A Comparative Chronology of the History of Eastern Europe and the Climate

Two main areas were examined in this project: * The detailed climatic history of the second part of the Holocene (approximately the last 5500 calendar years) for the Zapadnodvinskaya lowland, making it possible to reconstruct general climatic changes in eastern Europe (taking other palynological, dendrochronological, historical and instrumental data into account). * The most important historical events for the period of the 9th-17th centuries that had an impact on Russian history. The comparative chronology of the main climatic changes and events of Russian social history showed that as local climatic conditions became worse (i.e. falling average annual temperature or precipitation rate) the density of significant events in society rose. This suggests that climatic deterioration is both a stimulus and an outstanding factor in social development.

Cascading climate effects and related ecological consequences during past centuries

The interface between climate and ecosystem structure and function is incompletely understood, partly because few ecological records start before the recent warming phase. Here, we analyse an exceptional 100-yr long record of the great tit (Parus major) population in Switzerland in relation to climate and habitat phenology. Using structural equation analysis, we demonstrate an uninterrupted cascade of significant influences of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (North-Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, and North-sea – Caspian Pattern, NCP) on habitat and breeding phenology, and further on fitness-relevant life history traits within great tit populations. We then apply the relationships of this analysis to reconstruct the circulation-driven component of fluctuations in great tit breeding phenology and productivity on the basis of new seasonal NAO and NCP indices back to 1500 AD. According to the structural equation model, the multi-decadal oscillation of the atmospheric circulation likely led to substantial variation in habitat phenology, productivity and consequently, tit population fluctuations with minima during the "Maunder Minimum" (∼ 1650–1720) and the Little Ice Age Type Event I (1810–1850). The warming since 1975 was not only related with a quick shift towards earlier breeding, but also with the highest productivity since 1500, and thus, the impact of the NAO and NCP has contributed to an unprecedented increase of the population. A verification of the structural equation model against two independent data series (1970–2000 and 1750–1900) corroborates that the retrospective model reliably depicts the major long-term NAO/NCP impact on ecosystem parameters. The results suggest a complex cascade of climate effects beginning at a global scale and ending at the level of individual life histories. This sheds light on how large-scale climate conditions substantially affect major life history parameters within a population, and thus influence key ecosystem parameters at the scale of centuries.

The impact of different glacial boundary conditions on atmospheric dynamics and precipitation in the North Atlantic region

Using a highly resolved atmospheric general circulation model, the impact of different glacial boundary conditions on precipitation and atmospheric dynamics in the North Atlantic region is investigated. Six 30-yr time slice experiments of the Last Glacial Maximum at 21 thousand years before the present (ka BP) and of a less pronounced glacial state – the Middle Weichselian (65 ka BP) – are compared to analyse the sensitivity to changes in the ice sheet distribution, in the radiative forcing and in the prescribed time-varying sea surface temperature and sea ice, which are taken from a lower-resolved, but fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The strongest differences are found for simulations with different heights of the Laurentide ice sheet. A high surface elevation of the Laurentide ice sheet leads to a southward displacement of the jet stream and the storm track in the North Atlantic region. These changes in the atmospheric dynamics generate a band of increased precipitation in the mid-latitudes across the Atlantic to southern Europe in winter, while the precipitation pattern in summer is only marginally affected. The impact of the radiative forcing differences between the two glacial periods and of the prescribed time-varying sea surface temperatures and sea ice are of second order importance compared to the one of the Laurentide ice sheet. They affect the atmospheric dynamics and precipitation in a similar but less pronounced manner compared with the topographic changes.

Seasonal variation in orthopedic health services utilization in Switzerland: the impact of winter sport tourism

BACKGROUND: Climate- or holiday-related seasonality in hospital admission rates is well known for many diseases. However, little research has addressed the impact of tourism on seasonality in admission rates. We therefore investigated the influence of tourism on emergency admission rates in Switzerland, where winter and summer leisure sport activities in large mountain regions can generate orthopedic injuries. METHODS: Using small area analysis, orthopedic hospital service areas (HSAo) were evaluated for seasonality in emergency admission rates. Winter sport areas were defined using guest bed accommodation rate patterns of guest houses and hotels located above 1000 meters altitude that show clear winter and summer peak seasons. Emergency admissions (years 2000-2002, n = 135'460) of local and nonlocal HSAo residents were evaluated. HSAo were grouped according to their area type (regular or winter sport area) and monthly analyses of admission rates were performed. RESULTS: Of HSAo within the defined winter sport areas 70.8% show a seasonal, summer-winter peak hospital admission rate pattern and only 1 HSAo outside the defined winter sport areas shows such a pattern. Seasonal hospital admission rates in HSAo in winter sport areas can be up to 4 times higher in winter than the intermediate seasons, and they are almost entirely due to admissions of nonlocal residents. These nonlocal residents are in general -and especially in winter- younger than local residents, and nonlocal residents have a shorter length of stay in winter sport than in regular areas. The overall geographic distribution of nonlocal residents admitted for emergencies shows highest rates during the winter as well as the summer in the winter sport areas. CONCLUSION: Small area analysis using orthopedic hospital service areas is a reliable method for the evaluation of seasonality in hospital admission rates. In Switzerland, HSAo defined as winter sport areas show a clear seasonal fluctuation in admission rates of only nonlocal residents, whereas HSAo defined as regular, non-winter sport areas do not show such seasonality. We conclude that leisure sport, and especially ski/snowboard tourism demands great flexibility in hospital beds, staff and resource planning in these areas.

The effects of a changing climate on root respiration of woody plants in sugar maple forests and northern peatlands

Global climate change might significantly impact future ecosystems. The purpose of this thesis was to investigate potential changes in woody plant fine root respiration in response to a changing climate. In a sugar maple dominated northern hardwood forest, the soil was experimentally warmed (+4 °C) to determine if the tree roots could metabolically acclimate to warmer soil conditions. After one and a half years of soil warming, there was an indication of slight acclimation in the fine roots of sugar maple, helping the ecosystem avoid excessive C loss to the atmosphere. In a poor fen northern peatland in northern Michigan, the impacts of water level changes on woody plant fine root respiration were investigated. In areas of increased and also decreased water levels, there were increases in the CO2 efflux from ecosystem fine root respiration. These studies show the importance of investigating further the impacts climate change may have on C balance in northern ecosystems.

Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

Using water balance models to approximate the effects of climate change on spring catchment discharge : Mt. Hanang, Tanzania

This project addresses the potential impacts of changing climate on dry-season water storage and discharge from a small, mountain catchment in Tanzania. Villagers and water managers around the catchment have experienced worsening water scarcity and attribute it to increasing population and demand, but very little has been done to understand the physical characteristics and hydrological behavior of the spring catchment. The physical nature of the aquifer was characterized and water balance models were calibrated to discharge observations so as to be able to explore relative changes in aquifer storage resulting from climate changes. To characterize the shallow aquifer supplying water to the Jandu spring, water quality and geochemistry data were analyzed, discharge recession analysis was performed, and two water balance models were developed and tested. Jandu geochemistry suggests a shallow, meteorically-recharged aquifer system with short circulation times. Baseflow recession analysis showed that the catchment behavior could be represented by a linear storage model with an average recession constant of 0.151/month from 2004-2010. Two modified Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance (TMWB) models were calibrated using historic rainfall and discharge data and shown to reproduce dry-season flows with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.86 and 0.91. The modified TMWB models were then used to examine the impacts of nineteen, perturbed climate scenarios to test the potential impacts of regional climate change on catchment storage during the dry season. Forcing the models with realistic scenarios for average monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and seasonal rainfall distribution demonstrated that even small climate changes might adversely impact aquifer storage conditions at the onset of the dry season. The scale of the change was dependent on the direction (increasing vs. decreasing) and magnitude of climate change (temperature and precipitation). This study demonstrates that small, mountain aquifer characterization is possible using simple water quality parameters, recession analysis can be integrated into modeling aquifer storage parameters, and water balance models can accurately reproduce dry-season discharges and might be useful tools to assess climate change impacts. However, uncertainty in current climate projections and lack of data for testing the predictive capabilities of the model beyond the present data set, make the forecasts of changes in discharge also uncertain. The hydrologic tools used herein offer promise for future research in understanding small, shallow, mountainous aquifers and could potentially be developed and used by water resource professionals to assess climatic influences on local hydrologic systems.

Climate-induced interannual variability of marine primary and export production in three global coupled climate carbon cycle models

Fully coupled climate carbon cycle models are sophisticated tools that are used to predict future climate change and its impact on the land and ocean carbon cycles. These models should be able to adequately represent natural variability, requiring model validation by observations. The present study focuses on the ocean carbon cycle component, in particular the spatial and temporal variability in net primary productivity (PP) and export production (EP) of particulate organic carbon (POC). Results from three coupled climate carbon cycle models (IPSL, MPIM, NCAR) are compared with observation-based estimates derived from satellite measurements of ocean colour and results from inverse modelling (data assimilation). Satellite observations of ocean colour have shown that temporal variability of PP on the global scale is largely dominated by the permanently stratified, low-latitude ocean (Behrenfeld et al., 2006) with stronger stratification (higher sea surface temperature; SST) being associated with negative PP anomalies. Results from all three coupled models confirm the role of the low-latitude, permanently stratified ocean for anomalies in globally integrated PP, but only one model (IPSL) also reproduces the inverse relationship between stratification (SST) and PP. An adequate representation of iron and macronutrient co-limitation of phytoplankton growth in the tropical ocean has shown to be the crucial mechanism determining the capability of the models to reproduce observed interactions between climate and PP.

Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100 by 0.2 to 0.3 K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10 years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.

Climate and vegetation changes during the Lateglacial and early–middle Holocene at Lake Ledro (southern Alps, Italy)

Adding to the on-going debate regarding vegetation recolonisation (more particularly the timing) in Europe and climate change since the Lateglacial, this study investigates a long sediment core (LL081) from Lake Ledro (652ma.s.l., southern Alps, Italy). Environmental changes were reconstructed using multiproxy analysis (pollen-based vegetation and climate reconstruction, lake levels, magnetic susceptibility and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) measurements) recorded climate and land-use changes during the Lateglacial and early-middle Holocene. The well-dated and high-resolution pollen record of Lake Ledro is compared with vegetation records from the southern and northern Alps to trace the history of tree species distribution. An altitudedependent progressive time delay of the first continuous occurrence of Abies (fir) and of the Larix (larch) development has been observed since the Lateglacial in the southern Alps. This pattern suggests that the mid-altitude Lake Ledro area was not a refuge and that trees originated from lowlands or hilly areas (e.g. Euganean Hills) in northern Italy. Preboreal oscillations (ca. 11 000 cal BP), Boreal oscillations (ca. 10 200, 9300 cal BP) and the 8.2 kyr cold event suggest a centennial-scale climate forcing in the studied area. Picea (spruce) expansion occurred preferentially around 10 200 and 8200 cal BP in the south-eastern Alps, and therefore reflects the long-lasting cumulative effects of successive boreal and the 8.2 kyr cold event. The extension of Abies is contemporaneous with the 8.2 kyr event, but its development in the southern Alps benefits from the wettest interval 8200-7300 cal BP evidenced in high lake levels, flood activity and pollen-based climate reconstructions. Since ca. 7500 cal BP, a weak signal of pollen-based anthropogenic activities suggest weak human impact. The period between ca. 5700 and ca. 4100 cal BP is considered as a transition period to colder and wetter conditions (particularly during summers) that favoured a dense beech (Fagus) forest development which in return caused a distinctive yew (Taxus) decline.We conclude that climate was the dominant factor controlling vegetation changes and erosion processes during the early and middle Holocene (up to ca. 4100 cal BP).

Climate change and infectious diseases of wildlife: Altered interactions between pathogens, vectors and hosts

Infectious diseases result from the interactions of host, pathogens, and, in the case of vector-borne diseases, also vectors. The interactions involve physiological and ecological mechanisms and they have evolved under a given set of environmental conditions. Environmental change, therefore, will alter host-pathogen-vector interactions and, consequently, the distribution, intensity, and dynamics of infectious diseases. Here, we review how climate change may impact infectious diseases of aquatic and terrestrial wildlife. Climate change can have direct impacts on distribution, life cycle, and physiological status of hosts, pathogens and vectors. While a change in either host, pathogen or vector does not necessarily translate into an alteration of the disease, it is the impact of climate change on the interactions between the disease components which is particularly critical for altered disease risks. Finally, climate factors can modulate disease through modifying the ecological networks host-pathogen-vector systems are belonging to, and climate change can combine with other environmental stressors to induce cumulative effects on infectious diseases. Overall, the influence of climate change on infectious diseases involves different mechanisms, it can be modulated by phenotypic acclimation and/or genotypic adaptation, it depends on the ecological context of the host-pathogen-vector interactions, and it can be modulated by impacts of other stressors. As a consequence of this complexity, non-linear responses of disease systems under climate change are to be expected. To improve predictions on climate change impacts on infectious disease, we suggest that more emphasis should be given to the integration of biomedical and ecological research for studying both the physiological and ecological mechanisms which mediate climate change impacts on disease, and to the development of harmonized methods and approaches to obtain more comparable results, as this would support the discrimination of case-specific versus general mechanisms

Assessing the Influence of Brain-based Instructional Methods and Its Impact on Systemic Change for Learning Communities

Background: As scholars who prepare future school leaders to be innovative instructional leaders for their learning communities, we are on the verge of a curriculum design revolution. The application of brain research findings promotes educational reform efforts to systemically change the way in which children experience school. However, most educators, school leaders, board members, and policy makers are ill prepared to reconsider the implications for assessment, pedagogy, school climate, daily schedules, and use of technology. This qualitative study asked future school leaders to reconsider how school leadership preparedness programs prepared them to become instructional leaders for the 21st century. The findings from this study will enhance the field of school leadership, challenging the current emphasis placed on standardized testing, traditional school calendars, assessments, monocultural instructional methods, and meeting the needs of diverse learning communities. [See PDF for complete abstract]

Impact of delay in reducing carbon dioxide emissions

Recent downward revisions in the climate response to rising CO2 levels, and opportunities for reducing non-CO2 climate warming, have both been cited as evidence that the case for reducing CO2 emissions is less urgent than previously thought. Evaluating the impact of delay is complicated by the fact that CO2 emissions accumulate over time, so what happens after they peak is as relevant for long-term warming as the size and timing of the peak itself. Previous discussions have focused on how the rate of reduction required to meet any given temperature target rises asymptotically the later the emissions peak. Here we focus on a complementary question: how fast is peak CO2-induced warming increasing while mitigation is delayed, assuming no increase in rates of reduction after the emissions peak? We show that this peak-committed warming is increasing at the same rate as cumulative CO2 emissions, about 2% per year, much faster than observed warming, independent of the climate response.

Impact of an abrupt cooling event on interglacial methane emissions in northern peatlands

Rapid changes in atmospheric methane (CH4), temperature and precipitation are documented by Greenland ice core data both for glacial times (the so called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events) as well as for a cooling event in the early Holocene (the 8.2 kyr event). The onsets of D-O warm events are paralleled by abrupt increases in CH4 by up to 250 ppb in a few decades. Vice versa, the 8.2 kyr event is accompanied by an intermittent decrease in CH4 of about 80 ppb over 150 yr. The abrupt CH4 changes are thought to mainly originate from source emission variations in tropical and boreal wet ecosystems, but complex process oriented bottom-up model estimates of the changes in these ecosystems during rapid climate changes are still missing. Here we present simulations of CH4 emissions from northern peatlands with the LPJ-Bern dynamic global vegetation model. The model represents CH4 production and oxidation in soils and transport by ebullition, through plant aerenchyma, and by diffusion. Parameters are tuned to represent site emission data as well as inversion-based estimates of northern wetland emissions. The model is forced with climate input data from freshwater hosing experiments using the NCAR CSM1.4 climate model to simulate an abrupt cooling event. A concentration reduction of ~10 ppb is simulated per degree K change of mean northern hemispheric surface temperature in peatlands. Peatland emissions are equally sensitive to both changes in temperature and in precipitation. If simulated changes are taken as an analogy to the 8.2 kyr event, boreal peatland emissions alone could only explain 23 of the 80 ppb decline in atmospheric methane concentration. This points to a significant contribution to source changes from low latitude and tropical wetlands to this event.

Holocene climate, fire and vegetation dynamics at the treeline in the Northwestern Swiss Alps

Treelines are expected to rise to higher elevations with climate warming; the rate and extent however are still largely unknown. Here we present the first multi-proxy palaeoecological study from the treeline in the Northwestern Swiss Alps that covers the entire Holocene. We reconstructed climate, fire and vegetation dynamics at Iffigsee, an alpine lake at 2,065 m a.s.l., by using seismic sedimentary surveys, loss on ignition, visible spectrum reflectance spectroscopy, pollen, spore, macrofossil and charcoal analyses. Afforestation with Larix decidua and tree Betula (probably B. pendula) started at ~9,800 cal. b.p., more than 1,000 years later than at similar elevations in the Central and Southern Alps, indicating cooler temperatures and/or a high seasonality. Highest biomass production and forest position of ~2,100–2,300 m a.s.l. are inferred during the Holocene Thermal Maximum from 7,000 to 5,000 cal. b.p. With the onset of pastoralism and transhumance at 6,800–6,500 cal. b.p., human impact became an important factor in the vegetation dynamics at Iffigsee. This early evidence of pastoralism is documented by the presence of grazing indicators (pollen, spores), as well as a wealth of archaeological finds at the nearby mountain pass of Schnidejoch. Human and fire impact during the Neolithic and Bronze Ages led to the establishment of pastures and facilitated the expansion of Picea abies and Alnus viridis. We expect that in mountain areas with land abandonment, the treeline will react quickly to future climate warming by shifting to higher elevations, causing drastic changes in species distribution and composition as well as severe biodiversity losses.