Continuous Off-the-Job Training in East Germany After Unification: Preliminary Results of an Evaluation of the Effects for Individual Workers, CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 05.9, 19 July, 1995

Retraining the labor force to match the demands of a modem economy is seen as an important task during the transition process from a centrally-planned to a market economy. This need was particularly pressing in East Germany, because the transition process has proceeded much faster than in the rest of Eastern Europe. Therefore, substantial resources have been devoted to this purpose. This paper analyzes the impact of continuous off-the-job training in East Germany from the point of view of individuals who were part of the labor force before German unification in 1990. It tries to answer questions about the average gains from participating in a specific type of training. Typical outcomes considered to measure those gains are income, employment status, job security, and expected future changes in job position. The methodology used for the evaluation is the potential outcome approach to causality. This approach has received considerable attention in the statistical literature over the last fifteen years and it has recently been rediscovered by the econometric literature as well. It is adapted to allow for important permanent and transitory shocks, such as unemployment, which influence the decision to participate in the training as well as future labor market outcomes. The empirical part is based on the first four waves of the Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP)-East (1990-1993). This panel data set has the advantage that the fourth wave contains a special survey on continuous training and that it allows keeping track of individual behavior on a monthly, respectively yearly, basis. The econometric analysis focuses on off-the-job training courses that began after unification and were completed not later than in early 1993. Although it is obviously too early to evaluate the long-term implications, the results suggest that there are no positive effects in the short run.

Capitalism without Capitalists? A Bottom-Up View of Industrial Transformation in East Germany. CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 00.1, 1999

Research on the industrial transition in East Germany and its outcomes has long focused on the strategy of the Treuhand­ anstalt (IHA). According to institutionalists, David Stark and Lazlo Brust!: (1998), the powerful position of the German privatization agency was not only a result of German unification but also a function of a pathway rooted in the institutional peculiarities of the East German economy before 1989. This paper shows that neither a simple top-down perspective nor the pathway approach, as Stark and Brust!: suggested, are adequate for explaining the internal dynamic of enterprise transformation as well as the outcomes of this process. First of all, the dissolution of the former organizational structures and hierarchies was less coordinated by the 1HA than is often assumed. Often Kombinates fell apart more quickly from below than they could be dismantled from above since enterprises or their units chose the exit­ option and had good reasons to do so. Secondly, although the privatization by the 1HA resulted in the clear dominance of Western investors, the new ownership structure of East German industry as a whole could be characterized as a "capitalism without (East German) capitalists." In fact, what exists in East Germany is rather a kind of "small business capitalism" (KleinbetriebsknpitalifmllS) in which small-and medium-sized producers dominate the landscape. Finally, there was no single starting point in 1989. Two different industrial orders shaped the industrial history of the East German regions which were not destroyed between 1945-89, but rather transformed into the state socialist production system. It can be shown that these older historical patterns are relevant for transition and their outcomes as well.

Social Citizenship and Institution Building: EU-Enlargement and the Restructuring of Welfare States in East Central Europe. CES Germany & Europe Working Paper, No. 01.2, April 2001

With the EU-enlargement process well underway, this paper focuses on social citizenship as a conceptual frame for analyzing the restructuring of social institutions in applicant countries in East Central Europe. So far, comparative welfare state analysis has concentrated mainly on the developed economies of the OECD-countries; there is little systematic analytical work on the transitions in post-communist Europe. Theoretically, this paper builds on comparative welfare state analysis as well as on new institutionalism. The initial hypothesis is built on the assumption that emerging patterns of social support and social security diverge from the typology described in the comparative welfare state literature inasmuch as the transformation of postcommunist societies is distinctly different from the building of welfare states in Europe. The paper argues that institutionbuilding is shaped by and embedded in the process of European integration and part of governance in the EU. Anticipating full membership in the European Union, the applicant countries have to adapt to the rules and regulations of the EU, including the "social acquis." Therefore, framing becomes an important feature of institutional changes. The paper seeks to identify distinct patterns and problems of the institutionalization of social citizenship.

Effective Regional Energy Policy Cooperation in South East Europe: A Proposal. CEPS Background Briefing Paper, 2 July 2015

Key Points. The implementation of regional energy policy cooperation initiatives is a priority of both the Energy Union and the so-called 2030 Energy and Climate Framework. The Energy Union proposal has singled out south east Europe as one area in which to act. This report identifies the seven key elements that need to be addressed to bring existing and planned regional energy policy cooperation initiatives in south east Europe to life: i) a sound geographical definition, ii) a governance structure, iii) voluntary participation, iv) exchange of information and best practice, v) the development of an external dimension, vi) regional infrastructure planning and development and vii) streamlining the financing instruments across the region. The study finds that significant progress has been made in many areas, and makes concrete proposals to unlock the full potential of coordination in those areas where there is limited progress. These proposals have been tested in discussions in the region.

The Middle East in the shadow of the Islamic State. OSW Point of View Number 52, August 2015

Since June 2014, Islamic State (IS) has been regarded as the principal security threat in the Middle East and one of the most important problems for European and global security. Islamic State, which for many years was just one of many terror organisations with links to al-Qaeda, has succeeded in achieving much more than other similar organisations: it has taken over control of large swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq by military means, created its own para-state structures in that area, and become the greatest civilisational challenge for the region in a century as it established a self-proclaimed caliphate and credibly pledged to expand further on a global scale. Those successes have been accompanied by widely publicised acts of systemic brutality which meets the definition of crimes against humanity. One outcome of these developments is the emergence of an exotic informal alliance to combatthe Islamic State, which has brought together all the states from the Middle East and many from beyond the region. However, contrary to what could have been predicted, after almost a year of the declared war against IS, the Caliphate still holds most of the ground it gained in 2014.

A Roadmap to Enhanced Regional Energy Policy: Cooperation in South East Europe. CEPS Special Report, No. 134/April 2016

Regional Energy Policy Cooperation has now gained political traction in the EU as a tool to advance the EU’s energy objectives. Cooperation and coordination is meant to facilitate the convergence of markets and policies, so while the creation of one EU Internal Energy Market remains the goal, regional cooperation is the tool with which to achieve that goal. Cooperation could become the stepping-stone towards the completion of the Internal Energy Market within the European 2030 climate and energy framework and beyond.

Russia’s ‘Middle East’: the escalation of religious conflicts in the Northern Caucasus. OSW Commentary Number 207/04.04.2016

The eastern part of the Northern Caucasus (Dagestan, Chechnya and Ingushetia) is becoming an increasingly distinct region in cultural, civilisational and social terms when compared to the rest of the Russian Federation. The situation on the ground there bears greater resemblance to the Middle East than to Russia: Islam is the key factor organising socio-political life, and conflicts inside the Muslim community, often involving bloodshed, are the driving power of developments in the region. The conflict is between the two main branches of Islam in the Northern Caucasus: Sufism linked to the official clergy and government, and Salafism which is gaining more and more supporters among young people in the Caucasus. Tension, including clashes over mosques, attacks, mass detentions, etc. has been observed mainly in Dagestan and Ingushetia.

Heavy metal contents in Fe-Mn nodules and crusts from R/V Vityaz polygons and stations in the East Indian Ocean

Regional variations in abundance, morphology, and chemical composition of Fe-Mn nodules have a zonal character. Due to circumcontinental zonality of terrigenous sedimentation the main mass of the nodules occurs in the pelagic part of the ocean, in areas of minimal sedimentation rates. In spatial variations in morphology and chemical composition of the nodules the latitudinal zonality is very clear and associated with latitudinal changes in facial conditions of sedimentation. Elevated contents of Mn, Ni, and Cu and of Mn/Fe ratio occur in nodules from the radiolarian belt. Changes of chemical composition of the nodules with depth (vertical zonality of mineralization) are confirmed. Local variations in abundance, morphology and chemical composition of the nodules are caused by ruggedness of relief and depth variations, variations in sedimentation rate, age of ore formation, intensity of diagenetic redistribution of metals.

(Table 1) Neutral and phenolic organohalogen compounds in blubber samples of ringed seals (Pusa hispida) from East Greenland

We report on the comparative bioaccumulation, biotransformation and/or biomagnification from East Greenland ringed seal (Pusa hispida) blubber to polar bear (Ursus maritimus) tissues (adipose, liver and brain) of various classes and congeners of persistent chlorinated and brominated contaminants and metabolic by-products: polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), chlordanes (CHLs), hydroxyl (OH-) and methylsulfonyl (MeSO2-) PCBs, polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs), OH-PBBs, polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) flame retardants and OH- and methoxyl (MeO-) PBDEs, 2,2-dichloro-bis(4-chlorophenyl)ethene (p,p'-DDE), 3-MeSO2-p,p'-DDE, pentachlorophenol (PCP) and 4-OH-heptachlorostyrene (4-OH-HpCS). We detected all of the investigated contaminants in ringed seal blubber with high frequency, the main diet of East Greenland bears, with the exception of OH-PCBs and 4-OH-HpCS, which indicated that these phenolic contaminants were likely of metabolic origin and formed in the bears from accumulated PCBs and octachlorostyrene (OCS), respectively, rather than being bioaccumulated from a seal blubber diet. For all of the detectable sum of classes or individual organohalogens, in general, the ringed seal to polar bear mean BMFs for SumPCBs, p,p'-DDE, SumCHLs, SumMeSO2-PCBs, 3-MeSO2-p,p'-DDE, PCP, SumPBDEs, total-(alpha)-HBCD, SumOH-PBDEs, SumMeO-PBDEs and SumOH-PBBs indicated that these organohalogens bioaccumulate, and in some cases there was tissue-specific biomagnification, e.g., BMFs for bear adipose and liver ranged from 2 to 570. The blood-brain barrier appeared to be effective in minimizing brain accumulation as BMFs were <= 1 in the brain, with the exception of SumOH-PBBs (mean BMF = 93±54). Unlike OH-PCB metabolites, OH-PBDEs in the bear tissues appeared to be mainly accumulated from the seal blubber rather than being metabolic formed from PBDEs in the bears. In vitro PBDE depletion assays using polar bear hepatic microsomes, wherein the rate of oxidative metabolism of PBDE congeners was very slow, supported the probability that accumulation from seals is the main source of OH-PBDEs in the bear tissues. Our findings demonstrated from ringed seal to polar bears that organohalogen biotransformation, bioaccumulation and/or biomagnification varied widely and depended on the contaminant in question. Our results show the increasing complexity of bioaccumulated and in some cases biomagnified, chlorinated and brominated contaminants and/or metabolites from the diet may be a contributing stress factor in the health of East Greenland polar bears.

Sea surface temperatures derived from alkenones from Late Quaternary sediments of the East Equatorial South Atlantic

Angola Basin and Walvis Ridge records of past sea surface temperatures (SST) derived from the alkenone Uk 37 index are used to reconstruct the surface circulation in the east equatorial South Atlantic for the last 200,000 years. Comparison of SST estimates from surface sediments between 5° and 20°S with modern SST data suggests that the alkenone temperatures represent annual mean values of the surface mixed layer. Alkenone-derived temperatures for the warm climatic maxima of the Holocene and the penultimate interglacial are 1 to 4°C higher than latest Holocene values. All records show glacial to interglacial differences of about 3.5°C in annual mean SST, which is about 1.5°C greater than the difference estimated by CLIMAP (1981) for the eastern Angola Basin. At the Walvis Ridge, significant SST variance is observed at all of the Earth's orbital periodicities. SST records from the Angola Basin vary predominantly at 23- and 100-kyr periodicities. For the precessional cycle, SST changes at the Walvis Ridge correspond to variations of boreal summer insolation over Africa and lead ice volume changes, suggesting that the east equatorial South Atlantic is sensitive to African monsoon intensity via trade-wind zonality. Angola Basin SST records lag those from the Walvis Ridge and the equatorial Atlantic by about 3 kyr. The comparison of Angola Basin and Walvis Ridge SST records implies that the Angola-Benguela Front (ABF) (currently at about 14-16°S) has remained fairly stationary between 12° and 20°S (the limits of our cores) during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. The temperature contrast associated with the ABF exhibits a periodic 23-kyr variability which is coherent with changes in boreal summer insolation over Africa. These observations suggest that surface waters north of the present ABF have not directly responded to monsoon-modulated changes in the trade-wind vector, that the central field of zonally directed trades in the southern hemisphere was not shifted or extended northward by several degrees of latitude during glacials, and that a cyclonic gyre circulation has existed in the east equatorial South Atlantic over the last 200,000 years. This scenario contradicts former assumptions of glacial intensification of the Benguela Current into the eastern Angola Basin and increased coastal upwelling off Angola.

Mineral analysis and geochemistry of Muehlig-Hofmannfjella granitoids, Central Drooning Maud Land, East Antarctica

Ferrosilite-fayalite bearing charnockite and biotite-hornblende bearing granite are exposed in Mühling-Hofmannfjella, central Dronning Maud Land of East Antarctica. Both are interpreted as essentially parts of a single pluton in spite of their contrasting mineral assemblages. Based on petrologic and geochemical studies, it is proposed that H2O-undersaturated parent magma with igneous crustal component that fractionated under different oxygen fugacity conditions resulted in the Mühlig-Hofmannfjella granitoids.

Whole rock analytical techniques and glas analytical techniques of silicic magmas from the South East Rift, Manus Basin

There has been much recent interest in the origin of silicic magmas at spreading centres away from any possible influence of continental crust. Here we present major and trace element data for 29 glasses (and 55 whole-rocks) sampled from a 40 km segment of the South East Rift in the Manus Basin that span the full compositional continuum from basalt to rhyolite (50-75 wt % SiO2). The glass data are accompanied by Sr-Nd-Pb, O and U-Th-Ra isotope data for selected samples. These overlap the ranges for published data from this part of the Manus Basin. Limited increases in Cl/K ratios with increasing SiO2, La-SiO2 and Yb-SiO2 relationships, and the oxygen isotope data rule out models in which the more silicic lavas result from partial melting of altered oceanic crust or altered oceanic gabbros. Rather, the data form a coherent array that is suggestive of closed-system fractional crystallization and this is well simulated by MELTS models run at 0.2 GPa and QFM (quartz-fayalite-magnetite buffer) with 1 wt % H2O, using a parental magma chosen from the basaltic glasses. Although some assimilation of altered oceanic crust or gabbro cannot be completely ruled out, there is no evidence that this plays an important role in the origin of the silicic lavas. The U-series disequilibria are dominated by 238U and 226Ra excesses that limit the timescale of differentiation to less than a few millennia. Overall, the data point to rapid evolution in relatively small magma lenses located near the base of thick oceanic crust; we speculate that this was coupled with relatively low rates of basaltic recharge. A similar model may be applicable to the generation of silicic magmas elsewhere in the ocean basins.

SHRIMP U-Pb dating of high-grade migmatites and related magmatites from Northwestern Oates Land, East Antarctica

High- to very-high-grade migmatitic basement rocks of the Wilson Hills area in northwestern Oates Land (Antarctica) form part of a low-pressure high-temperature belt located at the western inboard side of the Ross-orogenic Wilson Terrane. Zircon, and in part monazite, from four very-high grade migmatites (migmatitic gneisses to diatexites) and zircon from two undeformed granitic dykes from a central granulite-facies zone of the basement complex were dated by the SHRIMP U-Pb method in order to constrain the timing of metamorphic and related igneous processes and to identify possible age inheritance. Monazite from two migmatites yielded within error identical ages of 499 +/- 10 Ma and 493 +/- 9 Ma. Coexisting zircon gave ages of 500 +/- 4 Ma and 484 +/- 5 Ma for a metatexite (two age populations) and 475 +/- 4 Ma for a diatexite. Zircon populations from a migmatitic gneiss and a posttectonic granitic dyke yielded well-defined ages of 488 +/- 6 Ma and 482 +/- 4 Ma, respectively. There is only minor evidence of age inheritance in zircons of these four samples. Zircon from two other samples (metatexite, posttectonic granitic dyke) gave scattered 206Pb-238U ages. While there is a component similar in age and in low Th/U ratio to those of the other samples, inherited components with ages up to c. 3 Ga predominate. In the metatexite, a major detrital contribution from 545 - 680 Ma old source rocks can be identified. The new age data support the model that granulite- to high-amphibolite-facies metamorphism and related igneous processes in basement rocks of northwestern Oates Land were confined to a relatively short period of time of Late Cambrian to early Ordovican age. An age of approximately 500 Ma is estimated for the Ross-orogenic granulite-facies metamorphism from consistent ages of monazite from two migmatites and of the older zircon age population in one metatexite. The variably younger zircon ages are interpreted to reflect mineral formation in the course of the post-granulite-facies metamorphic evolution, which led to a widespread high-amphibolite-facies retrogression and in part late-stage formation of ms+bi assemblages in the basement rocks and which lasted until about 465 Ma. The presence of inherited zircon components of latest Neoproterozoic to Cambrian age indicates that the high- to very-grade migmatitic basement in northwestern Oates Land originated from clastic series of Cambrian age and, therefore, may well represent the deeper-crustal equivalent of lower-grade metasedimentary series of the Wilson Terrane.

Sedimentological, mineralogical, biogeochemical and micropaleontological parameters on sediment core PS69/849-2, Burton Basin, MacRobertson Shelf, East Antarctica

A multi-proxy study including sedimentological, mineralogical, biogeochemical and micropaleontological methods was conducted on sediment core PS69/849-2 retrieved from Burton Basin, MacRobertson Shelf, East Antarctica. The goal of this study was to depict the deglacial and Holocene environmental history of the MacRobertson Land-Prydz Bay region. A special focus was put on the timing of ice-sheet retreat and the variability of bottom-water formation due to sea ice formation through the Holocene. Results from site PS69/849-2 provide the first paleo-environmental record of Holocene variations in bottom-water production probably associated to the Cape Darnley polynya, which is the second largest polynya in the Antarctic. Methods included end-member modeling of laser-derived high-resolution grain size data to reconstruct the depositional regimes and bottom-water activity. The provenance of current-derived and ice-transported material was reconstructed using clay-mineral and heavy-mineral analysis. Conclusions on biogenic production were drawn by determination of biogenic opal and total organic carbon. It was found that the ice shelf front started to retreat from the site around 12.8 ka BP. This coincides with results from other records in Prydz Bay and suggests warming during the early Holocene optimum next to global sea level rise as the main trigger. Ice-rafted debris was then supplied to the site until 5.5 cal. ka BP, when Holocene global sea level rise stabilized and glacial isostatic rebound on MacRobertson Land commenced. Throughout the Holocene, three episodes of enhanced bottom-water activity probably due to elevated brine rejection in Cape Darnley polynya occured between 11.5 and 9 cal. ka BP, 5.6 and 4.5 cal. ka BP and since 1.5 cal. ka BP. These periods are related to shifts from warmer to cooler conditions at the end of Holocene warm periods, in particular the early Holocene optimum, the mid-Holocene warm period and at the beginning of the neoglacial. In contrast, between 7.7 and 6.7 cal. ka BP, brine rejection shut down, maybe owed to warm conditions and pronounced open-water intervals.

Dinoflagellate cyst records from the East Greenland continental margin

Late Weichselian and Holocene dinoflagellate cyst assemblages have been investigated at two stations situated close to the modern Polar Front at the continental margin oft East Greenland. Both the concentrations of dinoflagelate cysts and the assemblage composition reflect changes in the surface water conditions, occurring in distinct steps during the past 15,000 years. Low concentrations of dinoflagellate cysts during Termination Ia suggest harsh environmental conditions, most probably caused by an extensive sea-ice cover and/or a high influx of low salinity meltwater. A surface water warming was recorded from 13,000 - 12,000 years BP, related to the inflow of warmer water trom the North Atlantic into the western Norwegian-Greenland Sea. The interval between Terminations la and Ib was characterized by a strong seasonality with an extensive sea-ice cover in winter and relatively warm surface waters in summer. At the transition to the Holocene, a reorganisation of the hydrography resulted in surface water conditions characteristic for the Holocene with three well-defined major water masses and oceanographic fronts The modern water mass conditions at both stations were established at the end of Termination Ib, around 6,400 to 6,800 years BP. In general, the influence of colder surface waters was more pronounced at the location off Scoresby Sund throughout the Holocene. Arctic water had the strongest influence at both stations in the middle Holocene. A progressive cooling with an increase in sea-ice cover is time-transgressivelyrecorded at both stations during the Holocene, indicating that the Polar Front moved to its present position or that branches of the zonal currents expanded from the East Greenland shell eastward during tlie last 3,000 years.