3) a family of visualizations and guidelines for interaction techniques that are useful for understanding and parsing the results, and (4) a user study, five long-term case studies, and five short-term case studies which demonstrate the utility and impact of these methods in various domains: four in the medical domain, one in web log analysis, two in education, and one each in social networks, sports analytics, and security. My dissertation contributes an understanding of how cohorts of temporal event sequences are commonly compared and the difficulties associated with applying and parsing the results of these metrics. It also contributes a set of visualizations, algorithms, and design guidelines for balancing automated statistics with user-driven analysis to guide users to significant, distinguishing features between cohorts. This work opens avenues for future research in comparing two or more groups of temporal event sequences, opening traditional machine learning and data mining techniques to user interaction, and extending the principles found in this dissertation to data types beyond temporal event sequences.

Abordagem multimetodológica do impacto da mentoria e relações de ajuda no processo informal de employee branding: o efeito de marca de empregado

O processo de employee branding tem demonstrado promover e reforçar o contrato psicológico entre os colaboradores e a organização, pelo incremento e potenciação do sentimento de comprometimento e lealdade do colaborador de acordo com Miles e Mangold. Esta investigação foca-se no estudo do impacto da mentoria e relações de ajuda no processo de employee branding, numa visão integrada da gestão de recursos humanos e do comportamento organizacional, com base nas relações de troca do marketing do relacionamento numa perspetiva da gestão por competências e foco nas Pessoas. Com a introdução da nova variável (mentoria e relações de ajuda) esta investigação, ao enriquecer e incrementar o processo de employee branding de Miles e Mangold proposto em 2004 e 2005, apresenta a construção de um instrumento de diagnóstico do inovador processo de Efeito de Marca de Empregado. A investigação decorreu em 30 organizações, com um total de 725 questionários, que permitiu a validação e fiabilidade do instrumento, bem como demonstra através de métodos estatísticos a influência das ações de mentoria e relações de ajuda e da atuação das relações interpessoais que promovem o processo employee branding. Se o processo de employee branding já incrementava os resultados organizacionais, com esta investigação, pode-se afirmar que o processo de Efeito de Marca de Empregado não só incrementa como também impulsiona a imagem de marca da organização pela atuação dinâmica e catalisadora das relações interpessoais dos seus colaboradores, dentro e fora da organização, com a introdução e promoção de ações mentoria e relações de ajuda entre chefias e chefiados; ABSTRACT: The employee branding process has shown as to promote and strengthen the psychological contract between employees and the organization, by increasing and maximizing the sense of employees’ commitment and loyalty, according with Miles and Mangold. This research focuses on the impact of mentoring and helping relationships in the employee branding process, in an integrated view of human resources management and organizational behavior, based on the exchange ratio of the relationship marketing in a perspective of management by competencies and people focused approach. With the introduction of the new variable (mentoring and helping relationships), this research enriches and enhances the Miles and Mangold employee branding process proposed in 2004 and 2005 and presents the construction of an diagnostic instrument for the innovative process of Employee Brand Effect. This research took place in 30 organizations with a total of 725 questionnaires, which allowed the validation and reliability of the instrument and the evidence through statistical methods of the influence of mentoring and helping relationships actions and of the interaction of interpersonal relationships promoting the employee branding process. If the employee branding process was already boosting organizational results with this research, it can be stated that the Employee Brand Effect process not only increases, but also boosts the organization’s brand image by the actuation of the dynamics of employees’ interpersonal relationships, inside and outside the organization, with the introduction and promotion of mentoring and helping relationships actions between leaders and followers.

Health professionals’ and patients’ perspectives on pelvic floor muscle training adherence : 2011 ICS State-of-the-Science Seminar research paper IV of IV

Aims There is scant information on pelvic floor muscle training (PFMT) adherence barriers and facilitators. A web-based survey was conducted (1) to investigate whether responses from health professionals and the public broadly reflected findings in the literature, (2) if responses differed between the two groups, and (3) to identify new research directions. Methods Health professional and public surveys were posted on the ICS website. PFMT adherence barriers and facilitators were divided into four categories: physical/condition, patient, therapy, and social-economic. Responses were analyzed using descriptive statistics from quantitative data and thematic data analysis for qualitative data. Results Five hundred and fifteen health professionals and 51 public respondents participated. Both cohorts felt “patient-related factors” constituted the most important adherence barrier, but differed in their rankings of short- and long-term barriers. Health professionals rated “patient-related” and the public “therapy-related” factors as the most important adherence facilitator. Both ranked “perception of PFMT benefit” as the most important long-term facilitator. Contrary to published findings, symptom severity was not ranked highly. Neither cohort felt the barriers nor facilitators differed according to PFM condition (urinary/faecal incontinence, pelvic organ prolapse, pelvic pain); however, a large number of health professionals felt differences existed across age, gender, and ethnicity. Half of respondents in both cohorts felt research barriers and facilitators differed from those in clinical practice. Conclusions An emphasis on “patient-related” factors, ahead of “condition-specific” and “therapy-related,” affecting PFMT adherence barriers was evident. Health professionals need to be aware of the importance of long-term patient perception of PFMT benefits and consider enabling strategies.

Detección, diagnóstico e intervención temprana en niños menores de tres años de alto riesgo biológico y ambiental pertenecientes a la comunidad indígena de Salasaca provincia de Tungurahua

The main objective on this research is to evaluate and detect the profile of development and possible deviations that expouses a high biological, social and / or environmental risk on Indigenous children under three years old who attend to Child Centers of Good Living in the Indigenous Community of Salasaca - Tungurahua. The study was conducted with 90 children whom attend these centers. The Bayley Scale for Infant Development III (Bayley Scales for Infant Development - BSID) was applied to the study, for it was a standardized international test for scientific research on child development. It values the state of development and identifies deficits on children from 0 to 42 months old. Two types of questionnaires were applied to the Technical Assistants Child Development and to the Daily care Child Centers. Another querionary was used for the mothers of this centers in order to establish the level of knowledge over some factors, which may influence on child development during early childhood, as well as the parenting patterns characteristic of the indigenous community of Salasaca- Tungurahua. Analytical, synthetical and statistical methods for results interpretation were used for the Theoretical framework of this work. The scope of this research is the socio educative type. It benefits generally to all society particularly to children on infant stage and to the Indigenous Community of Salasaca...

Keeping Variables within Bounds: Using Information between Observations

This research develops an econometric framework to analyze time series processes with bounds. The framework is general enough that it can incorporate several different kinds of bounding information that constrain continuous-time stochastic processes between discretely-sampled observations. It applies to situations in which the process is known to remain within an interval between observations, by way of either a known constraint or through the observation of extreme realizations of the process. The main statistical technique employs the theory of maximum likelihood estimation. This approach leads to the development of the asymptotic distribution theory for the estimation of the parameters in bounded diffusion models. The results of this analysis present several implications for empirical research. The advantages are realized in the form of efficiency gains, bias reduction and in the flexibility of model specification. A bias arises in the presence of bounding information that is ignored, while it is mitigated within this framework. An efficiency gain arises, in the sense that the statistical methods make use of conditioning information, as revealed by the bounds. Further, the specification of an econometric model can be uncoupled from the restriction to the bounds, leaving the researcher free to model the process near the bound in a way that avoids bias from misspecification. One byproduct of the improvements in model specification is that the more precise model estimation exposes other sources of misspecification. Some processes reveal themselves to be unlikely candidates for a given diffusion model, once the observations are analyzed in combination with the bounding information. A closer inspection of the theoretical foundation behind diffusion models leads to a more general specification of the model. This approach is used to produce a set of algorithms to make the model computationally feasible and more widely applicable. Finally, the modeling framework is applied to a series of interest rates, which, for several years, have been constrained by the lower bound of zero. The estimates from a series of diffusion models suggest a substantial difference in estimation results between models that ignore bounds and the framework that takes bounding information into consideration.

Health professionals’ and patients’ perspectives on pelvic floor muscle training adherence : 2011 ICS State-of-the-Science Seminar research paper IV of IV

Aims There is scant information on pelvic floor muscle training (PFMT) adherence barriers and facilitators. A web-based survey was conducted (1) to investigate whether responses from health professionals and the public broadly reflected findings in the literature, (2) if responses differed between the two groups, and (3) to identify new research directions. Methods Health professional and public surveys were posted on the ICS website. PFMT adherence barriers and facilitators were divided into four categories: physical/condition, patient, therapy, and social-economic. Responses were analyzed using descriptive statistics from quantitative data and thematic data analysis for qualitative data. Results Five hundred and fifteen health professionals and 51 public respondents participated. Both cohorts felt “patient-related factors” constituted the most important adherence barrier, but differed in their rankings of short- and long-term barriers. Health professionals rated “patient-related” and the public “therapy-related” factors as the most important adherence facilitator. Both ranked “perception of PFMT benefit” as the most important long-term facilitator. Contrary to published findings, symptom severity was not ranked highly. Neither cohort felt the barriers nor facilitators differed according to PFM condition (urinary/faecal incontinence, pelvic organ prolapse, pelvic pain); however, a large number of health professionals felt differences existed across age, gender, and ethnicity. Half of respondents in both cohorts felt research barriers and facilitators differed from those in clinical practice. Conclusions An emphasis on “patient-related” factors, ahead of “condition-specific” and “therapy-related,” affecting PFMT adherence barriers was evident. Health professionals need to be aware of the importance of long-term patient perception of PFMT benefits and consider enabling strategies.

Impedancias basales registradas durante la denervación renal por radiofrecuencia en pacientes con hipertensión arterial resistente

Objetivo: Determinar diferencias en las impedancias basales registradas durante los procedimientos de denervación renal por radiofrecuencia de los pacientes sometidos a este procedimiento en la Fundación Cardioinfantil de Bogotá durante los años 2012 a 2015. Materiales y métodos: Estudio observacional, analítico de corte retrospectivo, donde se analizaron todas las impedancias basales medidas durante los procedimientos de denervación renal, buscando diferencias significativas entre los segmentos de las arterias intervenidas, estratificados en proximal, medio distal y superior, lateral, inferior u ostial. Con seguimiento a los pacientes a tres, seis y doce meses en cuanto a presión arterial de consultorio. Resultados: Se evaluaron 150 puntos de denervación renal exitosos, correspondientes a 23 arterias renales de 11 procedimientos. La mediana de edad fue 56 años. Al realizar un modelo de regresión lineal no se encontró ninguna diferencia estadísticamente significativa entre las impedancias de ninguno de los segmentos de las arterias ni sitios anatómicos. Se documentó disminución de presión arterial sistólica a tres meses, seis meses y doce meses de 14 mmHg (RIQ 10-33mmHg), 21 mmHg (RIQ 12-42mmHg) y 19 mmHg (RIQ 11-42 mmHg) respectivamente

Prevalencia e incidencia de cáncer en habitantes de Sibaté, y georeferenciación de casos 2010-2014

Introducción: El Cáncer es prevenible en algunos casos, si se evita la exposición a sustancias cancerígenas en el medio ambiente. En Colombia, Cundinamarca es uno de los departamentos con mayores incrementos en la tasa de mortalidad y en el municipio de Sibaté, habitantes han manifestado preocupación por el incremento de la enfermedad. En el campo de la salud ambiental mundial, la georreferenciación aplicada al estudio de fenómenos en salud, ha tenido éxito con resultados válidos. El estudio propuso usar herramientas de información geográfica, para generar análisis de tiempo y espacio que hicieran visible el comportamiento del cáncer en Sibaté y sustentaran hipótesis de influencias ambientales sobre concentraciones de casos. Objetivo: Obtener incidencia y prevalencia de casos de cáncer en habitantes de Sibaté y georreferenciar los casos en un periodo de 5 años, con base en indagación de registros. Metodología: Estudio exploratorio descriptivo de corte transversal,sobre todos los diagnósticos de cáncer entre los años 2010 a 2014, encontrados en los archivos de la Secretaria de Salud municipal. Se incluyeron unicamente quienes tuvieron residencia permanente en el municipio y fueron diagnosticados con cáncer entre los años de 2010 a 2104. Sobre cada caso se obtuvo género, edad, estrato socioeconómico, nivel académico, ocupación y estado civil. Para el análisis de tiempo se usó la fecha de diagnóstico y para el análisis de espacio, la dirección de residencia, tipo de cáncer y coordenada geográfica. Se generaron coordenadas geográficas con un equipo GPS Garmin y se crearon mapas con los puntos de la ubicación de las viviendas de los pacientes. Se proceso la información, con Epi Info 7 Resultados: Se encontraron 107 casos de cáncer registrados en la Secretaria de Salud de Sibaté, 66 mujeres, 41 hombres. Sin división de género, el 30.93% de la población presento cáncer del sistema reproductor, el 18,56% digestivo y el 17,53% tegumentario. Se presentaron 2 grandes casos de agrupaciones espaciales en el territorio estudiado, una en el Barrio Pablo Neruda con 12 (21,05%) casos y en el casco Urbano de Sibaté con 38 (66,67%) casos. Conclusión: Se corroboro que el análisis geográfico con variables espacio temporales y de exposición, puede ser la herramienta para generar hipótesis sobre asociaciones de casos de cáncer con factores ambientales.

Prevalencia de morbilidad osteomuscular en una empresa de servicios de seguridad electrónica en Bogotá, 2013

Introducción: actualmente los trastornos músculo esqueléticos (TME) han sido reconocidos como la principal causa de morbilidad en el trabajo, dado el porcentaje de ausentismo laboral que representa, generando reducción en la productividad de las industrias. Una visión general de la prevalencia en TME puede conducir a métodos de prevención de morbilidad adecuados para cada tipo de proceso, y así proporcionar un ambiente más seguro y confortable. Objetivo: determinar la prevalencia de síntomas osteomusculares y su relación con factores individuales y laborales en personal de una empresa dedicada a prestar servicio de seguridad electrónica en Bogotá, en el 2013. Métodos: estudio de corte transversal, desarrollado a partir de fuentes de datos secundarios de una población de 199 trabajadores, con información sociodemográfica y síntomas osteomusculares en los distintos roles laborales (administrativo, soporte y de campo) de una empresa de servicios en seguridad electrónica. Se usaron métodos estadísticos para el cálculo de proporciones, se estimaron las prevalencias osteomusculares globales, realizando comparaciones por rol laboral. La revisión de la asociación entre factores sociodemográficos y laborales con síntomas de TME se hizo a través de la prueba Chi2 de asociación o prueba exacta de Fisher. Resultados: Los segmentos que mostraron la mayor frecuencia en morbilidad de TME fueron espalda, cuello, muñecas y manos. Se encontró asociación entre dolor de hombros y brazos con la edad, OR=0,54 (IC95%=0,30-0,95) y tiempo en el cargo, OR=1,855(IC 95%=1,043-3,297); entre dolor de cuello y edad OR=0,50 (IC95%=0,27-0,90) y entre dolor de muñecas y/o manos con tiempo en el cargo, OR=1,827(IC 95%=1,032-3,235). Conclusión: Se presenta morbilidad por TME en varios segmentos, derivados de factores (individuales y laborales), ratificando la importancia de hacer intervenciones integrales de control de riesgos para su prevención.

Spatial analysis of urban violence based on emergency room data

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the spatial intensity of urban violence events using wavelet-based methods and emergency room data. METHODS: Information on victims attended at the emergency room of a public hospital in the city of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, from January 1, 2002 to January 11, 2003 were obtained from hospital records. The spatial distribution of 3,540 events was recorded and a uniform random procedure was used to allocate records with incomplete addresses. Point processes and wavelet analysis technique were used to estimate the spatial intensity, defined as the expected number of events by unit area. RESULTS: Of all georeferenced points, 59% were accidents and 40% were assaults. There is a non-homogeneous spatial distribution of the events with high concentration in two districts and three large avenues in the southern area of the city of São Paulo. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital records combined with methodological tools to estimate intensity of events are useful to study urban violence. The wavelet analysis is useful in the computation of the expected number of events and their respective confidence bands for any sub-region and, consequently, in the specification of risk estimates that could be used in decision-making processes for public policies.

Estudo da mobilização de metais e elementos traços em ambientes aquáticos do semi-árido brasileiro aplicando análises de componentes principais

The spatial and temporal retention of metals has been studied in water and sediments of the Gavião River, Anagé and Tremedal Reservoirs, located in the semi-arid region, Bahia - Brazil, in order to identify trends in the fluxes of metals from the sediments to the water column. The determination of metals was made by ICP OES and ET AAS. The application of statistical methods showed that this aquatic system presents suitable conditions to move Cd2+ and Pb2+ from the water column to the sediment.