Nonlinear measures of heart rate time series: influence of posture and controlled breathing

In this study, we investigated measures of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory in regards to heart rate variability in 27 normal control subjects in supine and standing postures, and 14 subjects in spontaneous and controlled breathing conditions. We examined minimum embedding dimension (MED), largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) and measures of nonlinearity (NL) of heart rate time series. MED quantifies the system's complexity, LLE predictability and NL, a measure of deviation from linear processes. There was a significant decrease in complexity (P<0.00001), a decrease in predictability (P<0.00001) and an increase in nonlinearity (P=0.00001) during the change from supine to standing posture. Decrease in MED, and increases in NL score and LLE in standing posture appear to be partly due to an increase in sympathetic activity of the autonomous nervous system in standing posture. An improvement in predictability during controlled breathing appears to be due to the introduction of a periodic component. (C) 2000 published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Density-wave theory of dislocations in crystals

The density-wave theory of Ramakrishnan and Yussouff is extended to provide a scheme for describing dislocations and other topological defects in crystals. Quantitative calculations are presented for the order-parameter profiles, the atomic configuration, and the free energy of a screw dislocation with Burgers vector b=(a/2, a/2, a/2) in a bcc solid. These calculations are done using a simple parametrization of the direct correlation function and a gradient expansion. It is conventional to express the free energy of the dislocation in a crystal of size R as (λb2/4π)ln(αR/‖b‖), where λ is the shear elastic constant, and α is a measure of the core energy. Our results yield for Na the value α≃1.94a/(‖c1’’‖)1/2 (≃1.85) at the freezing temperature (371 K) and α≃2.48a/(‖c1’’‖)1/2 at 271 K, where c1’’ is the curvature of the first peak of the direct correlation function c(q). Detailed results for the density distribution in the dislocation, particularly the core region, are also presented. These show that the dislocation core has a columnar character. To our knowledge, this study represents the first calculation of dislocation structure, including the core, within the framework of an order-parameter theory and incorporating thermal effects.

Models of Dispersal and Diversification

Ecology and evolutionary biology is the study of life on this planet. One of the many methods applied to answering the great diversity of questions regarding the lives and characteristics of individual organisms, is the utilization of mathematical models. Such models are used in a wide variety of ways. Some help us to reason, functioning as aids to, or substitutes for, our own fallible logic, thus making argumentation and thinking clearer. Models which help our reasoning can lead to conceptual clarification; by expressing ideas in algebraic terms, the relationship between different concepts become clearer. Other mathematical models are used to better understand yet more complicated models, or to develop mathematical tools for their analysis. Though helping us to reason and being used as tools in the craftmanship of science, many models do not tell us much about the real biological phenomena we are, at least initially, interested in. The main reason for this is that any mathematical model is a simplification of the real world, reducing the complexity and variety of interactions and idiosynchracies of individual organisms. What such models can tell us, however, both is and has been very valuable throughout the history of ecology and evolution. Minimally, a model simplifying the complex world can tell us that in principle, the patterns produced in a model could also be produced in the real world. We can never know how different a simplified mathematical representation is from the real world, but the similarity models do strive for, gives us confidence that their results could apply. This thesis deals with a variety of different models, used for different purposes. One model deals with how one can measure and analyse invasions; the expanding phase of invasive species. Earlier analyses claims to have shown that such invasions can be a regulated phenomena, that higher invasion speeds at a given point in time will lead to a reduction in speed. Two simple mathematical models show that analysis on this particular measure of invasion speed need not be evidence of regulation. In the context of dispersal evolution, two models acting as proof-of-principle are presented. Parent-offspring conflict emerges when there are different evolutionary optima for adaptive behavior for parents and offspring. We show that the evolution of dispersal distances can entail such a conflict, and that under parental control of dispersal (as, for example, in higher plants) wider dispersal kernels are optimal. We also show that dispersal homeostasis can be optimal; in a setting where dispersal decisions (to leave or stay in a natal patch) are made, strategies that divide their seeds or eggs into fractions that disperse or not, as opposed to randomized for each seed, can prevail. We also present a model of the evolution of bet-hedging strategies; evolutionary adaptations that occur despite their fitness, on average, being lower than a competing strategy. Such strategies can win in the long run because they have a reduced variance in fitness coupled with a reduction in mean fitness, and fitness is of a multiplicative nature across generations, and therefore sensitive to variability. This model is used for conceptual clarification; by developing a population genetical model with uncertain fitness and expressing genotypic variance in fitness as a product between individual level variance and correlations between individuals of a genotype. We arrive at expressions that intuitively reflect two of the main categorizations of bet-hedging strategies; conservative vs diversifying and within- vs between-generation bet hedging. In addition, this model shows that these divisions in fact are false dichotomies.

Understorey vegetation as an indicator of forest site potential in Southern Finland.

The relationship between site characteristics and understorey vegetation composition was analysed with quantitative methods, especially from the viewpoint of site quality estimation. Theoretical models were applied to an empirical data set collected from the upland forests of southern Finland comprising 104 sites dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), and 165 sites dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karsten). Site index H100 was used as an independent measure of site quality. A new model for the estimation of site quality at sites with a known understorey vegetation composition was introduced. It is based on the application of Bayes' theorem to the density function of site quality within the study area combined with the species-specific presence-absence response curves. The resulting posterior probability density function may be used for calculating an estimate for the site variable. Using this method, a jackknife estimate of site index H100 was calculated separately for pine- and spruce-dominated sites. The results indicated that the cross-validation root mean squared error (RMSEcv) of the estimates improved from 2.98 m down to 2.34 m relative to the "null" model (standard deviation of the sample distribution) in pine-dominated forests. In spruce-dominated forests RMSEcv decreased from 3.94 m down to 3.16 m. In order to assess these results, four other estimation methods based on understorey vegetation composition were applied to the same data set. The results showed that none of the methods was clearly superior to the others. In pine-dominated forests, RMSEcv varied between 2.34 and 2.47 m, and the corresponding range for spruce-dominated forests was from 3.13 to 3.57 m.

Systems analysis for planning of air fleets and maintenance facilities

The high cost and extraordinary demands made on sophisticated air defence systems, pose hard challenges to the managers and engineers who plan the operation and maintenance of such systems. This paper presents a study aimed at developing simulation and systems analysis techniques for the effective planning and efficient operation of small fleets of aircraft, typical of the air force of a developing country. We consider an important aspect of fleet management: the problem of resource allocation for achieving prescribed operational effectiveness of the fleet. At this stage, we consider a single flying-base, where the operationally ready aircraft are stationed, and a repair-depot, where the planes are overhauled. An important measure of operational effectiveness is ‘ availability ’, which may be defined as the expected fraction of the fleet fit for use at a given instant. The tour of aircraft in a flying-base, repair-depot system through a cycle of ‘ operationally ready ’ and ‘ scheduled overhaul ’ phases is represented first by a deterministic flow process and then by a cyclic queuing process. Initially the steady-state availability at the flying-base is computed under the assumptions of Poisson arrivals, exponential service times and an equivalent singleserver repair-depot. This analysis also brings out the effect of fleet size on availability. It defines a ‘ small ’ fleet essentially in terms of the important ‘ traffic ’ parameter of service rate/maximum arrival rate.A simulation model of the system has been developed using GPSS to study sensitivity to distributional assumptions, to validate the principal assumptions of the analytical model such as the single-server assumption and to obtain confidence intervals for the statistical parameters of interest.

Studies on neurotransmitter-stimulated phospholipid metabolism with cerebral tissue suspensions: A possible biochemical correlate of synaptogenesis in normal and undernourished rats

The phenomenon of neurotransmitter-stimulated incorporation of32Pi into phosphatidic acid and inositol phosphatides (neurotransmitter effect) in developing brain was studied in vitro as a possible measure of synaptogenesis. While the neurotransmitter effect was not observed with brain homogenates, highly consistent and significant effects were noted with brain tissue suspensions obtained by passing the tissue through nylon bolting cloth. The magnitude of the effect decreased with the increase in mesh number. Maximum stimulations obtained with the 33 mesh adult brain cortex preparations (mean±S.E.M. of6experiments) were203 ± 8%, 316 ± 11 % and150 ± 8% with 10−3 M acetylcholine (ACh) + 10−3 M eserine; 10−2 M norepinephrine (NE) and 10−2 M serotonin (5-HT), respectively. Experiments with developing rat brain at 7, 14 and 21 days of age showed that the neurotransmitter effects due to ACh, NE and 5-HT increase progressively in different regions of the brain but that there are marked regional differences. It is suggested that the neurotransmitter effect is a valid biochemical correlate of synaptogenesis. In rats undernourished from birth t0 21 days of age, by increasing the litter size, the neurotransmitter effect with ACh, NE or 5-HT was not altered in the cortex but was significantly reduced in the brain stem. In cerebellum the effects due to ACh and NE were significantly altered, while that with 5-HT was unaffected. It is concluded that cholinergic, adrenergic and serotonergic synapses are relatively unaffected in the cortex but are significantly affected in the brain stem by undernutrition. In the cerebellum of undernourished rats the adrenergic and cholinergic, but not serotonergic systems, are altered.

Geometric Characterizations for Patterson-Sullivan Measures of Geometrically Finite Kleinian Groups

The main results of this thesis show that a Patterson-Sullivan measure of a non-elementary geometrically finite Kleinian group can always be characterized using geometric covering and packing constructions. This means that if the standard covering and packing constructions are modified in a suitable way, one can use either one of them to construct a geometric measure which is identical to the Patterson-Sullivan measure. The main results generalize and modify results of D. Sullivan which show that one can sometimes use the standard covering construction to construct a suitable geometric measure and sometimes the standard packing construction. Sullivan has shown also that neither or both of the standard constructions can be used to construct the geometric measure in some situations. The main modifications of the standard constructions are based on certain geometric properties of limit sets of Kleinian groups studied first by P. Tukia. These geometric properties describe how closely the limit set of a given Kleinian group resembles euclidean planes or spheres of varying dimension on small scales. The main idea is to express these geometric properties in a quantitative form which can be incorporated into the gauge functions used in the modified covering and packing constructions. Certain estimation results for general conformal measures of Kleinian groups play a crucial role in the proofs of the main results. These estimation results are generalizations and modifications of similar results considered, among others, by B. Stratmann, D. Sullivan, P. Tukia and S. Velani. The modified constructions are in general defined without reference to Kleinian groups, so they or their variants may prove useful in some other contexts in addition to that of Kleinian groups.

Nestedness pattern in stream diatom assemblages of central Western Ghats

Community diversity and the population abundance of a particular group of species are controlled by immediate environment, inter-and intra-species interactions, landscape conditions, historical events and evolutionary processes. Nestedness is a measure of order in an ecological system, referring to the order in which the number of species is related to area or other factors. In this study we have studied the nestedness pattern in stream diatom assemblages in 24 stream sites of central Western Ghats, and report 98 taxa from the streams of central Western Ghats region. The communities show highly significant nested pattern. The Mantel test of matrix revealed a strong relationship between species assemblages and environmental conditions at the sites. A significant relationship between species assemblage and environmental condition was observed. Principal component analysis (PCA) indicated that environmental conditions differed markedly across the sampling sites, with the first three components explaining 78% of variance. Species composition of diatoms is significantly correlated with environmental distance across geographical extent. The current pattern suggests that micro-environment at regional levels influences the species composition of epilithic diatoms in streams. The nestedness shown by the diatom community was highly significant, even though it had a high proportion of idiosyncratic species, characterized with high numbers of cosmopolitan species, whereas the nested species were dominated by endemic species. PCA identifies ionic parameters and nutrients as the major features which determine the characteristics of the sampling sites. Hence the local water quality parameters are the major factors in deciding the diatom species assemblages.

Decorrelation of broad band signals by toeplitz-block-toeplitz structuring

We propose F-norm of the cross-correlation part of the array covariance matrix as a measure of correlation between the impinging signals and study the performance of different decorrelation methods in the broadband case using this measure. We first show that dimensionality of the composite signal subspace, defined as the number of significant eigenvectors of the source sample covariance matrix, collapses in the presence of multipath and the spatial smoothing recovers this dimensionality. Using an upper bound on the proposed measure, we then study the decorrelation of the broadband signals with spatial smoothing and the effect of spacing and directions of the sources on the rate of decorrelation with progressive smoothing. Next, we introduce a weighted smoothing method based on Toeplitz-block-Toeplitz (TBT) structuring of the data covariance matrix which decorrelates the signals much faster than the spatial smoothing. Computer simulations are included to demonstrate the performance of the two methods.

An experimental approach for non-destructive evaluation of fatigue damage in CFRP composites

Study of fatigue phenomenon in composites requires a dynamic tool which can detect and identify different failure mechanisms involved. The tool should also be capable of monitoring the cumulative damage progression on-line. Acoustic Emission Technique has been utilized in the experimental investigations on unidirectional carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CFRP) composite specimens subjected to tension-tension fatigue. Amplitude as well as frequency distribution of Acoustic Emission (AE) signals have been studied to detect and characterize different failure mechanisms. For a quantitative measure of degradation of the material with fatigue load cycles, reduction in stiffness of the specimen has been measured intermittently. Ultrasonic imaging could give the information on the changes in the interior status of the material at different stages of fatigue life.

Pillaring of smectites using an aluminium oligomer: A study of pillar density and thermal stability

Two smectite samples having different layer charges were pillared using hydroxy aluminium oligomers at a OH/Al ratio of 2.5 and at pH 4.3 to 4.6. Pillaring was carried out at different conditions such as ageing, temperature and base addition time of the pillaring solution, and also in the presence of nonionic surfactant polyoxyethylene sorbitanmonooleate (Tween-80). The primary objective of preparing at different conditions was to introduce varied quantities of aluminium oligomer between the layers and to study its effect on the properties of the pillared products. A simple method has been followed to estimate the amount of interlayer aluminium. A quantity called pillar density number (PDN) based on the ratio of interlayer Al adsorbed to CEC of the parent clay has been effectively used to evaluate the nature of the resulting pillared product. PDN, for a given clay, was found to correlate well with the sharpness of the d(001) peaks for the air dried samples. The calculated number of pillars, varied from 3.00 x 10(18) to 5.32 x 10(18) per meq charge. The present study shows that a higher value of PDN is indicative of better thermal stability. Pillar density number may be conveniently used as a measure of the thermal stability of pillared samples.

Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: External conditions versus internal feedbacks

The potential predictability of the Indian summer monsoon due to slowly varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcing is examined. Factors responsible for limiting the predictability are also investigated. Three multiyear simulations with the R30 version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are carried out for this purpose, The mean monsoon simulated by this model is realistic including the mean summer precipitation over the Indian continent. The interannual variability of the large-scale component of the monsoon such as the "monsoon shear index" and its teleconnection with Pacific SST is well simulated by the model in a 15-yr integration with observed SST as boundary condition. On regional scales, the skill in simulating the interannual variability of precipitation over the Indian continent by the model is rather modest and its simultaneous correlation with eastern Pacific SST is negative but poor as observed. The poor predictability of precipitation over the Indian region in the model is related to the fact that contribution to the interannual variability over this region due to slow SST variations [El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related] is comparable to those due to regional-scale fluctuations unrelated to ENSO SST. The physical mechanism through which ENSO SST tend to produce reduction in precipitation over the Indian continent is also elucidated. A measure of internal variability of the model summer monsoon is obtained from a 20-yr integration of the same model with fixed annual cycle SST as boundary conditions but with predicted soil moisture and snow cover. A comparison of summer monsoon indexes between this run and the observed SST run shows that the internal oscillations can account for a large fraction of the simulated monsoon variability. The regional-scale oscillations in the observed SST run seems to arise from these internal oscillations. It is discovered that most of the interannual internal variability is due to an internal quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the model atmosphere. Such a QBO is also found in the author's third 18-yr simulation in which fixed annual cycle of SST as well as soil moisture and snow cover are prescribed. This shows that the model QBO is not due to land-surface-atmosphere interaction. It is proposed that the model QBO arises due to an interaction between nonlinear intraseasonal oscillations and the annual cycle. Spatial structure of the QBO and its role in limiting the predictability of the Indian summer monsoon is discussed.

Transient analysis of mammalian cell growth in hollow fibre bioreactor

A mathematical model describing the dynamics of mammalian cell growth in hollow fibre bioreactor operated in closed shell mode is developed. Mammalian cells are assumed to grow as an expanding biofilm in the extra-capillary space surrounding the fibre. Diffusion is assumed to be the dominant process in the radial direction while axial convection dominates in the lumen of the bioreactor. The transient simulation results show that steep gradients in the cell number are possible under the condition of substrate limitation. The precise conditions which result in nonuniform growth of cells along the length of the bioreactor are delineated. The effect of various operating conditions, such as substrate feed rate, length of the bioreactor and diffusivity of substrate in different regions of the bioreactor, on the bioreactor performance are evaluated in terms of time required to attain the steady-state. The rime of growth is introduced as a measure of effectiveness factor for the bioreactor and is found to be dependent on two parameters, a modified Peclet number and a Thiele modulus. Diffusion, reaction and/or convection control regimes are identified based on these two parameters. The model is further extended to include dual substrate growth limitations, and the relative growth limiting characteristics of two substrates are evaluated. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Post-seizure EEG fractal dimension of first ECT predicts antidepressant response at two weeks

Background: Duration of seizure by itself is an insufficient criterion for a therapeutically adequate seizure in ECT. Therefore, measures of seizure EEG other than its duration need to be explored as indices of seizure adequacy and predictors of treatment response. We measured the EEG seizure using a geometrical method-fractal dimension (FD) and examined if this measure predicted remission. Methods: Data from an efficacy study on melancholic depressives (n = 40) is used for the present exploration. They received thrice or once weekly ECTs, each schedule at two energy levels - high or low energy level. FD was computed for early-, mid- and post-seizure phases of the ictal EEG. Average of the two channels was used for analysis. Results: Two-thirds of the patients (n = 25) were remitted at the end of 2 weeks. As expected, a significantly higher proportion of patients receiving thrice weekly ECT remitted than in patients receiving once weekly ECT. Smaller post-seizure FD at first ECT is the only variable which predicted remission status after six ECTs. within the once weekly ECT group too, smaller post-seizure FD was associated with remission status. Conclusions: Post-seizure FD is proposed as a novel measure of seizure adequacy and predictor of treatment response. Clinical implications: Seizure measures at first ECT may guide selection of ECT schedule to optimize ECT. Limitations: The study examined short term antidepressant effects only. The results may not be generalized to medication-resistant depressives. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.