Six thinking hats for electricity markets simulation: adapting meeting tools to agent decision

In almost all industrialized countries, the energy sector has suffered a severe restructuring that originated a greater complexity in market players’ interactions. The complexity that these changes brought made way for the creation of decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets. MASCEM – “Multiagent Simulator for Competitive Electricity Markets” arose in this context providing a framework for evaluating new rules, new behaviour, and new participants in deregulated electricity markets. MASCEM uses game theory, machine learning techniques, scenario analysis and optimisation techniques to model market agents and to provide them with decision-support. ALBidS is a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. Fully integrated with MASCEM it considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches. The Six Thinking Hats is a powerful technique used to look at decisions from different perspectives. This tool’s goal is to force the thinker to move outside his habitual thinking style. It was developed to be used mainly at meetings in order to “run better meetings, make faster decisions”. This dissertation presents a study about the applicability of the Six Thinking Hats technique in Decision Support Systems, particularly with the multiagent paradigm like the MASCEM simulator. As such this work’s proposal is of a new agent, a meta-learner based on STH technique that organizes several different ALBidS’ strategies and combines the distinct answers into a single one that, expectedly, out-performs any of them.

Behavioural development in a matching-to-sample task and token use by an infant chimpanzee reared by his mother

Animal Cognition, V.6, pp. 259–267

Data Extraction Tool to Analyse, Transform and Store Real Data from Electricity Markets

The study of electricity markets operation has been gaining an increasing importance in the last years, as result of the new challenges that the restructuring process produced. Currently, lots of information concerning electricity markets is available, as market operators provide, after a period of confidentiality, data regarding market proposals and transactions. These data can be used as source of knowledge to define realistic scenarios, which are essential for understanding and forecast electricity markets behavior. The development of tools able to extract, transform, store and dynamically update data, is of great importance to go a step further into the comprehension of electricity markets and of the behaviour of the involved entities. In this paper an adaptable tool capable of downloading, parsing and storing data from market operators’ websites is presented, assuring constant updating and reliability of the stored data.

An automatic tool to Extract, Transform and Load data from real electricity markets

The study of Electricity Markets operation has been gaining an increasing importance in the last years, as result of the new challenges that the restructuring produced. Currently, lots of information concerning Electricity Markets is available, as market operators provide, after a period of confidentiality, data regarding market proposals and transactions. These data can be used as source of knowledge, to define realistic scenarios, essential for understanding and forecast Electricity Markets behaviour. The development of tools able to extract, transform, store and dynamically update data, is of great importance to go a step further into the comprehension of Electricity Markets and the behaviour of the involved entities. In this paper we present an adaptable tool capable of downloading, parsing and storing data from market operators’ websites, assuring actualization and reliability of stored data.

A Learning Algorithm and System Approach to Address Exceptional Events in Domestic Consumption Management

The integration of the Smart Grid concept into the electric grid brings to the need for an active participation of small and medium players. This active participation can be achieved using decentralized decisions, in which the end consumer can manage loads regarding the Smart Grid needs. The management of loads must handle the users’ preferences, wills and needs. However, the users’ preferences, wills and needs can suffer changes when faced with exceptional events. This paper proposes the integration of exceptional events into the SCADA House Intelligent Management (SHIM) system developed by the authors, to handle machine learning issues in the domestic consumption context. An illustrative application and learning case study is provided in this paper.

Data Mining Approach to support the Generation of Realistic Scenarios for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets

This paper presents the Realistic Scenarios Generator (RealScen), a tool that processes data from real electricity markets to generate realistic scenarios that enable the modeling of electricity market players’ characteristics and strategic behavior. The proposed tool provides significant advantages to the decision making process in an electricity market environment, especially when coupled with a multi-agent electricity markets simulator. The generation of realistic scenarios is performed using mechanisms for intelligent data analysis, which are based on artificial intelligence and data mining algorithms. These techniques allow the study of realistic scenarios, adapted to the existing markets, and improve the representation of market entities as software agents, enabling a detailed modeling of their profiles and strategies. This work contributes significantly to the understanding of the interactions between the entities acting in electricity markets by increasing the capability and realism of market simulations.

Iron Metabolism: From Health to Disease

Background Iron is vital for almost all living organisms by participating in a wide range of metabolic processes. However, iron concentration in body tissues must be tightly regulated since excessive iron may lead to microbial infections or cause tissue damage. Disorders of iron metabolism are among the most common human diseases and cover several conditions with varied clinical manifestations. Methods An extensive literature review on the basic aspects of iron metabolism was performed, and the most recent findings on this field were highlighted as well. Results New insights on iron metabolism have shed light into its real complexity, and its role in both healthy and pathological states has been recognized. Important discoveries about the iron regulatory machine and imbalances in its regulation have been made, which may lead in a near future to the development of new therapeutic strategies against iron disorders. Besides, the toxicity of free iron and its association with several pathologies has been addressed, although it requires further investigations. Conclusion This review will provide students in the fields of biochemistry and health sciences a brief and clear overview of iron physiology and toxicity, as well as imbalances in the iron homeostasis and associated pathological conditions.

Brain-computer interface (BCI): a methodological proposal to assess the impacts of medical applications in 2022

Based on the report for “Project IV” unit of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment (Doctoral Conference) at Universidade Nova de Lisboa (December 2011). This thesis research has the supervision of António Moniz (FCT-UNL and ITAS-KIT) and Armin Grunwald (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology-ITAS, Germany). Other members of the thesis committee are Mário Forjaz Secca (FCT-UNL) and Femke Nijboer (University of Twente, Netherlands).

Customer Lifetime Value: a framework for application in the insurance industry - Building a Business Process to Generate and Maintain an Automatic Estimation Agent

Research Project submited as partial fulfilment for the Master Degree in Statistics and Information Management

Promoting Portuguese exports to Germany: An export promotion plan for the machinery & equipment sector

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Amorphous silicon e 3D sensors applied to object detection

Nowadays, existing 3D scanning cameras and microscopes in the market use digital or discrete sensors, such as CCDs or CMOS for object detection applications. However, these combined systems are not fast enough for some application scenarios since they require large data processing resources and can be cumbersome. Thereby, there is a clear interest in exploring the possibilities and performances of analogue sensors such as arrays of position sensitive detectors with the final goal of integrating them in 3D scanning cameras or microscopes for object detection purposes. The work performed in this thesis deals with the implementation of prototype systems in order to explore the application of object detection using amorphous silicon position sensors of 32 and 128 lines which were produced in the clean room at CENIMAT-CEMOP. During the first phase of this work, the fabrication and the study of the static and dynamic specifications of the sensors as well as their conditioning in relation to the existing scientific and technological knowledge became a starting point. Subsequently, relevant data acquisition and suitable signal processing electronics were assembled. Various prototypes were developed for the 32 and 128 array PSD sensors. Appropriate optical solutions were integrated to work together with the constructed prototypes, allowing the required experiments to be carried out and allowing the achievement of the results presented in this thesis. All control, data acquisition and 3D rendering platform software was implemented for the existing systems. All these components were combined together to form several integrated systems for the 32 and 128 line PSD 3D sensors. The performance of the 32 PSD array sensor and system was evaluated for machine vision applications such as for example 3D object rendering as well as for microscopy applications such as for example micro object movement detection. Trials were also performed involving the 128 array PSD sensor systems. Sensor channel non-linearities of approximately 4 to 7% were obtained. Overall results obtained show the possibility of using a linear array of 32/128 1D line sensors based on the amorphous silicon technology to render 3D profiles of objects. The system and setup presented allows 3D rendering at high speeds and at high frame rates. The minimum detail or gap that can be detected by the sensor system is approximately 350 μm when using this current setup. It is also possible to render an object in 3D within a scanning angle range of 15º to 85º and identify its real height as a function of the scanning angle and the image displacement distance on the sensor. Simple and not so simple objects, such as a rubber and a plastic fork, can be rendered in 3D properly and accurately also at high resolution, using this sensor and system platform. The nip structure sensor system can detect primary and even derived colors of objects by a proper adjustment of the integration time of the system and by combining white, red, green and blue (RGB) light sources. A mean colorimetric error of 25.7 was obtained. It is also possible to detect the movement of micrometer objects using the 32 PSD sensor system. This kind of setup offers the possibility to detect if a micro object is moving, what are its dimensions and what is its position in two dimensions, even at high speeds. Results show a non-linearity of about 3% and a spatial resolution of < 2µm.

From user browsing behaviour to user demographics

A Internet conta hoje com mais de 3 mil milhões de utilizadores e esse valor não para de aumentar. Desta forma, proporcionar uma experiência online agradável aos seus utilizadores é cada vez mais importante para as empresas. De modo a tirar partido dos benefícios deste crescimento, as empresas devem ser capazes de identificar os seus clientes-alvo dentro do total de utilizadores; e, subsequentemente, personalizar a sua experiência online. Existem diversas formas de estudar o comportamento online dos utilizadores; no entanto, estas não são ideais e existe uma ampla margem para melhoria. A inovação nesta área pode comportar um grande potencial comercial e até ser disruptiva. Com isto em mente, proponho-me a estudar a possível criacão de um sistema de aprendizagem automática (machine learning) que permita prever informa ações demográficas dos utilizadores estritamente com base no seu comportamento online. Tal sistema poderia constituir uma alternativa às atuais opções, que são mais invasivas; mitigando assim preocupações ao nível da proteção de dados pessoais. No primeiro capítulo (Introdução) explico a motivação para o estudo do comportamento dos utilizadores online por parte de empresas, e descrevo as opções disponíveis atualmente. Apresento também a minha proposta e o contexto em que assenta. O capítulo termina com a identicação de limitações que possam existir a priori. O segundo capítulo (Machine Learning) fornece uma introdução sobre machine learning, com o estudo dos algoritmos que vão ser utilizados e explicando como analisar os resultados. O terceiro capítulo (Implementação) explica a implementação do sistema proposto e descreve o sistema que desenvolvi no decorrer deste estudo, e como integra-lo em sistemas já existentes. No quarto capítulo (Análise e manipulação dos dados), mostro os dados compilados e explico como os recolhi e manipulei para testar a hipótese. No quinto capítulo (Análise de dados e discussão) vemos como e que os dados recolhidos foram usados pelos vários algoritmos para descobrir como se correlacionam com dados dos utilizadores e analiso e discuto os resultados observados. Por fim, o sexto e último capítulo apresenta as conclusões. Dependendo dos resultados, mostro como a hipótese poderia ser melhor testada, ou então discuto os próximos passos para tornar o sistema realidade.

Intelligent decision support to predict patient barotrauma risk in intensive care units

The occurrence of Barotrauma is identified as a major concern for health professionals, since it can be fatal for patients. In order to support the decision process and to predict the risk of occurring barotrauma Data Mining models were induced. Based on this principle, the present study addresses the Data Mining process aiming to provide hourly probability of a patient has Barotrauma. The process of discovering implicit knowledge in data collected from Intensive Care Units patientswas achieved through the standard process Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining. With the goal of making predictions according to the classification approach they several DM techniques were selected: Decision Trees, Naive Bayes and Support Vector Machine. The study was focused on identifying the validity and viability to predict a composite variable. To predict the Barotrauma two classes were created: “risk” and “no risk”. Such target come from combining two variables: Plateau Pressure and PCO2. The best models presented a sensitivity between 96.19% and 100%. In terms of accuracy the values varied between 87.5% and 100%. This study and the achieved results demonstrated the feasibility of predicting the risk of a patient having Barotrauma by presenting the probability associated.

Optimization techniques to detect early ventilation extubation in intensive care units

The decision support models in intensive care units are developed to support medical staff in their decision making process. However, the optimization of these models is particularly difficult to apply due to dynamic, complex and multidisciplinary nature. Thus, there is a constant research and development of new algorithms capable of extracting knowledge from large volumes of data, in order to obtain better predictive results than the current algorithms. To test the optimization techniques a case study with real data provided by INTCare project was explored. This data is concerning to extubation cases. In this dataset, several models like Evolutionary Fuzzy Rule Learning, Lazy Learning, Decision Trees and many others were analysed in order to detect early extubation. The hydrids Decision Trees Genetic Algorithm, Supervised Classifier System and KNNAdaptive obtained the most accurate rate 93.2%, 93.1%, 92.97% respectively, thus showing their feasibility to work in a real environment.