Assessing uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling via model validation

Stormwater pollution is linked to stream ecosystem degradation. In predicting stormwater pollution, various types of modelling techniques are adopted. The accuracy of predictions provided by these models depends on the data quality, appropriate estimation of model parameters, and the validation undertaken. It is well understood that available water quality datasets in urban areas span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data, which limits the applicability of the developed models in engineering and ecological assessment of urban waterways. This paper presents the application of leave-one-out (LOO) and Monte Carlo cross validation (MCCV) procedures in a Monte Carlo framework for the validation and estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off when models are developed using a limited dataset. It was found that the application of MCCV is likely to result in a more realistic measure of model coefficients than LOO. Most importantly, MCCV and LOO were found to be effective in model validation when dealing with a small sample size which hinders detailed model validation and can undermine the effectiveness of stormwater quality management strategies.

An observational analysis of the impact of board dynamics and directors’ participation on perceived board effectiveness

This study addresses calls for closer examination of board dynamics by offering an inside view of director interactions. Video-observations of three board meetings at each of two Australian corporations matched with director interviews and secondary data reveal distinct patterns of director interactions, their sources of variation and impact on perceived board effectiveness. Our data reveal that director interactions are multi-dimensional and dynamic: while group interactions across agenda items are similar, with a few directors leading the discussion, the contributing directors change across items. Moreover, directors’ inclusiveness and evenness of participation are associated with higher perceptions of board effectiveness. Last, we find that director interactions change with the nature of the items, board climate and board meeting arrangements. The study contributes to the literature by moving beyond the individual-level analysis of directors’ skills or independence, and offering a detailed view of how the joint group and individual dimensions of board dynamics affect board functioning.

The feasibility, delivery and cost effectiveness of drink driving interventions : a qualitative analysis of professional stakeholders

Many intervention programs have been designed to decrease the rate of drink driving by altering the behavioural characteristics that may lead a person to drink and drive. However, most programs target high risk and repeat offenders. There is very little research on the feasibility and effectiveness of first offender programs. This project is part of a larger program of research that focuses on first time offenders, in order to reduce the rate of subsequent drink driving which may result in a repeat offence. A number of professional stakeholders were approached and interviewed with a view to capturing and reflecting current drink driving related concerns while developing an intervention in the context of Australian drink driving related legislation. The qualitative interviews involved open ended questioning which led to the themes discussed in the analysis. Included in the interviews were senior representatives from the Magistrates Court, Queensland Transport, Probation & Parole, Queensland Corrective Services, Royal Automobile Club Queensland (RACQ), Intraface Consulting (drug & alcohol EAP), Brisbane Police Prosecution Corps, Queensland Police Service and private practice psychology. Issues such as delivery of interventions, feasibility and cost-effectiveness were discussed, as were potential content and design. It was generally agreed that a tailored online intervention imposed as a sentencing option would be the most effective for first time offenders in terms of cost, ease of delivery and feasibility. The development of an online intervention program for first offenders is widely supported by professional stakeholders.

Minimizing the effects of overfitting and collinearity in construction cost estimation : a new hybird approach

Research problem: Overfitting and collinearity problems commonly exist in current construction cost estimation applications and obstruct researchers and practitioners in achieving better modelling results. Research objective and method: A hybrid approach of Akaike information criterion (AIC) stepwise regression and principal component regression (PCR) is proposed to help solve overfitting and collinearity problems. Utilization of this approach in linear regression is validated by comparing it with other commonly used approaches. The mean square error obtained by leave-one-out cross validation (MSELOOCV) is used in model selection in deciding predictive variables.

Temporal Characterization of Ossification of the Crania in Australian Subadults: New standards for Age Estimation using Computed Tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of the ontogeny of cranial maturation, specifically: (1) the fusion timings of primary ossification centers in the basicranium; and (2) the temporal pattern of closure of the anterior fontanelle, to develop new population-specific age standards for medicolegal death investigation of Australian subadults. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating the potential of a contemporary forensic subadult Computed Tomography (CT) database of cranial scans and population data, to recalibrate existing standards for age estimation and quantify growth and development of Australian children. This research welcomes a study design applicable to all countries faced with paucity in skeletal repositories. Accurate assessment of age-at-death of skeletal remains represents a key element in forensic anthropology methodology. In Australian casework, age standards derived from American reference samples are applied in light of scarcity in documented Australian skeletal collections. Currently practitioners rely on antiquated standards, such as the Scheuer and Black1 compilation for age estimation, despite implications of secular trends and population variation. Skeletal maturation standards are population specific and should not be extrapolated from one population to another, while secular changes in skeletal dimensions and accelerated maturation underscore the importance of establishing modern standards to estimate age in modern subadults. Despite CT imaging becoming the gold standard for skeletal analysis in Australia, practitioners caution the application of forensic age standards derived from macroscopic inspection to a CT medium, suggesting a need for revised methodologies. Multi-slice CT scans of subadult crania and cervical vertebrae 1 and 2 were acquired from 350 Australian individuals (males: n=193, females: n=157) aged birth to 12 years. The CT database, projected at 920 individuals upon completion (January 2014), comprises thin-slice DICOM data (resolution: 0.5/0.3mm) of patients scanned since 2010 at major Brisbane Childrens Hospitals. DICOM datasets were subject to manual segmentation, followed by the construction of multi-planar and volume rendering cranial models, for subsequent scoring. The union of primary ossification centers of the occipital bone were scored as open, partially closed or completely closed; while the fontanelles, and vertebrae were scored in accordance with two stages. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate age at transition between union states for each center, and robust age parameters established using Bayesian statistics. In comparison to reported literature, closure of the fontanelles and contiguous sutures in Australian infants occur earlier than reported, with the anterior fontanelle transitioning from open to closed at 16.7±1.1 months. The metopic suture is closed prior to 10 weeks post-partum and completely obliterated by 6 months of age, independent of sex. Utilizing reverse engineering capabilities, an alternate method for infant age estimation based on quantification of fontanelle area and non-linear regression with variance component modeling will be presented. Closure models indicate that the greatest rate of change in anterior fontanelle area occurs prior to 5 months of age. This study complements the work of Scheuer and Black1, providing more specific age intervals for union and temporal maturity of each primary ossification center of the occipital bone. For example, dominant fusion of the sutura intra-occipitalis posterior occurs before 9 months of age, followed by persistence of a hyaline cartilage tongue posterior to the foramen magnum until 2.5 years; with obliteration at 2.9±0.1 years. Recalibrated age parameters for the atlas and axis are presented, with the anterior arch of the atlas appearing at 2.9 months in females and 6.3 months in males; while dentoneural, dentocentral and neurocentral junctions of the axis transitioned from non-union to union at 2.1±0.1 years in females and 3.7±0.1 years in males. These results are an exemplar of significant sexual dimorphism in maturation (p<0.05), with girls exhibiting union earlier than boys, justifying the need for segregated sex standards for age estimation. Studies such as this are imperative for providing updated standards for Australian forensic and pediatric practice and provide an insight into skeletal development of this population. During this presentation, the utility of novel regression models for age estimation of infants will be discussed, with emphasis on three-dimensional modeling capabilities of complex structures such as fontanelles, for the development of new age estimation methods.

Differential effects of monotony versus fatigue on driving performance and the effectiveness of various detection methods : implications for road safety in the ACT

Background Situational driving factors, including fatigue, distraction, inattention and monotony, are recognised killers in Australia, contributing to an estimated 40% of fatal crashes and 34% of all crashes . More often than not the main contributing factor is identified as fatigue, yet poor driving performance has been found to emerge early in monotonous conditions, independent of fatigue symptoms and time on task. This early emergence suggests an important role for monotony. However, much road safety research suggests that monotony is solely a task characteristic that directly causes fatigue and associated symptoms and there remains an absence of consistent evidence explaining the relationship. Objectives We report an experimental study designed to disentangle the characteristics and effects of monotony from those associated with fatigue. Specifically, we examined whether poor driving performance associated with hypovigilance emerges as a consequence of monotony, independent of fatigue. We also examined whether monotony is a multidimensional construct, determined by environmental characteristics and/or task demands that independently moderate sustained attention and associated driving performance. Method Using a driving simulator, participants completed four, 40 minute driving scenarios. The scenarios varied in the degree of monotony as determined by the degree of variation in road design (e.g., straight roads vs. curves) and/or road side scenery. Fatigue, as well as a number of other factors known to moderate vigilance and driving performance, was controlled for. To track changes across time, driving performance was assessed in five minute time periods using a range of behavioural, subjective and physiological measures, including steering wheel movements, lane positioning, electroencephalograms, skin conductance, and oculomotor activity. Results Results indicate that driving performance is worse in monotonous driving conditions characterised by low variability in road design. Critically, performance decrements associated with monotony emerge very early, suggesting monotony effects operate independent of fatigue. Conclusion Monotony is a multi-dimensional construct where, in a driving context, roads containing low variability in design are monotonous and those high in variability are non-monotonous. Importantly, low variability in road side scenery does not appear to exacerbate monotony or associated poor performance. However, high variability in road side scenery can act as a distraction and impair sustained attention and poor performance when driving on monotonous roads. Furthermore, high sensation seekers seem to be more susceptible to distraction when driving on monotonous roads. Implications of our results for the relationship between monotony and fatigue, and the possible construct-specific detection methods in a road safety context, will be discussed.

A systematic review of the effectiveness of warming interventions for women undergoing cesarean section

Women undergoing cesarean section are vulnerable to adverse effects associated with inadvertent perioperative hypothermia, but there has been a lack of synthesized evidence for temperature management in this population. This systematic review aimed to synthesize the best available evidence in relation to preventing hypothermia in mothers undergoing cesarean section surgery.