Machine Learning in ambito assicurativo Un caso di studio

Il Machine Learning si sta rivelando una tecnologia dalle incredibili potenzialità nei settori più disparati. Le diverse tecniche e gli algoritmi che vi fanno capo abilitano analisi dei dati molto più efficaci rispetto al passato. Anche l’industria assicurativa sta sperimentando l’adozione di soluzioni di Machine Learning e diverse sono le direzioni di innovamento che ne stanno conseguendo, dall’efficientamento dei processi interni all’offerta di prodotti rispondenti in maniera adattiva alle esigenze del cliente. Questo lavoro di tesi è stato realizzato durante un tirocinio presso Unisalute S.p.A., la prima assicurazione in ambito sanitario in Italia. La criticità intercettata è stata la sovrastima del capitale da destinare a riserva a fronte dell’impegno nei confronti dell’assicurato: questo capitale immobilizzato va a sottrarre risorse ad investimenti più proficui nel medio e lungo termine, per cui è di valore stimarlo appropriatamente. All'interno del settore IT di Unisalute, ho lavorato alla progettazione e implementazione di un modello di Machine Learning che riesca a prevedere se un sinistro appena preso in gestione sarà liquidato o meno. Dotare gli uffici impegnati nella determinazione del riservato di questa stima aggiuntiva basata sui dati, sarebbe di notevole supporto. La progettazione del modello di Machine Learning si è articolata in una Data Pipeline contenente le metodologie più efficienti con riferimento al preprocessamento e alla modellazione dei dati. L’implementazione ha visto Python come linguaggio di programmazione; il dataset, ottenuto a seguito di estrazioni e integrazioni a partire da diversi database Oracle, presenta una cardinalità di oltre 4 milioni di istanze caratterizzate da 32 variabili. A valle del tuning degli iperparamentri e dei vari addestramenti, si è raggiunta un’accuratezza dell’86% che, nel dominio di specie, è ritenuta più che soddisfacente e sono emersi contributi non noti alla liquidabilità dei sinistri.

Work environments implementation for genomic reporting and analytics

A global italian pharmaceutical company has to provide two work environments that favor different needs. The environments will allow to develop solutions in a controlled, secure and at the same time in an independent manner on a state-of-the-art enterprise cloud platform. The need of developing two different environments is dictated by the needs of the working units. Indeed, the first environment is designed to facilitate the creation of application related to genomics, therefore, designed more for data-scientists. This environment is capable of consuming, producing, retrieving and incorporating data, furthermore, will support the most used programming languages for genomic applications (e.g., Python, R). The proposal was to obtain a pool of ready-togo Virtual Machines with different architectures to provide best performance based on the job that needs to be carried out. The second environment has more of a traditional trait, to obtain, via ETL (Extract-Transform-Load) process, a global datamodel, resembling a classical relational structure. It will provide major BI operations (e.g., analytics, performance measure, reports, etc.) that can be leveraged both for application analysis or for internal usage. Since, both architectures will maintain large amounts of data regarding not only pharmaceutical informations but also internal company informations, it would be possible to digest the data by reporting/ analytics tools and also apply data-mining, machine learning technologies to exploit intrinsic informations. The thesis work will introduce, proposals, implementations, descriptions of used technologies/platforms and future works of the above discussed environments.

Formação combinada: reutilizando learning objects

O uso crescente da Internet (World Wide Web), e das suas potencialidades tecnológicas têm contribuído para uma proliferação de ambientes de ensino/aprendizagem, baseados em Tecnologia. A comunidade científica reúne consenso quanto às vantagens da reutilização de conteúdos de aprendizagem e à adopção de standards com vista à interoperabilidade entre conteúdos/objectos partilháveis e plataformas. Este artigo tem como objectivo reflectir sobre o desenvolvimento de uma metodologia de ensino combinada de aprendizagem com recurso a Learning Objects, no âmbito do trabalho de doutoramento.

A Game of learning: a b-activity

Th The purpose of this article is to share the implementation of workgroup activities: a game of learning supported by web technology; Effective educational strategies that encourage a dynamic combination of being flexible, individualized and personalized must be the aim of every school; The blended-learning plays an important role; In this article we describe an online collaborative game which uses an inside and outside collaboration in order to promote the motivation and effective learning; Pedagogical strategies, that use technologies appropriately, in higher education, can promote active learning, centered on students and thus valuing their personal experiences and participation;

Intelligent decision making in electricity markets: simulated annealing Q-Learning

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simulator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS, a system that provides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behavior. This paper presents a method that aims at enhancing ALBidS competence in endowing market players with adequate strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses a reinforcement learning algorithm to learn from experience how to choose the best from a set of possible actions. These actions are defined accordingly to the most probable points of bidding success. With the purpose of accelerating the convergence process, a simulated annealing based algorithm is included.

Adaptive learning in multiagent systems: a forecasting methodology based on error analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

Cost dependent strategy for electricity markets bidding based on adaptive reinforcement learning

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simulator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM provides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behavior. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players with strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses a reinforcement learning algorithm to learn from experience how to choose the best from a set of possible bids. These bids are defined accordingly to the cost function that each producer presents.

Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: a framework for electricity markets simulation

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. A critical issue regarding these specific characteristics concerns the constant changes they are subject to. This is a result of the electricity markets’ restructuring, which was performed so that the competitiveness could be increased, but it also had exponential implications in the increase of the complexity and unpredictability in those markets scope. The constant growth in markets unpredictability resulted in an amplified need for market intervenient entities in foreseeing market behaviour. The need for understanding the market mechanisms and how the involved players’ interaction affects the outcomes of the markets, contributed to the growth of usage of simulation tools. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyze dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. This dissertation presents ALBidS – Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System, a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. This system is integrated with the MASCEM electricity market simulator, so that its advantage in supporting a market player can be tested using cases based on real markets’ data. ALBidS considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches, to provide alternative suggestions of which are the best actions for the supported player to perform. The approach chosen as the players’ actual action is selected by the employment of reinforcement learning algorithms, which for each different situation, simulation circumstances and context, decides which proposed action is the one with higher possibility of achieving the most success. Some of the considered approaches are supported by a mechanism that creates profiles of competitor players. These profiles are built accordingly to their observed past actions and reactions when faced with specific situations, such as success and failure. The system’s context awareness and simulation circumstances analysis, both in terms of results performance and execution time adaptation, are complementary mechanisms, which endow ALBidS with further adaptation and learning capabilities.

Terminologia e b-learning; o regresso de Humpty Dumpry

Este estudo tem por objectivo reflectir sobre o papel da Terminologia na organização conceptual e linguística das áreas de especialidade. Defender-se-á que, pela sua natureza hermenêutica, organizadora, harmonizadora e heurística, esta área científica poderá reduzir a complexidade e a fragmentação lexical e conceptual que impera no domínio dos modelos de educação para o Ensino Superior, permitindo ajudar a clarificar a filiação ideológica das várias visões de ensino, levando deste modo a que o debate seja epistemologicamente transparente. Será focado o caso particular do Blended-Learning, enquanto exemplo de um sub-domínio ainda instável, do ponto de vista da sua organização ontológica e da sua materialização linguística e terminológica.

A B-learning strategy for Therapeutics at the Bachelor Level

Background Information:The incorporation of distance learning activities by institutions of higher education is considered an important contribution to create new opportunities for teaching at both, initial and continuing training. In Medicine and Nursing, several papers illustrate the adaptation of technological components and teaching methods are prolific, however, when we look at the Pharmaceutical Education area, the examples are scarce. In that sense this project demonstrates the implementation and assessment of a B-Learning Strategy for Therapeutics using a “case based learning” approach. Setting: Academic Pharmacy Methods:This is an exploratory study involving 2nd year students of the Pharmacy Degree at the School of Allied Health Sciences of Oporto. The study population consists of 61 students, divided in groups of 3-4 elements. The b-learning model was implemented during a time period of 8 weeks. Results:A B-learning environment and digital learning objects were successfully created and implemented. Collaboration and assessment techniques were carefully developed to ensure the active participation and fair assessment of all students. Moodle records show a consistent activity of students during the assignments. E-portfolios were also developed using Wikispaces, which promoted reflective writing and clinical reasoning. Conclusions:Our exploratory study suggests that the “case based learning” method can be successfully combined with the technological components to create and maintain a feasible online learning environment for the teaching of therapeutics.

Educational in a global environment: non-formal examples of learning practices at the international office

23rd SPACE AGM and Conference from 9 to 12 May 2012 Conference theme: The Role of Professional Higher Education: Responsibility and Reflection Venue: Mikkeli University of Applied Sciences, Mikkeli, Finland

Ensemble: an e-learning framework

E-Learning frameworks are conceptual tools to organize networks of elearning services. Most frameworks cover areas that go beyond the scope of e-learning, from course to financial management, and neglects the typical activities in everyday life of teachers and students at schools such as the creation, delivery, resolution and evaluation of assignments. This paper presents the Ensemble framework - an e-learning framework exclusively focused on the teaching-learning process through the coordination of pedagogical services. The framework presents an abstract data, integration and evaluation model based on content and communications specifications. These specifications must base the implementation of networks in specialized domains with complex evaluations. In this paper we specialize the framework for two domains with complex evaluation: computer programming and computer-aided design (CAD). For each domain we highlight two Ensemble hotspots: data and evaluations procedures. In the former we formally describe the exercise and present possible extensions. In the latter, we describe the automatic evaluation procedures.

Orchestration of e-learning services for automatic evaluation of programming exercises

Managing programming exercises require several heterogeneous systems such as evaluation engines, learning objects repositories and exercise resolution environments. The coordination of networks of such disparate systems is rather complex. These tools would be too specific to incorporate in an e-Learning platform. Even if they could be provided as pluggable components, the burden of maintaining them would be prohibitive to institutions with few courses in those domains. This work presents a standard based approach for the coordination of a network of e-Learning systems participating on the automatic evaluation of programming exercises. The proposed approach uses a pivot component to orchestrate the interaction among all the systems using communication standards. This approach was validated through its effective use on classroom and we present some preliminary results.

Lições vídeo com o Camtasia studio

Este guião de apoio à formação tem como objectivo apoiar docentes na (1)produção de lições em vídeo para apoio às aulas e (2) utilização de funcionalidades do Camtasia studio.

Virtual laboratory for educational environments

In this paper a new simulation environment for a virtual laboratory to educational proposes is presented. The Logisim platform was adopted as the base digital simulation tool, since it has a modular implementation in Java. All the hardware devices used in the laboratory course was designed as components accessible by the simulation tool, and integrated as a library. Moreover, this new library allows the user to access an external interface. This work was motivated by the needed to achieve better learning times on co-design projects, based on hardware and software implementations, and to reduce the laboratory time, decreasing the operational costs of engineer teaching. Furthermore, the use of virtual laboratories in educational environments allows the students to perform functional tests, before they went to a real laboratory. Moreover, these functional tests allow to speed-up the learning when a problem based approach methodology is considered. © 2014 IEEE.