917 resultados para Fraud, risk, carbon markets, green criminology.


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Luminescent carbon dots (L-CDs) with high quantum yield value (44.7%) and controllable emission wavelengths were prepared via a facile hydrothermal method. Importantly, the surface states of the materials could be engineered so that their photoluminescence was either excitation-dependent or distinctly independent. This was achieved by changing the density of amino-groups on the L-CD surface. The above materials were successfully used to prepare multicolor L-CDs/polymer composites, which exhibited blue, green, and even white luminescence. In addition, the excellent excitation-independent luminescence of L-CDs prepared at low temperature was tested for detecting various metal ions. As an example, the detection limit of toxic Be2+ ions, tested for the first time, was as low as μM.

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Analysis of risk measures associated with price series data movements and its predictions are of strategic importance in the financial markets as well as to policy makers in particular for short- and longterm planning for setting up economic growth targets. For example, oilprice risk-management focuses primarily on when and how an organization can best prevent the costly exposure to price risk. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is the commonly practised instrument to measure risk and is evaluated by analysing the negative/positive tail of the probability distributions of the returns (profit or loss). In modelling applications, least-squares estimation (LSE)-based linear regression models are often employed for modeling and analyzing correlated data. These linear models are optimal and perform relatively well under conditions such as errors following normal or approximately normal distributions, being free of large size outliers and satisfying the Gauss-Markov assumptions. However, often in practical situations, the LSE-based linear regression models fail to provide optimal results, for instance, in non-Gaussian situations especially when the errors follow distributions with fat tails and error terms possess a finite variance. This is the situation in case of risk analysis which involves analyzing tail distributions. Thus, applications of the LSE-based regression models may be questioned for appropriateness and may have limited applicability. We have carried out the risk analysis of Iranian crude oil price data based on the Lp-norm regression models and have noted that the LSE-based models do not always perform the best. We discuss results from the L1, L2 and L∞-norm based linear regression models. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): B.1.2, F.1.3, F.2.3, G.3, J.2.

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A szerző egy, a szennyezőanyag-kibocsátás európai kereskedelmi rendszerében megfelelésre kötelezett gázturbinás erőmű szén-dioxid-kibocsátását modellezi négy termékre (völgy- és csúcsidőszaki áramár, gázár, kibocsátási kvóta) vonatkozó reálopciós modell segítségével. A profitmaximalizáló erőmű csak abban az esetben termel és szennyez, ha a megtermelt áramon realizálható fedezete pozitív. A jövőbeli időszak összesített szén-dioxid-kibocsátása megfeleltethető európai típusú bináris különbözetopciók összegének. A modell keretein belül a szén-dioxid-kibocsátás várható értékét és sűrűségfüggvényét becsülhetjük, az utóbbi segítségével a szén-dioxid-kibocsátási pozíció kockáztatott értékét határozhatjuk meg, amely az erőmű számára előírt megfelelési kötelezettség teljesítésének adott konfidenciaszint melletti költségét jelenti. A sztochasztikus modellben az alaptermékek geometriai Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-folyamatot követnek. Ezt illesztette a szerző a német energiatőzsdéről származó publikus piaci adatokra. A szimulációs modellre támaszkodva megvizsgálta, hogy a különböző technológiai és piaci tényezők ceteris paribus megváltozása milyen hatással van a megfelelés költségére, a kockáztatott értékére. ______ The carbon-dioxide emissions of an EU Emissions Trading System participant, gas-fuelled power generator are modelled by using real options for four underlying instruments (peak and off-peak electricity, gas, emission quota). This profit-maximizing power plant operates and emits pollution only if its profit (spread) on energy produced is positive. The future emissions can be estimated by a sum of European binary-spread options. Based on the real-option model, the expected value of emissions and its probability-density function can be deducted. Also calculable is the Value at Risk of emission quota position, which gives the cost of compliance at a given confidence level. To model the prices of the four underlying instruments, the geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is supposed and matched to public available price data from EEX. Based on the simulation model, the effects of various technological and market factors are analysed for the emissions level and the cost of compliance.

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There is a commonly presumed link among sexual risk behavior, substance use, and other psychosocial factors among adolescents. However, these relationships have been relatively understudied in detained, low-income, minority, substance abusing adolescents. This study addresses this gap in the literature with a secondary data analysis based on a sample of adolescent offenders in two detention and treatment centers in Miami-Dade County. Univariate, bivariate statistical analysis and multivariate logistic regressions were conducted on baseline data from structured interviews with 455 adolescents participating in an NIH funded prevention intervention. Data were analyzed to assess relationships among self-reported substance use, STD history, HIV/AIDS knowledge, condom use, condom use attitudes, and skills, peer and parental approval to use condoms, and race/ethnicity. The adolescent sample was 74.1% male, and 25.9% female and 35.4% African American, 25.1% non-African American Latino, 11.2% White, and 28.4% of other race/ethnicity categories. The mean age was 15.6 years. Results suggested that alcohol use (p < 0.001) and use of marijuana, cocaine and other drugs (p < 0.001) are significant variables when explaining the variability in sexual risk behaviors. Results also suggested that unprotected vaginal, anal, and oral sex increased with higher alcohol and drug use (p < 0.001) and that positive attitudes about personally using condoms (p < 0.001) were also significantly related to condom use. Logistic regressions showed that race/ethnicity was a significant control variable when explaining the variability of condom use. Being White and Latino were significantly associated with less condom use during oral and anal sex when compared to other racial/ethnic groups. These results indicated that risky sexual behavior and HIV infection risk are significantly associated with substance use, particularly alcohol use. Therefore, proper screening and identification of alcohol use, and condom use attitudes could maximize the efficacy of referrals to programs targeting both issues and increase the potential for appropriate primary and secondary prevention and treatment among adolescent detainees.

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Isotope signatures of mangrove leaves can vary depending on discrimination associated with plant response to environmental stressors defined by gra­dients of resources (such as water and nutrient limitation) and regulators (such as salinity and sul­fide toxicity). We tested the variability of man­grove isotopic signatures (d13C and d15N) across a stress gradient in south Florida, using green leaves from four mangrove species collected at six sites. Mangroves across the landscape studied are stressed by resource and regulator gradients repre­sented by limited phosphorus concentrations com­bined with high sulfide concentrations, respec­tively. Foliar d13C ratios exhibited a range from ­ 24.6 to –32.7‰, and multiple regression analysis showed that 46% of the variability in mangrove d13C composition could be explained by the differ­ences in dissolved inorganic nitrogen, soluble reac­tive phosphorus, and sulfide porewater concentra­tions. 15N discrimination in mangrove species ranged from –0.1 to 7.7‰, and porewater N, salin­ity, and leaf N:Pa ratios accounted for 41% of this variability in mangrove leaves. The increase in soil P availability reduced 15N discrimination due to higher N demand. Scrub mangroves (<1.5 m tall) are more water-use efficient, as indicated by higher d13C; and have greater nutrient use efficiency ratios of P than do tall mangroves (5 to 10 m tall) existing in sites with greater soil P concentrations. The high variability of mangrove d13C and d15N across these resource and regulator gradients could be a con­founding factor obscuring the linkages between mangrove wetlands and estuarine food webs. These results support the hypothesis that landscape fac­tors may control mangrove structure and function, so that nutrient biogeochemistry and mangrove-based food webs in adjacent estuaries should ac­count for watershed-specific organic inputs.

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Estimating the required rate of return for hotel properties is a daunting task because a lodging property is considered a hybrid between a real estate asset, and a revenue-generating enterprise affiliated with a hotel brand. Computing the expected rate of return for a hotel becomes even more complicated when a third party foreign investor/entrepreneur is the one performing the computation for an investment hotel in an emerging country. This clinical case illustrates the challenges surrounding the estimation of a project’s cost of equity in the multinational hotel industry. The results reveal that estimating cost of equity in emerging markets for hotel investments continues to be a conundrum. Future investors should make multiple adjustments and use several models when making their capital investment decisions.

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Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can contribute significantly to addressing the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions problem. Despite widespread political support, CCS remains unknown to the general public. Public perception researchers have found that, when asked, the public is relatively unfamiliar with CCS yet many individuals voice specific safety concerns regarding the technology. We believe this leads many stakeholders conflate CCS with the better-known and more visible technology hydraulic fracturing (fracking). We support this with content analysis of media coverage, web analytics, and public lobbying records. Furthermore, we present results from a survey of United States residents. This first-of-its-kind survey assessed participants’ knowledge, opinions and support of CCS and fracking technologies. The survey showed that participants had more knowledge of fracking than CCS, and that knowledge of fracking made participants less willing to support CCS projects. Additionally, it showed that participants viewed the two technologies as having similar risks and similar risk intensities. In the CCS stakeholder literature, judgment and decision-making (JDM) frameworks are noticeably absent, and public perception is not discussed using any cognitive biases as a way of understanding or explaining irrational decisions, yet these survey results show evidence of both anchoring bias and the ambiguity effect. Public acceptance of CCS is essential for a national low-carbon future plan. In conclusion, we propose changes in communications and incentives as programs to increase support of CCS.

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The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

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From an economic standpoint, the powder metallurgy (P/M) is a technique widely used for the production of small parts. It is possible, through the P/M and prior comminution of solid waste such as ferrous chips, produce highly dense sintered parts and of interest to the automotive, electronics and aerospace industries. However, without prior comminution the chip, the production of bodies with a density equal to theoretical density by conventional sintering techniques require the use of additives or significantly higher temperatures than 1250ºC. An alternative route to the production of sintered bodies with high density compaction from ferrous chips (≤ 850 microns) and solid phase sintering is a compression technique under high pressure (HP). In this work, different compaction pressures to produce a sintered chip of SAE 1050 carbon steel were used. Specifically, the objective was to investigate them, the effect of high pressure compression in the behavior of densification of the sintered samples. Therefore, samples of the chips from the SAE 1050 carbon steel were uniaxially cold compacted at 500 and 2000 MPa, respectively. The green compacts obtained were sintered under carbon atmosphere at 1100 and 1200°C for 90 minutes. The heating rate used was 20°C/min. The starting materials and the sintered bodies were characterized by optical microscopy, SEM, XRD, density measurements (geometric: mass/volume, and pycnometry) and microhardness measurements Vickers and Rockwell hardness. The results showed that the compact produced under 2000 MPa presented relative density values between 93% and 100% of theoretical density and microhardness between 150 HV and 180 HV, respectively. In contrast, compressed under 500 MPa showed a very heterogeneous microstructure, density value below 80% of theoretical density and structural conditions of inadequate specimens for carrying out the hardness and microhardness measurements. The results indicate that use of the high pressure of ferrous chips compression is a promising route to improve the sinterability conditions of this type of material, because in addition to promoting greater compression of the starting material, the external tension acts together with surface tension, functioning as the motive power for sintering process. Additionally, extremely high pressures allow plastic deformation of the material, providing an intimate and extended contact of the particles and eliminating cracks and pores. This tends to reduce the time and / or temperature required for good sintering, avoiding excessive grain growth without the use of additives. Moreover, higher pressures lead to fracture the grains in fragile or ductile materials highly hardened, which provides a starting powder for sintering, thinner, without the risk of contamination present when previous methods are used comminution of the powder.

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The Panel wishes to thank the members of the Standing Working Group on non-allowed pharmacologically active substances in food and feed and their reference points for action (2015–2018): Metka Filipič, Peter Fürst, Laurentius (Ron) Hoogenboom, Anne-Katrine Lundebye, Carlo Stefano Nebbia, Michael O'Keeffe and Rolaf Van Leeuwen for the preparatory work on this scientific output, the hearing expert: Eva Persson, and EFSA staff members: Katleen Baert and Sofia Ioannidou for the support provided to this scientific opinion. The CONTAM Panel acknowledges all European competent institutions and other stakeholders that provided occurrence data on malachite green and leucomalachite green in food, and supported the data collection for the Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database.

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Acknowledgements: We thank INREV (the European Association for Investors in Non-Listed Real Estate Vehicles) for funding a previous version of this research and providing non-listed fund data as well as very useful comments. This version is published as Delfim, J.-C. and Hoesli, M., 2015, Risk Factor Analysis of European Non-Listed Real Estate Funds, Amsterdam: INREV. The usual disclaimer applies. We also thank three anonymous reviewers and the guest editor, Graeme Newell, for insightful remarks.

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The relationship between uncertainty and firms’ risk-taking behaviour has been a focus of investigation since early discussion of the nature of enterprise activity. Here, we focus on how firms’ perceptions of environmental uncertainty and their perceptions of the risks involved impact on their willingness to undertake green innovation. Analysis is based on a cross-sectional survey of UK food companies undertaken in 2008. The results reinforce the relationship between perceived environmental uncertainty and perceived innovation risk and emphasise the importance of macro-uncertainty in shaping firms’ willingness to undertake green innovation. The perceived (market-related) riskiness of innovation also positively influences the probability of innovating, suggesting either a proactive approach to stimulating market disruption or an opportunistic approach to innovation leadership.

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The oceans take up more than 1 million tons of CO2 from the air per hour, about one-quarter of the anthropogenically released amount, leading to disrupted seawater chemistry due to increasing CO2 emissions. Based on the fossil fuel-intensive CO2 emission scenario (A1F1; Houghton et al., 2001), the H+ concentration or acidity of surface seawater will increase by about 150% (pH drop by 0.4) by the end of this century, the process known as ocean acidification (OA; Sabine et al., 2004; Doney et al., 2009; Gruber et al., 2012). Seawater pH is suggested to decrease faster in the coastal waters than in the pelagic oceans due to the interactions of hypoxia, respiration, and OA (Cai et al., 2011). Therefore, responses of coastal algae to OA are of general concern, considering the economic and social services provided by the coastal ecosystem that is adjacent to human living areas and that is dependent on coastal primary productivity. On the other hand, dynamic environmental changes in the coastal waters can interact with OA (Beardall et al., 2009).

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Euryhaline decapod crustaceans possess an efficient regulation apparatus located in the gill epithelia, providing a high adaptation potential to varying environmental abiotic conditions. Even though many studies focussed on the osmoregulatory capacity of the gills, acid-base regulatory mechanisms have obtained much less attention. In the present study, underlying principles and effects of elevated pCO2 on acid-base regulatory patterns were investigated in the green crab Carcinus maenas acclimated to diluted seawater. In gill perfusion experiments, all investigated gills 4-9 were observed to up-regulate the pH of the hemolymph by 0.1-0.2 units. Anterior gills, especially gill 4, were identified to be most efficient in the equivalent proton excretion rate. Ammonia excretion rates mirrored this pattern among gills, indicating a linkage between both processes. In specimen exposed to elevated pCO2 levels for at least 7 days, mimicking a future ocean scenario as predicted until the year 2300, hemolymph K+ and ammonia concentrations were significantly elevated, and an increased ammonia excretion rate was observed. A detailed quantitative gene expression analysis revealed that upon elevated pCO2 exposure, mRNA levels of transcripts hypothesized to be involved in ammonia and acid-base regulation (Rhesus-like protein, membrane-bound carbonic anhydrase, Na+/K+-ATPase) were affected predominantly in the non-osmoregulating anterior gills.

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Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide threatens to decrease pH in the world's oceans. Coastal and estuarine calcifying organisms of significant ecological and economical importance are at risk; however, several biogeochemical processes drive pH in these habitats. In particular, coastal and estuarine sediments are frequently undersaturated with respect to calcium carbonate due to high rates of organic matter remineralization, even when overlying waters are saturated. As a result, the post-larval stages of infaunal marine bivalves must be able to deposit new shell material in conditions that are corrosive to shell. We measured calcification rates on the hard clam, Mercenaria spp.,in 5 post-larval size classes (0.39, 0.56, 0.78, 0.98, and 2.90 mm shell height) using the alkalinity anomaly method. Acidity of experimental water was controlled by bubbling with air-CO2 blends to obtain pH values of 8.02, 7.64, and 7.41, corresponding to pCO2 values of 424, 1120, and 1950 µatm. These pH values are typical of those found in many near-shore terrigenous marine sediments. Our results show that calcification rate decreased with lower pH in all 5 size classes measured. We also found a significant effect of size on calcification rate, with the smaller post-larval sizes unable to overcome dissolution pressure. Increased calcification rate with size allowed the larger sizes to overcome dissolution pressure and deposit new shell material under corrosive conditions. Size dependency of pH effects on calcification is likely due to organogenesis and developmental shifts in shell mineralogy occurring through the post-larval stage. Furthermore, we found significantly different calcification rates between the 2 sources of hard clams we used for these experiments, most likely due to genotypic differences. Our findings confirm the susceptibility of the early life stages of this important bivalve to decreasing pH and reveal mechanisms behind the increased mortality in post-larval juvenile hard clams related to dissolution pressure, that has been found in previous studies.