Evaluating forecasts from SETAR models of exchange rates

We consider the forecasting performance of two SETAR exchange rate models proposed by Kräger and Kugler [J. Int. Money Fin. 12 (1993) 195]. Assuming that the models are good approximations to the data generating process, we show that whether the non-linearities inherent in the data can be exploited to forecast better than a random walk depends on both how forecast accuracy is assessed and on the ‘state of nature’. Evaluation based on traditional measures, such as (root) mean squared forecast errors, may mask the superiority of the non-linear models. Generalized impulse response functions are also calculated as a means of portraying the asymmetric response to shocks implied by such models.

The science case for an orbital mission to Uranus: Exploring the origins and evolution of ice giant planets

Giant planets helped to shape the conditions we see in the Solar System today and they account for more than 99% of the mass of the Sun’s planetary system. They can be subdivided into the Ice Giants (Uranus and Neptune) and the Gas Giants (Jupiter and Saturn), which differ from each other in a number of fundamental ways. Uranus, in particular is the most challenging to our understanding of planetary formation and evolution, with its large obliquity, low self-luminosity, highly asymmetrical internal field, and puzzling internal structure. Uranus also has a rich planetary system consisting of a system of inner natural satellites and complex ring system, five major natural icy satellites, a system of irregular moons with varied dynamical histories, and a highly asymmetrical magnetosphere. Voyager 2 is the only spacecraft to have explored Uranus, with a flyby in 1986, and no mission is currently planned to this enigmatic system. However, a mission to the uranian system would open a new window on the origin and evolution of the Solar System and would provide crucial information on a wide variety of physicochemical processes in our Solar System. These have clear implications for understanding exoplanetary systems. In this paper we describe the science case for an orbital mission to Uranus with an atmospheric entry probe to sample the composition and atmospheric physics in Uranus’ atmosphere. The characteristics of such an orbiter and a strawman scientific payload are described and we discuss the technical challenges for such a mission. This paper is based on a white paper submitted to the European Space Agency’s call for science themes for its large-class mission programme in 2013.

Label-free enrichment of avian Leucocytozoon using flow cytometric sorting

The group of haemosporidian parasites is of general interest to basic and applied science, since several species infect mammals, leading to malaria and associated disease symptoms. Although the great majority of haemosporidian parasites appear in bird hosts, as in the case of Leucocytozoon buteonis, there is little genomic information about genetic aspects of their co-evolution with hosts. Consequently, there is a high need for parasite-enrichment strategies enabling further analyses of the genomes, namely without exposure to DNA-intercalating dyes. Here, we used flow cytometry without an additional labelling step to enrich L. buteonis from infected buzzard blood. A specific, defined area of two-dimensional scattergramms was sorted and the fraction was further analysed. The successful enrichment of L. buteonis in the sorted fraction was demonstrated by Giemsa-staining and qPCR revealing a clear increase of parasite-specific genes, while host-specific genes were significantly decreased. This is the first report describing a labelling-free enrichment approach of L. buteonis from infected buzzard blood. The enrichment of parasites presented here is free of nucleic acid-intercalating dyes which may interfere with fluorescence-based methods or subsequent sequencing approaches.

Polymer brushes under shear: molecular dynamics simulations compared to experiments

Surfaces coated with polymer brushes in a good solvent are known to exhibit excellent tribological properties. We have performed coarse-grained equilibrium and nonequilibrium molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to investigate dextran polymer brushes in an aqueous environment in molecular detail. In a first step, we determined simulation parameters and units by matching experimental results for a single dextran chain. Analyzing this model when applied to a multichain system, density profiles of end-tethered polymer brushes obtained from equilibrium MD simulations compare very well with expectations based on self-consistent field theory. Simulation results were further validated against and correlated with available experimental results. The simulated compression curves (normal force as a function of surface separation) compare successfully with results obtained with a surface forces apparatus. Shear stress (friction) obtained via nonequilibrium MD is contrasted with nanoscale friction studies employing colloidal-probe lateral force microscopy. We find good agreement in the hydrodynamic regime and explain the observed leveling-off of the friction forces in the boundary regime by means of an effective polymer–wall attraction.

Novel heating/cooling stage designed for fluid inclusion microthermometry of large stalagmite sections

Liquid–vapour homogenisation temperatures of fluid inclusions in stalagmites are used for quantitative temperature reconstructions in paleoclimate research. Specifically for this application, we have developed a novel heating/cooling stage that can be operated with large stalagmite sections of up to 17 × 35 mm2 to simplify and improve the chronological reconstruction of paleotemperature time-series. The stage is designed for use of an oil immersion objective and a high-NA condenser front lens to obtain high-resolution images for bubble radius measurements. The temperature accuracy of the stage is better than ± 0.1 °C with a precision (reproducibility) of ± 0.02 °C.

Palliativ vård : Anhörigvårdarens upplevelser av palliativ hemsjukvård.

Syftet med denna studie var att belysa anhörigvårdares upplevelser av den palliativa vården i hemmet utifrån aktuell vetenskaplig litteratur. Litteraturen som använts till resultatet har varit vetenskapliga artiklar av i huvudsak kvalitativ design. Artiklarna söktes i databaserna Blackwell Synergy, Elin och Pub Med. Sökorden som användes var Caring, Caregivers, Experiences, Family, Homecare, Needs, Palliative care, Perception. Sökorden kombinerades för att få artiklar som överensstämde med syftet och frågeställningen. Resultatet visade att anhörigvårdarna upplevde det som en självklarhet att den sjuke personen skulle vårdas hemma för att kunna behålla sitt normala liv och sin värdighet så långt som möjligt. Att få kunskap om hur de utförde omvårdnaden samt information om sjukdomen samt om risker och fördelar vid behandling upplevdes som viktigt och gav dem förståelse för situationen. Anhörigvårdarna levde med krav och förväntningar från flera håll, från den sjuke, andra anhöriga, från sjukvårdsteamet, samhället men också från dem själva. Periodvis var de både fysiskt och psykiskt utmattade, vilket gjorde dem sårbara. Perioden av palliativ hemsjukvård karaktäriserades av rädslor, osäkerhet, frustration och utmattning men även av positiva känslor och glädje över att kunna skapa livskvalité för den sjuke personen.

Överlämningar från förskola till förskoleklass

Syftet med studien var att synliggöra verksamma förskollärares erfarenheter av överlämning från förskola till förskoleklass. Ett antagande var att överlämningen, för att gynna kontinuitet och långsiktighet, behöver fokusera barns lärande inom målområden som styrdokumenten anger för förskolans verksamhet. Empirisk data samlades in genom en kombination av frågeformulärmetod och intervjumetod. 36 förskollärare i förskolan och 38 förskollärare i förskoleklassen besvarade en enkät, medan 4 förskollärare i respektive verksamhet intervjuades. Analysen genomfördes abduktivt genom att studiens teoretiska utgångspunkter och frågeställningar utgjorde grund för teman som identifierades i det empiriska materialet. Studien visar att det genomförs överlämningar mellan verksamheterna. Dessa görs för att ge barnen en trygg övergång snarare än för att gynna kontinuerligt och långsiktigt lärande inom angivna målområden. Omsorg om barnen och föreställningar om skolformernas verksamhet ger avtryck på agerande och ställningstagande i överlämningarna. I artikeln diskuteras professionell bedömning av barns lärande samt behovet av ökad samsyn inom förskola och förskoleklass vad gäller enskilda barns lärande inom olika områden. 

Skicklig läs- och skrivundervisning i åk 1-3 : Om lärares möjligheter och hinder

This study focuses on teachers’ opportunities and obstacles to perform skillful reading and writing instruction. It’s about the ability to accurately identify where students are in their reading and writing process and to help them develop good reading skills. It is also about the ability to recognize signs of difficulties that students may have in their written language development and to know what efforts are needed to help them advance their reading and writing skills. The research is based on teachers’ own statements and survey responses on the external conditions for teaching and on their approach, attitudes and knowledge in reading and writing. The empirical material consists of interviews, surveys and test data. The interview study was conducted with eight teachers. The questionnaire was answered by 249 teachers, while the knowledge test was conducted of 269 teachers and 31 special education teachers. Many of the teachers in this study have lack knowledge in the structure of language and common Swedish spelling rules. Furthermore, it appears that a large part of them are unaccustomed to explaining, in detail, students’ reading development and find it difficult to systematically describe the aspects of daily literacy instruction. The overall picture is that many teachers teach without having tools to reflect on how their education really affects students’ reading and writing. These shortcomings make it difficult to conduct effective literacy instruction. Once students have learned to decode or if they have reading difficulties, many teachers seem to one-sidedly focus on getting students to read more. The consequence could be that those who would need to practice more on the technical basic of reading or comprehension strategies are left without support. Lack of variety and individuality in fluency and comprehension training can challenge the students’ reading and writing development. The teachers in the study, who have the old junior school teacher and elementary teacher education, have the highest amount of knowledge of reading and writing (the test). Good education can provide student teachers with professional skills that they may develop further in their careers. Knowledge of the meaning of phonological and phonemic awareness as well as knowledge of how to count phonemes seem to be important for knowledge of reading and writing (the test). Knowledge of basic reading processes can be obtained by systematic and structured work with students’ linguistic development, and through continuous dialogues with experienced colleagues on how and why questions. This is one important way to work also in teacher training. When essential professional skills are established in the teacher education, in practice students will obtain the school’s learning goals.

Utilização de nutrientes energéticos por córtex cerebral de ratos : efeitos de diferentes concentrações de potássio

Glicose é o principal substrato energético no SNC de mamíferos adultos, contudo o cérebro também é capaz de utilizar outros substratos, incluindo manose, frutose, galactose, glicerol, corpos cetônicos e lactato. Glicose é quase totalmente oxidada a CO2 e H2O, mas ela também é precursora de neurotransmissores, tais como glutamato, GABA e glicina. O metabolismo energético do SNC varia ontogeneticamente, visto o fato de que nas primeiras 2 horas após o nascimento, lactato é o seu principal substrato, glicose e corpos cetônicos servem como substratos nos 21 dias subseqüentes e, após este período, somente glicose predomina. A utilização de nutrientes é regulada de várias maneiras, tais como o transporte através das células endoteliais capilares, transporte através da membrana plasmática, variações na atividade enzimática e variações nas concentrações de nutrientes plasmáticos. Está bem estabelecido que a atividade funcional do SNC aumenta o metabolismo energético. Tal evento pode ser dependente da atividade da bomba Na+,K+-ATPase, a qual é requerida para restabelecer a homeostase iônica. O aumento da concentração de potássio extracelular de um nível basal 8-12 mM provoca excitação neuronal fisiológica. A concentração de potássio pode atingir 50-80 mM durante convulsões, isquemia ou hipoglicemia. O potássio liberado pela atividade elétrica é captado nos astrócitos através de processos dependentes e não dependentes de ATP. Neste estudo, observamos o efeito de diferentes concentrações de potássio extracelular (2.7, 20 e 50 mM), sobre a oxidação de glicose, frutose, manose e lactato a CO2 e a conversão a lipídios em córtex cerebral de ratos jovens (10dias) e adultos (60 dias). Considerando que a captação de deoxiglicose está relacionada com a atividade glicolítica, testamos a influência do potássio extracelular sobre este parâmetro. Os efeitos da ouabaína sobre a oxidação de glicose e captação de deoxiglicose foram testados para determinar se a influência de potássio extracelular era dependente da atividade da bomba Na+,K+-ATPase. Os efeitos da monensina (ionóforo de Na+) e bumetanide (inibidor do transportador de Na+/K+/2Cl-) foram também testados. O aumento da concentração de potássio extracelular aumentou a oxidação de glicose, frutose, e manose a CO2 em córtex cerebral de ratos adultos, contudo, este fenômeno não foi observado em ratos jovens. A oxidação de lactato aumentou com o aumento da concentração de potássio extracelular em ambos ratos jovens e adultos. Não houve diferença na oxidação de glicose e sobre a captação de deoxiglicose na presença de ouabaína. Monensina aumentou a captação de deoxiglicose em 2 minutos de incubação. Contudo, esta captação diminuiu em períodos de incubação de 1 hora e 10 minutos. Além disso, não houve efeito do bumetanide sobre o aumento causado pela alta concentração de potássio extracelular na oxidação de glicose.

Como ajudar a fidelizar clientes: o caso das lojas Quero Quero S. A . Filial de Santa Rosa - RS

Deep Changes in the consuming market are demanding a high level of competitive skills from all kind of companies, mainly those directed to sales of consumer goods. How to engage customers is a key factor, a competitive skill, to be learned from successful practices. This Master dissertation is concentrated on the case of a department store, a successful branch of an organization called Quero-Quero, in south of Brazil. Observations, interviews, and a survey, and its analysis, lead to the identification of informal practices and instruments they use to establish durable links with customers. Also the role of all stakeholders is considered both in the survey and analysis.

Alterações urinárias assintomáticas em portadores do anticorpo para virus da hepatite C

Vários estudos associam a infecção crônica pelo vírus da hepatite C a manifestação extra-hepáticas incluindo glomerulonefrite membranoproliferativa. A prevalência de anormalidades urinárias associadas a esta infecção ainda é controversa. Este trabalho tem por objetivo investigar a prevalência de alterações urinárias assintomáticas em doadores de sangue com anti VHC positivo. No período de Julho de 1997 a Março de 1998 foram avaliados 58 doadores de sangue anti VHC + (41 homens e 17 mulheres; com idade média de 34 anos) e 128 doadores VHC -, considerado grupo controle (93 homens e 35 mulheres; com idade média de 31 anos). Todos foram questionados quanto à história prévia de doenças sistêmicas, do trato urinário, uso de drogas (incluindo AINE e uso de analgésico ), transfusão de sangue, fumo e uso de álcool. O anti VHC foi medido pela técnica de enzima imunoensaio, de segunda geração (Abbot Laboratories). As amostras de urina foram inicialmente rastreadas utilizando-se fitas Combur 10 (Boehringer). A microalbuminuria foi medida pela imunoturbidimetria (Bayer, kit 6813) e a NAG foi medida pela técnica de espectrofotometria ( SIGMA N 9376 ). Hematúria assintomática foi definida como > 5 hemácias no sedimento urinário, proteinúria com o aparecimento de 1+ na fita reagente; cilindrúria quando foi visualizado qualquer tipo de cilindro; microalbuminúria alterada quando foi >16 mg/l; relação microalbuminúria/creatininúria elevada quando >15mg/g e a NAG urinária elevada, quando os valores estavam > 5,6U/g de creatinina na urina. Na análise estatística utilizou-se um nível de significância de 95% (p=0,05). Verificou-se que a cor branca e o sexo masculino predominaram nos dois grupos, o grupo VHC + apresentou uma freqüência significativamente aumentada em relação ao uso de AINE (p= 0,003), álcool p< 0,001), transfusão (p= 0,006) e drogas (p< 0,001) quando comparado ao grupo VHC -. No grupo VHC + as enzimas hepáticas estavam significativamente mais elevadas (AST p=0,004, ALT p< 0,001), assim como as médias de GGT (p= 0,004). Concluímos que o grupo anti VHC + em estudo não apresenta anormalidades urinárias significativas comparativamente com o grupo controle. A prevalência de hematúria e proteinúria nos grupos VHC + e VHC – foi respectivamente 12,0% x 9,4% e 5,4% x 5,5%, sem diferença estatística entre os dois grupos. As médias da microalbuminúria nos dois grupos foram respectivamente (10,5 + 22,5 ; 8,7 +12,2 , p= 0,560) e a da NAG (3,2 + 1,8 ; 4,2 + 3,3 , p= 0,232). Constatamos uma associação estatisticamente significativa entre a presença de hematúria e proteinúria (p= 0,011), proteinúria e cilindrúria ( p< 0,001), proteinúria e índice de elevado de microalbuminúria ( p<0,001), NAG e índice de microalbuminúria elevado (p= 0,02); hematúria e sexo feminino (p<0,001), níveis de GT elevados nos indivíduos com proteinúria (p=0,038) e uma associação entre NAG e tabagismo ( p=0,004).

Precision measurements of the ∧c + and D0 lifetimes

A measurement technique of charm baryons lifetimes from hadro-production data was presented. The measurement verified the lifetime analysis procedure in a sample with higher statistical precision. Other effects studied include mass reflections; effects of the presence of a second charm particle; and mismeasurement of charm decays. Monte carlo simulations were used for the detailed study of systematic effects using the charm data.