Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

Making decisions in the absence of clear facts: a historical perspective

Recently, a claim has been made that executive decisions makers, far from being fact collectors, are actually fact users and integrators. As such, the claim continues, executive decision makers need help in understanding how to interpret facts, as well as guidance in making decisions in the absence of clear facts. This report justifies this claim against the backdrop of the modern history of decision making, from 1956 to the present. The historical excursion serves to amplify and clarify the claim, as well as to develop a theoretical framework for making decisions in the absence of clear facts. Two essential issues are identified that impact upon decision making in the absence of clear facts, as well criteria for decision making effectiveness under such circumstances. Methodological requirements and practical objectives round off the theoretical framework. The historical analysis enables the identification of one particular established methodology as claiming to meet the methodological requirements of the theoretical framework. Since the methodology has yet to be tried on information-poor situations, a further project is proposed that will test its validity.

Mosaicos de áreas protegidas e unidades de conservação. Dificuldades e desafios num arranjo de governança híbrida: o caso do Mosaico Bocaina

O objetivo principal desta tese é compreender o funcionamento de um mosaico de áreas protegidas e unidades de conservação – o Mosaico Bocaina. Entende-se hoje que a política de conservação de biodiversidade depende da criação e adequada gestão de áreas protegidas. No entanto, a apropriação estatal de porções do território se deu por meio de decretos de criação de unidades de conservação num período em que não era obrigatória a consulta à população que habita essas localidades, o que acabou gerando inúmeros inconvenientes para ambos os lados e um verdadeiro imbróglio jurídico quando se trata do reconhecimento dos direitos difusos. O Mosaico Bocaina foi criado por uma portaria do Ministério do Meio Ambiente no final de 2006. Desde 2007 vem tentando se firmar como um instrumento de planejamento e gestão integrada e participativa de um conjunto unidades de conservação. Tenta-se também mitigar e buscar possíveis soluções para conflitos fundiários históricos criados pela sobreposição de territórios oficiais e tradicionais. Por meio da análise sistemática dos documentos produzidos no âmbito do seu Conselho Consultivo, e do acompanhamento das discussões de temas caros aos atores interagindo nesse fórum de governança híbrida, procuramos entender por que certos temas avançam e entram na agenda, sendo encaminhados para as instâncias decisórias competentes, e outros nem sequer conseguem ser processados, sendo bloqueados assim que entram na pauta. Identificamos que tal processo é resultado da dinâmica de configuração de forças de duas coalizões de defesa que disputam, mais que compartilham, espaços no território, e sempre polarizaram as discussões. De um lado, a coalizão pró-biodiversidade, que agrega gestores de unidades de conservação (tanto de proteção integral quanto de uso sustentado) e outros atores cujo foco nem sempre é uma agenda claramente conservacionista, mas excludente. De outro, a coalizão pró-sociodiversidade, que luta pela adoção de uma agenda socioambientalista e alternativa, com a inclusão e garantia do protagonismo das comunidades tradicionais nos projetos de desenvolvimento local sustentável. Acreditamos que essa polarização e dificuldade de construção de consensos baseados em princípios de colaboração e cooperação é resultado da própria complexidade da gestão da governança em fóruns híbridos como esse, complexidade esta derivada da coexistência de valores, preferências e interesses muitas vezes divergentes. Mas também conseguimos identificar outros fatores específicos, resultados de características locais e/ou escolhas realizadas pelo coletivo de atores ao longo da trajetória. A enorme assimetria de informação e poder entre os atores participantes, por exemplo, dificulta o desenvolvimento de confiança e mecanismos de reciprocidade. A adoção de uma coordenação colegiada, por outro lado, acabou comprometendo o surgimento de uma liderança ou instância neutra que funcionasse como mediadora dos processos de negociação entre as partes. O profundo desconhecimento das possibilidades – mas, sobretudo, também dos limites – dos mosaicos de áreas protegidas e unidades de conservação como instrumento de gestão territorial dentro do amplo Sistema Nacional de Unidades de Conservação gera expectativas de solução de conflitos que dependem de decisões que são tomadas alhures, o que acaba frustrando e desmobilizando os participantes de ambos os lados. A imagem de aparente apatia dos órgãos ambientais federais e estaduais, por sua vez, derivada da morosidade dos processos públicos, tende a infundir ainda mais incerteza no relacionamento entre os atores.

Developmental class coalitions: historical experiences and prospects

Este artigo discute o conceito de coalizões de classe como uma alternativa parcial à luta de classes na compreensão das sociedades capitalistas; define duas coalizões de classes básicas - a desenvolvimentista e a liberal; apresenta brevemente três coalizões de classe desenvolvimentistas paradigmáticas - a mercantilista, a bismarckiana, e a social-democrata (ou dos anos dourados do capitalismo); e usa esse arcabouço teórico para entender o capitalismo contemporâneo nos anos pós neoliberais - os anos que se seguem a crise financeira global de 2008

The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.

Quando o passado se faz presente: os desafios da gestão social no programa nacional de agricultura familiar

A evolução de políticas públicas na esfera rural, anteriormente desenvolvida pelo Ministério da Agricultura, passando para o Ministério do Desenvolvimento Agrário e ganhando prioridade na agenda do governo a partir do mandato do ex-presidente Luis Inácio Lula da Silva ao incorporar no Ministério da Casa Civil a política pública dos Territórios da Cidadania, demonstra o retorno da importância da esfera rural brasileira e de sua população para o desenvolvimento real do país. Tendo a certeza de que a política pública hoje, gerida pelo Ministério da Casa Civil, apresenta um histórico evolutivo e que desde o final da década de 90 já priorizava como ação estratégica a gestão social como pressuposto para uma atuação do Estado pautado por ações e critérios republicanos, foi realizado um levantamento de algumas explicações que apontam a mudança da ação estatal para uma gestão que incorpora a população como um agente importante para o alcance das metas preestabelecidas pelo Estado. Sabendo da real importância do aspecto histórico para a evolução das políticas públicas, este estudo resgatou o Programa Nacional de Fortalecimento Familiar (PRONAF) como objeto de investigação, já que tal política apresenta-se como um grande marco para o desenvolvimento da gestão social nas políticas públicas territoriais. Foi realizada então uma análise de conteúdo de (4) relatórios institucionais que cobrem (4) estados e mais ou menos 100 municípios para evidenciar se as mudanças preconizadas pela atuação do conceito da gestão social estão efetivamente mudando a cultura política do país. O foco para verificação da presente questão ocorre a partir da análise dos Conselhos Municipais de Desenvolvimento Rural (CMDR). As constatações feitas a partir dos relatórios e interpretadas através das categorias trabalhadas no presente estudo demonstram que a realidade social brasileira ainda apresenta fragilidades advindas da formação social do país, apresentando-se como verdadeiros obstáculos para a efetivação do interesse coletivo e para a consolidação de um Estado brasileiro efetivamente republicano

A encruzilhada da vida política em assentamentos de reforma agrária no Rio Grande do Norte

The rural settlements represent a mark in the expensive historical process of fight by the land in Brazil. At first offer basic terms of survival, through the access the land and of the fundamental supports for exploration. At the same time, have stimulated organization forms politicizes of the families who manage to work with the new challenges of the everyday. The moment that follows the land conquest, and therefore, the settlements construction while life and work project, it is crossed for objective and subjective demands, with highlight for options of agricultural production and strategies of collective action. Originally formed as representation instance legitimates of the families - front to the government and social actors - the settlers associations are private spaces for political sociability, that guided by principles participative, can lead the settlers the new conquests through indeed democratic experiences. The goal of this work is to comprehend the participation forms in the scope of these associations and the way as that translates in life best terms for the group, from the settlements experiences located in the Territories of the Citizenship Mato Grande and Açu-Mossoró, in Rio Grande do Norte's State. The theoretical conceptions that guide this analysis are concentrate on discussions about democracy and participation (Patermam, Putnam, Bodernave) and in the reflections about the rural world (Medeiros, Martins, Woodman e Woodman and Bergamansco). About methodological, different point of view strategies were developed: The direct observation, the application in locate of questionnaires to the families settlers and interviews semi-structured with the internal leaderships. With that could verify that the participation forms in the associations operate in two heartfelt: Of a side, they promote assimilation opportunities of democratic abilities accompanied of notions of social rights and redefinition of political standards; Of another, it offers indeed the possibility of the settlers lead, with relative autonomy, the political organization and her changes in direction to a way of life that wish to have in the settling

OBALUAIÊ: um estudo sobre o estigma no convívio com o HIV/Aids em terreiros de Umbanda na cidade de Fortaleza-Ceará

The tradition and living in African-Brazilian religious spaces, called yards, reveal how dynamic the reproduction and exchange of knowledge are, and that through their worldview, reveal ways of dealing with health and disease. The yards are culturally rich territories, in which people shape concepts, practices, and beliefs about health, disease and forms of healing, passed on from generation to generation through oral tradition. With the advent of HIV/AIDS from the 80s, a new challenge is established in the community of the yards and in the individual trajectories of people affected by the disease, who since an early age participate in this religious practice. The objective of this research is the analysis on the stigma in living with HIV/AIDS in yards of Umbanda in Fortaleza-Ceará, considering the (re)production of social dramas experienced by the community in question. During the investigation we adopted two basic parameters: the first one considers the understanding of the reproduction of stigma (or deteriorated identity) in relation to HIV/AIDS in its socio-historical dimension and its effects in the investigated context (Goffman, 1988). And the second one refers to the creation and reproduction of social dramas as a social experience carried through learning, handling and symbolic performance, which is reproduced in four stages: rupture, crisis, corrective action and reintegration (Turner, 1971)

Identidade e participação da comunidade rural nos processos de desenvolvimento local:desafios e competências do regulado de Nhambita-Moçambique

This thesis is defined as a reflection on the mechanisms of expression and insertion of the homo situs in the participatory governance in Mozambique. For a better understanding of this social fact, it was settled a periodization which covered the decline of colonialism at the time of the independence, which was proclaimed in June 1975, the civil war that lasted over 16 years and the period of the democratic State, further established. Therefore, we sought to understand the mechanisms and failures of the participation of the homo situs in local development projects that absorbed the needs and problems of these peasants, not mobilizing the skills and social competences of these communities. It would be essential for the homo situs a genuine democratic practice involving a political culture based on the social construction of the territories of the traditional man which was characterized by being procedural and historical, finding in participation its higher base. In this context, it would be desirable that the community development in Mozambique could contemplate and respect the choices of the homo situs. For this purpose, it would be fundamental the consistency between theory and practice, which builds and rebuilds, continually the competence of the peasants, facilitating the possibility of realization of their primordial aspirations. In the research, it became apparent that there is not a continuous process of participation of the rural communities, which appear as participants, only at the time of the implementation of the activities. Therefore, even having the participation of the communities expected by the law, with predictable moments of discussion and necessary conditions for that, the State failed to establish an ongoing process of democratic dialogue with traditional populations, as well as it failed to organize, properly, accurate informational bases to help solve the problems of rural areas. These facts have led to obstacles to the process of conquest of the human and civil rights of the traditional communities

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE and HUMAN CONSEQUENCES of AFRICANIZED BEE STINGS IN THE AMERICAS

In 1956, Africanized bees began to spread in the American continent from southern Brazil, where original African bees mated with European bees. A few years later, in 1990, these Africanized bees reached the United States and were found in Texas. Currently, these hybrid bees are found in several North American states and will probably reach the Canadian border in the future. Although the presence of Africanized bees had produced positive effects on Brazilian economy, including improvement in crop pollination and in honey production, turning Brazil into a major exporter, the negative impacts-such as swarming, aggressive behavior, and the ability to mass attack-resulted in serious and fatal envenomation with humans and animals. Victims of bee attacks usually develop a severe envenomation syndrome characterized by the release of a large amount of cytokines [interleukins (IL) IL-1, IL-6, IL-8], and tumor necrosis factor (TNF). Subsequently, such cytokines produce an acute inflammatory response that triggers adverse effects on skeletal muscles; bone marrow; hepatic and renal functions; and cardiovascular, central nervous, and immune systems. Finally, the aim of the present review is to study historical characteristics and current status of Africanized bees' spread, the composition of their venom, the impact of the bees on the Brazilian economy and ecology, and clinical aspects of their stings including immune response, and to suggest a protocol for bee sting management since there is no safe and effective antivenom available.

As transformações fundiárias da comunidade de sibaúma-rn com o advento do turismo

The genesis of the research emerges from reflection about the space dynamics of the capital and to the capital. The expansion and the incorporation of territory for capital reveal, in part, strategies of the capitalism production way, which shows the search for accumulation conditions, expanding the alternatives of territory use that is, nowadays, selective and uneven. The present work verified the mechanisms where the capital imposes its practices through the agrarian structure and the valuation of land market, meaning, in our knowledge, that the reproduction of inequalities is showed, many times, by the wide land speculation and the fast land valuation. For this, the snip space will be the Sibaúma community, belonging to Tibau do Sul district, located in Rio Grande do Norte state. It‟s a rural area that has, gradually, changing through the advent of urban characteristics, given the association of public and private investments, both domestic and international. Through the empirical observations, inside the Sibaúma community, it was found expansion strategies, incorporation and appropriation of territory by capital. As a result of this practice, it‟s occurring the land valuation and the presence of a process of socio-spatial segregation, through the encouraging the opening of new subdivisions, mainly for construction of second homes and tourism enterprises in order to meet the demand of a higher socioeconomic level. The areas still available in Sibaúma, constitute into a reserve of value for the achievement of capitalist rent, being a mechanism of capital reproduction. In this way, to studying the socio-spatial transformations, caused by spatial valuation, we turn to the project of social space designed by Santos(2006), from the perspective of capitalist production of space, by understanding the historical process of formation, the mechanisms and the actions of social actors that produce and consume space

Molecular systematic and historical biogeography of the armored Neotropical catfishes Hypoptopomatinae and Neoplecostominae (Siluriformes: Loricariidae)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Bouchardia rosea, a vanishing brachiopod species of the Brazilian platform: taphonomy, historical ecology and conservation paleobiology

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Historical aspects of Belly Dance and its practice in Brazil

Dance is regarded as one of the oldest art forms, which is based on evidence from prehistoric paintings found in caves; man expressed himself through body language prior to the development of spoken and written forms of communication. Dance was then used during important events, common to their era and culture, and often in religious rituals, to ensure good harvests - their economic activity. Belly-dance appeared approximately eight thousand years B. C. E. as a sacred dance firstly practiced by priestesses, and after that, it was popularized amongst women from Mesopotamia. Virtually considered an ancient form of physical exercise, it is still practiced by Bedouin women as a preparation for spontaneous delivery. In Brazil, belly-dance is widely practiced and our corporal culture enables its learning and improvement, resulting in professional dancers.