Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Conservadurismo, negación y diáspora

This contribution deals with social and political aspects affecting cultural life in Jalisco (Mexico), during the last forty years. It is, especially, a critical view on the regional deterioration of experimental music, analysing ethnic, religion, gender and other social components in one of the culturally foremost states of Mexico.

Diplomatian historiapolitiikka: Historia-argumenttien käyttö Kosovon kysymyksessä 1998-2010

Tutkielmassa tarkastellaan yhtä kansainvälisten suhteiden ja diplomatian lähihistorian pulmallisinta haastetta, kysymystä Kosovon asemasta vuosina 1998–2010. Se oli yksi keskeisimmistä 1990-luvun Jugoslavian hajoamissotien solmukohdista ja suhtautuminen siihen jakaa edelleen kansainvälisen yhteisön rivejä maailmanlaajuisesti. Tapaus on erityisen mielenkiintoinen myös nationalismin ja historiapolitiikan kannalta, sillä Kosovo on sekä albaanien että serbien kansallisen identiteetin ydinaluetta. Varhaishistorian myytit ja etnohistorialliset kertomukset ovat olleet tärkeässä asemassa lukuisissa aluetta koetelleissa konflikteissa. Tutkimuksen lähtökohtana on historiapolitiikan lähestymistavan välttämättömyys kansainvälisesti politisoituneen ”Kosovon kysymyksen” ymmärtämisessä. Historiapolitiikan teoreettisen viitekehyksen soveltuvuuden koettelu diplomatian argumentaation ja kansainvälisten suhteiden analysoinnissa on olennainen osa tutkimuksen tehtävänasettelua, sillä varsinkaan Suomessa ei vastaavaa tutkimusta ole ennen tehty. Samalla tutkimuksen tavoitteena on luokitella, analysoida ja vertailla eri valtioiden diplomaattisten historia-argumenttien käyttöä Kosovon kysymyksen yhteydessä sekä tarkastella näiden argumenttien kautta suhtautumista kansallisiin etnohistorian tulkintoihin ja niiden käyttöön 1990-luvun retoriikassa. Tutkielman tärkeimpiä alkuperäislähteitä ovat YK:n turvallisuusneuvoston Kosovoa käsittelevien istuntojen pöytäkirjat vuosilta 1998–2010 sekä huhti- ja heinäkuussa 2009 YK:n kansainväliselle tuomioistuimelle (ICJ) toimitetut, Kosovon itsenäisyysjulistuksen lainmukaisuutta käsittelevät, kirjalliset lausunnot ja kommentit. Tutkimuskirjallisuuden osalta tutkielman tärkeimpiä lähteitä ovat muun muassa Oliver Jens Schmittin, Marc Wellerin ja Pekka Visurin teokset sekä monet albaanien ja serbien kansallisia historiakäsityksiä ilmentävät teokset. Tutkielman metodologisena apuvälineenä on sovellettu suomalaisessa tutkimuksessa aikaisemmin hyvin vähän käytettyä Karl-Georg Faberin mallia historian poliitisen käytön kategorisoimiseksi. Faberin mallia käytetään paitsi historia-argumenttien luokittelun kehikkona, myös ajattelua ohjaavana historianfilosofisena kolmitasoisena mallina. Sitä on täydennytty Chaïm Perelmanin ja Lucie Olbrechts-Tytecan retoriikan tutkimuksen teorialla. Tutkimuksen tärkeimpiä johtopäätöksiä on historiapolitiikan näkökulman ja Faberin mallin hedelmällisyyden toteaminen diplomatian argumentaation analysoinnissa. Samalla tutkimus osoittaa, että historia-argumenteilla oli (ja on edelleen) Kosovon kysymyksessä oma erityinen roolinsa, joka vaihteli ajallisesti ja teemoittain. Toisaalta kansalliset historiakäsitykset, kuten käsitys omasta kansasta uhrina, näkyivät argumenteissa selvästi, toisaalta pyrkimyksenä oli vältellä nationalistiseksi tulkittavia historia-argumentteja. Lisäksi monissa argumenteissa vaaditiin väkivaltaisen historian jättämistä taakse eurooppalaisen tulevaisuuden toivossa.

Evidence in European Asylum Procedures

This thesis explores the particular framework of evidentiary assessment of three selected appellate national asylum procedures in Europe and discusses the relationship between these procedures, on the one hand, and between these procedures and other legal systems, including the EU legal order and international law, on the other. A theme running throughout the thesis is the EU strivings towards approximation of national asylum procedures and my study analyses the evidentiary assessment of national procedures with the aim of pinpointing similarities and differences, and the influences which affect these distinctions. The thesis first explores the frames construed for national evidentiary solutions by studying the object of decision-making and the impact of legal systems outside the national. Second, the study analyses the factual evidentiary assessment of three national procedures - German, Finnish and English. Thirdly, the study explores the interrelationship between these procedures and the legal systems influencing them and poses questions in relation to the strivings of EU and methods of convergence. The thesis begins by stating the framework and starting points for the research. It moves on to establish keys of comparison concerning four elements of evidentiary assessment that are of importance to any appellate asylum procedure, and that can be compared between national procedures, on the one hand, and between international, regional and national frameworks, on the other. Four keys of comparison are established: the burden of proof, demands for evidentiary robustness, the standard of proof and requirements for the methods of evidentiary assessment. These keys of comparison are then identified in three national appellate asylum procedures, and in order to come to conclusions on the evidentiary standards of the appellate asylum procedures, relevant elements of the asylum procedures in general are presented. Further, institutional, formal and procedural matters which have an impact on the evidentiary standards in the national appellate procedures are analysed. From there, the thesis moves on to establish the relationship between national evidentiary standards and the legal systems which affect them, and gives reasons for similarities and divergences. Further, the thesis studies the impact of the national frameworks on the regional and international level. Lastly, the dissertation makes a de lege ferenda survey of the relationship between EU developments, the goal of harmonization in relation to national asylum procedures and the particular feature of evidentiary standards in national appellate asylum procedures. Methodology The thesis follows legal dogmatic methods. The aim is to analyse legal norms and legal constructions and give them content and context. My study takes as its outset an understanding of the purposes for legal research also regarding evidence and asylum to determine the contents of valid law through analysis and systematization. However, as evidentiary issues traditionally are normatively vaguely defined, a strict traditional normative dogmatic approach is not applied. For the same reason a traditionalist and strict legal positivism is not applied. The dogmatics applied to the analysis of the study is supported by practical analysis. The aim is not only to reach conclusions concerning the contents of legal norms and the requirements of law, but also to study the use and practical functioning of these norms, giving them a practcial context. Further, the study relies on a comparative method. A functionalist comparative method is employed and keys of comparison are found in evidentiary standards of three selected national appellate asylum procedures. The functioning equivalences of German, Finnish and English evidentiary standards of appellate asylum procedures are compared, and they are positioned in an European and international legal setting. Research Results The thesis provides results regarding the use of evidence in national appellate asylum procedures. It is established that evidentiary solutions do indeed impact on the asylum procedure and that the results of the procedure are dependent on the evidentiary solutions made in the procedures. Variations in, amongst other things, the interpretation of the burden of proof, the applied standard of proof and the method for determining evidentiary value, are analysed. It is established that national impacts play an important role in the adaptation of national appellate procedures to external requirements. Further, it is established that the impact of national procedures on as well the international framework as on EU law varies between the studied countries, partly depending on the position of the Member State in legislative advances at the EU level. In this comparative study it is, further, established that the impact of EU requirements concerning evidentiary issues may be have positive as well as negative effects with regard to the desired harmonization. It is also concluded that harmonization using means of convergence that primaly target legal frameworks may not in all instances be optimal in relation to evidentiary standards, and that more varied and pragmatic means of convergence must be introduced in order to secure harmonization also in terms of evidence. To date, legal culture and traditions seem to prevail over direct efforts at procedural harmonization.

Embedded Storytelling and Gender Negotiations in Githa Hariharan's First Three Novels

This thesis treats Githa Hariharan s first three novels The Thousand Faces of Night (1992), The Ghosts of Vasu Master (1994) and When Dreams Travel (1999) as a trilogy, in which Hariharan studies the effects of storytelling from different perspectives. The thesis examines the relationship between embedded storytelling and the primary narrative level, the impact of character-bound storytelling on personal development and interpersonal relationships. Thus, I assume that an analysis of the instabilities between characters, and tensions between sets of values introduced through storytelling displays the development of the central characters in the novels. My focus is on the tensions between different sets of values and knowledge systems and their impact on the gender negotiations. The tensions are articulated through a resistance and/or adherence to a cultural narrative, that is, a formula, which underlies specific narratives. Conveyed or disputed by embedded storytelling, the cultural narrative circumscribes what it means to be gendered in Hariharan s novels. The analysis centres on how the narratee in The Thousand Faces of Night and the storyteller in The Ghosts of Vasu Master relate to and are affected by the storytelling, and how they perceive their gendered positions. The analysis of the third novel When Dreams Travel focuses on storytelling, and its relationship to power and representation. I argue that Hariharan's use of embedded storytelling is a way to renegotiate and even reconceptualise gender. Hariharan s primary concern in all three novels is the tensions between tradition or repetition, and change, and how they affect gender. Although the novels feature ancient mythical heroes, mice and flies, or are set in a fantasy world of jinnis and ghouls, they are, I argue, deeply concerned with contemporary issues. Whereas the first novel questions the demands set by family and society on the individual, the second strives to articulate an ethical relationship between the self and the other. The third novel examines the relationship between representation and power. These issues could not be more contemporary, and they loom large over both the regional and global arenas.

Evaluating the regional and distributional impacts of forestry cost-share payments.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

Contrained linear spectral unmixing technique for regional land cover mapping using MODIS data

Over the last few decades, there has been a significant land cover (LC) change across the globe due to the increasing demand of the burgeoning population and urban sprawl. In order to take account of the change, there is a need for accurate and up- to-date LC maps. Mapping and monitoring of LC in India is being carried out at national level using multi-temporal IRS AWiFS data. Multispectral data such as IKONOS, Landsat- TM/ETM+, IRS-1C/D LISS-III/IV, AWiFS and SPOT-5, etc. have adequate spatial resolution (~ 1m to 56m) for LC mapping to generate 1:50,000 maps. However, for developing countries and those with large geographical extent, seasonal LC mapping is prohibitive with data from commercial sensors of limited spatial coverage. Superspectral data from the MODIS sensor are freely available, have better temporal (8 day composites) and spectral information. MODIS pixels typically contain a mixture of various LC types (due to coarse spatial resolution of 250, 500 and 1000 m), especially in more fragmented landscapes. In this context, linear spectral unmixing would be useful for mapping patchy land covers, such as those that characterise much of the Indian subcontinent. This work evaluates the existing unmixing technique for LC mapping using MODIS data, using end- members that are extracted through Pixel Purity Index (PPI), Scatter plot and N-dimensional visualisation. The abundance maps were generated for agriculture, built up, forest, plantations, waste land/others and water bodies. The assessment of the results using ground truth and a LISS-III classified map shows 86% overall accuracy, suggesting the potential for broad-scale applicability of the technique with superspectral data for natural resource planning and inventory applications.

On Selection of Features for Regional Hydrologic Studies

Feature selection is an important first step in regional hydrologic studies (RHYS). Over the past few decades, advances in data collection facilities have resulted in development of data archives on a variety of hydro-meteorological variables that may be used as features in RHYS. Currently there are no established procedures for selecting features from such archives. Therefore, hydrologists often use subjective methods to arrive at a set of features. This may lead to misleading results. To alleviate this problem, a probabilistic clustering method for regionalization is presented to determine appropriate features from the available dataset. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by application to regionalization of watersheds in conterminous United States for low flow frequency analysis. Plausible homogeneous regions that are formed by using the proposed clustering method are compared with those from conventional methods of regionalization using L-moment based homogeneity tests. Results show that the proposed methodology is promising for RHYS.

Geographical Information System Approach for Regional Biogas Potential Assessment

The economic prosperity and quality of life in a region are closely linked to the level of its per capita energy consumption. In India more than 70% of the total population inhabits rural areas and 85-90% of energy requirement is being met by bioresources. With dwindling resources, attention of planners is diverted to viable energy alternatives to meet the rural energy demand. Biogas as fuel is one such alternative, which can be obtained by anaerobic digestion of animal residues and domestic and farm wastes, abundantly available in the countryside. Study presents the techniques to assess biogas potential spatially using GIS in Kolar district, Karnataka State, India. This would help decision makers in selecting villages for implementing biogas programmes based on resource availability. Analyses reveal that the domestic energy requirement of more than 60% population can be met by biogas option. This is based on the estimation of the per capita requirement of gas for domestic purposes and availability of livestock residues.

Regional Flood Frequency Analysis using Two-level Clustering Approach

Clustering techniques are used in regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) to partition watersheds into natural groups or regions with similar hydrologic responses. The linear Kohonen's self‐organizing feature map (SOFM) has been applied as a clustering technique for RFFA in several recent studies. However, it is seldom possible to interpret clusters from the output of an SOFM, irrespective of its size and dimensionality. In this study, we demonstrate that SOFMs may, however, serve as a useful precursor to clustering algorithms. We present a two‐level. SOFM‐based clustering approach to form regions for FFA. In the first level, the SOFM is used to form a two‐dimensional feature map. In the second level, the output nodes of SOFM are clustered using Fuzzy c‐means algorithm to form regions. The optimal number of regions is based on fuzzy cluster validation measures. Effectiveness of the proposed approach in forming homogeneous regions for FFA is illustrated through application to data from watersheds in Indiana, USA. Results show that the performance of the proposed approach to form regions is better than that based on classical SOFM.

Decision support system for regional electricity planning

Electricity appears to be the energy carrier of choice for modern economics since growth in electricity has outpaced growth in the demand for fuels. A decision maker (DM) for accurate and efficient decisions in electricity distribution requires the sector wise and location wise electricity consumption information to predict the requirement of electricity. In this regard, an interactive computer-based Decision Support System (DSS) has been developed to compile, analyse and present the data at disaggregated levels for regional energy planning. This helps in providing the precise information needed to make timely decisions related to transmission and distribution planning leading to increased efficiency and productivity. This paper discusses the design and implementation of a DSS, which facilitates to analyse the consumption of electricity at various hierarchical levels (division, taluk, sub division, feeder) for selected periods. This DSS is validated with the data of transmission and distribution systems of Kolar district in Karnataka State, India.