The cover basement contact beneath the Rawil axial depression (Western Alps) - True amplitude seismic processing, petrophysical properties, and modeling

Since 1986, several near-vertical seismic reflection profiles have been recorded in Switzerland in order to map the deep geologic structure of the Alps. One objective of this endeavour has been to determine the geometries of the autochthonous basement and of the external crystalline massifs, important elements for understanding the geodynamics of the Alpine orogeny. The PNR-20 seismic line W1, located in the Rawil depression of the western Swiss Alps, provides important information on this subject. It extends northward from the `'Penninic front'' across the Helvetic nappes to the Prealps. The crystalline massifs do not outcrop along this profile. Thus, the interpretation of `'near-basement'' reflections has to be constrained by down-dip projections of surface geology, `'true amplitude'' processing, rock physical property studies and modelling. 3-D seismic modelling has been used to evaluate the seismic response of two alternative down-dip projection models. To constrain the interpretation in the southern part of the profile, `'true amplitude'' processing has provided information on the strength of the reflections. Density and velocity measurements on core samples collected up-dip from the region of the seismic line have been used to evaluate reflection coefficients of typical lithologic boundaries in the region. The cover-basement contact itself is not a source of strong reflections, but strong reflections arise from within the overlaying metasedimentary cover sequence, allowing the geometry of the top of the basement to be determined on the basis of `'near-basement'' reflections. The front of the external crystalline massifs is shown to extend beneath the Prealps, about 6 km north of the expected position. A 2-D model whose seismic response shows reflection patterns very similar to the observed is proposed.

ALDH1A3 loss of function causes bilateral anophthalmia/microphthalmia and hypoplasia of the optic nerve and optic chiasm.

The major active retinoid, all-trans retinoic acid, has long been recognized as critical for the development of several organs, including the eye. Mutations in STRA6, the gene encoding the cellular receptor for vitamin A, in patients with Matthew-Wood syndrome and anophthalmia/microphthalmia (A/M), have previously demonstrated the importance of retinol metabolism in human eye disease. We used homozygosity mapping combined with next-generation sequencing to interrogate patients with anophthalmia and microphthalmia for new causative genes. We used whole-exome and whole-genome sequencing to study a family with two affected brothers with bilateral A/M and a simplex case with bilateral anophthalmia and hypoplasia of the optic nerve and optic chiasm. Analysis of novel sequence variants revealed homozygosity for two nonsense mutations in ALDH1A3, c.568A>G, predicting p.Lys190*, in the familial cases, and c.1165A>T, predicting p.Lys389*, in the simplex case. Both mutations predict nonsense-mediated decay and complete loss of function. We performed antisense morpholino (MO) studies in Danio rerio to characterize the developmental effects of loss of Aldh1a3 function. MO-injected larvae showed a significant reduction in eye size, and aberrant axonal projections to the tectum were noted. We conclude that ALDH1A3 loss of function causes anophthalmia and aberrant eye development in humans and in animal model systems.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2014.

BACKGROUND: From most recent available data, we projected cancer mortality statistics for 2014, for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Specific attention was given to pancreatic cancer, the only major neoplasm showing unfavorable trends in both sexes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2014 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: In the EU in 2014, 1,323,600 deaths from cancer are predicted (742,500 men and 581,100 women), corresponding to standardized death rates of 138.1/100,000 men and 84.7/100,000 women, falling by 7% and 5%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate cancer) are lower than in 2009, falling by 8%, 4% and 10%, respectively. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favorable trends (-9% and -7%), but female lung cancer rates are predicted to rise 8%. Pancreatic cancer is the only neoplasm with a negative outlook in both sexes. Only in the young (25-49 years), EU trends become more favorable in men, while women keep registering slight predicted rises. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer mortality predictions for 2014 confirm the overall favorable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 20% in women, and the avoidance of over 250,000 deaths in 2014 compared with the peak rate. Notable exceptions are female lung cancer and pancreatic cancer in both sexes.

Ultrastructural description of Ceratomyxa microlepis sp. nov. (Phylum Myxozoa): a parasite infecting the gall bladder of Hemiodus microlepis, a freshwater teleost from the Amazon River

A new ceratomyxid parasite was examined for taxonomic identification, upon being found infecting the gall bladder of Hemiodus microlepis (Teleostei: Hemiodontidae), a freshwater teleost collected from the Amazon River, Brazil. Light and transmission electron microscopy revealed elongated crescent-shaped spores constituted by two asymmetrical shell valves united along a straight sutural line, each possessing a lateral projection. The spores body measured 5.2 ± 0.4 µm (n = 25) in length and 35.5 ± 0.9 µm (n = 25) in total thickness. The lateral projections were asymmetric, one measuring 18.1 ± 0.5 µm (n = 25) in thickness and the other measuring 17.5 ± 0.5 µm (n = 25) in thickness. Two equal-sized subspherical polar capsules measuring 2.2 ± 0.3 µm in diameter were located at the same level, each possessing a polar filament with 5-6 coils. The sporoplasm was binucleate. Considering the morphometric data analyzed from the microscopic observations, as well as the host species and its geographical location, this paper describes a new myxosporean species, herein named Ceratomyxa microlepis sp. nov.; therefore representing the first description of a freshwater ceratomyxid from the South American region.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) the new parameter of 2D texture analysis for the evaluation of 3D bone micro architecture status

X-ray is a technology that is used for numerous applications in the medical field. The process of X-ray projection gives a 2-dimension (2D) grey-level texture from a 3- dimension (3D) object. Until now no clear demonstration or correlation has positioned the 2D texture analysis as a valid indirect evaluation of the 3D microarchitecture. TBS is a new texture parameter based on the measure of the experimental variogram. TBS evaluates the variation between 2D image grey-levels. The aim of this study was to evaluate existing correlations between 3D bone microarchitecture parameters - evaluated from μCT reconstructions - and the TBS value, calculated on 2D projected images. 30 dried human cadaveric vertebrae were acquired on a micro-scanner (eXplorer Locus, GE) at isotropic resolution of 93 μm. 3D vertebral body models were used. The following 3D microarchitecture parameters were used: Bone volume fraction (BV/TV), Trabecular thickness (TbTh), trabecular space (TbSp), trabecular number (TbN) and connectivity density (ConnD). 3D/2D projections has been done by taking into account the Beer-Lambert Law at X-ray energy of 50, 100, 150 KeV. TBS was assessed on 2D projected images. Correlations between TBS and the 3D microarchitecture parameters were evaluated using a linear regression analysis. Paired T-test is used to assess the X-ray energy effects on TBS. Multiple linear regressions (backward) were used to evaluate relationships between TBS and 3D microarchitecture parameters using a bootstrap process. BV/TV of the sample ranged from 18.5 to 37.6% with an average value at 28.8%. Correlations' analysis showedthat TBSwere strongly correlatedwith ConnD(0.856≤r≤0.862; p<0.001),with TbN (0.805≤r≤0.810; p<0.001) and negatively with TbSp (−0.714≤r≤−0.726; p<0.001), regardless X-ray energy. Results show that lower TBS values are related to "degraded" microarchitecture, with low ConnD, low TbN and a high TbSp. The opposite is also true. X-ray energy has no effect onTBS neither on the correlations betweenTBS and the 3Dmicroarchitecture parameters. In this study, we demonstrated that TBS was significantly correlated with 3D microarchitecture parameters ConnD and TbN, and negatively with TbSp, no matter what X-ray energy has been used. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled ECTS 2011. Disclosure of interest: None declared.

Land use improves spatial predictions of mountain plant abundance but not presence-absence

Question Does a land-use variable improve spatial predictions of plant species presence-absence and abundance models at the regional scale in a mountain landscape? Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods Presence-absence generalized linear models (GLM) and abundance ordinal logistic regression models (LRM) were fitted to data on 78 mountain plant species, with topo-climatic and/or land-use variables available at a 25-m resolution. The additional contribution of land use when added to topo-climatic models was evaluated by: (1) assessing the changes in model fit and (2) predictive power, (3) partitioning the deviance respectively explained by the topo-climatic variables and the land-use variable through variation partitioning, and (5) comparing spatial projections. Results Land use significantly improved the fit of presence-absence models but not their predictive power. In contrast, land use significantly improved both the fit and predictive power of abundance models. Variation partitioning also showed that the individual contribution of land use to the deviance explained by presence-absence models was, on average, weak for both GLM and LRM (3.7% and 4.5%, respectively), but changes in spatial projections could nevertheless be important for some species. Conclusions In this mountain area and at our regional scale, land use is important for predicting abundance, but not presence-absence. The importance of adding land-use information depends on the species considered. Even without a marked effect on model fit and predictive performance, adding land use can affect spatial projections of both presence-absence and abundance models.

Intracortical connectivity of layer VI pyramidal neurons in the somatosensory cortex of normal and barrelless mice.

In mice, barrels in layer IV of the somatosensory cortex correspond to the columnar representations of whisker follicles. In barrelless (BRL) mice, barrels are absent, but functionally, a columnar organization persists. Previously we characterized the aberrant geometry of thalamic projection of BRL mice using axonal reconstructions of individual neurons. Here we proceeded with the analysis of the intracortical projections from layer VI pyramidal neurons, to assess their contribution to the columnar organization. From series of tangential sections we reconstructed the axon collaterals of individual layer VI pyramidal neurons in the C2 barrel column that were labelled with biocytin [controls from normal (NOR) strain, 19 cells; BRL strain, nine cells]. Using six morphological parameters in a cluster analysis, we showed that layer VI neurons in NOR mice are distributed into four clusters distinguished by the radial and tangential extent of their intracortical projections. These clusters correlated with the cortical or subcortical projection of the main axon. In BRL mice, neurons were distributed within the same four clusters, but their projections to the granular and supragranular layers were significantly smaller and their tangential projection was less columnar than in NOR mice. However, in both strains the intracortical projections had a preference for the appropriate barrel column (C2), indicating that layer VI pyramidal cells could participate in the functional columnar organization of the barrel cortex. Correlative light and electron microscopy analyses provided morphometric data on the intracortical synaptic boutons and synapses of layer VI pyramidal neurons and revealed that projections to layer IV preferentially target excitatory dendritic spines and shafts.

Alteration in neuromuscular function after a 5 km running time trial

The aim of this study was to characterize the effect of a 5 km running time trial on the neuromuscular properties of the plantar flexors. Eleven well-trained triathletes performed a series of neuromuscular tests before and immediately after the run on a 200 m indoor track. Muscle activation (twitch interpolation) and normalized EMG activity were assessed during maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) of plantar flexors. Maximal soleus H-reflexes and M-waves were evoked at rest (i.e. H (MAX) and M (MAX), respectively) and during MVC (i.e. H (SUP) and M (SUP), respectively). MVC significantly declined (-27%; P < 0.001) after the run, due to decrease in muscle activation (-8%; P < 0.05) and M (MAX)-normalized EMG activity (-13%; P < 0.05). Significant reductions in M-wave amplitudes (M (MAX): -13% and M (SUP): -16%; P < 0.05) as well as H (MAX)/M (MAX) (-37%; P < 0.01) and H (SUP)/M (SUP) (-25%; P < 0.05) ratios occurred with fatigue. Following exercise, the single twitch was characterized by lower peak torque (-16%; P < 0.001) as well as shorter contraction (-19%; P < 0.001) and half-relaxation (-24%; P < 0.001) times. In conclusion, the reduction in plantar flexors strength induced by a 5 km running time trial is caused by peripheral adjustments, which are attributable to a failure of the neuromuscular transmission and excitation-contraction coupling. Fatigue also decreased the magnitude of efferent motor outflow from spinal motor neurons to the plantar flexors and part of this suboptimal neural drive is the result of an inhibition of soleus motoneuron pool reflex excitability.

Folner sequences and finite operators

This article analyzes Folner sequences of projections for bounded linear operators and their relationship to the class of finite operators introduced by Williams in the 70ies. We prove that each essentially hyponormal operator has a proper Folner sequence (i.e. a Folner sequence of projections strongly converging to 1). In particular, any quasinormal, any subnormal, any hyponormal and any essentially normal operator has a proper Folner sequence. Moreover, we show that an operator is finite if and only if it has a proper Folner sequence or if it has a non-trivial finite dimensional reducing subspace. We also analyze the structure of operators which have no Folner sequence and give examples of them. For this analysis we introduce the notion of strongly non-Folner operators, which are far from finite block reducible operators, in some uniform sense, and show that this class coincides with the class of non-finite operators.

Molecular and physiological characterisation of lonotropic receptors in the sacculus in drosophila

Chemosensation is the detection of chemical signals in the environment that enable an animal to make informed decisions about food choice, mate preference or predator detection. Dissecting the molecular and neural mechanisms by which animals detect chemical cues is an important goal towards understanding how they interact with the environment. An attractive system to dissect the mechanisms of chemosensation is the olfactory system. One of the most-investigated olfactory systems is that of Drosophila melanogaster, a model organism that is amenable to a powerful combination of genetic and physiological analyses. Embedded within the antennal olfactory organ of Drosophila is an unusual sensory structure called the sacculus. The sacculus is comprised of three distinct chambers, each lined with several sensilla housing two to three neurons. Previous morphological, anatomical and surgical studies of sacculus neurons have implicated sacculus neurons in chemosensation, hygrosensation and/or thermosensation. While a subset of sacculus neurons have been physiologically characterised as temperature sensors, the role of this organ has remained largely mysterious, due to its inaccessibility to peripheral electrophysiological analysis. Recently a new family of olfactory receptors, the lonotropic Receptors (IRs), was identified. Five IRs are expressed in sacculus neurons providing the first selective molecular markers for these cells. In this thesis I describe the molecular, physiological and anatomical characterisation of these neurons. Genetic labelling of specific populations of sacculus neurons with anatomical (CD8:GFP) reporters has identified neurons in sacculus chambers I and II express IR40a+IR93a together with their co- receptor IR25a, while neurons in chamber III express IR64a with its co-receptor IR8a. Both these sets of neurons project to two distinct glomeruli in the antennal lobe; IR40a neurons project to the column and arm, IR64a neurons project to DC4 and DP1m. Through a live optical imaging screen I showed that these neurons are indeed olfactory and IR64a neurons recognise acidic ligands, while IR40a neurons recognise amine ligands. IR40a and IR64a neurons are in fact composed of anatomically and physiologically distinct subpopulations, strongly implying the existence of other factors that define their functional properties. My thesis identifies the sacculus as a specialised olfactory organ capable of detecting acids and bases, which are of widespread importance to insects. The data from my thesis along with data from other labs show the sacculus is composed of different populations of olfactory sensory neurons and thermosensory neurons. Comparative genomic analysis of sacculus IRs across insects reveals them to be among the most conserved of this receptor repertoire, suggesting that the sacculus represents an evolutionarily ancient insect olfactory acid-base sensor. - La détection des produits chimiques se trouvant dans l'environnement (perception chimiosensorielle) permet à un animal de choisir sa nourriture, son partenaire ou encore d'identifier ses prédateurs. Décortiquer les mécanismes moléculaires et neuronaux grâce auxquels les animaux détectent ces signaux chimiques permet de comprendre comment ces animaux interagissent avec leur environnement. Un système intéressant pour décortiquer ces mécanismes de perception chimiosensorielle est le système olfactif, de la drosophile (Drosophila melanogaster), aussi appelée mouche du vinaigre. C'est un animal modèle très utile grâce à la combinaison d'outils génétiques puissants et d'analyses physiologiques facilement réalisables. Dans l'antenne de la drosophile, qui est l'organe olfactif principal de cet animal, se trouve une structure appelée sacculus. Celui-ci est composé de trois chambres distinctes, chacune comprenant plusieurs sensilles à l'intérieur desquelles se trouvent deux à trois neurones. De précédentes études morphologiques et anatomiques des ces neurones ont déterminé qu'ils sont impliqués dans la perception des odeurs, de l'humidité et de la température. Malgré ceci, la fonction principale de cet organe reste largement inconnue, principalement car il est inaccessible aux analyses électrophysiologiques. Récemment, une nouvelle famille de soixante-six récepteurs olfactifs, nommés Récepteurs lonotropiques (IRs), a été découverte chez la drosophile. Cinq IRs sont exprimés dans les neurones du sacculus. Pour la première fois, une sélection de marqueurs moléculaires est disponible pour l'étude de ces cellules. Dans cette thèse, les caractéristiques moléculaires, physiologiques et anatomiques des neurones du sacculus sont décrites. Ces populations de neurones situés dans le sacculus ont été marquées avec des gènes rapporteurs (CD8:GFP). Ceci a montré que les récepteurs IR40a et IR93a sont exprimés ensemble avec le co-récepteur IR25a dans les chambres I et II, tandis que les neurones de la chambre III expriment IR64a avec son co-récepteur IR8a. Ces deux groupes de neurones projettent vers deux glomérules distincts du lobe antennaire : les neurones IR40a projettent vers la column et le arm, alors que les neurones IR64a projettent vers DC4 et DP1m. Un screen d'imagerie optique a démontré que ces neurones sont en effet des neurones olfactifs, et que les neurones IR64a reconnaissent des ligands acides, tandis que les neurones IR40a reconnaissent des ligands aminés. De plus, les neurones IR40a et IR64a sont séparés en sous-populations distinctes anatomiquement et physiologiquement, et d'autres facteurs permettant de définir leurs propriétés fonctionnelles sont probablement impliqués. Cette thèse identifie ainsi le sacculus comme un organe olfactif spécialisé capable de détecter des acides et amines, lesquels sont très importants pour les insectes. Toutes les données collectées durant cette thèse, combinées aux données d'autres laboratoires, montrent que le sacculus est composé de différentes populations de neurones olfactifs et thermosenseurs. Ces IRs sont très conservés parmi les insectes, suggérant que le sacculus représente révolution d'un ancien détecteur olfactif d'acides et de bases chez l'insecte. - Tous les animaux sont capables de percevoir les signaux chimiques dans leur environnement, comme les odeurs ou le goût, via différents organes. L'odorat est le sens qui permet de percevoir les odeurs, et il est implique des neurones olfactifs qui se trouvent dans le nez des mammifères ou les antennes des insectes. La capacité d'un neurone olfactif à détecter une molécule odorante dépend des types de récepteurs olfactifs qu'il exprime. Il existe deux grandes familles de récepteurs qui perçoivent les odeurs : les Récepteurs Olfactifs, ORs, et Récepteurs lonotropiques IRs, qui détectent différents types d'odeurs avec différents mécanismes. Lorsqu'un récepteur reconnaît une molécule odorante, il convertit ce signal en un signal électrique qui est ensuite transmis au centre olfactif dans le cerveau. La drosophile (Drosophila melanogaster), aussi appelée mouche du vinaigre, est utilisée comme animal modèle pour étudier l'odorat, parce que son génome entier a été séquencé et que ses gènes sont facilement manipulables. De plus, l'anatomie du système olfactif de la mouche est similaire à celui des mammifères, malgré qu'il possède moins de neurones, ce qui le rend moins complexe. Ma thèse a pour objectif d'étudier les Récepteurs lonotropiques dans un organe spécifique, appelé le sacculus, situé dans les antennes. Les neurones du sacculus exprimant des IRs envoient leurs projections au centre olfactif du cerveau, suggérant que ces neurones perçoivent les odeurs. Une technique d'imagerie optique a été utilisée sur le cerveau de mouches vivantes afin de mesurer la réponse des neurones du le sacculus à différentes odeurs. J'ai démontré que ces récepteurs détectent des acides et des amines, qui sont très importants pour les insectes. Par exemple, les acides se retrouvent dans les fruits mûrs sur lesquels les mouches vont se nourrir, s'accoupler et poser leurs oeufs, et les amines sont souvent produites par des bactéries pouvant être nuisible pour la mouche. La principale découverte de ma thèse est donc l'identification du sacculus comme un organe capable de détecter deux des principales odeurs importantes pour la mouche. Ces récepteurs sont aussi présents dans d'autres insectes où ils jouent peut-être des rôles différents. Les acides et les amines se retrouvent aussi dans les excrétions (comme la sueur ou l'urine) de beaucoup de mammifères, qui pourraient potentiellement être dangereux pour la mouche, mais qui attirent les moustiques se nourrissant de leur sang.

Adapting global conservation strategies to climate change at the European scale: the otter as a flagship species

Climate change has created the need for new strategies in conservation planning that account for the dynamics of factors threatening endangered species. Here we assessed climate change threat to the European otter, a flagship species for freshwater ecosystems, considering how current conservation areas will perform in preserving the species in a climatically changed future. We used an ensemble forecasting approach considering six modelling techniques applied to eleven subsets of otter occurrences across Europe. We performed a pseudo-independent and an internal evaluation of predictions. Future projections of species distribution were made considering the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2080 across three climate models: CCCMA-CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2 and HCCPR HAD-CM3. The current and the predicted otter distributions were used to identify priority areas for the conservation of the species, and overlapped to existing network of protected areas. Our projections show that climate change may profoundly reshuffle the otter's potential distribution in Europe, with important differences between the two scenarios we considered. Overall, the priority areas for conservation of the otter in Europe appear to be unevenly covered by the existing network of protected areas, with the current conservation efforts being insufficient in most cases. For a better conservation, the existing protected areas should be integrated within a more general conservation and management strategy incorporating climate change projections. Due to the important role that the otter plays for freshwater habitats, our study further highlights the potential sensitivity of freshwater habitats in Europe to climate change.

Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Species distributions and interactions in a changing world : from understanding to forecasting

Les écosystèmes fournissent de nombreuses ressources et services écologiques qui sont utiles à la population humaine. La biodiversité est une composante essentielle des écosystèmes et maintient de nombreux services. Afin d'assurer la permanence des services écosystémiques, des mesures doivent être prises pour conserver la biodiversité. Dans ce but, l'acquisition d'informations détaillées sur la distribution de la biodiversité dans l'espace est essentielle. Les modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) sont des modèles empiriques qui mettent en lien des observations de terrain (présences ou absences d'une espèce) avec des descripteurs de l'environnement, selon des courbes de réponses statistiques qui décrive la niche réalisée des espèces. Ces modèles fournissent des projections spatiales indiquant les lieux les plus favorables pour les espèces considérées. Le principal objectif de cette thèse est de fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution des espèces et des communautés en montagne pour le climat présent et futur en considérant non-seulement des variables abiotiques mais aussi biotiques. Les régions de montagne et l'écosystème alpin sont très sensibles aux changements globaux et en même temps assurent de nombreux services écosystémiques. Cette thèse est séparée en trois parties : (i) fournir une meilleure compréhension du rôle des interactions biotiques dans la distribution des espèces et l'assemblage des communautés en montagne (ouest des Alpes Suisses), (ii) permettre le développement d'une nouvelle approche pour modéliser la distribution spatiale de la biodiversité, (iii) fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution future des espèces ainsi que de la composition des communautés. En me focalisant sur les papillons, bourdons et plantes vasculaires, j'ai détecté des interactions biotiques importantes qui lient les espèces entre elles. J'ai également identifié la signature du filtre de l'environnement sur les communautés en haute altitude confirmant l'utilité des SDMs pour reproduire ce type de processus. A partir de ces études, j'ai contribué à l'amélioration méthodologique des SDMs dans le but de prédire les communautés en incluant les interactions biotiques et également les processus non-déterministes par une approche probabiliste. Cette approche permet de prédire non-seulement la distribution d'espèces individuelles, mais également celle de communautés dans leur entier en empilant les projections (S-SDMs). Finalement, j'ai utilisé cet outil pour prédire la distribution d'espèces et de communautés dans le passé et le futur. En particulier, j'ai modélisé la migration post-glaciaire de Trollius europaeus qui est à l'origine de la structure génétique intra-spécifique chez cette espèce et évalué les risques de perte face au changement climatique. Finalement, j'ai simulé la distribution des communautés de bourdons pour le 21e siècle afin d'évaluer les changements probables dans ce groupe important de pollinisateurs. La diversité fonctionnelle des bourdons va être altérée par la perte d'espèces spécialistes de haute altitude et ceci va influencer la pollinisation des plantes en haute altitude. - Ecosystems provide a multitude of resources and ecological services, which are useful to human. Biodiversity is an essential component of those ecosystems and guarantee many services. To assure the permanence of ecosystem services for future generation, measure should be applied to conserve biodiversity. For this purpose, the acquisition of detailed information on how biodiversity implicated in ecosystem function is distributed in space is essential. Species distribution models (SDMs) are empirical models relating field observations to environmental predictors based on statistically-derived response surfaces that fit the realized niche. These models result in spatial predictions indicating locations of the most suitable environment for the species and may potentially be applied to predict composition of communities and their functional properties. The main objective of this thesis was to provide more accurate projections of species and communities distribution under current and future climate in mountains by considering not solely abiotic but also biotic drivers of species distribution. Mountain areas and alpine ecosystems are considered as particularly sensitive to global changes and are also sources of essential ecosystem services. This thesis had three main goals: (i) a better ecological understanding of biotic interactions and how they shape the distribution of species and communities, (ii) the development of a novel approach to the spatial modeling of biodiversity, that can account for biotic interactions, and (iii) ecologically more realistic projections of future species distributions, of future composition and structure of communities. Focusing on butterfly and bumblebees in interaction with the vegetation, I detected important biotic interactions for species distribution and community composition of both plant and insects along environmental gradients. I identified the signature of environmental filtering processes at high elevation confirming the suitability of SDMs for reproducing patterns of filtering. Using those case-studies, I improved SDMs by incorporating biotic interaction and accounting for non-deterministic processes and uncertainty using a probabilistic based approach. I used improved modeling to forecast the distribution of species through the past and future climate changes. SDMs hindcasting allowed a better understanding of the spatial range dynamic of Trollius europaeus in Europe at the origin of the species intra-specific genetic diversity and identified the risk of loss of this genetic diversity caused by climate change. By simulating the future distribution of all bumblebee species in the western Swiss Alps under nine climate change scenarios for the 21st century, I found that the functional diversity of this pollinator guild will be largely affected by climate change through the loss of high elevation specialists. In turn, this will have important consequences on alpine plant pollination.

Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020

Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006) was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) (WRIGHT, 1991) and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future"), a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth") and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture"). Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere.

Climate change, anthropogenic disturbance and the northward range expansion of Lactuca serriola (Asteraceae)

The distribution range of Lactuca serriola, a species native to the summer-dry mediterranean climate, has expanded northwards during the last 250 years. This paper assesses the influence of climate on the range expansion of this species and highlights the importance of anthropogenic disturbance to its spread. Location Central and Northern Europe. Methods Data on the geographic distribution of L. serriola were assembled through a literature search as well as through floristic and herbarium surveys. Maps of the spread of L. serriola in Central and Northern Europe were prepared based on herbarium data. The spread was assessed more precisely in Germany, Austria and Great Britain by pooling herbarium and literature data. We modelled the bioclimatic niche of the species using occurrence and climatic data covering the last century to generate projections of suitable habitats under the climatic conditions of five time periods. We tested whether the observed distribution of L. serriola could be explained for each time period, assuming that the climatic niche of the species was conserved across time. Results The species has spread northwards since the beginning of the 19th century. We show that climate warming in Europe increased the number of sites suitable for the species at northern latitudes. Until the late 1970s, the distribution of the species corresponded to the climatically suitable sites available. For the last two decades, however, we could not show any significant relationship between the increase in suitable sites and the distributional range change of L. serriola. However, we highlight potential areas the species could spread to in the future (Great Britain, southern Scandinavia and the Swedish coast). It is predominantly non-climatic influences of global change that have contributed to its rapid spread. Main conclusions The observation that colonizing species are not filling their climatically suitable range might imply that, potentially, other ruderal species could expand far beyond their current range. Our work highlights the importance of historical floristic and herbarium data for understanding the expansion of a species. Such historical distributional data can provide valuable information for those planning the management of contemporary environmental problems, such as species responses to environmental change.