886 resultados para Managing Risk: Identifying and Controlling Losses and Assuming Risks from Perils


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A detailed analysis is undertaken of the Atlantic-European climate using data from 500-year-long proxy-based climate reconstructions, a long climate simulation with perpetual 1990 forcing, as well as two global and one regional climate change scenarios. The observed and simulated interannual variability and teleconnectivity are compared and interpreted in order to improve the understanding of natural climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales for the late Holocene. The focus is set on the Atlantic-European and Alpine regions during the winter and summer seasons, using temperature, precipitation, and 500 hPa geopotential height fields. The climate reconstruction shows pronounced interdecadal variations that appear to “lock” the atmospheric circulation in quasi-steady long-term patterns over multi-decadal periods controlling at least part of the temperature and precipitation variability. Different circulation patterns are persistent over several decades for the period 1500 to 1900. The 500-year-long simulation with perpetual 1990 forcing shows some substantial differences, with a more unsteady teleconnectivity behaviour. Two global scenario simulations indicate a transition towards more stable teleconnectivity for the next 100 years. Time series of reconstructed and simulated temperature and precipitation over the Alpine region show comparatively small changes in interannual variability within the time frame considered, with the exception of the summer season, where a substantial increase in interannual variability is simulated by regional climate models.

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Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between business-level strategy and organisational performance and to test the applicability of Porter's generic strategies in explaining differences in the performance of organisations. Design/methodology/approach – The study was focussed on manufacturing firms in the UK belonging to the electrical and mechanical engineering sectors. Data were collected through a postal survey using the survey instrument from 124 organisations and the respondents were all at CEO level. Both objective and subjective measures were used to assess performance. Non-response bias was assessed statistically and it was not found to be a major problem affecting this study. Appropriate measures were taken to ensure that common method variance (CMV) does not affect the results of this study. Statistical tests indicated that CMV problem does not affect the results of this study. Findings – The results of this study indicate that firms adopting one of the strategies, namely cost-leadership or differentiation, perform better than “stuck-in-the-middle” firms which do not have a dominant strategic orientation. The integrated strategy group has lower performance compared with cost-leaders and differentiators in terms of financial performance measures. This provides support for Porter's view that combination strategies are unlikely to be effective in organisations. However, the cost-leadership and differentiation strategies were not strongly correlated with the financial performance measures indicating the limitations of Porter's generic strategies in explaining performance heterogeneity in organisations. Originality/value – This study makes an important contribution to the literature by identifying some of the gaps in the literature through a systematic literature review and addressing those gaps.

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The Ibituruna quartz-syenite was emplaced as a sill in the Ribeira-Aracuai Neoproterozoic belt (Southeastern Brazil) during the last stages of the Gondwana supercontinent amalgamation. We have measured the Anisotropy of Magnetic Susceptibility (AMS) in samples from the Ibituruna sill to unravel its magnetic fabric that is regarded as a proxy for its magmatic fabric. A large magnetic anisotropy, dominantly due to magnetite, and a consistent magnetic fabric have been determined over the entire Ibituruna massif. The magmatic foliation and lineation are strikingly parallel to the solid-state mylonitic foliation and lineation measured in the country-rock. Altogether, these observations suggest that the Ibituruna sill was emplaced during the high temperature (similar to 750 degrees C) regional deformation and was deformed before full solidification coherently with its country-rock. Unexpectedly, geochronological data suggest a rather different conclusion. LA-ICP-MS and SHRIMP ages of zircons from the Ibituruna quartz-syenite are in the range 530-535 Ma and LA-ICP-MS ages of zircons and monazites from synkinematic leucocratic veins in the country-rocks suggest a crystallization at similar to 570-580 Ma, i.e., an HT deformation >35My older than the emplacement of the Ibituruna quartz-syenite. Conclusions from the structural and the geochronological studies are therefore conflicting. A possible explanation arises from (40)Ar-(39)Ar thermochronology. We have dated amphiboles from the quartz-syenite, and amphiboles and biotites from the country-rock. Together with the ages of monazites and zircons in the country-rock, (40)Ar-(39)Ar mineral ages suggest a very low cooling rate: <3 degrees C/My between 570 and similar to 500 Ma and similar to 5 degrees C/My between 500 and 460 Ma. Assuming a protracted regional deformation consistent over tens of My, under such stable thermal conditions the fabric and microstructure of deformed rocks may remain almost unchanged even if they underwent and recorded strain pulses separated by long periods of time. This may be a characteristic of slow cooling ""hot orogens"" that rocks deformed at significantly different periods during the orogeny, but under roughly unchanged temperature conditions, may display almost indiscernible microstructure and fabric. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This paper presents evidence on the key role of infrastructure in the Andean Community trade patterns. Three distinct but related gravity models of bilateral trade are used. The first model aims at identifying the importance of the Preferential Trade Agreement and adjacency on intra-regional trade, while also checking the traditional roles of economic size and distance. The second and third models also assess the evolution of the Trade Agreement and the importance of sharing a common border, but their main goal is to analyze the relevance of including infrastructure in the augmented gravity equation, testing the theoretical assumption that infrastructure endowments, by reducing trade and transport costs, reduce “distance” between bilateral partners. Indeed, if one accepts distance as a proxy for transportation costs, infrastructure development and improvement drastically modify it. Trade liberalization eliminates most of the distortions that a protectionist tariff system imposes on international business; hence transportation costs represent nowadays a considerably larger barrier to trade than in past decades. As new trade pacts are being negotiated in the Americas, borders and old agreements will lose significance; trade among countries will be nearly without restrictions, and bilateral flows will be defined in terms of costs and competitiveness. Competitiveness, however, will only be achieved by an improvement in infrastructure services at all points in the production-distribution chain.

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Dietary modifications may significantly reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, including cholesterol and atherosclerosis. The present study addressed the effects of the crude extract from the pulp fruit of Tamarindus indica L. on lipid serum levels and early atherosclerotic lesions in hypercholesterolemic hamsters in vivo, and the extract's antioxidant action, in vitro. Animals were fed on either chow or atherogenic diet during 10 weeks and concomitantly received either water or T indica L. extract for drinking. Treatment of hypercholesterolemic hamsters with the T. indica pulp fruit extract (5%) led to a decrease in the levels of serum total cholesterol (50%), non-HDL cholesterol (73%) and triglyceride (60%), and to an increase of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels (61%). In vitro, the extract presented radical scavenging ability, as assessed by the 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) and superoxide radicals assays, and led to decreased lipid peroxidation in serum, as assessed by the thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) assay. In vivo, the extract improved the efficiency of the antioxidant defense system, as assessed by the superoxide dismutase, catalase and glutathione peroxidase activities. Together these results indicate the potential of tamarind extracts in diminishing the risk of atherosclerosis development in humans. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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To better understand the process of slow luteal regression of the nonpregnant cycle in dogs and the acute luteolysis that occurs prepartum, the present study investigated in vitro PGF2 alpha production by the endometrium, corpus luteum and placental explants obtained at known times of the cycle from pregnant bitches (days 63, 64 and immediately postpartum; day 0 = estimated day of the ovulatory LH surge) and from nonpregnant diestrus bitches (approximately days 65, 75 and 85). Both basal PGF2 alpha production and its production in the presence of the protein kinase C (PKC) stimulator 12,13-phorbol dibutyrate (PDBu) were determined. For PDBu-supplemented incubations, mean PGF2 alpha production (pg/mL/mg/6 h) by endometrium explants of the nonpregnant bitches in late diestrus was highest on day 65 (205 +/- 87) and reduced to low levels (38 +/- 17 and 11 +/- 11) on days 75 and 85, respectively. The production by corpus luteum explants from these bitches was significantly less on day 65 (46 +/- 14) than that of the day 65 endometrium explants, and was slightly increased on day 85 (103 +/- 52). The corresponding mean PGF2 alpha production by the endometrium explants of pregnant bitches was on average much greater (i.e., two to three-fold) compared to nonpregnant bitches (P < 0.01) and involved high concentrations at day 64 (1523 +/- 467) and postpartum, compared to somewhat lower levels on day 63 (830 +/- 65); luteal PGF production (165 +/- 4) was also higher than in nonpregnant bitches around day 65. For pregnant bitches, PGF production per gram of tissue in the endometrium explants was greater than for the CL or placenta explants (180 +/- 37). Therefore, the endometrium of the pregnant bitch has an increased capability to produce PGF2a immediately prepartum, which on a tissue weight basis, exceeds that of either corpora lutea or the placenta. However, assuming a larger mass of placental tissue in vivo, we inferred that the placenta may contribute substantially to peripheral PGF concentrations. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.

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A thermostimulated sol-gel transition in a system prepared by mixing a ZrOCl(2) acidified solution to a hot H(2)SO(4) aqueous solution was studied by dynamic theological measurements and quasi-elastic light scattering. The effect of temperature and of molar ratio R(S) = [Zr]/[SO(4)] on the gelation kinetics was analyzed using the mass fractal aggregate growth model. This study shows that the linear growth of aggregates occurs at the early period of transformation, while bidimensional growth occurs at the advanced stage. The bidimensional growth can be shifted toward monodimensional growth by decreasing the aggregation rate by controlling the temperature and/or molar ratio R(S). EXAFS and Raman results gave evidence that the linear chain growth is supported by covalent sulfate bonding between primary building blocks. At the advanced stage of aggregation, the assembly of linear chains through hydrogen bonding gave rise to the growth of bidimensional particles.

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There are few studies about the distribution of natural molecular variants of low-risk HPVs. Our aim was to evaluate the E6 early gene variability among HPV-6 and HPV-11 isolates detected in recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP) samples obtained in a cohort of Brazilian patients. We also performed a phylogenetic analysis in order to compare nucleotide sequences identified in our study with previously reported isolates from different anatomic sites (laryngeal papillomas, genital warts, cervical cancer and anal swabs) obtained from other parts of the world to determine the phylogenetic relationships of variants detected in Brazil. The complete coding region of the E6 gene of 25 samples was cloned and sequenced: 18 isolates of HPV-6 (72%) and 7 isolates of HPV-11 (28%). A total of four different HPV-6 genomic variants and two HPV-11 genomic variants was identified. It was not possible to correlate specific variants with disease severity. Phylogenetic trees for both HPV types were constructed enclosing both E6 sequences detected in our study and formerly published sequences. In both phylogenetic trees, the sequences from Brazil did not group together. We could not establish a geographical association between HPV-6 or HPV-11 variants, unlike HPV-16 and HPV-18. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to study the interactions of sedimentary humic substances (SHS) from a sugarcane cultivation area with Cu(II) and Cr(III) and to evaluate the occurrence of these metals in the pore water and SHS. Materials and methods: For this study, the northwestern region of the State of São Paulo, Brazil, which is considered the region with the highest production of sugar cane in the state, was selected. Samples of sediment were collected from four sampling sites in the Preto, Turvo, and Grande rivers. The SHS and pore water were extracted from the sediment using the method suggested by the International Humic Substances Society and centrifugation, respectively. The complexing capacity (CC) of the SHS for Cu(II) and Cr(III) was determined by individually titrating these metals with an ultrafiltration system using tangential flow. The total concentrations of Cr and Cu were determined for the pore water, sediments, and humic substances with graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry and Zeeman background correction after an acid digestion, according to the methods described in US EPA Method 3050B. Results and discussion: The SHS from a site in the Turvo River, which is typically cultivated with sugarcane, possessed the highest concentration of Cu bound to SHS (25.0%), the largest CC (0.63 mmol Cu g-1 HS) and the highest concentration of this metal in the pore water (1.38 mg Cu Kg-1 sed.). For Cr, the SHS collected from a location on the Preto River dam had the largest CC (0.90 mmol Cr g-1 HS) and the lowest Cr content in the pore water (0.29 mg Cr Kg-1 sed.), indicating that there was an inverse relationship between the CC and the concentration of metal available in the pore water. Conclusions: Sedimentary humic substances might be one of the regulatory factors controlling the availability of Cu and Cr in the sediments found in a typical region that has been planted with sugarcane. Distinct behaviors were observed between the two elements investigated; higher CC and a larger fraction of Cu(II) were found in the pore water of samples originating from sugarcane crops. The opposite behavior was observed for the Cr(III) species. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

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ABSTRACT: The distribution of genetic polymorphisms of chemokine receptors CCR5-D32, CCR2-64I and chemokine (SDF1-3 A) mutations were studied in 110 Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) seropositive individuals (seropositive group) and 139 seronegative individuals (seronegative group) from the population of the northern Brazilian city of Belém which is the capital of the state of Pará in the Brazilian Amazon. The CCR5-D32 mutation was found in the two groups at similar frequencies, i.e. 2.2% for the seronegative group and 2.7% for the seropositive group. The frequencies of the SDF1-3 A mutation were 21.0% for the seronegative group and 15.4% for the seropositive group, and the CCR2-64I allele was found at frequencies of 12.5% for the seronegative group and 5.4% for the seropositive group. Genotype distributions were consistent with Hardy-Weinberg expectations in both groups, suggesting that none of the three mutations has a detectable selective effect. Difference in the allelic and genotypic frequencies was statistically significant for the CCR2 locus, the frequency in the seronegative group being twice that found in the seropositive group. This finding may indicate a protective effect of the CCR2-64I mutation in relation to HIV transmission. However, considering that the CCR2-64I mutation has been more strongly associated with a decreased risk for progression for AIDS than to the resistance to the HIV infection, this could reflect an aspect of population structure or a Type I error.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)