Increasing the power of genome wide association studies in natural populations using repeated measures : evaluation and implementation

1. Genomewide association studies (GWAS) enable detailed dissections of the genetic basis for organisms' ability to adapt to a changing environment. In long-term studies of natural populations, individuals are often marked at one point in their life and then repeatedly recaptured. It is therefore essential that a method for GWAS includes the process of repeated sampling. In a GWAS, the effects of thousands of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) need to be fitted and any model development is constrained by the computational requirements. A method is therefore required that can fit a highly hierarchical model and at the same time is computationally fast enough to be useful. 2. Our method fits fixed SNP effects in a linear mixed model that can include both random polygenic effects and permanent environmental effects. In this way, the model can correct for population structure and model repeated measures. The covariance structure of the linear mixed model is first estimated and subsequently used in a generalized least squares setting to fit the SNP effects. The method was evaluated in a simulation study based on observed genotypes from a long-term study of collared flycatchers in Sweden. 3. The method we present here was successful in estimating permanent environmental effects from simulated repeated measures data. Additionally, we found that especially for variable phenotypes having large variation between years, the repeated measurements model has a substantial increase in power compared to a model using average phenotypes as a response. 4. The method is available in the R package RepeatABEL. It increases the power in GWAS having repeated measures, especially for long-term studies of natural populations, and the R implementation is expected to facilitate modelling of longitudinal data for studies of both animal and human populations.

Stakeholder perceptions of ecosystem services of the Wami River and Estuary

Management of riverine and coastal ecosystems warrants enhanced understanding of how different stakeholders perceive and depend upon different kinds of ecosystem services. Employing a mixed methods approach, this study compares and contrasts the use and perceptions of upstream residents, downstream residents, tourism officials, and conservation organizations regarding the value of 30 ecosystem services provided by the Wami River and its estuary in Tanzania, and investigates their perceptions of the main threats to this system. Our findings reveal that all of the stakeholder groups place a high value on the provision of domestic water, habitat for wild plants and animals, tourism, and erosion control, and a relatively low value on the prevention of saltwater intrusion, refuge from predators, spiritual fulfillment, nonrecreational hunting, and the provision of traditional medications and inorganic materials for construction. Differences emerge, however, between the groups in the value assigned to the conservation of riverine and estuarine fauna and the provision of raw materials for building and handicrafts. Declining fish populations and an increasing human population are identified by the residents and conservation employees, respectively, as their prime concerns regarding the future conditions of the Wami River and its estuary. These groups also acknowledge increasing salinity levels and the loss of mangroves as other key concerns. The identification of these mutual interests and shared concerns can help build common ground among stakeholders while the recognition of potential tensions can assist managers in balancing and reconciling the multiple needs and values of these different groups.

A cross-sectional study assessing the association between online ratings and structural and quality of care measures : results from two German physician rating websites

BACKGROUND: Even though physician rating websites (PRWs) have been gaining in importance in both practice and research, little evidence is available on the association of patients' online ratings with the quality of care of physicians. It thus remains unclear whether patients should rely on these ratings when selecting a physician. The objective of this study was to measure the association between online ratings and structural and quality of care measures for 65 physician practices from the German Integrated Health Care Network "Quality and Efficiency" (QuE). METHODS: Online reviews from two German PRWs were included which covered a three-year period (2011 to 2013) and included 1179 and 991 ratings, respectively. Information for 65 QuE practices was obtained for the year 2012 and included 21 measures related to structural information (N = 6), process quality (N = 10), intermediate outcomes (N = 2), patient satisfaction (N = 1), and costs (N = 2). The Spearman rank coefficient of correlation was applied to measure the association between ratings and practice-related information. RESULTS: Patient satisfaction results from offline surveys and the patients per doctor ratio in a practice were shown to be significantly associated with online ratings on both PRWs. For one PRW, additional significant associations could be shown between online ratings and cost-related measures for medication, preventative examinations, and one diabetes type 2-related intermediate outcome measure. There again, results from the second PRW showed significant associations with the age of the physicians and the number of patients per practice, four process-related quality measures for diabetes type 2 and asthma, and one cost-related measure for medication. CONCLUSIONS: Several significant associations were found which varied between the PRWs. Patients interested in the satisfaction of other patients with a physician might select a physician on the basis of online ratings. Even though our results indicate associations with some diabetes and asthma measures, but not with coronary heart disease measures, there is still insufficient evidence to draw strong conclusions. The limited number of practices in our study may have weakened our findings.

Fungal and Oomycete Diseases

Fungal and oomycete pathogens are the causal agents of many important plant diseases. They affect crops that are staple foods for humans and livestock and are responsible for significant economic losses every year. This in turn generates a global social impact. Although fungi and oomycetes evolved separately, they share similar strategies and weaponry to attack plants. Here we review the challenges to global food security posed by these pathogens, current technologies used for detection and diagnostics, the latest understanding of pathogens' strategies to colonize plants, and current and future control measures. Genomic sequences of several important fungal and oomycete pathogens, as well as many crop plants, are now available and are helping to increase understanding of host–pathogen interactions. Recent developments in this field are discussed.

Obesity, diet quality and absenteeism in a working population

The relationship between workplace absenteeism and adverse lifestyle factors (smoking, physical inactivity and poor dietary patterns) remains ambiguous. Reliance on self-reported absenteeism and obesity measures may contribute to this uncertainty. Using objective absenteeism and health status measures, the present study aimed to investigate what health status outcomes and lifestyle factors influence workplace absenteeism. Cross-sectional data were obtained from a complex workplace dietary intervention trial, the Food Choice at Work Study. Four multinational manufacturing workplaces in Cork, Republic of Ireland. Participants included 540 randomly selected employees from the four workplaces. Annual count absenteeism data were collected. Physical assessments included objective health status measures (BMI, midway waist circumference and blood pressure). FFQ measured diet quality from which DASH (Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension) scores were constructed. A zero-inflated negative binomial (zinb) regression model examined associations between health status outcomes, lifestyle characteristics and absenteeism. The mean number of absences was 2·5 (sd 4·5) d. After controlling for sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics, the zinb model indicated that absenteeism was positively associated with central obesity, increasing expected absence rate by 72 %. Consuming a high-quality diet and engaging in moderate levels of physical activity were negatively associated with absenteeism and reduced expected frequency by 50 % and 36 %, respectively. Being in a managerial/supervisory position also reduced expected frequency by 50 %. To reduce absenteeism, workplace health promotion policies should incorporate recommendations designed to prevent and manage excess weight, improve diet quality and increase physical activity levels of employees.

A Game of Horns: Transnational Flows of Rhino Horn

A multi-sectorial regime of protection including international treaties, conservation and security measures, demand reduction campaigns and quasi-military interventions has been established to protect rhinos. Despite these efforts, the poaching of rhinos and trafficking of rhino horn continue unabated. This dissertation asks why the illegal market in rhinoceros horn is so resilient in spite of the myriad measures employed to disrupt it. A theoretical approach grounded in the sociology of markets is applied to explain the structure and functioning of the illegal market. The project follows flows of rhino horn from the source in southern Africa to illegal markets in Southeast Asia. The multi-sited ethnography included participant observations, interviews and focus groups with 416 informants during fourteen months of fieldwork. The sample comprised of, amongst others, convicted and active rhino poachers, smugglers and kingpins, private rhino breeders and hunting outfitters, African and Asian law enforcement officials, as well as affected local communities and Asian consumers. Court files, CITES trade data, archival materials, newspaper reports and social media posts were also analysed to supplement findings and to verify and triangulate data from interviews, focus groups and observations. Central to the analysis is the concept of “contested illegality”, a legitimization mechanism employed by market participants along the different segments of the horn supply chain. These actors' implicit or explicit contestation of the state-sponsored label of illegality serves as a legitimising and enabling mechanism, facilitating participation in gray or illegal markets for rhino horn. The research identified fluid interfaces between legal, illegal and gray markets, with recurring actors who have access to transnational trade structures, and who also possess market and product knowledge, as well as information about the regulatory regime and its loopholes. It is against the background of colonial, apartheid and neoliberal exploitation and marginalization of local communities that a second argument is introduced: the path dependency of conservation paradigms. Underpinning rhino conservation and regulation are archaic and elitist conservation regimes that discount the potential for harmonious relationships between local communities and wildlife. The increasing militarization of anti-poaching measures and green land grabs are exacerbating the rhino problem by alienating communities further from conservation areas and wild animals. The third argument looks at how actors deal with coordination problems in transnational illegal markets. Resolving the coordination problems of cooperation, value and competition are considered essential to the operation of formal markets. It is argued that the problem of security provides an additional and crucial obstacle to actors transacting in markets. The systematic analysis of flows between the researched sites of production, distribution and consumption of rhino horn shows that the social embeddedness of actors facilitates the flourishing of illegal markets in ways that escape an effective enforcement of CITES regulations.

Fishers’ perception on livelihood strategies, adaptation and mitigation measures to cope with changes in climate variables around Lake Wamala, Uganda

Fisheries support livelihoods but are threatened by climate variability and change which intensified since the 1970s. This study used quantitative and qualitative methods to determine the extent to which fishers around Lake Wamala in Uganda were copying with perceived changes in climate variables and the impacts on their livelihoods, to generate knowledge to enable the fishers increase resilience and sustain their livelihoods. Fishers were aware of changes in climate manifested by unpredictable seasons, floods and droughts. Fishing was the main livelihood activity. The African catfish had replaced Nile tilapia as the dominant fish species. There was damage and loss of gear, boats, landing sites and lives, and changes in fish catches and sizes, income and fish consumption during the perceived floods and droughts. The fishers adapted to the changes through increasing time on fishing grounds and changing target species and fishing gears but innovative ones diversified to high value crops and livestock which increased their income beyond what was earned from fishing thus acting as an incentive for some of them to quit fishing. Diversification to non-fishery activities as a form of adaptation was enhanced by membership to social groups, weekly fishing days, fishing experience and age of fishers but its benefits were not equally shared among men and women. Mitigation measures included planting trees, mulching gardens and protecting wetlands. Adaptation and mitigation measures were constrained by limited credit, awareness and land. The required interventions included improving access to credit, irrigation facilities and appropriate planting materials and raising awareness. The study showed that the fishers were aware of changes in climatic variables and the impacts on their livelihoods. There were also adaptation and mitigation measures practiced by the fishers which if promoted and their constraints addressed, could increase resilience of fishers to climatic change and sustain their livelihoods.

Clouds of Suspicion: Airspace Arrangements, Escalation, and Discord in U.S./NATO-Russian Relations

How have cooperative airspace arrangements contributed to cooperation and discord in the Euro-Atlantic region? This study analyzes the role of three sets of airspace arrangements developed by Euro-Atlantic states since the end of the Cold War—(1) cooperative aerial surveillance of military activity, (2) exchange of air situational data, and (3) joint engagement of theater air and missile threats—in political-military relations among neighbors and within the region. These arrangements provide insights into the integration of Central and Eastern European states into Western security institutions, and the current discord that centers on the conflict in Ukraine and Russia’s place in regional security. The study highlights the role of airspace incidents as contributors to conflict escalation and identifies opportunities for transparency- and confidence-building measures to improve U.S./NATO-Russian relations. The study recommends strengthening the Open Skies Treaty in order to facilitate the resolution of conflicts and improve region-wide military transparency. It notes that political-military arrangements for engaging theater air and missile threats created by NATO and Russia over the last twenty years are currently postured in a way that divides the region and inhibits mutual security. In turn, the U.S.-led Regional Airspace Initiatives that facilitated the exchange of air situational data between NATO and then-NATO-aspirants such as Poland and the Baltic states, offer a useful precedent for improving air sovereignty and promoting information sharing to reduce the fear of war among participating states. Thus, projects like NATO’s Air Situational Data Exchange and the NATO-Russia Council Cooperative Airspace Initiative—if extended to the exchange of data about military aircraft—have the potential to buttress deterrence and contribute to conflict prevention. The study concludes that documenting the evolution of airspace arrangements since the end of the Cold War contributes to understanding of the conflicting narratives put forward by Russia, the West, and the states “in-between” with respect to reasons for the current state of regional security. The long-term project of developing a zone of stable peace in the Euro-Atlantic must begin with the difficult task of building inclusive security institutions to accommodate the concerns of all regional actors.

MANICURE/PEDICURE TECHNICIANS: BIOSECURITY KNOWLEDGE AND PRACTICES FOR VIRAL HEPATITIS

Objetivo: Investigar o conhecimento e as práticas de biossegurança para hepatites virais de manicures/pedicures. Métodos: Estudo descritivo, transversal, quantitativo, através de questionário, utilizando instrumento de coleta de dados autoaplicado elaborado pelos pesquisadores, contendo dados da população (sexo, idade, tempo de atuação profissional) e conhecimentos básicos sobre transmissão de hepatite e práticas de biossegurança e higiene. Resultados: Entrevistaram-se 96 manicures/pedicures que atuam no Noroeste do Paraná. A maioria das profissionais já ouviu falar da patologia, mas somente 41,7% (n=40) fizeram o exame para detecção do vírus da hepatite; 38,39% (n=77) relataram como via de transmissão o sangue e 31,8% (n=63), a relação sexual. A reutilização de materiais descartáveis foi relatada por 60,4% (n=58); 55,2% (n=53) realizam esterilização de materiais e 27,1% (n=26) não a realizam. Não ficou evidenciada associação significativa entre tempo de profissão e as variáveis utilizadas: ouviu sobre hepatite (p=0,77025), realização de exames (p=0,035476), reutilização de materiais descartáveis (p=0,42691), lavagem de mãos (p=0,32876), uso de luvas descartáveis (p=0,33752) e esterilização de materiais (p=0,84443). Conclusão: As manicures entrevistadas não conhecem as exigências da Vigilância Sanitária no que concerne à prevenção da transmissão de hepatites.

Usability and Security in Medication. Administration Applications

The traditional process of filling the medicine trays and dispensing the medicines to the patients in the hospitals is manually done by reading the printed paper medicinechart. This process can be very strenuous and error-prone, given the number of sub-tasksinvolved in the entire workflow and the dynamic nature of the work environment.Therefore, efforts are being made to digitalise the medication dispensation process byintroducing a mobile application called Smart Dosing application. The introduction ofthe Smart Dosing application into hospital workflow raises security concerns and callsfor security requirement analysis. This thesis is written as a part of the smart medication management project at EmbeddedSystems Laboratory, A˚bo Akademi University. The project aims at digitising the medicine dispensation process by integrating information from various health systems, and making them available through the Smart Dosing application. This application is intended to be used on a tablet computer which will be incorporated on the medicine tray. The smart medication management system include the medicine tray, the tablet device, and the medicine cups with the cup holders. Introducing the Smart Dosing application should not interfere with the existing process carried out by the nurses, and it should result in minimum modifications to the tray design and the workflow. The re-designing of the tray would include integrating the device running the application into the tray in a manner that the users find it convenient and make less errors while using it. The main objective of this thesis is to enhance the security of the hospital medicine dispensation process by ensuring the security of the Smart Dosing application at various levels. The methods used for writing this thesis was to analyse how the tray design, and the application user interface design can help prevent errors and what secure technology choices have to be made before starting the development of the next prototype of the Smart Dosing application. The thesis first understands the context of the use of the application, the end-users and their needs, and the errors made in everyday medication dispensation workflow by continuous discussions with the nursing researchers. The thesis then gains insight to the vulnerabilities, threats and risks of using mobile application in hospital medication dispensation process. The resulting list of security requirements was made by analysing the previously built prototype of the Smart Dosing application, continuous interactive discussions with the nursing researchers, and an exhaustive state-of-the-art study on security risks of using mobile applications in hospital context. The thesis also uses Octave Allegro method to make the readers understand the likelihood and impact of threats, and what steps should be taken to prevent or fix them. The security requirements obtained, as a result, are a starting point for the developers of the next iteration of the prototype for the Smart Dosing application.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN VULNERABLE CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS IN MGETA, TANZANIA

Increased occurrence of drought and dry spells during the growing season have resulted in increased interest in protection of tropical water catchment areas. In Mgeta, a water catchment area in the Uluguru Mountains in Tanzania, water used for vegetable and fruit production is provided through canals from the Uluguru South Forest Reserve. The clearing of forest land for cultivation in the steep slopes in the area is causing severe land degradation, which is threatening the water catchment area, livelihoods, and food security of the local communities, as well as the major population centers in the lowlands. In this paper, the economic performance of a traditional cropping-livestock system with East African (EA)-goats and pigs and extensive vegetable production is compared with a more sustainable and environmentally friendly crop-dairy goat production system. A linear programming (LP) crop-livestock model, maximizing farm income considering the environmental constraints in the area was applied for studying the economic performance of dairy goats in the production system. The model was worked out for the rainy and dry seasons and the analysis was conducted for a basic scenario representing the current situation, based on the variability in the 30 years period from 1982-2012, and in a scenario of both lower crop yields and increased crop variability due to climate change. Data obtained from a sample of 60 farmers that were interviewed using a questionnaire was used to develop and parameterize the model. The study found that in the steep slopes of the area, a crop-dairy goat system with extensive use of grass and multipurpose trees (MPTs) would do better than the traditional vegetable gardening with the EA goat production system. The crop-dairy goat system was superior both in the basic and in a climate change scenario since the yield variation of the grass and MPTs system was less affected compared to vegetable crops due to more tree cover and the use of perennial grasses. However, the goat milk production in the area was constrained by inadequate feeding and lack of an appropriate breeding program. Hence, farmers should enhance goat milk production by supplementing with more concentrate feed and by implementing goat-breeding principles. Moreover, policy measures to promote such a development are briefly discussed.

Development and Verification of Control and Protection Strategies in Hybrid AC/DC Power Systems for Smart Grid Applications

Modern power networks incorporate communications and information technology infrastructure into the electrical power system to create a smart grid in terms of control and operation. The smart grid enables real-time communication and control between consumers and utility companies allowing suppliers to optimize energy usage based on price preference and system technical issues. The smart grid design aims to provide overall power system monitoring, create protection and control strategies to maintain system performance, stability and security. This dissertation contributed to the development of a unique and novel smart grid test-bed laboratory with integrated monitoring, protection and control systems. This test-bed was used as a platform to test the smart grid operational ideas developed here. The implementation of this system in the real-time software creates an environment for studying, implementing and verifying novel control and protection schemes developed in this dissertation. Phasor measurement techniques were developed using the available Data Acquisition (DAQ) devices in order to monitor all points in the power system in real time. This provides a practical view of system parameter changes, system abnormal conditions and its stability and security information system. These developments provide valuable measurements for technical power system operators in the energy control centers. Phasor Measurement technology is an excellent solution for improving system planning, operation and energy trading in addition to enabling advanced applications in Wide Area Monitoring, Protection and Control (WAMPAC). Moreover, a virtual protection system was developed and implemented in the smart grid laboratory with integrated functionality for wide area applications. Experiments and procedures were developed in the system in order to detect the system abnormal conditions and apply proper remedies to heal the system. A design for DC microgrid was developed to integrate it to the AC system with appropriate control capability. This system represents realistic hybrid AC/DC microgrids connectivity to the AC side to study the use of such architecture in system operation to help remedy system abnormal conditions. In addition, this dissertation explored the challenges and feasibility of the implementation of real-time system analysis features in order to monitor the system security and stability measures. These indices are measured experimentally during the operation of the developed hybrid AC/DC microgrids. Furthermore, a real-time optimal power flow system was implemented to optimally manage the power sharing between AC generators and DC side resources. A study relating to real-time energy management algorithm in hybrid microgrids was performed to evaluate the effects of using energy storage resources and their use in mitigating heavy load impacts on system stability and operational security.

Private security beyond private military and security companies:exploring diversity within private-public collaborations and its consequences for security governance

The aim of this special issue is to widen the existing debates on security privatization by looking at how and why an increasing number of private actors beyond private military and/or security companies (PMSCs) have come to perform various security related functions. While PMSCs produce security for profit, most other private sector actors make profit by selling goods and services that were originally not connected with security in the traditional understanding of the term. However, due to the continuous introduction of new legal and technical regulations by public authorities, many non- security related private businesses nowadays have to perform at least some security functions. Little research, however, has been done thus far, both in terms of security practices of non- security related private businesses and their impact on security governance. This introduction explains how this special issue contributes to closing this glaring gap by 1) extending the conceptual and theoretical arguments in the existing body of literature; and 2) offering a range of original case studies on the specific roles of non- security related private companies of all sizes, areas of businesses, and geographic origin.

Crop-Specific EU Aid and Smallholder Food Security in Sierra Leone

The article analyses the viability of promoting crop-specific programs as a mean to improve smallholder net farm income and food security. The case study explores the relevance of European Union Stabilisation of Export Earnings (STABEX) funds in supporting Sierra Leone’s agricultural development agenda. By analysing the drivers of food security for a number of targeted smallholders in the two most important agricultural zones of Sierra Leone, it is possible to compare the suitability of crop-specific support (in rice, cocoa and coffee) versus general aid programs (public infrastructure, on and off farm diversification opportunities, sustainable practices, access to productive assets, etc.). The results indicate that crop diversification strategies are widespread and closely related to risk minimisation and enhanced food security among smallholders. Similarly, crop-specific programs mainly focusing on commercialisation tend to overlook important constraints associated to self-consumption and productivity.

The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease at the wildlife-livestock interface in northern Tanzania

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a disease of cloven hooved animals caused by FMD virus (FMDV), is one of the most economically devastating diseases of livestock worldwide. The global burden of disease is borne largely by livestock-keepers in areas of Africa and Asia where the disease is endemic and where many people rely on livestock for their livelihoods and food-security. Yet, there are many gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of FMDV circulation in these settings. In East Africa, FMD epidemiology is complicated by the circulation of multiple FMDV serotypes (distinct antigenic variants) and by the presence of large populations of susceptible wildlife and domestic livestock. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the only wildlife species with consistent evidence of high levels of FMDV infection, and East Africa contains the largest population of this species globally. To inform FMD control in this region, key questions relate to heterogeneities in FMD prevalence and impacts in different livestock management systems and to the role of wildlife as a potential source of FMDV for livestock. To develop FMD control strategies and make best use of vaccine control options, serotype-specific patterns of circulation need to be characterised. In this study, the impacts and epidemiology of FMD were investigated across a range of traditional livestock-keeping systems in northern Tanzania, including pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and rural smallholder systems. Data were generated through field studies and laboratory analyses between 2010 and 2015. The study involved analysis of existing household survey data and generated serological data from cross-sectional livestock and buffalo samples and longitudinal cattle samples. Serological analyses included non-structural protein ELISAs, serotype-specific solid-phase competitive ELISAs, with optimisation to detect East African FMDV variants, and virus neutralisation testing. Risk factors for FMDV infection and outbreaks were investigated through analysis of cross-sectional serological data in conjunction with a case-control outbreak analysis. A novel Bayesian modeling approach was developed to infer serotype-specific infection history from serological data, and combined with virus isolation data from FMD outbreaks to characterise temporal and spatial patterns of serotype-specific infection. A high seroprevalence of FMD was detected in both northern Tanzanian livestock (69%, [66.5 - 71.4%] in cattle and 48.5%, [45.7-51.3%] in small ruminants) and in buffalo (80.9%, [74.7-86.1%]). Four different serotypes of FMDV (A, O, SAT1 and SAT2) were isolated from livestock. Up to three outbreaks per year were reported by households and active surveillance highlighted up to four serial outbreaks in the same herds within three years. Agro-pastoral and pastoral livestock keepers reported more frequent FMD outbreaks compared to smallholders. Households in all three management systems reported that FMD outbreaks caused significant impacts on milk production and sales, and on animals’ draught power, hence on crop production, with implications for food security and livelihoods. Risk factor analyses showed that older livestock were more likely to be seropositive for FMD (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.4 [1.4-1.5] per extra year) and that cattle (OR 3.3 [2.7-4.0]) were more likely than sheep and goats to be seropositive. Livestock managed by agro-pastoralists (OR 8.1 [2.8-23.6]) or pastoralists (OR 7.1 [2.9-17.6]) were more likely to be seropositive compared to those managed by smallholders. Larger herds (OR: 1.02 [1.01-1.03] per extra bovine) and those that recently acquired new livestock (OR: 5.57 [1.01 – 30.91]) had increased odds of suffering an FMD outbreak. Measures of potential contact with buffalo or with other FMD susceptible wildlife did not increase the likelihood of FMD in livestock in either the cross-sectional serological analysis or case-control outbreak analysis. The Bayesian model was validated to correctly infer from ELISA data the most recent serotype to infect cattle. Consistent with the lack of risk factors related to wildlife contact, temporal and spatial patterns of exposure to specific FMDV serotypes were not tightly linked in cattle and buffalo. In cattle, four serial waves of different FMDV serotypes that swept through southern Kenyan and northern Tanzanian livestock populations over a four-year period dominated infection patterns. In contrast, only two serotypes (SAT1 and SAT2) dominated in buffalo populations. Key conclusions are that FMD has a substantial impact in traditional livestock systems in East Africa. Wildlife does not currently appear to act as an important source of FMDV for East African livestock, and control efforts in the region should initially focus on livestock management and vaccination strategies. A novel modeling approach greatly facilitated the interpretation of serological data and may be a potent epidemiological tool in the African setting. There was a clear temporal pattern of FMDV antigenic dominance across northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Longer-term research to investigate whether serotype-specific FMDV sweeps are truly predictable, and to shed light on FMD post-infection immunity in animals exposed to serial FMD infections is warranted.