Consumer behavior: Online grocery shopping in Portugal

Living in the digital era, activities that have for centuries acted one way, have now changed and entered the online world, and online grocery shopping is one of them. It is a worldwide phenomenon and is already a significant part of people’s lifestyle in several countries however, in Portugal, it is still in expansion and improvement. Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, this study allowed to estimate how the perceived risk and shopping orientation counterbalances the convenience offered to consumers. Furthermore, it validated how usability and access to focused promotions can help speed up this adaptation in Portugal

Basel III new capital requirements, impacts and bank behavior

For some years, researchers could not find a clear effect of capital adequacy on the risk profile of banks, as shareholders could increase the riskiness of the assets (qualitative effect), crowding-out the effect of reduced leverage (volume effect). Some shareholders might have the will to increase the riskiness of the assets, but they may lack the power to do so. Considering only ”powerful” shareholders, definitive conclusions were drawn but with constant ownership profile. In this paper I investigate whether there is a significant change in the type of shareholders in response to regulatory capital shocks and, if so, will the banking system be in the hands of more “desired” shareholders. I find that ownership profile responds to a regulatory shock, changing the risk appetite of the ruling power at the bank. I find more banks and the government in the ownership of undercapitalised banks and much less institutional shareholders and free float. I claim that these new shareholders may not the desired ones, given the objective of the regulatory change, as they are associated with a preference for more leverage. One possible explanation for this crowding-out effect is that regulators are trying to contain idiosyncratic risk (more linked to the riskiness of the assets) with a rule that contains systematic risk (capital adequacy). This has a distorting effect on ownership. Another insight can be drawn from the tests: supervisors should be aware of significant ownership movements that cause the crowding-out.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Size of gastroesophageal varices: its behavior after the surgical treatment of portal hypertension

The size of gastroesophageal varices is one of the most important factors leading to hemorrhage related to portal hypertension. An endoscopic evaluation of the size of gastroesophageal varices before and after different operations for portal hypertension was performed in 73 patients with schistosomiasis, as part of a randomized trial: proximal splenorenal shunt (PSS n=24), distal splenorenal shunt (DSS n=24), and esophagogastric devascularization with splenectomy (EGDS n=25). The endoscopic evaluation was performed before and up to 10 years after the operations. Variceal size was graded according to Palmer's classification: grade 1 -- up to 3 mm, grade 2 -- from 3 to 6 mm, grade 3 -- greater than 6 mm, and were analyzed in four anatomical locations: inferior, middle or superior third of the esophagus, and proximal stomach. The total number of points in the pre-operative grading minus the number of points in the post-operative grading gave a differential grading, allowing statistical comparison among the surgical groups. Good results, in terms of disappearance or decrease of variceal size, were observed more frequently after PSS than after DSS or EGDS - 95.8%, 83.3%, and 72%, respectively. When differential grading was analyzed, a statistically significant difference was observed between PSS and EGDS, but not between proximal and distal splenorenal shunts. In conclusion, shunt surgeries were more efficient than devascularization in diminishing variceal size.

Fiscal dynamics and electoral behavior in the Eurozone

Abstract: The Stability Growth Pact and the 3% rule did not prevent countries from running large deficits. Countries in the EMU administrate fiscal policies differently, despite the existence of a common quantitative goal. The main focus of this work project is to study differences in the fiscal dynamics of eight EMU countries and assess the role of political variables in shaping those dynamics. We find that elections negatively affect government revenue in Austria, Belgium, Portugal, Spain and Germany. Expenditure, on the other hand, responds positively to incoming elections in Portugal, Italy, France and Netherlands, and negatively in the case of Germany.

The role of guarantees in pension plan design: Pension saving decisions

This study centers on the assessment of psychological value of guarantees in pension products and the behavior biases associated with choice. When a guarantee on a product increases from 99% to 99,5% less than half of respondents show willingness to pay in contrast with 73% when going from 99,5% to 100%. Out of 105 respondents, 55 show that their choices concerning pension products are inconsistent with classic utility theory. Financial background proves insignificant thus pointing to behavioral biases. As individuals make choices that leave them worse-off, we argue that pension plan design would highly benefit from public policy interventions.

Habitat preferences, diet, feeding strategy and social organization of the black spider monkey [Ateles paniscus paniscus Linnaeus 1758] in Surinam

A Socioecological Field Study.This monograph reports on a 26 month socioecological study of black spider monkeys (Ateles paniscus paniscus)in the Raleigh-vallen — Voltzberg Nature Reserve, Surinam. It recognizes the fundamental importance of food to the behavior and the regulation of population density fox this primate. It clarifies the complex temporal and spatial effects of tropical rain forest food sources on the behavior of a group of spider monkeys, concentrating on food category, food plant identity and phenology, and quantity, density and dispersion of the most important food sources. In addition, the present study describes habitat choice, optimal feeding strategy and sexual behavior of the spider monkey, and discusses implications of diet for social behavior. This study is also fundamental to conservation. Specialized in eating mature fruits, the spider monkey is a very important dispersal agent for many trees and lianes, particularly canopy species. However, the spider monkey is probably the most vulnerable monkey species in Surinam and it is disappearing rapidly throughout the remainder of its range. Unfortunately, it is large and noisy and can be easily tracked and hunted. It is largely restricted to undisturbed high forest, and consequently habitat destruction has more effect on it than on most other species. Together with its slow reproductive rate (a female gives birth only once every four or five years), this means that the species is poorly adapted to recover from exploitation. In order to implement proper measures for conservation, data on forest type preferences, diet and social behavior of the species, or on closely related species, in undisturbed areas, such as the one described in this monograph, are essential tools for assessing the potential of proposed protected areas.

Engineering bio-based polymers using alternative solvents and processes

The work presented in this thesis explores novel routes for the processing of bio-based polymers, developing a sustainable approach based on the use of alternative solvents such as supercritical carbon dioxide (scCO2), ionic liquids (ILs) and deep eutectic solvents (DES). The feasibility to produce polymeric foams via supercritical fluid (SCF) foaming, combined with these solvents was assessed, in order to replace conventional foaming techniques that use toxic and harmful solvents. A polymer processing methodology is presented, based on SCF foaming and using scCO2 as a foaming agent. The SCF foaming of different starch based polymeric blends was performed, namely starch/poly(lactic acid) (SPLA) and starch/poly(ε-caprolactone) (SPCL). The foaming process is based on the fact that CO2 molecules can dissolve in the polymer, changing their mechanical properties and after suitable depressurization, are able to create a foamed (porous) material. In these polymer blends, CO2 presents limited solubility and in order to enhance the foaming effect, two different imidazolium based ILs (IBILs) were combined with this process, by doping the blends with IL. The use of ILs proved useful and improved the foaming effect in these starch-based polymer blends. Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR-ATR) proved the existence of interactions between the polymer blend SPLA and ILs, which in turn diminish the forces that hold the polymeric structure. This is directly related with the ability of ILs to dissolve more CO2. This is also clear from the sorption experiments results, where the obtained apparent sorption coefficients in presence of IL are higher compared to the ones of the blend SPLA without IL. The doping of SPCL with ILs was also performed. The foaming of the blend was achieved and resulted in porous materials with conductivity values close to the ones of pure ILs. This can open doors to applications as self-supported conductive materials. A different type of solvents were also used in the previously presented processing method. If different applications of the bio-based polymers are envisaged, replacing ILs must be considered, especially due to the poor sustainability of some ILs and the fact that there is not a well-established toxicity profile. In this work natural DES – NADES – were the solvents of choice. They present some advantages relatively to ILs since they are easy to produce, cheaper, biodegradable and often biocompatible, mainly due to the fact that they are composed of primary metabolites such as sugars, carboxylic acids and amino-acids. NADES were prepared and their physicochemical properties were assessed, namely the thermal behavior, conductivity, density, viscosity and polarity. With this study, it became clear that these properties can vary with the composition of NADES, as well as with their initial water content. The use of NADES in the SCF foaming of SPCL, acting as foaming agent, was also performed and proved successful. The SPCL structure obtained after SCF foaming presented enhanced characteristics (such as porosity) when compared with the ones obtained using ILs as foaming enhancers. DES constituted by therapeutic compounds (THEDES) were also prepared. The combination of choline chloride-mandelic acid, and menthol-ibuprofen, resulted in THEDES with thermal behavior very distinct from the one of their components. The foaming of SPCL with THEDES was successful, and the impregnation of THEDES in SPCL matrices via SCF foaming was successful, and a controlled release system was obtained in the case of menthol-ibuprofen THEDES.

Simulation of humidity fields in concrete: experimental validation and parameter estimation

The moisture content in concrete structures has an important influence in their behavior and performance. Several vali-dated numerical approaches adopt the governing equation for relative humidity fields proposed in Model Code 1990/2010. Nevertheless there is no integrative study which addresses the choice of parameters for the simulation of the humidity diffusion phenomenon, particularly in concern to the range of parameters forwarded by Model Code 1990/2010. A software based on a Finite Difference Method Algorithm (1D and axisymmetric cases) is used to perform sensitivity analyses on the main parameters in a normal strength concrete. Then, based on the conclusions of the sensi-tivity analyses, experimental results from nine different concrete compositions are analyzed. The software is used to identify the main material parameters that better fit the experimental data. In general, the model was able to satisfactory fit the experimental results and new correlations were proposed, particularly focusing on the boundary transfer coeffi-cient.

Mortars with incorporation of PCM based in different binders: mechanical and thermal behavior

Currently we are witnessing a huge concern of society with the parameters of comfort of the buildings and the energetic consumptions. It is known that there is a huge consumption of non-renewable sources of energy. Thus, it is urgent to develop and explore ways to take advantage of renewable sources of energy by improving the energy efficiency of buildings. The mortars with incorporation of phase change materials (PCM) have the ability to regulate the temperature inside buildings, contributing to the thermal comfort and reduction of the use of heating and cooling equipment, using only the energy supplied by the sun. However, the incorporation of phase change materials in mortars modifies its characteristics. The main purpose of this study was mechanical and thermal characterization of mortars with incorporation of PCM in mortars based in different binders. The binders studied were aerial lime, hydraulic lime, gypsum and cement. For each type of binder a reference composition (0% PCM) and a composition with incorporation of 40% of PCM were developed. It was possible to observe that the incorporation of PCM in mortars caused differences in properties such as workability, compressive strength, flexural strength and adhesion, however leads to an improvement of thermal behavior.

Influence of the wood mechanical properties in the dovetail joint behavior

The force distribution inside a dovetail joint is complex. Wood is simultaneously loaded in different directions in the several connected surfaces. The analytical solutions available for the analysis of the behavior of those carpentry joints rely on the mechanical properties of wood. In particular, the stiffness properties of wood under compression are crucial for the forces equilibrium. Simulations showed that the stiffness values considered in each of the springs normally assumed in the analytical models, have great influence in the bearing capacity and stiffness of the dovetail joints, with important consequence on the stress distribution over the overall structure. In a wide experimental campaign, the properties under compression of the most common wood species of existing timber structures have been determined. Then, a solved example of a dovetail joint is presented assuming different wood species and the corresponding strength and stiffness properties values obtained in the tests.

Automatic visual detection of human behavior: a review from 2000 to 2014

Due to advances in information technology (e.g., digital video cameras, ubiquitous sensors), the automatic detection of human behaviors from video is a very recent research topic. In this paper, we perform a systematic and recent literature review on this topic, from 2000 to 2014, covering a selection of 193 papers that were searched from six major scientific publishers. The selected papers were classified into three main subjects: detection techniques, datasets and applications. The detection techniques were divided into four categories (initialization, tracking, pose estimation and recognition). The list of datasets includes eight examples (e.g., Hollywood action). Finally, several application areas were identified, including human detection, abnormal activity detection, action recognition, player modeling and pedestrian detection. Our analysis provides a road map to guide future research for designing automatic visual human behavior detection systems.

Out-of-plane behavior of masonry infill walls

In order to investigate the out-of-plane behaviour of masonry infill walls, quasi-static testing was performed on a masonry infill walls built inside a reinforced concrete frame by means of an airbag system to apply the uniform out-of-plane load to each component of the infill. The main advantage of this testing setup is that the out-of-plane loading can be applied more uniformly in the walls, contrarily to point load configuration. The test was performed under displacement control by selecting the mid-point of the infill as control point. Input and output air in the airbag was controlled by using a software to apply a specific displacement in the control point of the infill wall. The effect of the distance between the reaction frame of the airbag and the masonry infill on the effective contact area was previously analysed. Four load cells were attached to the reaction frame to measure the out-of-plane force. The effective contact area of the airbag was calculated by dividing the load measured in load cells by the pressure inside the airbag. When the distance between the reaction walls and the masonry infill wall is smaller, the effective area is closer to the nominal area of the airbag. Deformation and crack patterns of the infill confirm the formation of arching mechanism and two-way bending of the masonry infill. Until collapse of the horizontal interface between infill and upper beam in RC frame, the infill bends in two directions but the failure of that interface which is known as weakest interface due to difficulties in filling the mortar between bricks of last row and upper beam results in the crack opening trough a well-defined path and the consequent collapse of the infill.

Traditional timber frame walls: mechanical behavior analysis and retrofitting

Timber frame construction is characteristic of several historic city centres as well as of vernacular architecture in several countries around the world, either motivated by the availability of materials and construction traditions or by the need of reducing the seismic vulnerability of buildings, namely in south European countries, where this construction technique was adopted for seismic-resistance purposes. From past earthquakes, it has been seen that timber frame construction can be viewed as an interesting technology as it has exhibited a very reasonable behaviour when compared to other traditional construction techniques such as masonry walls. This chapter provides an overview of the main insights on the seismic performance of timber frame buildings from the evidences of past earthquakes and provides the main results of recent research focused on the in-plane cyclic behavior of timber frame walls with distinct geometrical configurations. Additionally, the main seismic performance indexes of timber frame walls, both unreinforced and retrofitted, are presented and discussed in detail.