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The general change in the population structure and its impacts on the forest ownership structure were investigated in the thesis. The research assumed that the structural change in society has an effect on the outlook of the non-industrial private forest ownership. The changes in the structure of society were mainly restricted to population, education and occupation structures. The migration of the rural population into cities was also taken into consideration. The structural changes both in society and the non-industrial private forest ownership were examined as phenomena and their development directions were investigated since the middle of the 1970s. It could be established that the changes in the structures were mainly of the same kind in society as in forest owner structure. The clearest similarities between the changes in population and forest owner structure could be found in an increased mean age, a decrease in the 18 to 39 age bracket, those without a degree and in the farmers' shares. Furthermore it could be stated that migration into cities had taken place among both the forest owners and the general population. The main part of the research was concentrated on estimating regression models that explain the non-industrial private forest ownership change by the structural change in the population. A panel data was gathered from population statistics and previous forest ownership research information. The panel contained the years 1990 and 1999. With the assistance of the panel data it was possible to estimate regression and fixed effects' models that explained the structural changes in the non-industrial private forest ownership by evolution in the whole population. In the use of the estimated models authorities' forecasts considering the population were exploited. Only a few of the estimated models were statistically significant. This could be explained due to lack of a larger panel data. In addition the structural change of the non-industrial forest ownership was forecasted by trends.

Quantifying the effects of climate change and water abstraction on a population of barramundi (Lates calcarifer), a diadromous estuarine finfish

Many aquatic species are linked to environmental drivers such as temperature and salinity through processes such as spawning, recruitment and growth. Information is needed on how fished species may respond to altered environmental drivers under climate change so that adaptive management strategies can be developed. Barramundi (Lates calcarifer) is a highly prized species of the Indo-West Pacific, whose recruitment and growth is driven by river discharge. We developed a monthly age- and length-structured population model for barramundi. Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulations were used to explore the population's response to altered river discharges under modelled total licenced water abstraction and projected climate change, derived and downscaled from Global Climate Model A1FI. Mean values of exploitable biomass, annual catch, maximum sustainable yield and spawning stock size were significantly reduced under scenarios where river discharge was reduced; despite including uncertainty. These results suggest that the upstream use of water resources and climate change have potential to significantly reduce downstream barramundi stock sizes and harvests and may undermine the inherent resilience of estuarine-dependent fisheries. © 2012 CSIRO.

Interacting effects of vegetation, soils and management on the sensitivity of Australian savanna rangelands to climate change

There is an increasing need to understand what makes vegetation at some locations more sensitive to climate change than others. For savanna rangelands, this requires building knowledge of how forage production in different land types will respond to climate change, and identifying how location-specific land type characteristics, climate and land management control the magnitude and direction of its responses to change. Here, a simulation analysis is used to explore how forage production in 14 land types of the north-eastern Australian rangelands responds to three climate change scenarios of +3A degrees C, +17% rainfall; +2A degrees C, -7% rainfall; and +3A degrees C, -46% rainfall. Our results demonstrate that the controls on forage production responses are complex, with functional characteristics of land types interacting to determine the magnitude and direction of change. Forage production may increase by up to 60% or decrease by up to 90% in response to the extreme scenarios of change. The magnitude of these responses is dependent on whether forage production is water or nitrogen (N) limited, and how climate changes influence these limiting conditions. Forage production responds most to changes in temperature and moisture availability in land types that are water-limited, and shows the least amount of change when growth is restricted by N availability. The fertilisation effects of doubled atmospheric CO2 were found to offset declines in forage production under 2A degrees C warming and a 7% reduction in rainfall. However, rising tree densities and declining land condition are shown to reduce potential opportunities from increases in forage production and raise the sensitivity of pastures to climate-induced water stress. Knowledge of these interactions can be applied in engaging with stakeholders to identify adaptation options.

Identifying the Function of Sorghum's Drought Tolerance Stay-Green QTL

The goal of this research is to understand the function of allelic variation of genes underpinning the stay-green drought adaptation trait in sorghum in order to enhance yield in water-limited environments. Stay-green, a delayed leaf senescence phenotype in sorghum, is primarily an emergent consequence of the improved balance between the supply and demand of water. Positional and functional fine-mapping of candidate genes associated with stay-green in sorghum is the focus of an international research partnership between Australian (UQ/DAFFQ) and US (Texas A&M University) scientists. Stay-green was initially mapped to four chromosomal regions (Stg1, Stg2, Stg3, and Stg4) by a number of research groups in the US and Australia. Physiological dissection of near-isolines containing single introgressions of Stg QTL (Stg1-4) indicate that these QTL reduce water demand before flowering by constricting the size of the canopy, thereby increasing water availability during grain filling and, ultimately, grain yield. Stg and root angle QTL are also co-located and, together with crop water use data, suggest the role of roots in the stay-green phenomenon. Candidate genes have been identified in Stg1-4, including genes from the PIN family of auxin efflux carriers in Stg1 and Stg2, with 10 of 11 PIN genes in sorghum co-locating with Stg QTL. Modified gene expression in some of these PIN candidates in the stay-green compared with the senescent types has been found in preliminary RNA expression profiling studies. Further proof-of-function studies are underway, including comparative genomics, SNP analysis to assess diversity at candidate genes, reverse genetics and transformation.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

U12-type Spliceosome: Localization and Effects of Splicing Efficiency on Gene Expression

The removal of non-coding sequences, introns, is an essential part of messenger RNA processing. In most metazoan organisms, the U12-type spliceosome processes a subset of introns containing highly conserved recognition sequences. U12-type introns constitute less than 0,5% of all introns and reside preferentially in genes related to information processing functions, as opposed to genes encoding for metabolic enzymes. It has previously been shown that the excision of U12-type introns is inefficient compared to that of U2-type introns, supporting the model that these introns could provide a rate-limiting control for gene expression. The low efficiency of U12-type splicing is believed to have important consequences to gene expression by limiting the production of mature mRNAs from genes containing U12-type introns. The inefficiency of U12-type splicing has been attributed to the low abundance of the components of the U12-type spliceosome in cells, but this hypothesis has not been proven. The aim of the first part of this work was to study the effect of the abundance of the spliceosomal snRNA components on splicing. Cells with a low abundance of the U12-type spliceosome were found to inefficiently process U12-type introns encoded by a transfected construct, but the expression levels of endogenous genes were not found to be affected by the abundance of the U12-type spliceosome. However, significant levels of endogenous unspliced U12-type intron-containing pre-mRNAs were detected in cells. Together these results support the idea that U12-type splicing may limit gene expression in some situations. The inefficiency of U12-type splicing has also promoted the idea that the U12-type spliceosome may control gene expression, limiting the mRNA levels of some U12-type intron-containing genes. While the identities of the primary target genes that contain U12-type introns are relatively well known, little has previously been known about the downstream genes and pathways potentially affected by the efficiency of U12-type intron processing. Here, the effects of U12-type splicing efficiency on a whole organism were studied in a Drosophila line with a mutation in an essential U12-type spliceosome component. Genes containing U12-type introns showed variable gene-specific responses to the splicing defect, which points to variation in the susceptibility of different genes to changes in splicing efficiency. Surprisingly, microarray screening revealed that metabolic genes were enriched among downstream effects, and that the phenotype could largely be attributed to one U12-type intron-containing mitochondrial gene. Gene expression control by the U12-type spliceosome could thus have widespread effects on metabolic functions in the organism. The subcellular localization of the U12-type spliceosome components was studied as a response to a recent dispute on the localization of the U12-type spliceosome. All components studied were found to be nuclear indicating that the processing of U12-type introns occurs within the nucleus, thus clarifying a question central to the field. The results suggest that the U12-type spliceosome can limit the expression of genes that contain U12-type introns in a gene-specific manner. Through its limiting role in pre-mRNA processing, the U12-type splicing activity can affect specific genetic pathways, which in the case of Drosophila are involved in metabolic functions.

Relative stability of DNA as a generic criterion for promoter prediction: whole genome annotation of microbial genomes with varying nucleotide base composition

The rapid increase in genome sequence information has necessitated the annotation of their functional elements, particularly those occurring in the non-coding regions, in the genomic context. Promoter region is the key regulatory region, which enables the gene to be transcribed or repressed, but it is difficult to determine experimentally. Hence an in silico identification of promoters is crucial in order to guide experimental work and to pin point the key region that controls the transcription initiation of a gene. In this analysis, we demonstrate that while the promoter regions are in general less stable than the flanking regions, their average free energy varies depending on the GC composition of the flanking genomic sequence. We have therefore obtained a set of free energy threshold values, for genomic DNA with varying GC content and used them as generic criteria for predicting promoter regions in several microbial genomes, using an in-house developed tool `PromPredict'. On applying it to predict promoter regions corresponding to the 1144 and 612 experimentally validated TSSs in E. coli (50.8% GC) and B. subtilis (43.5% GC) sensitivity of 99% and 95% and precision values of 58% and 60%, respectively, were achieved. For the limited data set of 81 TSSs available for M. tuberculosis (65.6% GC) a sensitivity of 100% and precision of 49% was obtained.

Downregulation of microRNA-498 in colorectal cancers and its cellular effects

miR-498 is a non-coding RNA located intergenically in 19q13.41. Due to its predicted targeting of several genes involved in control of cellular growth, we examined the expression of miR-498 in colon cancer cell lines and a large cohort of patients with colorectal adenocarcinoma. Two colon cancer cancer cell lines (SW480 and SW48) and one normal colonic epithelial cell line (FHC) were recruited. The expression of miR-498 was tested in these cell lines by using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). Tissues from 80 patients with surgical resection of colorectum (60 adenocarcinomas and 20 non-neoplastic tissues) were tested for miR-498 expression by qRT-PCR. In addition, an exogenous miR-498 (mimic) was used to detect the miRNA׳s effects on cell proliferation and cell cycle events in SW480 using MTT calorimetric assay and flow cytometry respectively. The colon cancer cell lines showed reduced expression of miR-498 compared to a normal colonic epithelial cell line. Mimic driven over expression of miR-498 in the SW480 cell line resulted in reduced cell proliferation and increased proportions of G2-M phase cells. In tissues, miR-498 expression was too low to be detected in all colorectal adenocarcinoma compared to non-neoplastic tissues. This suggests that the down regulation of miR-498 in colorectal cancer tissues and the direct suppressive cellular effect noted in cancer cell lines implies that miR-498 has some direct or indirect role in the pathogenesis of colorectal adenocarcinomas.

Energy efficient change detection over a MAC using physical layer fusion

We propose a simple and energy efficient distributed change detection scheme for sensor networks based on Page's parametric CUSUM algorithm. The sensor observations are IID over time and across the sensors conditioned on the change variable. Each sensor runs CUSUM and transmits only when the CUSUM is above some threshold. The transmissions from the sensors are fused at the physical layer. The channel is modeled as a multiple access channel (MAC) corrupted with IID noise. The fusion center which is the global decision maker, performs another CUSUM to detect the change. We provide the analysis and simulation results for our scheme and compare the performance with an existing scheme which ensures energy efficiency via optimal power selection.

Therapeutic change in interaction

A process of change within a single case of cognitive-constructivist therapy is analyzed by means of conversation analysis (CA). The focus is on a process of change in the sequences of interaction, which consist of the therapist’s conclusion and the patient’s response to it. In the conclusions, the therapist investigates and challenges the patient’s tendency to transform her feelings of disappointment and anger into self-blame. Over the course of the therapy, the patient’s responses to these conclusions are recast: from the patient first rejecting the conclusion, to then being ambivalent, and finally to agreeing with the therapist. On the basis of this case study, we suggest that an analysis that focuses on sequences of talk that are interactionally similar offers a sensitive method to investigate the manifestation of therapeutic change. It is suggested that this line of research can complement assimilation analysis and other methods of analyzing changes in a client’s talk.

Molecular Characterization of Viruses Causing the Cassava Brown Streak Disease Epidemic in Eastern Africa

Cassava brown streak disease (CBSD) was described for the first time in Tanganyika (now Tanzania) about seven decades ago. Tanganyika (now Tanzania) about seven decades ago. It was endemic in the lowland areas of East Africa and inland parts of Malawi and caused by Cassava brown streak virus (CBSV; genus Ipomovirus; Potyviridae). However, in 1990s CBSD was observed at high altitude areas in Uganda. The causes for spread to new locations were not known.The present work was thus initiated to generate information on genetic variability, clarify the taxonomy of the virus or viruses associated with CBSD in Eastern Africa as well as to understand the evolutionary forces acting on their genes. It also sought to develop a molecular based diagnostic tool for detection of CBSD-associated virus isolates. Comparison of the CP-encoding sequences of CBSD-associated virus isolates collected from Uganda and north-western Tanzania in 2007 and the partial sequences available in Genbank revealed occurrence of two genetically distinct groups of isolates. Two isolates were selected to represent the two groups. The complete genomes of isolates MLB3 (TZ:Mlb3:07) and Kor6 (TZ:Kor6:08) obtained from North-Western (Kagera) and North-Eastern (Tanga) Tanzania, respectively, were sequenced. The genomes were 9069 and 8995 nucleotides (nt), respectively. They translated into polyproteins that were predicted to yield ten mature proteins after cleavage. Nine proteins were typical in the family Potyviridae, namely P1, P3, 6K1, CI, 6K2, VPg, NIa-Pro, NIb and CP, but the viruses did not contain HC-Pro. Interestingly, genomes of both isolates contained a Maf/HAM1-like sequence (HAM1h; 678 nucleotides, 25 kDa) recombined between the NIb and CP domains in the 3’-proximal part of the genomes. HAM1h was also identified in Euphorbia ringspot virus (EuRSV) whose sequence was in GenBank. The HAM1 gene is widely spread in both prokaryotes and eukaryotes. In yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) it is known to be a nucleoside triphosphate (NTP) pyrophosphatase. Novel information was obtained on the structural variation at the N-termini of polyproteins of viruses in the genus Ipomovirus. Cucumber vein yellowing virus (CVYV) and Squash vein yellowing virus (SqVYV) contain a duplicated P1 (P1a and P1b) but lack the HC-Pro. On the other hand, Sweet potato mild mottle virus (SPMMV), has a single but large P1 and has HC-Pro. Both virus isolates (TZ:Mlb3:07 & TZ:Kor6:08) characterized in this study contained a single P1 and lacked the HC-Pro which indicates unique evolution in the family Potyviridae. Comparison of 12 complete genomes of CBSD-associated viruses which included two genomes characterized in this study, revealed genetic identity of 69.0–70.3% (nt) and amino acid (aa) identities of 73.6–74.4% at polyprotein level. Comparison was also made among 68 complete CP sequences, which indicated 69.0-70.3 and 73.6-74.4 % identity at nt and aa levels, respectively. The genetic variation was large enough for dermacation of CBSD-associated virus isolates into two distinct species. The name CBSV was retained for isolates that were related to CBSV isolates available in database whereas the new virus described for the first time in this study was named Ugandan cassava brown streak virus (UCBSV) by the International Committee on Virus Taxonomy (ICTV). The isolates TZ:Mlb3:07 and TZ:Kor6:08 belong to UCBSV and CBSV, respectively. The isolates of CBSV and UCBSV were 79.3-95.5% and 86.3-99.3 % identitical at nt level, respectively, suggesting more variation amongst CBSV isolates. The main sources of variation in plant viruses are mutations and recombination. Signals for recombination events were detected in 50% of isolates of each virus. Recombination events were detected in coding and non-coding (3’-UTR) sequences except in the 5’UTR and P3. There was no evidence for recombination between isolates of CBSV and UCBSV. The non-synonomous (dN) to synonomous (dS) nucleotide substitution ratio (ω) for the HAM1h and CP domains of both viruses were ≤ 0.184 suggesting that most sites of these proteins were evolving under strong purifying selection. However, there were individual amino acid sites that were submitted to adaptive evolution. For instance, adaptive evolution was detected in the HAM1h of UCBSV (n=15) where 12 aa sites were under positive selection (P< 0.05) but not in CBSV (n=12). The CP of CBSV (n=23) contained 12 aa sites (p<0.01) while only 5 aa sites in the CP gene of UCBSV were predicted to be submitted to positive selection pressure (p<0.01). The advantages offered by the aa sites under positive selection could not be established but occurrence of such sites in the terminal ends of UCBSV-HAMIh, for example, was interpreted as a requirement for proteolysis during polyprotein processing. Two different primer pairs that simultaneously detect UCBSV and CBSV isolates were developed in this study. They were used successfully to study distribution of CBSV, UCBSV and their mixed infections in Tanzania and Uganda. It was established that the two viruses co-infect cassava and that incidences of co-infection could be as high as 50% around Lake Victoria on the Tanzanian side. Furthermore, it was revealed for the first time that both UCBSV and CBSV were widely distributed in Eastern Africa. The primer pair was also used to confirm infection in a close relative of cassava, Manihot glaziovii (Müller Arg.) with CBSV. DNA barcoding of M. glaziovii was done by sequencing the matK gene. Two out of seven M. glaziovii from the coastal areas of Korogwe and Kibaha in north eastern Tanzania were shown to be infected by CBSV but not UCBSV isolates. Detection in M. glaziovii has an implication in control and management of CBSD as it is likely to serve as virus reservoir. This study has contributed to the understanding of evolution of CBSV and UCBSV, which cause CBSD epidemic in Eastern Africa. The detection tools developed in this work will be useful in plant breeding, verification of the phytosanitary status of materials in regional and international movement of germplasm, and in all diagnostic activities related to management of CBSD. Whereas there are still many issues to be resolved such as the function and biological significance of HAM1h and its origin, this work has laid a foundation upon which the studies on these aspects can be based.

Transposable element-medicated evolution of sex: A population genetic model

For a population made up of individuals capable of sexual as well as asexual modes of reproduction, conditions for the spread of a transposable element are explored using a one-locus, two-haplotype model. The analysis is then extended to include the possibility that the transposable element can modulate the probability of sexual reproduction, thus casting Hickey’s (1982,Genetics 101: 519–531) suggestion in a population genetics framework. The model explicitly includes the cost of sexual reproduction, fitness disadvantage to the transposable element, probability of transposition, and the predisposition for sexual reproduction in the presence and absence of the transposable element. The model predicts several kinds of outcome, including initial frequency dependence and stable polymorphism. More importantly, it is seen that for a wide range of parameter values, the transposable element can go to fixation. Therefore it is able to convert the population from a predominantly asexual to a predominantly sexual mode of reproduction. Viewed in conjunction with recent results implicating short stretches of apparently non-coding DNA in sex determination (McCoubreyet al. 1988,Science 242: 1146–1151), the model hints at the important role this mechanism could have played in the evolution of sexuality.

Cloning and sequence of a cDNA encoding a novel hybrid prolme-rich protein associated with cytokinin-induced haustoria formation in Cuscuta reflexa

A complete cDNA encoding a novel hybrid Pro-rich protein (HyPRP) was identified by differentially screening 3x10(4) recombinant plaques of a Cuscuta reflexa cytokinin-induced haustorial cDNA library constructed in lambda gt10. The nucleotide (nt) sequence consists of: (i) a 424-bp 5'-non coding region having five start codons (ATGs) and three upstream open reading frames (uORFs); (ii) an ORF of 987 bp with coding potential for a 329-amino-acid (aa) protein of M(r), 35203 with a hydrophobic N-terminal region including a stretch of nine consecutive Phe followed by a Pro-rich sequence and a Cys-rich hydrophobic C terminus; and (iii) a 178-bp 3'-UTR (untranslated region). Comparison of the predicted aa sequence with the NBRF and SWISSPROT databases and with a recent report of an embryo-specific protein of maize [Jose-Estanyol et al., Plant Cell 4 (1992) 413-423] showed it to be similar to the class of HyPRPs encoded by genes preferentially expressed in young tomato fruits, maize embryos and in vitro-cultured carrot embryos. Northern analysis revealed an approx. 1.8-kb mRNA of this gene expressed in the subapical region of the C. reflexa vine which exhibited maximum sensitivity to cytokinin in haustorial induction.