992 resultados para Finanza matematica, Probabilità e statistica, Approssimazioni saddlepoint


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One of the main activities in the petroleum engineering is to estimate the oil production in the existing oil reserves. The calculation of these reserves is crucial to determine the economical feasibility of your explotation. Currently, the petroleum industry is facing problems to analyze production due to the exponentially increasing amount of data provided by the production facilities. Conventional reservoir modeling techniques like numerical reservoir simulation and visualization were well developed and are available. This work proposes intelligent methods, like artificial neural networks, to predict the oil production and compare the results with the ones obtained by the numerical simulation, method quite a lot used in the practice to realization of the oil production prediction behavior. The artificial neural networks will be used due your learning, adaptation and interpolation capabilities

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The study of complex systems has become a prestigious area of science, although relatively young . Its importance was demonstrated by the diversity of applications that several studies have already provided to various fields such as biology , economics and Climatology . In physics , the approach of complex systems is creating paradigms that influence markedly the new methods , bringing to Statistical Physics problems macroscopic level no longer restricted to classical studies such as those of thermodynamics . The present work aims to make a comparison and verification of statistical data on clusters of profiles Sonic ( DT ) , Gamma Ray ( GR ) , induction ( ILD ) , neutron ( NPHI ) and density ( RHOB ) to be physical measured quantities during exploratory drilling of fundamental importance to locate , identify and characterize oil reservoirs . Software were used : Statistica , Matlab R2006a , Origin 6.1 and Fortran for comparison and verification of the data profiles of oil wells ceded the field Namorado School by ANP ( National Petroleum Agency ) . It was possible to demonstrate the importance of the DFA method and that it proved quite satisfactory in that work, coming to the conclusion that the data H ( Hurst exponent ) produce spatial data with greater congestion . Therefore , we find that it is possible to find spatial pattern using the Hurst coefficient . The profiles of 56 wells have confirmed the existence of spatial patterns of Hurst exponents , ie parameter B. The profile does not directly assessed catalogs verification of geological lithology , but reveals a non-random spatial distribution

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This work is located at the shield of research that defends the use of Mathematics History, based on the utilization of historical artifacts at teaching activities, at Mathematics classrooms, and at graduation courses for teachers of Elementary School and of the first grades of High School. The general objective is to examine the possibility of the use of historical artifacts, at teaching activities, at graduation courses for teachers of Elementary School and of the first grades of High School. Artifact, at this work, is comprehended as objects, documents, monuments, images and other kinds of materials that make sense to the Human actions at the past and that represent what have been said and done at the Human history. At the construction of the theoretical-methodological way of the research we have based ourselves upon the ideas of the authors that are engaged at the teachers formation; at researchers adherents to the use of Mathematics History (MH) as a methodological resource, and at studies accomplished that elucidate the role of the artifacts at the history and as a mediatory element of learning. We defend the thesis that the utilization of historical artifacts at teaching activities enables the increasing of the knowledge, the development of competencies and essential abilities to the teacher acting, as well as interact at different areas of the knowledge, that provides a conception of formation where the teacher improves his learning, learning-doing and learning-being. We have adopted a qualitative research approach with a theoretical and pratic study disposition about the elements that contribute to the teachers works at the classroom, emphasizing the role of the Mathematics history at the teacher s formation and as a pedagogical resource at the mathematics classroom; the knowledge, the competencies and abilities of the historical artifacts as an integrative link between the different areas of the knowledge. As result, we emphasize that the proposition of using the MH, through learning activities, at the course of teacher graduation is relevant, because it allows the investigation of ideas that originate the knowledge generated at every social context, considering the contribution of the social and cultural, political and economical aspects at this construction, making easy the dialog among the areas and inside of each one The historical artifact represents a research source that can be deciphered, comprehended, questioned, extracting from it information about knowledge of the past, trace and vestiges of the culture when it was created, consisting of a testimony of a period. These aspects grant to it consideration to be explored as a mediatory element of the learning. The artifacts incorporated at teaching activities of the graduation courses for teachers promote changes on the view about the Mathematics teaching, in view of to privilege the active participation of the student at the construction of his knowledge, at the reflection about the action that has been accomplished, promoting stimulus so the teachers can create their own artifacts, and offer, either, traces linking the Mathematics with others knowledge areas.

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In recent decades, the search for quality care has been widely discussed by the institutions and health professionals. In this context, it is the nurse coordinator of the process of providing nursing staff, reflecting the commitment to quality of care. In this process, it is the appearance of Infections Related to health care and its potential association with the workload in nursing as a valuable indicator of quality of care. Thus, this research contributes to studies to characterize the demand of nursing work to promote a safe healthcare practice. This study aimed to identify the association of nursing workload with the number of cases of Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia, urinary tract infection and central venous catheter infection in the intensive care unit. This is a quantitative research approach, descriptive, cross-sectional and prospective, held at Unimed Hospital in Natal-RN. The study population consisted of all patients treated in the Intensive Care Unit, Hospital for a period of 90 consecutive days in 2011. The convenience sample was compostapelos patients admitted to the ICU during the period of data collection, a total sample of 286 patients. To perform the data analysis software were used: Statistica 6.0, SPPS (Statistical Package for Social Sciences) version 17.0 (2004) and Excel 2007. In the descriptive analysis, we used Measures of Central Tendency and Measures of Dispersion or Variability and the use of nonparametric tests. Of the 286 patients, 88 were from the ICU and 198 ICU II II. Males predominated in the ICU I (51.1%) and female ICU II (57.6%) patients in the ICU I were aged 61-80 years (39.8%) followed by greater than 80 years (39.8%). In the ICU II, most of the patients were aged 61-80 years (38.9%) and then from 41 to 60 years (24.2%). In relation to the class of TISS inlet predominant class II in the two ICUs (59.1%), followed by Class III also in the two units (34.6%). Most patients (70.6%) out of the ICUs belonging to class II TISS. In the ICU I, the average number of forms of the TISS 28 was 6, has in ICU II this value drops to 3.2 forms. The overall mean was 19.9 TISS points in ICU patients I and ICU II.the 17 points in the average hours required to provide adequate nursing care to patients in the ICU I found that is 10 , 7 hours, and the ICU II 9.2 hours. It was found that the time provided by the nursing staff were higher in ICU II, with an average of 19 hours available for nurses in this sector. In the ICU I, which showed higher need of available hours, it was found that the mean value of 12.7 available hours. It was found that only 2.4% of patients had these units Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia, 1.0% were infected central venous catheter and 1.4% of patients had urinary tract infection. Infection associated with health care occurs, on average, on the tenth day of hospitalization. In the ICU II, this average value extends to the twelfth day with an excess of 2.7 hours of nursing care while in ICU I value decays to the ninth day of hospitalization with a deficiency of 12-hour assistance. It is concluded that patients generally showed a need for classification of semi-intensive care and has been assisted in their need to load. As for his association with the Related Infections Health will assist this analysis could not be performed due to the small number of notifications in this period. It is suggested further study how other factors related to infections me a longer period of analysis

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The present work has an objective of investigate the acceptability of consumption of the goat meat and studies the perception of university students on the productive sector of goats in the Northeast. The habit to eat goat meat has strong regional traditions and has been suffering the demographic, cultural, economic and personal influences. Currently, a new habit in the food consumers is observed and has been configuring itself a trend that concern with the health and welfare in general, in countries mainly developed. This fact comes directly contributing for the modernization of the production models, including the ambient conscience. The methodology applied includes bibliographical research, data-collecting through questionnaires applied in the UFRN (Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte ) and analysis of the data using statistic techniques assisted for software Statistica V6. It is concluded that the rate of consumption of goat meat is low in the population studied. The frequency of consumption is higher in times of leisure or to visit relatives. The descriptive analysis of the responses of interviewees shows ignorance of the production of goat meat and its importance to the state of Rio Grande do Norte.

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This research carried through an ergonomic study of the rank of learning activity of a IES, was applied a questionnaire with ergonomic pointers structuralized in scale to intervalar of semantic differential of 0 the 10, in 290 pupils with ages between 18 and 52 years distributed for 5 courses in 9 classrooms, the sample was of the simple random probabilist type. The used statistical techniques had been the descriptive analysis and the analysis of clusters through statistica software 5,0 considering p £ 0,0500. Involving the following 0 variable: Layout; Colors; Acoustics; Illumination; Temperature; Position; Didactic furniture, and Equipment. The gotten results point to consider that the layout of the rooms, the perception of acoustic comfort, the position of the pupils and the furniture of the searched classrooms had been the condicionantes that had been more distinguished negative how much to the perception of comfort of the user. The the 91,5 NPS varied of 57,9 dB(A) values above of recommended for classrooms in accordance with NBR 10152; NR 15; NR 17; It would carry nº 3214/1978, of the Ministry of the Work and searched literature. The Illumination registered interval of 139 the 966 Lux, values are of the limits of interval recommended for classrooms according to NBR 5413 and NR 17. The thermal temperature registered interval of 24° 25,9ºC; URA 41,6 79.1% and the 0.1 air speed 1,0 m/s, values above of recommended for classrooms according to NBR the 6401 and NR 17. The research still suggests that it would have associations between pains in the body the positions of the pupils and the furniture of the classrooms. The results suggest research especially add for the conditions thermal and acoustics of the classrooms

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The objective in the facility location problem with limited distances is to minimize the sum of distance functions from the facility to the customers, but with a limit on each distance, after which the corresponding function becomes constant. The problem has applications in situations where the service provided by the facility is insensitive after a given threshold distance (eg. fire station location). In this work, we propose a global optimization algorithm for the case in which there are lower and upper limits on the numbers of customers that can be served

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The objective of this work was to investigate the factors that inhibit the use of Environmental Techniques in the Gas Station of the city of Natal/RN. For this, a survey with the aid of a questionnaire was used like research instrument. It s used a sample for convenience, not probabilistic. For collection of the data, it was used directly application of the questionnaire to the Managers or Assistant managers of the gas station, in accordance with its availability or presence. The data was collected in all the regions of Natal (North, South, East and West). The population in accordance with the data of the ANP of September 2005 is of 111 ranks and the collected sample was of 86. To carry through the analysis of the data of this research had been used softwares Excel and Statistic version 5.0, for Windows. The analysis of data is divided in two parts; descriptive analysis and analysis of groupings (clusters). The results showed that bigger part of the interviewed ones has between 30 and 39 years of age; they have second grade completed; they had declared to have little between and reasonable knowledge how much to the use of Clean Technology (CT) in gas station; and a small part of the interviewed ones had informed to have much knowledge how much the resolutions of the CONAMA established for the Gas Station. Of the searched ranks, the majority is national(76.7%); the most accurate practice environmental used in the gas station are: it collects selective of oil used or contaminated and ecological tanks - coated with strengthened fibre glass; great part of the interviewed ones (33.8%) informed that never the TL makes planning of referring future action; about of the half of the interviewed ones (84.9%) they had more declared that its employees have of none to a reasonable level of training for deal with problems that compromise the environment; the majority of the ranks (72.1%) functions has for more then six years. It is observed that almost all the interviewed ones (96.5%) evaluate as being important or very important the implantation of CT in Gas Station and the great majority (82.1%) evaluates the difficulty in if implanting these technologies in Gas Station as being easy or very easy. In the analysis of cluster, it was verified existence of two groupings (as much in the variable of the barriers and benefits), being that inside of each clusters exists homogeneity and between clusters exists heterogeneity. In reality, everything is important or very important in the opinion of the interviewed ones. There only exists a small significant difference that separates them in clusters

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The vehicles are the main mobile sources of carbon monoxide (CO) and unburned hydrocarbons (HC) released into the atmosphere. In the last years the increment of the fleet of vehicles in the municipal district of Natal-RN it is contributing to the increase of the emissions of those pollutants. The study consisted of a statistical analysis of the emissions of CO and HC of a composed sample for 384 vehicles with mechanization Gasoline/CNG or Alcohol/Gasoline/CNG of the municipal district of Natal-RN. The tests were accomplished in vehicles submitted to Vehicular Safety's Inspection, in the facilities of INSPETRANS, Organism of Vehicular Inspection. An partial gases analyzer allowed to measure, for each vehicle, the levels of CO and HC in two conditions of rotation of the motor (900 and 2500 rpm). The statistical analysis accomplished through the STATISTICA software revealed a sensitive reduction in the efficiency of the converters catalytic after 6 years of use with emission average it is of 0,78% of CO and 156 (ppm) of HC, Which represents approximately 4 (four) times the amount of CO and the double of HC in comparison with the newest vehicles. The result of a Student s t-test, suggests strongly that the average of the emissions of HC (152 ppm), at 900 rpm, is 40% larger than at 2500 rpm, for the motor without load. This result reveals that the efficiency of the catalytic conversion is limited kinetically in low engine speeds. The Study also ends that when comparing the emissions of CO and HC considering the influence of the fuels, it was verified that although the emissions of CO starting from CNG are 62% smaller than arising from the gasoline, there are not significant differences among the emissions of HC originating from of CNG and of the gasoline. In synthesis, the results place the current criteria of vehicular inspection, for exhaust gases, in doubt, leading the creation of emission limits of pollutant more rigorous, because the efficiency of the converters catalytic is sensibly reduced starting from 6 years of use. It is also raised the possibility of modifications in the test conditions adopted by the current norms, specifically in the speed engine, have seen that in the condition without load the largest emission indexes were registered in slow march. That fact that allows to suggest the dismissal of the tests in high speed engine, reducing the time of inspection in half and generating economy of fuel

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The production of roof tiles in the state of Rio Grande do Norte accounts for around 60% of the total of ceramic pieces produced. There is a need for investment to improve quality and productivity, thereby promoting technological innovations. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to determine the effect of kaolin, potassium feldspar and quartz in two standard formulations, as well as the effect of sintering temperature on the technological properties of linear firing shrinkage, water absorption and bending rupture stress, by fitting the statistical model and using multiple linear regression to assess the relationship between technological properties and independent variables. The raw materials were characterized using the following techniques: X-ray fluorescence (XRF), X-ray diffraction (XRF), rational analysis (RA), differential thermal analysis (DTA) and granulometric analysis (GA). The test specimens were compacted by uniaxial pressure (25 MPa), dried in a stove at 110 ºC for 24 hours and sinterized at 850 ºC, 950 ºC and 1050 ºC and held isothermal for 30 minutes. The results obtained indicate that the addition of kaolin to two standard formulations (M and R) promoted a reduction in water absorption values and an increase in bending rupture stress values. The sintering temperatures for group M that resulted in the lowest linear firing shrinkage and water absorption values were 850 ºC and 950 ºC, respectively, and the highest bending rupture stress values were reached at a temperature of 950 ºC. In the case of group R, the sintering temperature that obtained the lowest water absorption and linear firing shrinkage values was 850 ºC, and the highest bending rupture stress values were attained at a temperature of 1050 ºC. This work explains the statistical approach used to fit the model that describes the relationship between the technological properties and percentage of kaolin, quartz and feldspar, as well as the models that enable predictions, provided that the lower and upper limits of the percentage of clay minerals, flux and quartz used in this study are respected. Statistica 6 software was used and results were obtained by stepwise forward regression

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During the process of the salt production, the first the salt crystals formed are disposed of as industrial waste. This waste is formed basically by gypsum, composed of calcium sulfate dihydrate (CaSO4.2H2O), known as carago cru or malacacheta . After be submitted the process of calcination to produce gypsum (CaSO4.0,5H2O), can be made possible its application in cement industry. This work aims to optimize the time and temperature for the process of calcination of the gypsum (carago) for get beta plaster according to the specifications of the norms of civil construction. The experiments involved the chemical and mineralogical characterization of the gypsum (carago) from the crystallizers, and of the plaster that is produced in the salt industry located in Mossoró, through the following techniques: x-ray diffraction (XRD), x-ray fluorescence (FRX), thermogravimetric analysis (TG/DTG) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with EDS. For optimization of time and temperature of the process of calcination was used the planning three factorial with levels with response surfaces of compressive mechanical tests and setting time, according norms NBR-13207: Plasters for civil construction and x-ray diffraction of plasters (carago) beta obtained in calcination. The STATISTICA software 7.0 was used for the calculations to relate the experimental data for a statistical model. The process for optimization of calcination of gypsum (carago) occurred in the temperature range from 120° C to 160° C and the time in the range of 90 to 210 minutes in the oven at atmospheric pressure, it was found that with the increase of values of temperature of 160° C and time calcination of 210 minutes to get the results of tests of resistance to compression with values above 10 MPa which conform to the standard required (> 8.40) and that the X-ray diffractograms the predominance of the phase of hemidrato beta, getting a beta plaster of good quality and which is in accordance with the norms in force, giving a by-product of the salt industry employability in civil construction

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Environmental sustainability has become one of the topics of greatest interest in industry, mainly due to effluent generation. Phenols are found in many industries effluents, these industries might be refineries, coal processing, pharmaceutical, plastics, paints and paper and pulp industries. Because phenolic compounds are toxic to humans and aquatic organisms, Federal Resolution CONAMA No. 430 of 13.05.2011 limits the maximum content of phenols, in 0.5 mg.L-1, for release in freshwater bodies. In the effluents treatment, the liquid-liquid extraction process is the most economical for the phenol recovery, because consumes little energy, but in most cases implements an organic solvent, and the use of it can cause some environmental problems due to the high toxicity of this compound. Because of this, exists a need for new methodologies, which aims to replace these solvents for biodegradable ones. Some literature studies demonstrate the feasibility of phenolic compounds removing from aqueous effluents, by biodegradable solvents. In this extraction kind called "Cloud Point Extraction" is used a nonionic surfactant as extracting agent of phenolic compounds. In order to optimize the phenol extraction process, this paper studies the mathematical modeling and optimization of extraction parameters and investigates the effect of the independent variables in the process. A 32 full factorial design has been done with operating temperature and surfactant concentration as independent variables and, parameters extraction: Volumetric fraction of coacervate phase, surfactant and residual concentration of phenol in dilute phase after separation phase and phenol extraction efficiency, as dependent variables. To achieve the objectives presented before, the work was carried out in five steps: (i) selection of some literature data, (ii) use of Box-Behnken model to find out mathematical models that describes the process of phenol extraction, (iii) Data analysis were performed using STATISTICA 7.0 and the analysis of variance was used to assess the model significance and prediction (iv) models optimization using the response surface method (v) Mathematical models validation using additional measures, from samples different from the ones used to construct the model. The results showed that the mathematical models found are able to calculate the effect of the surfactant concentration and the operating temperature in each extraction parameter studied, respecting the boundaries used. The models optimization allowed the achievement of consistent and applicable results in a simple and quick way leading to high efficiency in process operation.

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The production of enzymes by microorganisms using organic residues is important and it can be associated with several applications such as food and chemical industries and so on. The objective of this work is the production of CMCase, Xylanase, Avicelase and FPase enzymes by solid state fermentation (SSF) using as substrates: bagasse of coconut and dried cashew stem. The microorganisms employed are Penicillium chrysogenum and an isolated fungus from the coconut bark (Aspergillus fumigatus). Through the factorial design methodology and response surface analysis it was possible to study the influence of the humidity and pH. For Penicillium chrysogenum and the isolated fungus, the coconut bagasse was used as culture medium. In another fermentation, it was used the mixture of coconut bagasse and cashew stem. Fermentations were conducted using only the coconut bagasse as substrate in cultures with Penicillium chrysogenum fungus and the isolated one. A mixture with 50% of coconut and 50% of cashew stem was employed only for Penicillium chrysogenum fungus, the cultivation conditions were: 120 hours at 30 °C in BOD, changing humidity and pH values. In order to check the influence of the variables: humidity and pH, a 2 2 factorial experimental design was developed, and then two factors with two levels for each factor and three repetitions at the central point. The levels of the independent variables used in ascending order (-1, 0, +1), to humidity, 66%, 70.5% and 75% and pH 3, 5 and 7, respectively. The software STATISTICA TM (version 7.0, StatSoft, Inc.) was used to calculate the main effects of the variables and their interactions. The response surface methodology was used to optimize the conditions of the SSF. A chemical and a physic-chemical characterization of the coconut bagasse have determined the composition of cellulose (%) = 39.09; Hemicellulose (%) = 23.80, Total Lignin (%) = 36.22 and Pectin (%) = 1.64. To the characterization of cashew stem, the values were cellulose (g) = 15.91 Hemicellulose (%) = 16.77, Total Lignin (%) = 30.04 and Pectin (%) = 15.24. The results indicate the potential of the materials as substrate for semisolid fermentation enzyme production. The two microorganisms used are presented as good producers of cellulases. The results showed the potential of the fungus in the production of CMCase enzyme, with a maximum of 0.282 UI/mL and the Avicelase enzyme the maximum value ranged from 0.018 to 0.020 UI/ mL, using only coconut bagasse as substrate. The Penicillium chrysogenum fungus has showed the best results for CMCase = 0.294 UI/mL, FPase = 0.058 UI/mL, Avicelase = 0.010 UI/mL and Xylanase = 0.644 UI/ mL enzyme, using coconut bagasse and cashew stem as substrates. The Penicllium chrysogenum fungus showed enzymatic activities using only the coconut as substrate for CMCase = 0.233 UI/mL, FPase = 0.031 to 0.032 UI/ mL, Avicelase = 0.018 to 0.020 UI/mL and Xylanase = 0.735 UI/ mL. Thus, it can be concluded that the used organisms and substrates have offered potential for enzyme production processes in a semi-solid cultivation

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This work aims to determine a better methodology to help predicting some operational parameters to a new design of mixer-settler on treating wastewater produced by petroleum industry, called MDIF (Misturador-Decantador à Inversão de Fases/ Mixer-Settler based on Phase Inversion MSPI). The data from this research were obtained from the wastewater treatment unit, called MSPI-TU, installed on a wastewater treatment plant (WTP) of PETROBRAS/UO-RNCE. The importance in determining the better methodology to predict the results of separation and extraction efficiency of the equipment, contributes significantly to determine the optimum operating variables for the control of the unit. The study was based on a comparison among the experimental efficiency (E) obtained by operating MSPI-TU, the efficiency obtained by experimental design equation (Eplan) from the software Statistica Experimental Design® (version 7.0), and the other obtained from a modeling equation based on a dimensional analysis (Ecalc). The results shows that the experimental design equation gives a good prediction of the unit efficiencies with better data reliability, regarding to the condition before a run operation. The average deviation between the proposed by statistic planning model equation and experimental data was 0.13%. On the other hand, the efficiency calculated by the equation which represents the dimensional analysis, may result on important relative deviations (up 70%). Thus, the experimental design is confirmed as a reliable tool, with regard the experimental data processing of the MSPI-TU

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The awareness of the difficulty which pupils, in general have in understanding the concept and operations with Rational numbers, it made to develop this study which searches to collaborate for such understanding. Our intuition was to do with that the pupils of the Education of Young and Adults, with difficulty in understanding the Rational numbers, feel included in the learning-teaching process of mathematics. It deals with a classroom research in a qualitative approach with analysis of the activities resolved for a group of pupils in classroom of a municipal school of Natal. For us elaborate such activities we accomplished the survey difficulties and obstacles that the pupils experience, when inserted in the learning-teaching process of the Rational numbers. The results indicate that the sequence of activities applied in classroom collaborated so that the pupils to overcome some impediments in the learning of this numbers